Where is bottom?

I know the AUL Incentives are significantly less generous than before 3/1. But only pay attention to member add-on and not new member.
Where can I look to find member add-on incentives?

New member incentives are easy to find, but the only time I've seen add-on incentives was in an email from my sales guide when I asked about adding on.

NEVERMIND! When I went to the new member incentive page there was a link to login and see add-on incentives :)
 
As quick as the bottom of 2020 came, it left. I remember an article explaining Poly at $140 was probably the best deal out there when considering dues and length of contract. Some people got Poly at $120pp. Sweet! But it quickly climbed right back up.
 

In 2020 when covid shut everything down and prices dropped, a few disboarders were adamant that prices would continue to drop and would wait "until the end of the year" to pick up contracts in a bloodbath....
Right!! That’s a great point. Call me stupid, but I found a contract I liked, just a few $ above the lowest ppp on all brokers, $15/$20 below the “average” and so I didn’t bother haggling.

I like the game but I also didn’t want to duke it out. Or wait, and have more competition. Maybe once I have this in the bank I’ll feel more inclined to see if I can pick up a bargain.
 
We sold at the beginning of the pandemic just out of fear of getting stuck with a 2042 contract in a situation with such a murky outlook. Plus we were already in a hugely advantaged state given we had purchased in 2012 so were already basically ahead of the game in terms of savings. We actually made money. The plan was to just wait for another opportunity to buy in and that might be here sooner than expected.

However, something else has changed. We booked a trip for this upcoming October and when pricing it out the cost is just staggering once you account for tickets, airfare, point rental, genie+, etc. I’m not joking when I say we could have an awesome one-two week vacation pretty much anywhere in the world for the cost of 5 Disney days. And that’s before even accounting for food cost.

This is also considering just 2 adults. We do really well for ourselves and it’s still a tough cost to be okay with. I don’t see how an average family could afford this vacation anymore without taking on debt, unless making super significant sacrifices elsewhere.

We might end up buying back in if the prices are right but now I’m not so sure.
 
We sold at the beginning of the pandemic just out of fear of getting stuck with a 2042 contract in a situation with such a murky outlook. Plus we were already in a hugely advantaged state given we had purchased in 2012 so were already basically ahead of the game in terms of savings. We actually made money. The plan was to just wait for another opportunity to buy in and that might be here sooner than expected.

However, something else has changed. We booked a trip for this upcoming October and when pricing it out the cost is just staggering once you account for tickets, airfare, point rental, genie+, etc. I’m not joking when I say we could have an awesome one-two week vacation pretty much anywhere in the world for the cost of 5 Disney days. And that’s before even accounting for food cost.

This is also considering just 2 adults. We do really well for ourselves and it’s still a tough cost to be okay with. I don’t see how an average family could afford this vacation anymore without taking on debt, unless making super significant sacrifices elsewhere.

We might end up buying back in if the prices are right but now I’m not so sure.
Disney obviously know their own business, but sometimes I wonder if I'm mistaken.

The removal/discontinuance of Blue Card benefits for resale customers incentivises me to avoid as much WDW expenditure as possible - grocery deliveries, cooking in room, packed lunches, "home-made" WDW souvenirs (I'm sorely tempted to make some cardboard ears!), TP plans rather than Genie. If they stopped nickel & diming us then I'm sure that they would make a lot more revenue per trip.

We are lucky that we get really cheap park tickets in the UK - $620 for 14 day Park Hoppers.
 
Disney obviously know their own business, but sometimes I wonder if I'm mistaken.

The removal/discontinuance of Blue Card benefits for resale customers incentivises me to avoid as much WDW expenditure as possible - grocery deliveries, cooking in room, packed lunches, "home-made" WDW souvenirs (I'm sorely tempted to make some cardboard ears!), TP plans rather than Genie. If they stopped nickel & diming us then I'm sure that they would make a lot more revenue per trip.

We are lucky that we get really cheap park tickets in the UK - $620 for 14 day Park Hoppers.
It's the carrot or the stick. For a long time DVC kept saying they were going to do carrots. Never materialized to the point they kept saying it would and eventually the sticks started coming out. That has become more the Disney way today.
 
Are rental points dropping with DVC resales?
Lower resale prices don't affect rental points. However, Disney is again offering discounts on rooms, something they have not done for a bit. These discounted room rates might affect rental points.
 
Prices dropped in 2020?

I was watching closely, waiting for something good. Nothing looked like a good value.

The Fed pumped trillions into the economy in a short time. Consumers were not spending on vacations. They were flush with cash for DVC resale purchases.

If prices did drop, then they were still will above the run-up that occurred after 2016.
Well - you may have missed it - but prices dropped appreciatively during COVID.
I bought an SSR contract in May of 2020 for $88/PP
That's lower than anything currently listed on page 1 of the ROFR thread.
 
