Why are crowd levels so off this week?

[Shanti]

Where are you getting your info that yesterday was a "10"? Whose crowd calendar are you using? It's all relative. Touring Plans and Josh mean different things when assigning a number to a crowd level. Same for UT. It's a very inexact science.

It's not a science at all. The crowd calendars are guesswork. These posters have been sharing their actual, current experiences in the parks, which is a much more valuable contribution than any of the crowd calendars, which have failed to make reasonably accurate predictions for the past few years.

 

[aretha30]

I don't understand the fear about the crowd levels. Sure when its super crowded, you may not be able to do everything and you may wait a little longer, but I never go to WDW expecting to see everything. That's why I keep coming back. If the crowd level is a 5 or a 10, I will just deal with what is there. I am certainly not going to stress over it.

This! We go in August and we expect it to be busy, crowded, and hot! We buy hoppers so we aren't stuck in a park and can go somewhere else after we've done what we wanted to do. We don't have the mind set of we can't or won't wait a certain time for something (if our kids want to wait 60 minutes we will). We also know that missing one attraction won't make or break our vacation. I can't imagine the stress that must put on the time with your family. We go with the flow (as much as you can), if we miss something we will hit it another day or next time we come. We try not to look at the crowd calendars for much more then a place to start. Which parks are green, yellow, red for the day. This helps me plan, we know that really they could all be red levels for the day. Going in early August we know that it is peek season and that means major crowds. We plan for 10's and it's less great!

 

[summerw]

It's been very crowded. I agree I've seen and talked to A LOT of British people. However the crowds haven't affected what we wanted to get done because of good planning. However it is more tiring dodging people in crowded parks. Just plan your days and plan breaks and the rest will be a minor annoyance.

 

[JimmyV]

It's not a science at all. The crowd calendars are guesswork

I suppose that depends on whether statistical analysis is science or guesswork. What TP does is take years (more than a decade) of data, analyzing the wait times at each attraction throughout the day to predict what will happen this year. For the Spring season, they will look at the data they found for the exact calendar date; the overall trends for the first week of April; the data for second week after Easter, (irrespective of when Easter falls); and specifically the data for the first week of April when Easter fell in the third week of March. Using all of that "past performance" data, they make a prediction for this year. I am not a statistician so I don't know if this amounts to "science." But it seems that it is more than guesswork. Regardless, the first week of April seems to be outpacing prior years.

Question: Are the increased crowds being experienced at all 4 parks or mainly at MK? Could the fact that DHS is half-closed be moving people over to the MK more so than predicted? It might be that WDW has no more people than predicted, but that they are redistributed differently. And how does one assign a crowd level number to DHS with half the park closed? There could be half as many total people there but the wait times could be longer than normal after you close down crowd eaters like LMA and the Backlot Tour.

 

[kandb]

I don't understand the fear about the crowd levels. Sure when its super crowded, you may not be able to do everything and you may wait a little longer, but I never go to WDW expecting to see everything. That's why I keep coming back. If the crowd level is a 5 or a 10, I will just deal with what is there. I am certainly not going to stress over it.

It's not fear about the crowd levels but many people don't enjoy spending 2 hours waiting for a 3 minute ride, waiting in line for the bathroom, waiting in long lines to get food, and then having to wait an hour before a parade starts to get a decent seat or they will not be able to see the parade. Many people spend thousands of dollars on their vacation and they don't want to deal with all the above that come with high crowds.

 

[kandb]

Josh also reported yesterday that they were only running one side of Primeval Whirl, which had a 40 minute wait. I've also seen various reports of them only running one side of Dumbo all week. Higher than expected crowds coupled with capacity cuts would make for a long wait times.

That's ridiculous. Why not run whatever ride they can to shorten wait times. That really is unfair of Disney to do. People are spending thousands of dollars, they should make their experience as pleasant as possible.

 

[dachsie]

It's not fear about the crowd levels but many people don't enjoy spending 2 hours waiting for a 3 minute ride, waiting in line for the bathroom, waiting in long lines to get food, and then having to wait an hour before a parade starts to get a decent seat or they will not be able to see the parade. Many people spend thousands of dollars on their vacation and they don't want to deal with all the above that come with high crowds.

