Where is the DVC market going?

[disney dumbo]

The early resorts may start to drift, but I doubt by a whole lot. It really depends if you adjust for inflation. If you look at a raw number, the number will likely not decrease all that much, even at the very end. Of course, once you adjust for inflation, that "number" will not be worth what it is today.

All that said, there is still 35 years left on the early resorts.
I think the 'ole fellas have a few good years left in them before we send 'em out to pasture...

MG

I agree! The resorts obviously will have a more complicated price structure... tied to years left, theme popularity, MF... but I believe they all will continue to rise in price.

What effects DVC vacation spending in a negative way?
gas prices? most people will still save money other ways to go on a vacation.
terrorism? maybe you wouldn't travel out of the US... or fly... or cruise... but many people would still drive to Disney with hopes that Disney has upgraded security.
a Disney problem? Disney has too much invested... with hopefully enough safe guards to insure any problem would be kept minimal.

I certainly hope none of the above happens!

What effects DVC vacation spending in a positive way?
baby boomers! they are retiring... wanting to take money out of the stock market or retirement accounts... and having more time to enjoy vacations... more time to be cautious with money... and selective enough to enjoy superior accommodations.
economy! seems that more people these days have more money to spend than ever... wish I knew how that's done!
fear of terrorism! same song... different verse... may not go out of US... but still want a vacation. May not go to Africa... but sure can go to AKV!
Disney being Disney! More vacation diversity per acre than any place on Earth. I canNOT imagine it slowing down.
secret getting out! I know Disney likes to market this way... but I REALLY believe it to be true. I was one of those brainwashed people that thought timeshare purchases were a bad way to spend money. I avoided the DVC booth forever. I'm a scam-a-phobic. Only through this board did I learn the wonderful benefits!!!

DVC is a very unique situation. Disney's ROFR I'm sure helps support the price. Disney being in the hotel business... they aren't going to let a great deal get by them. They can buy the contracts and rent them and make money! Then sell them again when they get their price. It's win-win for them.

And for some strange reason... if we are in the club... I believe it's win-win for us too!

 

[Budshark]

secret getting out! I know Disney likes to market this way... but I REALLY believe it to be true. I was one of those brainwashed people that thought timeshare purchases were for idiots. I avoided the DVC booth forever. I'm a scam-a-phobic. Only through this board did I learn the wonderful benefits!!!

This is funny to me because this was my exact attitude...

We went in February for my first time ever (I'm a left coaster so I only knew Disneyland).

Kept seeing DVC booths and signs. Kept thinking SCAM SCAM SCAM. Then one day at MGM my wife and daughter went to the bathroom and I walked over to the booth... interesting. That night, went to DTD and looked at the booth by the Lego shop. Hmm, interesting, but SCAM! Has to be a catch.

When we got home they called and we let them send us the information - liking the no pressure approach, maybe not a scam. Got the detail, did the math, called some family, and bought last night. Its unique in the approach. We get what we want (more time at Disney in comfortable, spacious on property rooms) and they get what they want (more traffic from us and spending in the parks and restaurant).

Everyone Wins!

Except that part where we keep saying we should've done this sooner... And I still think the older resorts will have their price protected and when you get less than 10 years it will be known what options owners will have when their contracts expire (and I'm sure they will be enticing options...)

Chris

 

[Dean]

I think it's interesting how many members are naive enough to think the 2042 resorts will hold their value even until 10 years out. As for the idea that DVC wants these rooms to rent out, I doubt that's reality. They can only rent about 75% of the ones they get now. The only way they could boost that would be to use their points to reserve high demand times.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

I think it's interesting how many members are naive enough to think the 2042 resorts will hold their value even until 10 years out. As for the idea that DVC wants these rooms to rent out, I doubt that's reality. They can only rent about 75% of the ones they get now. The only way they could boost that would be to use their points to reserve high demand times.

Please don't beat around the bush. If you think I'm wrong, say so.
We have gone round about this before, and I'm happy to go again.