So do most other timeshare companies have an expiration date as well? Or is Disney different in that way?
Many resorts have what they call sunset clauses. Meaning at a certain date the timeshare system for the resort collapses. The owners either have to vote to continue or they sell the property and the owners receive a payout based on the number of owners and the value of the resort minus any expenses. Very few timeshare systems have deeds that actually have a hard expiration date like DVC.
 
Well - you may have missed it - but prices dropped appreciatively during COVID.
I bought an SSR contract in May of 2020 for $88/PP
That's lower than anything currently listed on page 1 of the ROFR thread.
My question to you, kind sir/ma'am, is why did you not add that to the ROFR thread? :D
 
I feel like we’re kindred spirits. I’m on the fence pulling the trigger on an AKV contract so would very much welcome your view on what tipped you over the edge into DVC from the Swolphin?

Like you, I have a ton of points (over a million, lifetime titanium so upgrades are likely). I like being in the Disney bubble, but I also love the flexibility - last minute one night getaway or last minute cancel. In fact, I just canceled a points stay within a day, but am very local so still went to the parks every day this long weekend.

I started a thread on should I/shouldn’t I…and I told myself if the right contract comes up then I should. I’d prefer to burn points elsewhere. If this is as low as it goes, I’d probably jump in. I’m not looking to make money, but I’m not looking to lose money.

Not who you were asking but I can give you my input as a lifetime titanium Marriott member also. We spend way too many nights in a Marriott (and Hilton TBH) and I want my vacation to FEEL different, Swolphin doesn’t do it for me. Yes the location is amazing but I still know I’m in a Marriott property. AND the points will eventually run out. I look at DVC as a discounted room for the duration of the contract, Swolphin rates keep rising too.
I've been Platinum Elite for a long time (though not lifetime), I agree with all of your points. I was a prior Starwood Elite and I feel like the points, even after conversion, don't go nearly as far as they used to. (Still, have ridonkulous amounbts of points, though) Swolphin is, to me, something in between "on property, deluxe resort" and "good neighbor" - I feel like it has a bit more personality and yes, great location, but it's still a hotel room. Our first DVC stay on our own points, we did 3 days at the Swan, which we all enjoyed, and then a 1br standard at BLT which my then 7-yo exclaimed, when we opened the door, "wow! This is the nicest hotel room I've ever seen!!" (She apparently forgot our previous point rentals at BWV (1br) and BLT(2br) )

There came a few times we made last minute trips to WDW and I elected to use points for Swolphin and its location rather than DVC points for SSR which was the only resort left on short notice. If we were only going to book studios, I would include Swolphin in the mix based on location alone. But having a 1br, especially a new(ly refurbished) one like VGF and RIV, is worth the points to me. And I am that cheapskate who would never pay cash rates for a 1br DVC.

We did rent points for quite some time, but I didn't like reestablishing trust with each owner even though some of them have become my "friends" here and were really helpful in talking to me about their experiences. I do also like the ability to modify and stalk and change reservations like when my sister decided last year to join us - I stalked my way to an extra studio at BCV 3-4 months in advance - no way I could have done that with point rentals. (We were already in a 2br at BCV and my backup was to book them a room at Swolphin which I held until I got that studio.) (Yes, very first world problems)

That said, I do like the flexibility with Marriott points. Before we bought RIV, I would book NYE there on points, and it wasn't that hard to do.

Inflation outside of WDW, particularly in dining, has made WDW prices seem downright reasonable.
We live in NYC; pre-COVID we never felt any sticker shock with TS/Signature restaurants because that just felt liek the price of a good restaurant meal. I will add that since COVID/inflation, the WDW Signature dining feels like a decent deal again.

Maybe once I have this in the bank I’ll feel more inclined to see if I can pick up a bargain.
Once you have a contract and points, there is a lot less time pressure to jump on a good deal. You have vacations planned and you feel less like each contract you make an offer on is so unique that you need to have it.

(And I see you made an offer, so ... good luck!)
 
Where do you think DVC resort resale point costs will be? Here are some of my guesses:

VB $49 a point
HH $55 a point
AUL $80 a point
OKW $80 a point
AKV $83 a point
Riviera $118 a point
VGF $138 a point

Is this too “sky is falling”?
I think the 2042 resorts will fall substantially. RIV will be under 100 as more resale contracts come on the market. I think we may see AKV, OKW, and SSR in the upper 70's. BC and BW anywhere from 70's - 110.
 
The economy. If the economy. Disney is not the only company laying off. RIV will be under 100 because there will be more resale conracts on the market - supply and demand - Resale is limited to only RIV which will hurt resale. 2042 resorts will drop due to years left - BC and BW will still hold value due to their location. AKV, SSR, and OKW I think will be 70s to 80's. VGF and PVD hard to say.
 















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