Isn't that why we plan out the wazoo? I think some people have unrealistic expectations. JMHO

 

[JimmyV]

Isn't that why we plan out the wazoo? I think some people have unrealistic expectations. JMHO

A large part of that "out the wazoo" planning is deciding which week to go. And crowd level predictions play a large role in that. People who chose a week that was predicted to be a 3-5 only to arrive and find it to be an 8-10, (or worse yet, find that it is a 5 with rides running at half capacity making the park feel like a 10) are going to be bummed.

 

[capegirl]

From reading various threads, it seems as though crowd levels have been higher at MK. I saw a photo of FL posted this week, and it was body to body near 'It's a small world'. I think it is an ongoing trend due in part to DAK and DHS construction, not to mention one of the most popular attractions at EPCOT, Soarin' is also down. I also think crowd levels at MK really increased with the opening of BOG, Anna & Elsa M&G, and 7DMT. When we were in the MK last April we noticed very large crowds at RD compared with previous years, so there are many factors contributing to these large crowds, as well as the staff cuts. When Anna & Elsa move to their new home in Norway, perhaps it will lighten up the MK crowds a little, but who knows. Until the dust settles in DAK, DHS, and EPCOT, I do not think any crowd predictions will be totally accurate.

 

[supamaki]

I'm not feeling so crazy for shelling out $150 for the late night Magic Kingdom event now.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Question: Are the increased crowds being experienced at all 4 parks or mainly at MK? Could the fact that DHS is half-closed be moving people over to the MK more so than predicted? It might be that WDW has no more people than predicted, but that they are redistributed differently. And how does one assign a crowd level number to DHS with half the park closed? There could be half as many total people there but the wait times could be longer than normal after you close down crowd eaters like LMA and the Backlot Tour.

That's what I thought too but looking at the TP predictions versus the "How Did We Do" results the other day, each park was predicted to be 2 points lower than it actually was. If it were more people going to MK instead of Epcot and HS, I would expect to see those predictions being higher than the actual numbers. I'm sure there's some of that, but it's not the whole story.

I think capacity of rides and overall attendance are bigger factors, this week, anyway. Dear Disney, if you want these types of crowds to continue (and business wise, you do), then open both sides of all rides when you have high attendance.

 

[twodogs]

I also feel badly for those that truly only go once to WDW. They can't say "we will relax and take what we get when the crowds are unpredictably high, and we will just hit the rest of the stuff on our next trip".

 

[scrappingbuckeye]

Honestly I think that spring break time is one of the hardest time to predict. Unless you study all of the school districts and know when most people have break, it's all guesswork. Historically most breaks are the week before and after Easter. With Easter being so early this year it's not shocking that some school districts are after that time period. I think it will continue to be busier than expected next week as well.

While it stinks that it's busier than some people expected it to be, I'm not shocked by it.

 

[DisneyPiPhi]

Yes, all the parks were very busy this week. Many more people than when we traveled in May last year.

Disney seemed unprepared for the crowds. Several cast members told me that Disney prepped for low crowds this week and got caught off guard.

I will say this improved later in the week. MK was better on Thursday than Tuesday, for example.

 

[Alicenwonderment]

Not sure about now but we were surprised that a lot of things were booked and not available (restaurants, hotels, and FP's) for our trip the week after next. Chicago schools will be on break the 18th - 22nd.

I didn't read all the posts but MA schools have the 18th -22nd and NH has the week off after Mass for spring break.

 

[JimmyV]

Honestly I think that spring break time is one of the hardest time to predict. Unless you study all of the school districts and know when most people have break, it's all guesswork.

But frankly, that isn't all that difficult to do. If one makes their living predicting crowd levels, two hours and an Internet connection is all it would take to figure out the national trends.

Historically most breaks are the week before and after Easter. With Easter being so early this year it's not shocking that some school districts are after that time period.