You see Dean, as long as I've been on these boards, I've never seen any give on your side. If the search function worked, I would find the post where you "scolded" me for a differing opinion.

You know, you have a lot of knowledge, and provide a lot of good, useful info here, but you are not ALWAYS right.
Once you make your mind up on something, Jesus himself could descend from the heavens to dispute you, and somehow you would spin a rule to support your viewpoint.

Just a little friendly advice: Other people here are pretty smart too; You are not the only one.
At somepoint, you might want to give a little credence to others viewpoints.

Perhaps you would have made a good lawyer istead of a physician..
(Not implying you are not a good physician. I'm sure you are good with that profession as well).

MG

 

[Dean]

Please don't beat around the bush. If you think I'm wrong, say so.
We have gone round about this before, and I'm happy to go again.

You see Dean, as long as I've been on these boards, I've never seen any give on your side. If the search function worked, I would find the post where you "scolded" me for a differing opinion.

You know, you have a lot of knowledge, and provide a lot of good, useful info here, but you are not ALWAYS right.
Once you make your mind up on something, Jesus himself could descend from the heavens to dispute you, and somehow you would spin a rule to support your viewpoint.

Just a little friendly advice: Other people here are pretty smart too; You are not the only one.
At somepoint, you might want to give a little credence to others viewpoints.

Perhaps you would have made a good lawyer istead of a physician..
(Not implying you are not a good physician. I'm sure you are good with that profession as well).

MG

I apologize if it came across that way, my post wasn't aimed at you but more at the general tone of both this and past similar threads. One is entitled to believe anything they want and one is entitled to think those belief's are right or wrong. But one of the problems is that many of the members here know nothing but DVC and what's posted on this board, hardly a well rounded view. Many also are blinded by Disney and DVC in general. If I feel I'm correct and have more knowledge than most here, what should I say? As far as changing my mind, I don't set my mind without real information and if hard evidence is provided to the contrary, I'll gladly change my mind.

 

[ebenmax]

I am going to change the subject a bit but it still relates to the topic. . .
How do you think CRV (if it happens) will impact VWL. I know lots of people love VWL just because they love the theming and other features, but I am sure that there are others who love it for its location to MK. Do you think CRV will have an adverse effect on VWL's value?

Just wondering. . .

Ellen

 

[Dean]

I am going to change the subject a bit but it still relates to the topic. . .
How do you think CRV (if it happens) will impact VWL. I know lots of people love VWL just because they love the theming and other features, but I am sure that there are others who love it for its location to MK. Do you think CRV will have an adverse effect on VWL's value?

Just wondering. . .

Ellen

As I've posted before, it is my opinion that any destination resort with a later expiration will negatively affect prices of all the 2042 resorts. They will highlight the difference in expiration and over time likely drive down the prices of all the 2042 resorts faster than would have happened without the later resorts. Of course there are other factors such as the economy, demand of the resort, availability of contracts, ROFR prices and the age of the resort which translates to a degree into the price paid.

 

[disney dumbo]

I think it's interesting how many members are naive enough to think the 2042 resorts will hold their value even until 10 years out. As for the idea that DVC wants these rooms to rent out, I doubt that's reality. They can only rent about 75% of the ones they get now. The only way they could boost that would be to use their points to reserve high demand times.

Guess I'm a full-fledged member of the DVC Naive Club!

I am definitely naive enough to think 75% rental is a good occupancy rate for Disney (if you own any resort rental properties... you'd probably be pleased at 75% too). Just think about all that extra money Disney gets from people staying in those villas... Add in their option to sell anytime... Disney is super smart!

Then simple minded (I'll give you another name to call me) naive me... I just have to divide it out... $98point/10yrs= $9.80 x 12(lowest studio pt/night)= $117.60

No way to guess what MF will be... can only use todays which all are under $5 x 12/pts/studio = $60.00 Total cost for DVC member $177.60/studio

No way to guess what room rates will be... can only use todays... $354.00

Let's see... if DVC will not hold it's value at 10 years out... then MF would have to increase 294% without room rates going up at all.

Now would that make me 294% naive???

