Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[CastAStone]

Many people don't consider it because they bought DVC instead of a larger trip to Europe or a new car, new deck, etc. I certainly didn't pull any $ out of other savings or investments for DVC. I used my normal vacation funds - regular, not invested, gonna blow it going somewhere (soon) no matter what, fun money!

I suppose I could run the time value of money calculation on everything I buy and feel really depressed all the time. Yikes! I have a budget and I don't worry about the money I spend that I didn't earmark for saving / investing as long as I am meeting my savings / investing goals.

Any $ you spend on anything non-essential COULD be invested. Do some people really figure out how much money they'd have if they didn't buy a new bedroom set and lived with their old one for 10 more years? Just curious.

If you're buying DVC to save money you should consider it. If you're buying it for other reasons (no one buys a bedroom set to save money) there's no need to consider it.

 

[CastAStone]

Math wise DVC can be hard to "pay out" depending on many factors.

I don't think that's true at all. My math, which includes time value of money, currently shows

• All resorts resale pay out over the contract vs renting points at the lower end of current resale prices, with Beach Club really the only one where precisely what you pay for your contract matters in terms of payout
• All resorts resale paying out by a LOT vs booking a studio (or hotel room) at 35% off rack rates from Disney.
• OKW, and SSR direct purchases pay out vs renting points
• Riviera direct pays out vs renting points at $170/point (currently 150 pts for existing members or 200 pts for new members)
• CCV direct pays out vs renting points at $180/point (currently 300 pts for existing members or 1000 pts for new members)
• AKV direct pays out at vs renting points at $171/point (currently 500 pts for direct and resale)

What doesn't pay out? Direct purchases of more expensive resorts. But if you live outside of Florida and are able to make good use of the Gold AP benefit you can make 100 point purchases of all of those pay out too. If you were already going to buy 4 Platinum APs at $1195 each and instead are now able to buy 4 Gold APs at $720, you have saved $1900, or $19/point if you purchased 100 direct points. That makes the purchase extremely cost efficient, much more so than resale, so long as they keep the ability to buy Gold APs around long term.

 

[Lorana]

Math wise DVC can be hard to "pay out" depending on many factors. What I see is how many people who really look at time value of money and are concerned about having it down to the exact penny were really paying cash rates for deluxe properties anyway? Honestly most people who are that analytical are going to have a hard time justifying the cost of a deluxe resort every year etc. The other factor that many of us owners find out after buying in is that the type of room you will stay at will change. Like many of us we bought in based on number of nights in a studio (we bought 160 at first). If we had only stayed in studios it's likely we would have never bought more points since the 160 I think gave us 10 days depending on time of year etc. Of course what happens is your family grows or you just mess up and rent a one bedroom or two bedroom because of availability and then it becomes tough to go back. I honestly think that is where DVC really gets us, it's not the first buy in, but the add ons from there as members start getting the bigger rooms.

If you're buying DVC to save money you should consider it.

The save money aspect is an interesting to me. I did buy DVC to "save money" but it was to allow me to stay at Deluxe Resorts and do 1BRs and 2BRs when traveling with our kids/friends/family, and also to go to Disney more often. I am *definitely* one of those people that when I have to pay cash each time, I balk at paying for Deluxe/Villa resorts (even if I can afford it) because of the price difference between Deluxe and Moderate resorts. We'd do split stays so we could stay at a Deluxe/Villa for a couple days, but otherwise often stayed in Moderates and Value resorts.

We also want to visit more often, and justify several short stays throughout the year. But regular APs at nearly $1200 was too much for us (we're a family of 4); whereas Gold APs at $720 was enough savings to tip us over into wanting APs and being able to do long weeks multiple times. For me, this also means I can still use my vacation time for other trips, and occasionally take the longer week+ trip to Disney (like we're doing next year, hopefully).

With DVC, I'm also looking at Unique Stays I'd never ever pay cash for. If we're able to take our December trip, we're spending 3 nights in a CCV Cabin. If I paid rack cash price, that's $12,354! I'd never pay that. And while, yes, I'm balking a little at the point cost for it - 297, for those who are curious - we have the points, weren't taking any other trips in 2020 due to other travels, and so are looking forward to splurging for our family in an accommodation we've been eying but would never pay cash for.

And maybe I'm EXACTLY the type of DVC owner that Disney wants, lol.

 

[Cowgirl_Jessie]

Big thanks to the gang here!

