Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

Since the variance between pending numbers and actual selling price is large, these should be viewed for their trend value whereas the sale prices from the ROFR threads and other sources are likely more useful for setting offer levels

Pending

……3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/31 6/30 7/31



AKV 109 108 109 109 109 110 116

AUL 96 97 97 96 97 95 98

BLT 137 141 144 143 143 144 145

BCV 140 138 140 140 138 140 143

BWV 118 121 121 120 119 120 120

BRV 98 98 97 97 98 99 103

CCV 147 147 150 151 151 150 152

VGF 164 163 161 163 165 163 162

HH 75 76 75 78 76 75 75

OKW 93 93 93 92 94 94 100

POLY 146 146 146 146 146 149 153

SS 101 101 102 102 101 102 104

VB 71 67 67 67 68 66 70

 

[bookwormde]

My perception is that there has been a very significant increase in the average listing price, though a portion of that may be from the point mix (size of contract, remaining points, far above the market contracts etc)

Reduced contract averages and pending also gone up but much more moderately.

Although the data set is small, the difference between listing and selling price continues to be large

 

[mamaofsix]

There is no logical reason OKW non extended should be within $10-$15 of SSR unless people really value the two queen beds. It has 12 less years on the resort and it’s location is sub optimal. No parks to walk to, and does not have the Disney Springs tie in that at least SSR has.

This is purely anecdotal, but for our family the difference is the points chart. We're a big family and it's the only resort where we could afford to stay in the grand villas regularly. And you pretty much need to own there to get those grand villas at high demand times. All other room categories are also a steal compared to other resorts.

Less years on the contract is more appealing to us than longer contracts. We only want to own for 20 years anyway. It means tens of thousands of dollars I would not be paying in annual dues, no headache in having to resell or rent out points when we don't want it anymore, etc.

In a nut shell, I'm willing to pay a bit more per point up front in order to save way more money in the long run.

Like I said, just anecdotal based on our family - but I'd imagine many others have the same thoughts, which explains the price.

 

[davidl81]

This is purely anecdotal, but for our family the difference is the points chart. We're a big family and it's the only resort where we could afford to stay in the grand villas regularly. And you pretty much need to own there to get those grand villas at high demand times. All other room categories are also a steal compared to other resorts.

Less years on the contract is more appealing to us than longer contracts. We only want to own for 20 years anyway. It means tens of thousands of dollars I would not be paying in annual dues, no headache in having to resell or rent out points when we don't want it anymore, etc.

In a nut shell, I'm willing to pay a bit more per point up front in order to save way more money in the long run.

Like I said, just anecdotal based on our family - but I'd imagine many others have the same thoughts, which explains the price.

That’s a very fair point on the villas and I almost brought it up in my first post. I look at the timeline a little differently (not to say yours is wrong or mine is better) and I figure in 20 years when OKW has expired the SSR contract will have 12 years left on it and it will still have some significant value (even if it’s $30 a point) that would be fairly easy to resale. Of course if you have maybe 200 points then we are talking about $6000 in 20 years which frankly is not that much money when you think that far out so I get your point.

 

[davidl81]

There is something else driving people to pay more for OKW and BCV and pay less for BWV and BRV.

I agree that the existence of (and active sale of and significant incentives on) CCV has hurt BRV and is likely that "something else" for that resort. I'm guessing for BCV it's Stormalong Bay driving the difference. Less sure about OKW and BWV.

BCV vs BWV comes down to two things IMO. Stormalong bay is the 1st things, but total number of DVC units is another really big one. There are simply much more BWV points out there in the world and that hurts the value compared to BCV.

 

[CastAStone]

There is no logical reason OKW non extended should be within $10-$15 of SSR unless people really value the two queen beds. It has 12 less years on the resort and it’s location is sub optimal. No parks to walk to, and does not have the Disney Springs tie in that at least SSR has.

Debate as old as time, I see...Here's some highlights from a nearly 20 year old thread on the topic. Interesting that one of the arguments for OKW was "Lowest Dues of any DVC"...not even remotely true anymore...

In my opinion, SSR is a poor deal. It has the same tiny rooms as BWV and BCV without the premium location. Its the same location as OKW, yet it has tiny rooms and a higher point schedule. I can't see any advantadge to SSR over OKW.....except the later ending date. That is a big one, but I really have to believe that there will be some way to extend older memberships in the future.

If it didn't have those same tiny, cramped rooms as BWV, it would be a no-brainer.

Given those choices, SS is a no brainer. Still, you could go resale and save some money. If I wanted OKW points of 100 or more, I'd go resale.

