Where is bottom?

[Bearval]

Anything is possible but there comes a point where why would you sell, just keep renting until market changes

That will not work if you cannot find a renter. People have been stating in the past their points were rented out quick , currently not so much.

 

[Bearval]

And Disboards Posters have predicted 3,282 of the last 3 major recessions, including 583 in the past 12 months.

yes but we have been right almost every time..............

 

[Carol_]

Where do you think DVC resort resale point costs will be? Here are some of my guesses:

VB $49 a point
HH $55 a point
AUL $80 a point
OKW $80 a point
AKV $83 a point
Riviera $118 a point
VGF $138 a point

Is this too “sky is falling”?

The sky is not falling. We bought to keep. The prices can only go up because no one in my family has ever made money on real estate. We’ll be riding this CCV contract right into the dirt, staring at the green pool waters as elderly folk talking about how great it used to be. What you need to worry about is if we ever decide to sell. Which we won’t. So relax.
(This is the most sound economic advice on the internet right here.)

 

[DVCSunDevil]

I guess I just mean if 6 nights at VGC studio right now would cost 128 points....is that same exact studio for 6 nights in ten years going to cost 200 points or something? (Maybe I'm not understanding the whole concept though.....)

DVC can’t increase the total amount of points required to book a room throughout a resort. They can shift points from one season to another, but then they would have to decrease an equal number of points.

 

[Ruttangel]

That will not work if you cannot find a renter. People have been stating in the past their points were rented out quick , currently not so much.

If you bank points you can have a long time to rent out, potentially over a year, I’ve got renters for April, took less than a day to get someone so not sure the risk is that great of not finding a renter

 

[EYL]

That will not work if you cannot find a renter. People have been stating in the past their points were rented out quick , currently not so much.

At the right price, you'll find a renter. It is, after all, Disney. When the parks/resorts first started opening after the shutdown, people were lowering rentals to $15/point. So did I, since we didn't want to drive down from NYC. No major bites until I lowered it to $13/point and then I had multiple renters. Renting follows Supply and Demand. When there is high supply and low demand, you just have to follow suit. The question is, will it ever be below your maintenance costs...? My 8 Ball says "highly unlikely".

 

[Genie+]

Thanks for the explanation. That helps. I was worried if we only buy on the lower end of points now, we'd be in trouble a decade down the road and basically be forced to get another contract. That's not to say we wouldn't want to get a 2nd contract later anyway in order to get a larger villa each time but I wouldn't want to have to get more just to get similar to what is available currently.

To clarify further, points for each resort are already set.

For instance, Beach Club DVC has 208 units (studio, 1BR and 2BR) with a grand total of 3,027,100 points. The point chart always needs to balance out to roughly 3 million points. Looking at BCV point charts across the years, if you add up all the points per unit size times number of each unit times days in each point chart season, it consistently totals a bit over 3 million points.

DVC points cannot move across resorts. They can’t move 100,000 out of Saratoga’s point chart and add them to Poly. Riviera is still being sold, so far around 4.5 million points sold out of 6.7 million. Once it totally sells out it will always have 6.7 million points floating around its point chart each year.

 

[RoseGold]

That will not work if you cannot find a renter. People have been stating in the past their points were rented out quick , currently not so much.

Demand for points is absolutely there, just go to Facebook, it's crazy. But renters don't understand the system and how long you have to book ahead, and studios are tight. Make a good spec rental, and I don't see why it would be hard to rent it out. This requires planning as an owner, obviously.

 

[tom1944]

Demand for points is absolutely there, just go to Facebook, it's crazy. But renters don't understand the system and how long you have to book ahead, and studios are tight. Make a good spec rental, and I don't see why it would be hard to rent it out. This requires planning as an owner, obviously.

I was going to ask about that. Is it better to make points available for someone to rent or is it better to make a reservation and put that out for rent?

 

[RoseGold]

I was going to ask about that. Is it better to make points available for someone to rent or is it better to make a reservation and put that out for rent?

You could get lucky or unlucky either way. If you go look at some Facebook requests, you'll see exactly what renters want. It's low point rooms over weekends, the most difficult bookings in DVC.

 

[ClaraOswald]

To clarify further, points for each resort are already set.

For instance, Beach Club DVC has 208 units (studio, 1BR and 2BR) with a grand total of 3,027,100 points. The point chart always needs to balance out to roughly 3 million points. Looking at BCV point charts across the years, if you add up all the points per unit size times number of each unit times days in each point chart season, it consistently totals a bit over 3 million points.