We signed our contract for $63pp for 150 points at HH! 0 points for 20, 282 21, 150 22 (Feb use year). The more I thought about the contract, the better it seemed for our individual case to have 0 points in 20, with the majority rolled into 21 that we didn’t need to pay dues on.

This was the 4th offer we made; most agents were not surprised, at least not vocally, that we felt low 60s was realistic.

 

[sethschroeder]

This is just anecdotal evidence / experience... We bought two contracts in March during the peak fear of corona virus, in the middle of the stock market crash.

We made multiple offers on additional contracts this week, at prices slightly higher than levels I paid in March. Every offer had been rejected.

Are the equal contracts though? Points/UY/Banked/Stripped

Also looking up the ROFR thread it looks like $102 for 150/160 points at SSR? Those contracts can be had for $95 or less right now its just possible that your UY might not have as many listings so people are holding out or they are so new?

Are you checking multiple sites for listings as well? SSR shouldn't be too hard to find as the year goes by for less.

 

[ldo]

Many people don't consider it because they bought DVC instead of a larger trip to Europe or a new car, new deck, etc.

In 2014, we priced out a Dec DCL cruise and realized that $ would pay for over 50% of a 160 point contract at AKV!

 

[Dean]

I don't think that's true at all. My math, which includes time value of money, currently shows

• All resorts resale pay out over the contract vs renting points at the lower end of current resale prices, with Beach Club really the only one where precisely what you pay for your contract matters in terms of payout
• All resorts resale paying out by a LOT vs booking a studio (or hotel room) at 35% off rack rates from Disney.
• OKW, and SSR direct purchases pay out vs renting points
• Riviera direct pays out vs renting points at $170/point (currently 150 pts for existing members or 200 pts for new members)
• CCV direct pays out vs renting points at $180/point (currently 300 pts for existing members or 1000 pts for new members)
• AKV direct pays out at vs renting points at $171/point (currently 500 pts for direct and resale)

What doesn't pay out? Direct purchases of more expensive resorts. But if you live outside of Florida and are able to make good use of the Gold AP benefit you can make 100 point purchases of all of those pay out too. If you were already going to buy 4 Platinum APs at $1195 each and instead are now able to buy 4 Gold APs at $720, you have saved $1900, or $19/point if you purchased 100 direct points. That makes the purchase extremely cost efficient, much more so than resale, so long as they keep the ability to buy Gold APs around long term.

Personally, from a financial standpoint, I want it to break even in 10 years to be reasonable without including long term assumptions about perks that could be taken away and are specialty options. The life of the RTU is FAR too long for this to be reasonable IMO.

Are the equal contracts though? Points/UY/Banked/Stripped

Also looking up the ROFR thread it looks like $102 for 150/160 points at SSR? Those contracts can be had for $95 or less right now its just possible that your UY might not have as many listings so people are holding out or they are so new?

Are you checking multiple sites for listings as well? SSR shouldn't be too hard to find as the year goes by for less.

No but there are fairly easy ways to value points you do or don't get even adjusting for different use years. Different home resorts is more subjective but ROFR and listing prices gives you some basis for comparison.

In 2014, we priced out a Dec DCL cruise and realized that $ would pay for over 50% of a 160 point contract at AKV!

Apples and oranges though. It might be very applicable to a given person's choices but isn't applicable from just a general $$$ comparison just like using DVC points for a cash exchange must be looked at on the basis of the value and cost of each one individually to make true comparisons.

 

[bookwormde]

7/31 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280-300% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

When I've crunched the numbers for DVC it pays out versus staying at moderate resorts. We've rented DVC points before and it just makes sense for us to buy resale. I might even consider a direct CCV contract if the promotions improve.

 

[Dismrk155]

Prices like the stock market are headed in the wrong direction. I'm taking a wait and see approach till after the general election.

 

[ldo]

Apples and oranges though. It might be very applicable to a given person's choices but isn't applicable from just a general $$$ comparison just like using DVC points for a cash exchange must be looked at on the basis of the value and cost of each one individually to make true comparisons.

It might have had apples and oranges in it, but it was in 1 "leisure travel" pot. We would never have paid cash for DVC rooms. But, we decided we'd forgo the cruise and apply funds to DVC--no math crunching, just a gut decision (as I bet many also do). Otherwise, we might have used those funds to cruise on another cruiseline, take a beach vacation, etc.

 

[glamdring269]

Prices like the stock market are headed in the wrong direction. I'm taking a wait and see approach till after the general election.

