Where is bottom?

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Haha, I’ve been researching DVC for a couple years now and been driving my friends crazy talking about it, wanting to get into DVC, & now i found a bunch of people that don’t mind talking DVC.

*edit*
Not to mention ive been lurking here for quite a while, & recently started making offers, so I’m deep in the rabbit hole right now.

you could'nt have picked a better time to jump in!

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Where do you think DVC resort resale point costs will be? Here are some of my guesses:

VB $49 a point
HH $55 a point
AUL $80 a point
OKW $80 a point
AKV $83 a point
Riviera $118 a point
VGF $138 a point

Is this too “sky is falling”?

Rivera $100 AKV $105 everything else seems reasonable.

Not sure how much more negative pressure the market has left in it. Number of contracts for sale is starting to fall for the first time in nearly 2 years. Is it just seasonal? Maybe. But I guess we will know soon enough.

 

[Chili327]

you could'nt have picked a better time to jump in!

Yea, I’m chomping at the bit… made a few offers, but trying to not just jump on everything i see and wait for the right deal. i think this is the year for sure tho.

 

[intamin]

Haha, I’ve been researching DVC for a couple years now and been driving my friends crazy talking about it, wanting to get into DVC, & now i found a bunch of people that don’t mind talking DVC.

*edit*
Not to mention ive been lurking here for quite a while, & recently started making offers, so I’m deep in the rabbit hole right now.

Welcome home! I came here because my fiancee was actually getting mad at me for talking and listening to DVC related stuff all the time so instead of talking her ear off I just am insufferable on here instead

 

[intamin]

Rivera $100 AKV $105 everything else seems reasonable.

Not sure how much more negative pressure the market has left in it. Number of contracts for sale is starting to fall for the first time in nearly 2 years. Is it just seasonal? Maybe. But I guess we will know soon enough.

AKV has already gone for 90pp recently. I don’t expect that to be the norm but mid- high 90s I could see happening.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Trying to time the market is nearly impossible.

I would argue the DVC market is perhaps one of the easiest markets in existence to time. Prices severely lag changes in sales. So when you see sales meaningfully slowing, prices will fall, eventually. When sales rise, prices will rise, a little quicker, but still, with more than enough time to act ahead of most of the increase. And there’s virtually no one arbitraging this, so the gaps just sit there, not acted upon. If you wanted to make money on the ups and downs of DVC prices, it wouldn’t be terribly difficult.

And like Warren Buffet says, if you’re right 60% of the time in investing, you’ll wind up the richest man in the world.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

AKV has already gone for 90pp recently. I don’t expect that to be the norm but mid- high 90s I could see happening.

I guess if the question is what is the dumbest person going to do, yes. A beach club contract sold for $68 during the early part of the pandemic but the *market* bottomed out at like $115-$120. The market for AKV is $111 right now. Maybe it goes a lot lower idk but I can’t see it in the 90s.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

That will not work if you cannot find a renter. People have been stating in the past their points were rented out quick , currently not so much.

Disney appears to be having the same problem with their hotel rooms for 2023 based on the data they share and the discounts they’ve offered.

 

[intamin]

I guess if the question is what is the dumbest person going to do, yes. A beach club contract sold for $68 during the early part of the pandemic but the *market* bottomed out at like $115-$120. The market for AKV is $111 right now. Maybe it goes a lot lower idk but I can’t see it in the 90s.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ only time will tell. Since I have a contract in ROFR for AKV that I got for 114pp it’d actually make me feel better if you’re right but I wouldn’t be surprised if we go to low 100s or high 90s given that some of these 110s were loaded contracts.

 

[Disney_David]

For a few years I held off on buying DVC because I had a lot of points to be used at Swolphin from my days as a road warrior. Just recently I looked at some rooms on points and saw that the Swan Reserve is comparable in point cost to Swolphin 1.0, *and* because of road warrior days and status, I would get an upgrade from the usual hotel room. Not equal, I agree, because no kitchen, no easy shuttle to MK (drop off now at TTC), no laundry, but a brand new suite that's bookable on points more than 11 months out and can be canceled within days of arrival with no penalty? That is worth something. (Also I agree that if you're only looking at studios anyway, then Swolphin is more competitive. Now with DVC we are almost always in 1-2br with our family of 4 or with my dad as a +1, and we cuoldn't just get 1 room if my dad is coming.)