DVC points cannot move across resorts. They can’t move 100,000 out of Saratoga’s point chart and add them to Poly. Riviera is still being sold, so far around 4.5 million points sold out of 6.7 million. Once it totally sells out it will always have 6.7 million points floating around its point chart each year.

Thanks. This helps a lot. Definitely makes more sense to buy DVC if you know you'll be wanting to go to the resort for years/decades since rack rate for rooms (on and off-site) will DEFINITELY increase over the years. (Or maybe this is just another way for me to rationalize spending the $$$ on a contract. Ha!)

 

[Domer87]

I was going to ask about that. Is it better to make points available for someone to rent or is it better to make a reservation and put that out for rent?

I'm in the 'better to make reservation..." camp. For instance, I just created a bookend reservation for 2024 marathon weekend at WDW... for the sole purpose of possible renting out. NJ week in November, Thanksgiving and Christmas will always sell..IMHO.

 

[kboo]

If you can get a seven year loan at 0% Apr it actually is good financial sense with the falling value of the dollar etc.

We had the ability to do 72 months once, but still went with leasing as we like to trade in every three years.

We did a panic car lease in March 2020 and got something under 1% We looked at trading / getting a new car same model, and the monthly would have been double what we got in March because, of course, interest rates ... we did extend another 6 months because the current rate is too good to pass up and will decide what we want to do later.

2) Ah, but what matters is the EFFECTIVE cost. What’s the average DVC ownership—10-12 years? What’s the average cost of a resale contract—$150pp? What are the average dues, $8-9? So the effective cost of DVC ownership for the average buyer is majority going to be the contract price. And all of this is rather meaningless in a recession. I’m not sure telling someone, “Hey, I know things are bad now, but remember, the cost of this contract may be steep now, but if you hold it for a generation, the dues catch up. So really this $50,000 today isn’t that big of a deal when looking at 2050 and you’ve spent an additional $90,000 in cumulative dues…”

I'm not sure the 10-12 year hold # is verified anywhere, but I agree - I suspect that even if that's the average, that happens it's probably not a bell curve but a bimodal distribution - my OPINION: because there's a spike of sales within 1-3 years (where people bought direct and realized they needed to get out - financially or didn't know they could rent or didn't know they couldn't just book a room the week before, etc) then there's probably a long hold time, and then a smaller bump of people selling because life circumstances change - death of a family member, other family members don't want the DVC, etc. The 2 resale contracts I bought for VGF were both financially distressed buyers who were selling within 1-2 years of buying.

Swolphin is no where near BCV or BWV in terms of accommodations and theming. Yes, it is nearby. But that doesn't mean it is equal.

For a few years I held off on buying DVC because I had a lot of points to be used at Swolphin from my days as a road warrior. Just recently I looked at some rooms on points and saw that the Swan Reserve is comparable in point cost to Swolphin 1.0, *and* because of road warrior days and status, I would get an upgrade from the usual hotel room. Not equal, I agree, because no kitchen, no easy shuttle to MK (drop off now at TTC), no laundry, but a brand new suite that's bookable on points more than 11 months out and can be canceled within days of arrival with no penalty? That is worth something. (Also I agree that if you're only looking at studios anyway, then Swolphin is more competitive. Now with DVC we are almost always in 1-2br with our family of 4 or with my dad as a +1, and we cuoldn't just get 1 room if my dad is coming.)

I was going to ask about that. Is it better to make points available for someone to rent or is it better to make a reservation and put that out for rent?

I have only ever rented out points because I couldn't use them myself and they were expiring. I've done both depending on the timing and season, but as others have said, put them out there for a low $ per point and they are gone in under 24 hours. If you can get a studio reserved, great, but then the other good spec reservation is a 2br for a weekend or so, because it is instantly appealing to a larger family or group of friends.

 

[Stank]

Agree 100%. If only it were so easy to "read the indicators" and be so sure what a certain commodity or the overall economy will look like in 1 or 2 years. None of us would own DVC, we'd just have our butlers drive us over to MK from our 7 million dollar mansion in Golden Oak

Never forget, economists have predicted 27 out of the last 3 major recessions by reading the same indicators people look at now. There's always a certain percentage of people predicting an imminent catastrophe. Eventually they're right of course. But timing a market is rarely the ideal strategy. And even if this does turn out to be a bad recession, it certainly won't be the first since DVC has existed. There will be downward price pressure of course, but as long as WDW remains a popular destination, I can't see a sudden "bubble popping" like collapse.