 

[sethschroeder]

All other room categories are also a steal compared to other resorts.

BWV and AKV are both a wash vs OKW (maybe 2-3 points more or less for a week long stay typically). As BWV has hit the 105-110 spot for a good contract it is crazy to see a OKW '43 contract selling for 100/point. We are talking $5/point extra for BWV which is sometimes a couple points cheaper/expensive for a stay.

By the way OKW now has more expensive MFs than BWV/AKV as well and likely both are a more desired home stay location.

 

[mamaofsix]

BWV and AKV are both a wash vs OKW (maybe 2-3 points more or less for a week long stay typically). As BWV has hit the 105-110 spot for a good contract it is crazy to see a OKW '43 contract selling for 100/point. We are talking $5/point extra for BWV which is sometimes a couple points cheaper/expensive for a stay.

By the way OKW now has more expensive MFs than BWV/AKV as well and likely both are a more desired home stay location.

Probably depends on the time of year you want to go. We often travel at peak times. For a week next March, for example:

Grandvillas: AK=772, BWV=805, OKW=489

2 Bed: AK=289-377, BWV = 362, OKW = 301

1 Bed: AK=230-272, BWV = 276, OKW = 222

Studio: AK = 116-144, BWV=139, OKW = 113

Since we'd mostly be interested in Grand Villas, the 300+ point savings per week is pretty significant. And the other categories are a really good deal in comparison, too. AKV it depends on your room category, but still a savings. And a huge amount off compared to BWV in every single room type.

OKW might not be for everyone, but I do think the points chart is probably the #1 reason why someone would choose it over any of the others as a home resort. Especially when it's one of the only resorts that often does not have grand villa availability at the 7 month window.

 

[sethschroeder]

Grandvillas: AK=772, BWV=805, OKW=489

2 Bed: AK=289-377, BWV = 362, OKW = 301

1 Bed: AK=230-272, BWV = 276, OKW = 222

Studio: AK = 116-144, BWV=139, OKW = 113

Sorry a little disingenuous to not point out the Standard view rooms which are super easy to get in March (just did it for next year at 9 months even. Availability charts are even pointing to March being really easy to get standard rooms.

As you can see AKV is also the same price, couple points more, couple points less with their standard view (not even account value if you get that). AVK standard room also super easy to get in pretty much every month.

BWV in March is going to be:
113 = Studio
220 = 1BR
306 = 2BR

You can see across the board again couple points more less.

Oh and miss out on BWV Standard rooms? Well guess what AKV Std and OKW are BOTH likely to be open at 7 months without issue.

OKW might not be for everyone, but I do think the points chart is probably the #1 reason why someone would choose it over any of the others as a home resort.

As pointed out when talking about Std views at BWV points charts puts it even with AKV/BWV outside of the Grand Villa. Flip side SSR has the Treehouses but haven't looked at them just know they are a really economical option for 3 BRs.

 

[davidl81]

Probably depends on the time of year you want to go. We often travel at peak times. For a week next March, for example:

Grandvillas: AK=772, BWV=805, OKW=489

2 Bed: AK=289-377, BWV = 362, OKW = 301

1 Bed: AK=230-272, BWV = 276, OKW = 222

Studio: AK = 116-144, BWV=139, OKW = 113

Since we'd mostly be interested in Grand Villas, the 300+ point savings per week is pretty significant. And the other categories are a really good deal in comparison, too. AKV it depends on your room category, but still a savings. And a huge amount off compared to BWV in every single room type.

OKW might not be for everyone, but I do think the points chart is probably the #1 reason why someone would choose it over any of the others as a home resort. Especially when it's one of the only resorts that often does not have grand villa availability at the 7 month window.

As stated above you really need to include standard view for BWV since as an owner there you would easily get them at 11 months.
The only place where OKW has a true tangible point value is on the Grand Villas. For a large group it is by far the best value in DVC. It’s not fair to compare the Tree House Villas to them just because of size etc.
That being said it’s only a very small group of people specifically buying for Grand Villas and those buyers are buying big enough contracts (250-300 points) to get those rooms for the most part. The Grand Villas alone should not keep a 160 point contract at the same basic price point of SSR.

 

[Hopfather28]

This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.

The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.
View attachment 515263
View attachment 515262

While I do think that an r-squared in that range indicates statistically significant evidence, using averages as opposed to randomly selected observations ALWAYS results in stronger association as it hides variation within the individual subgroups (in this instance each resort). Not to mention the potential for outliers on the highly influential extremes of the independent variable. I do however suspect that if one were to randomly collect data over the course of a month or so for all sales, you would still find a very similar model that is statistically significant albeit not with an r-square in the .9+ range. I also wonder if when looked at as a scatterplot of 50 or more randomly selected contracts if a linear regression would be appropriate or if there might be some violation of the equal variance assumption when one looks at the residuals.

