Who thinks Saratoga Springs is overpriced at $95?

[LoveMyDVC]

When will the craziness end with the price per point? It's gone up significantly in just the past 4 years.

 

[gazeborob]

4 Years?? Heck, that is $25 more than I paid just 2 years ago. I am sure some out there has the complete history of the price increase that they could post for us.

I do think that it is climbing a bit fast, but people are buying. The old price and demand.

 

[Disney Doll]

It is getting rather expensive!!!!! I am glad we bought when we did, and for a good price!

 

[HookdonWDW]

Well, it won't really be overpriced until people are no longer willing to pay the asking price... and I think that people will still buy into DVC at the higher price, although perhaps not as quickly.

All I know is that I am REALLY GLAD that we already own!

 

[DebbieB]

Interesting question. It doesn't have the large rooms of OKW. It isn't within walking distance of 2 parks like BWV or BCV. Not near MK like VWL. The major advantage is the 12 extra years and close to Downtown Disney/Pleasure Island. Is that worth $30 more a point (48% more) than I paid 4 1/2 years ago for BWV? Is it worth that much more than a resale elsewhere (in the $70 range)? I don't see it. I think DVC maybe getting greedy, milking the cash cow. It will be interesting to see how sales go.

 

[Nick@ VB+OKW]

Originally posted by gazeborob
I am sure some out there has the complete history of the price increase that they could post for us.

Here is average point price per year adjusted using all the great detail PamOKW has collected:

DVCI
1991 $48.94
1992 $52.88
1993 $56.75
1994 $59.30
1995 $62.13
1996 $62.75
1997 $62.75
1998 $62.75
1999 $65.00
2000 $66.25
2001 $73.55
2002 $78.25
2003 $84.00
2004 $84.00

DVCII
2003 $89.00 ($79 with pre-opening offer)
2004 $89.00 ($84 with current offer I believe)

 

[SSRex]

I bought into DVC in October 2003 @ $79/point before the Magic beginning was required to get that price. I had thought of maybe adding on after our first trip in July of this year, but not at $95.00

And I do not think it should have increased at all or this much even before it is open for anyone to see. The extra time given to memebers to avoid the price increase shoiuld have at least gone until the Member Homecoming & SSR Grand Opening in late May.

I'd hoped to someday also buy at another resort if any more are built, like an Eagle Pines or Contemporary Wing, but what might the price be by the time those are ever built. Probably too much.

 

[Goofyzgurl]

I'm just glad that I bought when I did, because dh would've flipped if I tried to come at him with $95 pp. I do think it's getting expensive. Of course when I bought at $70something pp I thought that was expensive too.

 

[Desperado]

Yep.

 

[disneycrazed139]

Glad I bought when I did. It's amazing how a couple of months changes everything. It will be $100 per point by next year.

 

[OneMoreTry]

The points seem to be far outpacing inflation. Am I right? Even the housing market.

Do you think Disney may be cashing in on the low interest rates? Ie. many buyers look at the monthly payment. If interest is low, they can tolerate a higher principal.

 

[KNWVIKING]

.... but after thinking about it I'm not so sure. When you consider they were selling BCV for the same price as SSR when SSR went on sale, then SSR was a huge bargain because you were buying 20-25 percent more years then those chosing BCV. Now that virtually all the 2042 points are sold, bumping SSR to $95.00 makes sense.

However...... I still think 95 is too high. But if people keep buying at that price, who am I to complain ?

 

[MrShiny]

If you look at that history, this is not the biggest jump in price:

1991 $49
1992 $53 8%
1993 $57 7%
1994 $59 4%
1995 $62 5%
1996 $63 1%
1997 $63 0%
1998 $63 0%
1999 $65 4%
2000 $66 2%
2001 $74 11%
2002 $78 6%
2003 $84 7%
2004 $84 0%
2003 $89 6%
2004 $95 7%

If it did just increase at the rate of inflation (say 3%), the price would be $76.25.

However with DVC II do get the more years and the ability to book at a wider variety of resorts.

Hmm. To get a studio at BCV would cost 6,431 points for an entire year. Let's say the average rack rate is $500 for that room. So one night costs you on average 6,431/365=17.62 points. So each point is worth about $500/17.62 = $28.38

So figure a discount rate of 10% (not unresaonable over a long time frame). The present value of getting $28.38 a year for 37 years is $275, and the present value for 50 years is $281. So that means the DVC I points should be worth about 2% less than DVC II - which is not the case.

Either way, though, the value is much greater than the price. Even assuming you just rented out all your points each year at $10. That means 1 point would give you $10/year for 37 of 50 years:
PV for 37: $97
PV for 50: $99

Still below (just barely!) the current price. And if you think you'll never get 10% return on your money again, then it's an even better buy (lower discount rate means higher pv).

 

[macca_uk]

Its not just interest rates that are tempting new buyers - don't forget the dollar rate is 1.8$ to the £ ( and experts say it may even reach $2 to £1 by end of year).

Maybe Disney are cashing in whilst the goings good. They will have doen a lot of research before this recent price hike, and they must believe this latest increase is achievable.

 

[vernon]

With so few investments returning a decent rate of interest (bonds, deposits or the stock market) I think that it's very tempting for "cash rich" people to take advantage of something like DVC and to treat it as an "investment" that pays for their future vacations. If looked in that vein I think that even at $95 DVCII shows a decent rate of return. Certainly better than any of the three instruments I mentioned above.

With low interest rates, the vacation market returning to boost hotel rates and cut the number of heavy discounting in hotel rack rates DVC continues to show value, even if it is, comparitively more expensive now that it was a few years ago (but it does offer a longer tenure)

 

[Pa@okw95]

SSR is the first real DVC built at WDW since OKW. The other three were just attachments to a resort that was in place already. That is the reason for the higher costs. It is my belief they will sell a lot slower. I think DVC was really underpriced for years and in recent years it has been sold as a savings, which in some peoples minds it is, it never should have been sold so low in price, but when you are turning WDW into a "value" filled resort, I don't think they had much choice.

 

[BEACHCLUBVILLAS]

Definitely overpriced.

No add on for me.

 

[tjkraz]

Supply and demand.

Personally, I really thought they would hold the $89 price point after elimination of the $5 incentive, and see if it caused sales to slow. You're really looking at an $11 price jump, from $84 to $95.

But it could be that sales are SO good they couldn't help but raise the price. By the end of February, we saw people on these boards reporting they bought into Building #3. If #1 and 2 are completely sold out, that means they sold 1/6th of the resort in just 7 months.

This is PURELY speculation, but it could be that they actually need to SLOW sales while developing a new property. DVC certainly doesn't want to get into a position again where they have NOTHING to sell for almost a year, as was the case after BCV sold-out last fall. If they can continue to sell a building every 3 mos, SSR could be sold-out by the end of 2006. That gives them about 2 1/2 years from now to get a new property open. And since SSR took about 2 years to develop with a lot of infrastructure already in place, they would probably need to start moving on another resort very soon.

Again, completely speculation...

 

[jarestel]

2 years from now with the price at $???, people will be posting how glad they were to have been shrewd enough to buy in when the price was only $95.

 

[DiznEeyore]

All I can say is when I told my dh that points are now $95, he said, "Well, we'll never own more DVC points." I can't say I disagree. I'm glad we bought VWL when we did 'cuz the pricing is now out of our very middle-class league.