I feel like we’re kindred spirits. I’m on the fence pulling the trigger on an AKV contract so would very much welcome your view on what tipped you over the edge into DVC from the Swolphin?

Like you, I have a ton of points (over a million, lifetime titanium so upgrades are likely). I like being in the Disney bubble, but I also love the flexibility - last minute one night getaway or last minute cancel. In fact, I just canceled a points stay within a day, but am very local so still went to the parks every day this long weekend.

I started a thread on should I/shouldn’t I…and I told myself if the right contract comes up then I should. I’d prefer to burn points elsewhere. If this is as low as it goes, I’d probably jump in. I’m not looking to make money, but I’m not looking to lose money.

 

[BamaGuy44]

Perplexing people aren’t aware we’re currently in recession while pretending as if we aren’t and that predicting one is impossible. We’re already here; there’s no prediction necessary. Manufacturing numbers are worse today than at the deepest part of COVID lockdowns in May 2020. Credit card usage is spiking dramatically. People are clinging to debt in the game of musical chairs.

Pretending like the recession isn’t here is akin to Wiley E Coyote having already walked off the side of the cliff and still being suspended in midair and he hasn’t looked down so he hasn’t fallen yet.

I’m not pretending there’s no recession. There definitely is, with regards to a shrinking GDP. I said it’s hard to predict where the overall economy will be in a year or 2, which it is. There are weak indicators and stronger indicators. Recession doesn’t mean the economy and the market are going in the tank long term. Depends how deep, how long, what the Fed does, and a dozen other variables.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

Welcome home! I came here because my fiancee was actually getting mad at me for talking and listening to DVC related stuff all the time so instead of talking her ear off I just am insufferable on here instead

Same!

 

[BeachClub2014]

That’s not a good take at all. Everyone looking at the auto industry looks at monthly sales figures, not, “Well, current sales are irrelevant because it’s a small slice of the total number of automobiles on the roads.”

Total resale contracts on market is 2600. What’s the average contract size listed—say a conservative 100? So you’re looking at hundreds of thousands of resale points actively listed. DVD sold 111k points Direct in January. So the active resale inventory dwarfs Direct sales.

Whatever. It doesn't matter what whether you believe it to be a good take. And your analogy doesn't hold water. Auto manufacturers continue to produce new cars every day and sell them, just like DVC. The number of resale DVC contracts on the market is irrelevant to the overall DVC landscape. Do resales take away some small portion of direct sales? Sure. Just like used car sales take away some portion of new car sales.

I'm still unclear on your point of all of this other than telling everyone else how wrong they are.

 

[Bearval]

Eventually its just a regular timeshare that has very low resale value, no optional locations, & expiration date. I definitely think they are shooting themselves in the foot with the restrictions, the resale value is what makes DVC so much better than a timeshare. IMO



Dues should drop to next to nothing if there is no refurb in the near future (unless they want top charge current members for future members amenities?).. so the last 7 years (or so) should be very low dues... shouldn't it?



Until the restrictions make them not so amazing with very low resale value.



Dues and resale value should drop like a rock in the last 10 years of any contract.



No, points wont go up, only the dues go up... along with the rack rates & cost of living, economy, etc.




Phew, i was wondering if i was going to be able to keep up with all the quotes. lol

Typically the highest yearly costs to any business is labor, hourly wages are rising at Disney along with the costs of benefits, health insurance etc. Right now the Disney unions are working under an expired contract, they want a $3 an hour across the board increase for the 1st year and $1 an hour for each of the remaining 4 years of the proposed contract. Disney only wants to pay $1 an hour for each of the 5 years. In either case your dues are going up, just depends on how much. I don't think Disney can afford a strike so I am willing to bet the contract will be closer to the union proposal.

 

[RuntheMouse]

I feel like we’re kindred spirits. I’m on the fence pulling the trigger on an AKV contract so would very much welcome your view on what tipped you over the edge into DVC from the Swolphin?

Like you, I have a ton of points (over a million, lifetime titanium so upgrades are likely). I like being in the Disney bubble, but I also love the flexibility - last minute one night getaway or last minute cancel. In fact, I just canceled a points stay within a day, but am very local so still went to the parks every day this long weekend.

Not who you were asking but I can give you my input as a lifetime titanium Marriott member also. We spend way too many nights in a Marriott (and Hilton TBH) and I want my vacation to FEEL different, Swolphin doesn’t do it for me. Yes the location is amazing but I still know I’m in a Marriott property. AND the points will eventually run out. I look at DVC as a discounted room for the duration of the contract, Swolphin rates keep rising too.