Then again maybe it will. I don't know what I'm talking about just like everyone else

And Disboards Posters have predicted 3,282 of the last 3 major recessions, including 583 in the past 12 months.

Perplexing people aren’t aware we’re currently in recession while pretending as if we aren’t and that predicting one is impossible. We’re already here; there’s no prediction necessary. Manufacturing numbers are worse today than at the deepest part of COVID lockdowns in May 2020. Credit card usage is spiking dramatically. People are clinging to debt in the game of musical chairs.

Pretending like the recession isn’t here is akin to Wiley E Coyote having already walked off the side of the cliff and still being suspended in midair and he hasn’t looked down so he hasn’t fallen yet.

 

[tom1944]

Maybe the owners of DVC contracts that are listed for sale and not willing to take less are not impacted by the recession.

They have the ability to hold.

 

[Cfabar1]

Maybe the owners of DVC contracts that are listed for sale and not willing to take less are not impacted by the recession.

They have the ability to hold.

I think that’s some of the problem, or that they deluded themselves into thinking if they just hold out long enough it will come back To where it was. Maybe it will, but I am skeptical…

 

[Chili327]

I think that Riviera has further to fall as the resort ages, more resale inventory comes online, and fewer resale buyers are willing to buy restricted points. The others sound reasonable although I’m not sure how much more the market really has to fall. I think we could even see a slight rebound now that we’re out of dues season.

Eventually its just a regular timeshare that has very low resale value, no optional locations, & expiration date. I definitely think they are shooting themselves in the foot with the restrictions, the resale value is what makes DVC so much better than a timeshare. IMO

I'm wondering when 2042 becomes an extreme circumstance. I can't imagine a 2042 contract in 10 years or even 5 years with high dues going for anything close to what they are at now. The compounding effect of an average 5% dues increase each year and the loss of time on contract doesn't seem, imho, to bode well for those resorts.

Dues should drop to next to nothing if there is no refurb in the near future (unless they want top charge current members for future members amenities?).. so the last 7 years (or so) should be very low dues... shouldn't it?

That’s the thing about DVC that’s amazing… Much higher cost… fixed term… and it has higher resale value than the rest….

Until the restrictions make them not so amazing with very low resale value.

An excellent question! We all know that in about 18 years, the 2042 resorts will be worth $0; the last year for points is 2041. The current valuation of the 2042 resorts vs other DVC resorts with over twice as many remaining years really boggles my brain.

Dues and resale value should drop like a rock in the last 10 years of any contract.

I guess I just mean if 6 nights at VGC studio right now would cost 128 points....is that same exact studio for 6 nights in ten years going to cost 200 points or something?

No, points wont go up, only the dues go up... along with the rack rates & cost of living, economy, etc.




Phew, i was wondering if i was going to be able to keep up with all the quotes. lol

 

[Stank]

When you look at the raw number of contracts being bought and sold at any given time, it isn't significant to the overall DVC landscape. Let's say that there are currently 3,000 contracts listed for sale in aggregate over the various brokers. That's a tiny percentage of overall contracts.

That’s not a good take at all. Everyone looking at the auto industry looks at monthly sales figures, not, “Well, current sales are irrelevant because it’s a small slice of the total number of automobiles on the roads.”

Total resale contracts on market is 2600. What’s the average contract size listed—say a conservative 100? So you’re looking at hundreds of thousands of resale points actively listed. DVD sold 111k points Direct in January. So the active resale inventory dwarfs Direct sales.

 

[Johtull12]

Eventually its just a regular timeshare that has very low resale value, no optional locations, & expiration date. I definitely think they are shooting themselves in the foot with the restrictions, the resale value is what makes DVC so much better than a timeshare. IMO



Dues should drop to next to nothing if there is no refurb in the near future (unless they want top charge current members for future members amenities?).. so the last 7 years (or so) should be very low dues... shouldn't it?



Until the restrictions make them not so amazing with very low resale value.



Dues and resale value should drop like a rock in the last 10 years of any contract.



No, points wont go up, only the dues go up... along with the rack rates & cost of living, economy, etc.




Phew, i was wondering if i was going to be able to keep up with all the quotes. lol

2 days on the boards and over 30 posts....going hard in the paint

 

[Chili327]

2 days on the boards and over 30 posts....going hard in the paint

Haha, I’ve been researching DVC for a couple years now and been driving my friends crazy talking about it, wanting to get into DVC, & now i found a bunch of people that don’t mind talking DVC.

*edit*
Not to mention ive been lurking here for quite a while, & recently started making offers, so I’m deep in the rabbit hole right now.