Where is bottom?

[TinkB278]

What about 10 year timeshare loans at 12-17%?

 

[Brian Noble]

One thing that always seems to get overlooked when people recommend investing instead of DVC is the income tax on the investment.

I use 7%, which is a decent approximation of the after-tax long term rate-of-return of the SP500 index (w/dividend reinvestment) for earners at "typical" tax rates. I can't remember what MouseSavers uses, but I remember thinking it was in the ballpark of reasonable.

 

[Johtull12]

The x-factor you are forgetting about is dues prices though. Vero Beach, for example, appears to be on a path to become effectively worthless well before the contract expires. And by “worthless” I mean you won’t be able to sell it, you’ll have to try to give it away like all fo the other “worthless” timeshares out there that have very high dues. If the annual dues start to far exceed the rental rate of the points, and especially if the annual dues start to exceed the rack rates, then it goes to zero.

If someone had Vero Beach points, they could always stay at Old Key West or Saratoga until 2042. Those resorts are almost always available. On a 100 point contract dues are approx $350 more a year than Old Key West and $500 more than Saratoga. So an extra $30-41 a month (weekly coffee addiction err... I mean budget for some ) a month isn't that bad, especially if you really like going to Vero. I've never been, but I'm going in April and really looking forward to it. I booked three weeks into the seven month window and could not get a two bedroom. I got a one bedroom, but had to wait list for a studio and inn room. I ended up having to stalk the booking site to pick off one day at a time over a few weeks to get the extra room. I had called the front desk and asked if I could book cash rooms a backup and was told that the mandatory cash rooms that Florida law dictates go very quickly.

 

[Johtull12]

It will be interesting to see if we see some discounts from Disney on the hotels this summer.

 

[JPKanks]

If someone had Vero Beach points, they could always stay at Old Key West or Saratoga until 2042. Those resorts are almost always available. On a 100 point contract dues are approx $350 more a year than Old Key West and $500 more than Saratoga. So an extra $30-41 a month (weekly coffee addiction err... I mean budget for some ) a month isn't that bad, especially if you really like going to Vero. I've never been, but I'm going in April and really looking forward to it. I booked three weeks into the seven month window and could not get a two bedroom. I got a one bedroom, but had to wait list for a studio and inn room. I ended up having to stalk the booking site to pick off one day at a time over a few weeks to get the extra room. I had called the front desk and asked if I could book cash rooms a backup and was told that the mandatory cash rooms that Florida law dictates go very quickly.

I always get a chuckle out of this type of rationalization. You could stay at OKW and SSR without committing to over $100/month in dues. Look at the rental sites. Also, the MFs are going to increase, so in 5-7 years, the difference will be over $430 and $615 respectively.

 

[Disney_David]

Thanks to y’all, and the great advice on this board I pulled the trigger and offered on an AKV contract. Fingers crossed!!

 

[sethschroeder]

That will not work if you cannot find a renter. People have been stating in the past their points were rented out quick , currently not so much.

Points still go super fast if you price them well (well above MFs).

 

[sethschroeder]

Also, the MFs are going to increase, so in 5-7 years, the difference will be over $430 and $615 respectively.

Oh I think you meant if someone rents SSR vs VB points being used there.

I don't think VB keeps outpacing the rest so quickly but anything is possible. If you buy there it should be to stay there though.

 

[Nabas]

It will be interesting to see if we see some discounts from Disney on the hotels this summer.

I just saw a Disney commercial on tv for 25% off hotels

 

[Chili327]

Anyone looking, there is a decently priced small Boulder Ridge contract available, & its NOT “full price offer only”.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/wilderness-lodge/br01271/

 

[Nabas]

Increasing direct sales incentives is another sign that DVC direct sales are not where Disney wants them to be:

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...idian-riviera-incentives-rise-for-spring-2023

Presumably, this will trickle down to resales.

 

[Nabas]

It will be interesting to see if we see some discounts from Disney on the hotels this summer.

And I just received an email for a $750 Food promo with a 5-night, 4-day ticket package at a Deluxe Resort. That works out to $150 per night.

Picking a random hotel (Boardwalk) and random week (2nd week in July), the room is $550 per night. This works out to a 27% discount.

 

[CLE2WDW]

I don’t think we are even close to bottom. With interest rates continue to shoot upwards and cash buyers continuing to dwindle its only a matter of time when the pool of eligible buyers shrinks significantly. It’s definitely a buyers market but if you’re looking to buy I’d wait until 2nd half of this year… that’s when we will likely have a recession in the US and sellers will have more motivation to sell their contract. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 2042s go down on a price per point basis another 10-15%. Your patience will be rewarded.

 

[Brian Noble]

...which is more or less typical for a Deluxe resort. So, reversion to form, but not necessarily falling-sky prices.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I don’t think we are even close to bottom. With interest rates continue to shoot upwards and cash buyers continuing to dwindle its only a matter of time when the pool of eligible buyers shrinks significantly. It’s definitely a buyers market but if you’re looking to buy I’d wait until 2nd half of this year… that’s when we will likely have a recession in the US and sellers will have more motivation to sell their contract. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 2042s go down on a price per point basis another 10-15%. Your patience will be rewarded.

But you lose a whole year of usage, which would essentially offset the price drop.

 

[Nabas]

I don’t think we are even close to bottom. With interest rates continue to shoot upwards and cash buyers continuing to dwindle its only a matter of time when the pool of eligible buyers shrinks significantly. It’s definitely a buyers market but if you’re looking to buy I’d wait until 2nd half of this year… that’s when we will likely have a recession in the US and sellers will have more motivation to sell their contract. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 2042s go down on a price per point basis another 10-15%. Your patience will be rewarded.

We also have Disney no longer ROFRing much and Disney offering deeper discounts on direct sales.

 

[Nabas]

...which is more or less typical for a Deluxe resort. So, reversion to form, but not necessarily falling-sky prices.

I don’t see this as a repeat of 2009-2011, but DVC prices really shot upward over the last few years, and they need to come back down to at least 2019 levels.

 

[Brian Noble]

It would be reasonable to be a bit above 2019 given what inflation has been doing, but there was definitely some Irrational Exuberance in there.

 

[Genie+]

It would be reasonable to be a bit above 2019 given what inflation has been doing, but there was definitely some Irrational Exuberance in there.

Even with inflation though, would the decrease of years left somewhat counteract that?

 

[AstroBlasters]

We also have Disney no longer ROFRing much and Disney offering deeper discounts on direct sales.

“Deeper” than when?