 

[squidmo]

I think the outcome in 2042 will depend on whether Disney is still selling new properties at that time. If they are, I think they would pretty much have to offer some sort of attractive repurchase offer to current members, and this would keep prices steady, or slowly declining on the older contracts. Otherwise the reality of contracts expiring would cause potential members at the new properties to think twice about purchasing. However, if Disney stops building new resorts, then whenever they discontinue ROFR, I would expect prices to drop dramatically. My guess is that at this point, even Disney doesn’t know which way things will go. I think it will depend on whether they really decide to take the jump into the larger world (there is a limit to how much they can expand in WDW, and even DL), and how it ends up working out for them.

 

[JimC]

Help I can't find the link. I'd love to see this chart. Please let me know!! Thanks, Michele

Here is a point pricing history.

 

[disney dumbo]

Article in LA Times mentions possible new park, additional DVC, speciality park like Discovery Cove in Orlando. Also mentions additional DVC resorts being considered in Anaheim, Hawaii, Mexico and the Caribbean.

"Is Disney Ready to Make Big Thunder"

http://www.latimes.com/news/printed....story?page=1&coll=la-headlines-pe-california

Great article posted on the DVC-Mousecellaneous board that lends itself to this discussion too.

Here's a few interesting quotes from the newspaper article:

"In Anaheim, there's no shortage of demand. Disney's three hotels — the original Disneyland Hotel, Paradise Pier and the Grand Californian — are operating at an extraordinary 93% occupancy. Citywide occupancy rates hover around 72%."

"Among the first additions to a revamped resort is likely to be the Disney Vacation Club, which allows members to buy into time-share properties. Minimum membership is $16,400. Disney has eight locations either built or under construction, including six at Walt Disney World, and others in Vero Beach, Fla., and Hilton Head, S.C. Membership has doubled since 2000, with more than 108,000 member families.

"We feel confident that there is still room to grow," Jay Rasulo, chairman of Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, said in a recent speech to investors. "The time-share industry is huge and expanding, and families will still look to Disney when they think of their vacations."

In addition to Anaheim, Hawaii, Mexico and the Caribbean have been mentioned as potential new destinations."

Go Disney! "Amaze me" too!!!!!!

 

[Mickmse2002]

It's hard to justify selling to rebuy about the same number of points. Even if you can't get what you want consistently such as SV or BW view at BWV or BCV 2 queens in the second, the price difference is significant.

Dean, sorry for the delay but I did want to get back to this question because I am still looking at options. If I sell my 200 BWV points (which we never use at BWV) at 80'ish a point and can then turn around and buy SSR re-sale at roughly the same price wherein is the price difference? Am I thinking this through the wrong way? It seems to me that the price would be a "wash" and I would get the extra 12 years?

 

[Dean]

Dean, sorry for the delay but I did want to get back to this question because I am still looking at options. If I sell my 200 BWV points (which we never use at BWV) at 80'ish a point and can then turn around and buy SSR re-sale at roughly the same price wherein is the price difference? Am I thinking this through the wrong way? It seems to me that the price would be a "wash" and I would get the extra 12 years?

I think you are looking at it wrong. The price difference is relative of course. In this example you'd have to rebuy SSR at $69-70 per point to "break even" compared to $80 sale price at SSR assuming you went through a broker. The best you could hope to do would be to break even and likely you'd lose a few hundred $$$ and end up with something currently worth less than what you have now. Think of it in reverse. If you owned SSR and wanted to sell to buy BWV, what would the current difference be? Selling BWV simply to rebuy at SSR would not be a smart decision IMO. Look what you can do with BWV points that you cannot do with SSR including BW view and SV including rentals. You can then use your points to stay at SSR almost anytime for essentially any unit type including a 3 BR most of the year. If I were in this situation I'd just hold pat. BWV may still go up a little for a few years and when it starts to fall it will do so slowly unless the bottom drops out of everything. IF I wanted to sell a 2042 resort to rebuy, I'd only do so in limited circumstances. To downsize, as in my case, to move to a resort with a later expiration that also gave me something else I couldn't get otherwise (AKV is the only resort that fits here currently) or to buy at a resort that I simply had to have most every time and couldn't get consistently with what I already owned.