 

[Cfabar1]

For me, Swolphin is great. I dont’ want to buy a 2042 resort, and the cash rates are too high. I like the flexibility. I’ll save my DVC points for MK and AK and beaches for now. But, Swolphin is also very expensive, often a terrible use of Marriott points, and charges obscene amounts for parking - especially since Disney now doesn’t charge parking at resorts.

 

[SkampyOne]

Swolphin doesn’t do it for me. Yes the location is amazing but I still know I’m in a Marriott property. AND the points will eventually run out. I look at DVC as a discounted room for the duration of the contract, Swolphin rates keep rising too.

While I will always have a soft spot for Swolphin, my points DID run out since my travel days stopped March 13, 2020. I had started to get disgruntled with their pricing and started staying elsewhere anyway. I did a single Swan stay last fall and it was definitely NOT the same. I used to bring my family for 10 days, but not anymore. The point chart got out of hand, and for a cash stay, there are better options too. DVC makes so much more sense, even though my choice of BWV doesn't (the heart wants what the heart wants). I priced out my ideal vacation days across a number of DVC properties (cash stay) vs. Disney moderates & value vs. off-site options (Swolphin and then Hotel Plaza Blvd) and the Swan Reserve would cost $6K MORE than the Grand Floridian. NO thank you! When I did the math, I realized I should have bought DVC sooner, and used my Marriott/Hilton points elsewhere.

For my ideal vacation days, here's how the various options fared on a per night basis:
GFV $454.13 cash rate vs. $421.69 renting points at $21PP vs. $145.39 DVC - cheapest of the DVC options I priced
BWV $758.30 cash vs. $269.34 renting points at $21PP vs. $190.21 DVC - most expensive DVC option I priced

Ranking options from most expensive to cheapest:
Swan Reserve $824.07
Swan $477.29
Dolphin $407.30
Port Orleans French Quarter $357.01
Coronado Springs $338.91
Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista $334.73
Drury Plaza $265.35
Wyndham Lake Buena Vista $259.96
Pop Century $257.63
All Stars $205.20
BWV $190.21
GFV $145.39 - SERIOUSLY

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

For me, Swolphin is great. I dont’ want to buy a 2042 resort, and the cash rates are too high. I like the flexibility. I’ll save my DVC points for MK and AK and beaches for now. But, Swolphin is also very expensive, often a terrible use of Marriott points, and charges obscene amounts for parking - especially since Disney now doesn’t charge parking at resorts.

Swan was a fantastic bargain on Starpoints before the Marriott merger. Now it’s a slightly below average Marriott redemption at peak season and a terrible use during low season, but OTOH, cash prices during low season can hit $200/night for a hotel with better dining options than most of the other Deluxes.

Off-site options should absolutely weigh into purchase decisions. That’s why Disneyland DVC will probably never be in the cards for us - the offsite options are frankly better for my family, at any price, AND as a bonus they’re a fraction of the cost of buying/using DVC there. And the on-site perks at DLR aren’t particularly important compared to WDW.

 

[Brian Noble]

they want a $3 an hour across the board increase

IIRC, that would bring WDW to $18. Universal moved to $17 very recently. Disney is going to have to pay more than they are now, and do so quickly, or their staffing problems are going to get worse. The only question is how much. Given the exploding cost of housing in Central FL, even $18 is going to be tough to make do with, unless you are a household of two and both working.

And no, Dues will not go to "almost nothing" in the last few years, because Dues pay primarily for the ongoing operation of the resort. At best, the capital reserves amount will drop off, because at the end-of-life there is no reserve required. But at e.g. Saratoga, that's about $1.30 of the $7.33 total.

 

[tom1944]

IIRC, that would bring WDW to $18. Universal moved to $17 very recently. Disney is going to have to pay more than they are now, and do so quickly, or their staffing problems are going to get worse. The only question is how much. Given the exploding cost of housing in Central FL, even $18 is going to be tough to make do with, unless you are a household of two and both working.

And no, Dues will not go to "almost nothing" in the last few years, because Dues pay primarily for the ongoing operation of the resort. At best, the capital reserves amount will drop off, because at the end-of-life there is no reserve required. But at e.g. Saratoga, that's about $1.30 of the $7.33 total.

How many years before expiration would it be feasible to drop capital reserve assessments?