This is regional. The northeastern states that were on break last week or still have upcoming breaks all pretty much have static vacation schedules and don't plan them around Easter. For example, they have their break during the second week of April, or the third week of April, and this holds true every year irrespective of when Easter falls. In some years this lines up with Easter. But in many years it does not. It's actually a minority of years when the vacations touch Easter on either end. This year was not out of the ordinary. And the northeast accounts for a significant percentage of WDW guests.

 

[han22735]

Isn't that why we plan out the wazoo? I think some people have unrealistic expectations. JMHO

Of course "we"as in visitors who read the Dis and other blogs plan...I had 2 co-workers and their families head to disney last week without plans at all. No ADR's and barely any FP. Im guessing the majority of guests are that way.

 

[DebbieB]

I suppose that depends on whether statistical analysis is science or guesswork. What TP does is take years (more than a decade) of data, analyzing the wait times at each attraction throughout the day to predict what will happen this year. For the Spring season, they will look at the data they found for the exact calendar date; the overall trends for the first week of April; the data for second week after Easter, (irrespective of when Easter falls); and specifically the data for the first week of April when Easter fell in the third week of March. Using all of that "past performance" data, they make a prediction for this year. I am not a statistician so I don't know if this amounts to "science." But it seems that it is more than guesswork. Regardless, the first week of April seems to be outpacing prior years.

Question: Are the increased crowds being experienced at all 4 parks or mainly at MK? Could the fact that DHS is half-closed be moving people over to the MK more so than predicted? It might be that WDW has no more people than predicted, but that they are redistributed differently. And how does one assign a crowd level number to DHS with half the park closed? There could be half as many total people there but the wait times could be longer than normal after you close down crowd eaters like LMA and the Backlot Tour.

I wouldn't call DHS half closed. Backlot Tour hasn't had long lines for years. I don't know how full LMA was, I saw it once after it opened and that was enough. The main attractions are still open - TSMM, RnR, ToT, GMR, Star Tours, Indiana Jones, Fantasmic.

 

[JimmyV]

I wouldn't call DHS half closed. Backlot Tour hasn't had long lines for years. I don't know how full LMA was, I saw it once after it opened and that was enough. The main attractions are still open - TSMM, RnR, ToT, GMR, Star Tours, Indiana Jones, Fantasmic.

You are thinking about "main attractions" in terms that don't equate to crowd absorption. You may not have loved LMA. But during the times that a show was going on, plus/minus a half hour on either side, it occupied 20% of the people in the park. And the lack of a line at the Backlot Tour didn't stop each tour from having hundreds of people on each tour/tram. The crowds would build slowly over time giving the appearance of no line. But the tours kept lots of people occupied at any one time. The ride capacity at TSMM is under 1,000 people per hour assuming no breakdowns during the day. When you take 3,000-4,500 people out of the LMA theater and 400 or so people out of the Backlot Tour, that is going to make a significant impact on the rides that can only process 900-1,500 people per hour.

 

[AtlantaDisneyDreamer]

I don't know the levels, I was guessing that if the day was supposed to be a 7 but the crowds are much bigger than usual, it's probably closer to 10. In previous weeks the days that were given a 7 had 5-10 minute waits on the less popular rides but yesterday on a day that was supposed to be a 7 had 20-30 minutes for those same rides. I'm just trying to figure out if the Disney app has accurate wait times regardless of the crowd levels on any given day.

Not at all. Posted wait times were really off this week.

At MK, with a posted wait of 30 minutes, we waited an hour and ten minutes for Dumbo. We only stayed because it was the only ride request from my 3 year old and she was so excited. Lots of very angry people, complaining that they were missing FP and dining reservations.

Under the Sea had a posted wait of 20 minutes. It was walk on.

ETWB had a posted wait time of 20 minutes (both app and ride posted wait). We waited for 40.

Thursday night BTMRR had a posted wait of 45 minutes. It was walk on.

Saturday morning Kali River had a posted wait of 40 minutes. It was walk on.

While it is a nice surprise when a posted wait is less than expected, I always wonder which rides I have walked by that I chose to skip because of a posted wait but that I could have ridden if I had know the actual wait time.