In spite of the price difference, I feel AKV has the best long term return/value potential, CRV will be there too if it happens.

 

[tiaquessa]

OK- As far as I know, the memberships all end around 2042, and 2050? for the SSR. Is Disney planning any new DVC resorts in the near or distant future? Also, what will happen to all the existing DVC resorts after the memberships expire? I was just wondering if they are going to fix them up, and sell them as DVC again.

 

[rinkwide]

...I feel AKV has the best long term return/value potential...

The place is gonna' have some issues: remote location, abundance of rooms, narrower theme appeal, limited dining & entertainment - not to mention you can get deep discounted rates (sub $200) for AKL nearly any time of year. It's return potential will be alright but the Grand Californian will be the real DVC goldmine.

 

[Dean]

The place is gonna' have some issues: remote location, abundance of rooms, narrower theme appeal, limited dining & entertainment - not to mention you can get deep discounted rates (sub $200) for AKL nearly any time of year. It's return potential will be alright but the Grand Californian will be the real DVC goldmine.

Prices are the same as WL almost line for line and room for room. Personally I think you underestimate the demand as a DVC ownership. It tends to have a few more available discounts just because it's larger I think. Side by side with ending dates the same I'd put BCV & BWV as about equal demand with AKV & VWL about the same and just behind. But as it stands now AKV will be the only destination resort with a later ending date and SSR has proven that is a powerful incentive. Time will tell where things layer out.

 

[CarolA]

The place is gonna' have some issues: remote location, abundance of rooms, narrower theme appeal, limited dining & entertainment - not to mention you can get deep discounted rates (sub $200) for AKL nearly any time of year. It's return potential will be alright but the Grand Californian will be the real DVC goldmine.

And will the prices stay that low with the VOLUME of rooms that they are losing? Plus you can't get a Savannah view for the sub $200 rate. Those rooms go for more now trust me I have tried. There are folks like me who won't stay there without a Savannah view!

 

[tomandrobin]

I know that the 2042 end date is set first six disney resorts. I know that the contracts are to expire and revert back to Disney. I can see Disney selling VB and HH at that time, but what about the on-site resorts. What if DVC decides to extend expiration for 25 years, for a fee of course. Or what if DVC starts to limit members of the 2042 resorts to just staying at each respective home resort. Wouldn't either of these scenerios help protect the free fall of prices on the existing resort?

 

[Dean]

I know that the 2042 end date is set first six disney resorts. I know that the contracts are to expire and revert back to Disney. I can see Disney selling VB and HH at that time, but what about the on-site resorts. What if DVC decides to extend expiration for 25 years, for a fee of course. Or what if DVC starts to limit members of the 2042 resorts to just staying at each respective home resort. Wouldn't either of these scenerios help protect the free fall of prices on the existing resort?

It would depend on specifics, in many scenarios the prices would be negatively affected. My initial thought a few years ago was that DVC would offer extensions but after about 6-8 months I changed my mind and remain convinced that this is very unlikely. For DVC to be able to justify it they need to have likely somewhere in the range of 70-80% of the then current members to extend. A percentage likely only possible for a free or token extension, say $10 per point or so. And if extensions are offered, it's likely they'd be no later than the then current ending date, currently 2057. Limiting members to home resort only would negatively affect MOST resorts and contracts, esp OKW, HH, VB and later possibly SSR.

 

[rinkwide]

...as it stands now AKV will be the only destination resort with a later ending date and SSR has proven that is a powerful incentive...

With you to a point, I just think that at WDW, location trumps all.

...And will the prices stay that low with the VOLUME of rooms that they are losing?...

With the entire complex GAINING 500+ units - adjusted for inflation - yes.

...Plus you can't get a Savannah view for the sub $200 rate. Those rooms go for more now trust me I have tried....

I've booked a few AP rates there and every time I've been magically upgraded to savanna. Dumb luck I guess.