TLDR: Love the stats. Predictions are fun. I'm a math geek. Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

 

[Dean]

Debate as old as time, I see...Here's some highlights from a nearly 20 year old thread on the topic. Interesting that one of the arguments for OKW was "Lowest Dues of any DVC"...not even remotely true anymore...

The thing about timeshares is that thing change, that's one of the reasons I feel that one needs return of investment over around 10 years and why I feel one can't rely on current perks long term.

 

[bookwormde]

8/2 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300% of average

For the week of 7/27 to 8/2 newly posted resale contracts at about 270% of average

 

[Brian Noble]

Here is a thought that just crossed my mind. Cash reservations are going to be restricted for at least the next year for normal rooms. DVC will be fully open and there is a chance that they may be the only rooms available to book at points in 2021 (depending on demand for regular rooms of course). I don’t know if cash rooms will be hard to get, but if they remain restricted I can see DVC maintaining or maybe increasing in value. Just a thought.

The cash resorts are closed because no one wants to stay there right now. If there is suddenly demand, Disney is not going to keep resorts closed just to tell people they can't stay; those resorts will open. And, we know there is less demand than even Disney expected, because some cash resort opening dates have been pushed back or delayed indefinitely.

DVC is open because Disney doesn't "own" the rooms, and they are contractually obligated to operate the resorts if possible---there is language in the covenants to this effect. But no one wants to stay there either---witness the ridiculous number of reservations for rent from folks who had planned to go and are unable or unwilling for various reasons. DVC exchanges are sitting for the asking at RCI for the next month or two, and have been for weeks, when usually they disappear in hours.

In fact, if I were a betting man I would bet that a lot of those DVC Member reservations for later in the Fall are going to be cancelled when it is clear that the US has no better handle on COVID in late September than we have right now. I expect the COVID situation to be worse as some college campuses and K-12 schools start in-person instruction for the first time since March-ish. If that happens, we will see "Fall rush" DVC availability that is unprecedented.

Less sure about OKW and BWV.

No idea about BWV. OKW may be a couple of things. One is that anyone who owns there at this point is likely a long-term owner and the churn level might be lower there than elsewhere. Two is that IMO they still have the best room size/layout of any DVC. I suppose one additional possibility is that buy-in cost is an out-sized consideration for some prospective buyers, which itself would tend to bouy what would otherwise be the lowest Orlando-area price. People who need the lowest-possible buy-in and care less about other considerations would be over-represented on the buyer side of OKW.

It's also just hard to capture some non-linear behavior, so maybe it's worth not reading to much into it.

 

[RoseGold]

I caved and bought a stripped VGF.... Now to see if it makes it past ROFR.

VGF is the contract I wanted long term and the one I thought would last long enough to pass down to my kid. Now I'm STACKED and I can sell my others as the kids in my family outgrow Disney. I've been patient and watching and I'm thrilled with this contract for our family!

 

[JoshF]

I caved and bought a stripped VGF.... Now to see if it makes it past ROFR.

VGF is the contract I wanted long term and the one I thought would last long enough to pass down to my kid. Now I'm STACKED and I can sell my others as the kids in my family outgrow Disney. I've been patient and watching and I'm thrilled with this contract for our family!

What cost per point did you get?

 

[RoseGold]

What cost per point did you get?

Mid 150s. Considering it was in the high 160s (stripped) when I bought in fall 2019, I'm happy with that. Maybe VGF will drop a few bucks more, but this was the contract I wanted, so I'm happy.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

Some interesting points at the end of this weeks DVC Show podcast. They brought up the fact that ROFR not being exercised likely hurts direct sales in that resale becomes more and more attractive as prices drop. Pete also brought up the fact that most of the best direct benefits have disappeared.
Team white card is looking better and better to me.

 

[CastAStone]

Pete also brought up the fact that most of the best direct benefits have disappeared.

Here is the list of direct benefits you can currently access, as best as I can tell:

• Epcot lounge
• Concierge Collection / Disney Collection
• Merch and food discounts
• ???

 

[sethschroeder]

Pete also brought up the fact that most of the best direct

Like what?

AP and Moonlight are the best ones along with maybe the discounts on food.

None of them are gone just on hiatus. Enough to give me pause to buy direct but waiting to see if and when they come back.

I semi watched the show this morning so missed it if he said more.

Also felt the show was a little cringy at times where it seemed pushy compared to informative but but have just been me.