I'm just waiting in general. I think we are going to have economic factors in play regardless of the election results that will impact pricing, and I am not anticipating an upward pricing trend for awhile now. I'm actually most interested in seeing how folks react to the state of the parks and resorts once they realize these measures are likely to be in place for at least a year and even when we start to see them relax that I think you are still going to have a segment of the population be more resistant to participating in large crowds than before the virus. This is likely going to have lingering impact on demand for years.

 

[Dismrk155]

I'm just waiting in general. I think we are going to have economic factors in play regardless of the election results that will impact pricing, and I am not anticipating an upward pricing trend for awhile now. I'm actually most interested in seeing how folks react to the state of the parks and resorts once they realize these measures are likely to be in place for at least a year and even when we start to see them relax that I think you are still going to have a segment of the population be more resistant to participating in large crowds than before the virus. This is likely going to have lingering impact on demand for years.

I agree.

 

[Dean]

It might have had apples and oranges in it, but it was in 1 "leisure travel" pot. We would never have paid cash for DVC rooms. But, we decided we'd forgo the cruise and apply funds to DVC--no math crunching, just a gut decision (as I bet many also do). Otherwise, we might have used those funds to cruise on another cruiseline, take a beach vacation, etc.

It's valid for an individual to decide where to spend their money and what's most important to them but it's not valid to compare from a general dollar cost comparison. One is not exclusive of the other either.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

I'm just waiting in general. I think we are going to have economic factors in play regardless of the election results that will impact pricing, and I am not anticipating an upward pricing trend for awhile now. I'm actually most interested in seeing how folks react to the state of the parks and resorts once they realize these measures are likely to be in place for at least a year and even when we start to see them relax that I think you are still going to have a segment of the population be more resistant to participating in large crowds than before the virus. This is likely going to have lingering impact on demand for years.

Not sure if it was in this thread but I have seen mentioned that the airline industry assumes there will not be a return to pre-covid traffic until 2024.

Personally, our plan was to buy into DVC in ~3 years. If prices drop further we'll consider buying now but prices are way too close to peak to justify buying today.

 

[davidl81]

I'm just waiting in general. I think we are going to have economic factors in play regardless of the election results that will impact pricing, and I am not anticipating an upward pricing trend for awhile now. I'm actually most interested in seeing how folks react to the state of the parks and resorts once they realize these measures are likely to be in place for at least a year and even when we start to see them relax that I think you are still going to have a segment of the population be more resistant to participating in large crowds than before the virus. This is likely going to have lingering impact on demand for years.

Here is a thought that just crossed my mind. Cash reservations are going to be restricted for at least the next year for normal rooms. DVC will be fully open and there is a chance that they may be the only rooms available to book at points in 2021 (depending on demand for regular rooms of course). I don’t know if cash rooms will be hard to get, but if they remain restricted I can see DVC maintaining or maybe increasing in value. Just a thought.

 

[Brianstl]

Here is a thought that just crossed my mind. Cash reservations are going to be restricted for at least the next year for normal rooms. DVC will be fully open and there is a chance that they may be the only rooms available to book at points in 2021 (depending on demand for regular rooms of course). I don’t know if cash rooms will be hard to get, but if they remain restricted I can see DVC maintaining or maybe increasing in value. Just a thought.

Disney isn’t going to shut down the resorts to the point that they don’t have rooms to rent when they have park availability. DVC availability isn’t an issue. Companies can’t rent dedicated reservations at $9 a point. The value of DVC isn’t going up.

 

[poofyo101]

Disney isn’t going to shut down the resorts to the point that they don’t have rooms to rent when they have park availability. DVC availability isn’t an issue. Companies can’t rent dedicated reservations at $9 a point. The value of DVC isn’t going up.

That might be true. But some resorts are selling for higher than they were prior to COVID. AKV and Poly are both seemingly selling for higher now.

 

[CastAStone]

That might be true. But some resorts are selling for higher than they were prior to COVID. AKV and Poly are both seemingly selling for higher now.

Offset by sharp declines on BWV and VGF. And I don’t agree with your assessment of Poly. AKV is the outlier.

 

[poofyo101]

Offset by sharp declines on BWV and VGF. And I don’t agree with your assessment of Poly. AKV is the outlier.

I could be wrong. I have been trying to buy another poly for a few weeks and it seems that the inventory is much less than last year when I had purchased 3 polys.

Personally last year when I started shopping I had thought,
AKV was undervalued
VGF was overvalued
Could just be the market is adjusting.