Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

7/12 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-170% of average*

For the week of 7/5 to 7/12 newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[AvidDisReader]

This economy is terrible for those at the bottom end of the economic scale. The thing is there are some professions that are incredibly busy making large amounts of overtime, and with much of the country shut down no where to spend their money. That is why DVC has not seen large decreases--yet. There are many that will be looking on where to spend the pent up savings, like those who are not into saving and have the money burning a whole in their pockets. The next several months will be very interesting. And for those who are wondering, yes Fannie and Freddie have agreements with all the lenders to offer 6 month deferments so home owners will not lose their homes, at least for the near future.

 

[Brianstl]

I think Jerry from the DVC Store gave a pretty good description of where the market is at right now on the DVC Show. A really honest description from a broker that really hasn't been what you hear from other brokers.

 

[Brianstl]

Pete, also, said the DVC has had a $2 million mechanics lien placed against them for work done at SSR during the DVC Show. If that is correct, they won't be buying back anything for a long time.

 

[Ruttangel]

I think Jerry from the DVC Store gave a pretty good description of where the market is at right now on the DVC Show. A really honest description from a broker that really hasn't been what you hear from other brokers.

I just watched the show and he’s right, I wasn’t looking for a contract until I heard no ROFR and the chance of getting a bargain. Buyers are being super aggressive as what do they have to lose if Disney aren’t buying back?
The only problem is if Covid continues the bottom could be some months away (6-18)

 

[RoseGold]

Pete, also, said the DVC has had a $2 million mechanics lien placed against them for work done at SSR during the DVC Show

Don't normally watch this show, but this was interesting. The lien doesn't necessarily mean anything, but yea, interesting. DVC is used to dealing with such big numbers and are probably sweating California tower a lot more than our piddly 15K contracts.

If they want to sell property, they've got to get California going.

 

[Matty B13]

Don't normally watch this show, but this was interesting. The lien doesn't necessarily mean anything, but yea, interesting.

I would be concerned if I owned SSR, this doesn't look good as far as management goes or for maintenance fees. Unless they were in some dispute over a defect in the renovations.

 

[CastAStone]

I think Jerry from the DVC Store gave a pretty good description of where the market is at right now on the DVC Show. A really honest description from a broker that really hasn't been what you hear from other brokers.

I’ll have to listen to that. I’ve never been able to get into any of the DVC pods, but that specifically sounds interesting.

 

[CastAStone]

Pete, also, said the DVC has had a $2 million mechanics lien placed against them for work done at SSR during the DVC Show. If that is correct, they won't be buying back anything for a long time.

The Liens against Disney right now are spectacular.
May:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/permits-2020.962646/page-5#post-9315122June:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/permits-2020.962646/page-4#post-9312616I wouldn’t read anything into it other than Disney has probably unilaterally increased their payment terms to extend their working capital. It’s not a nice thing to do but it’s getting increasingly common for large companies.

 

[RoseGold]

I would be concerned if I owned SSR, this doesn't look good as far as management goes or for maintenance fees. Unless they were in some dispute over a defect in the renovations.

There were no receipts or anything, so who knows? Maybe it's already cleared even?

This could be anything from accounting issues with furloughs to disputes over huge construction projects. Just because there's a lien doesn't mean it's right.

 

[RoseGold]

Those liens are very interesting. The big ones all look like subs against the contractor, which you know Disney has buttoned up.

Anyway, I thought this was kind of a clickbaity, dumb thing to say and doesn't mean much to me.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

I think Jerry from the DVC Store gave a pretty good description of where the market is at right now on the DVC Show. A really honest description from a broker that really hasn't been what you hear from other brokers.

Is that the most recent episode? I started skipping the show after skier_pete left.

 

[Brianstl]

Is that the most recent episode? I started skipping the show after skier_pete left.

Today’s episode. I miss skier_pete on the show. I really thought he brought the most useful information to the show.

 

[CarolMN]

Pete, also, said the DVC has had a $2 million mechanics lien placed against them for work done at SSR during the DVC Show. If that is correct, they won't be buying back anything for a long time.

Don't normally watch this show, but this was interesting. The lien doesn't necessarily mean anything, but yea, interesting. DVC is used to dealing with such big numbers and are probably sweating California tower a lot more than our piddly 15K contracts.

If they want to sell property, they've got to get California going.

I would be concerned if I owned SSR, this doesn't look good as far as management goes or for maintenance fees. Unless they were in some dispute over a defect in the renovations.

I think it is most likely that the Disney employees responsible for the SSR renovation contracts & payments are on furlough.

SSR renovation $$ come from DVC capital reserves (money belongs to members) and that money is held separately from Disney funds. So the money to pay the contractors is there and it's just the bureaucracy that's causing the delay. The contractors are just protecting themselves.

Capital reserves cannot be used for ROFR and the SSR funds can't be used for anything other than replacing DVC SSR capital items.

 

[Kickstart]

This economy is terrible for those at the bottom end of the economic scale. The thing is there are some professions that are incredibly busy making large amounts of overtime, and with much of the country shut down no where to spend their money. That is why DVC has not seen large decreases--yet. There are many that will be looking on where to spend the pent up savings, like those who are not into saving and have the money burning a whole in their pockets. The next several months will be very interesting. And for those who are wondering, yes Fannie and Freddie have agreements with all the lenders to offer 6 month deferments so home owners will not lose their homes, at least for the near future.

This...

I'm hoping to buy into DVC at a discount, but I wonder how far prices will correct. I think there are a lot of people working from home, not spending money on eating/drinking out, and not spending money on trips... or really anything. The stock market has also been quite resilient with the fed pumping money in.

Yes, I still think there are more people out there who are deciding to sell then those looking to buy (whether it's because they're in a financial pinch or they just decided DVC isn't worth it to them with all the restrictions), but I'm also thinking there may be some support from those people who were not adversely affected and have a desire to plan a post covid vacation and are picking up some extra points.

It will be an interesting 6 months... totally agree!

 

[Kickstart]

7/12 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-170% of average*

For the week of 7/5 to 7/12 newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

Sorry if it's obvious to others... but could you provide some context/description of what this means? I feel like you're sharing useful information but I'm not able to understand the significance, except that there seem to be more newly listed contracts than at some other time in the past.

What is the average and what is it being compared to (previous week, same week last year?)
What does Lower and Upper level mean?
How are you directly observing the lower level... and is upper level an estimate?

 

[BruinEd03]

Is that the most recent episode? I started skipping the show after skier_pete left.

What happend to skier_pete? When and why did he leave?

 

[bookwormde]

Sorry if it's obvious to others... but could you provide some context/description of what this means? I feel like you're sharing useful information but I'm not able to understand the significance, except that there seem to be more newly listed contracts than at some other time in the past.

What is the average and what is it being compared to (previous week, same week last year?)
What does Lower and Upper level mean?
How are you directly observing the lower level... and is upper level an estimate?

The basis is listed in the beginning of the thread, but the baseline is observation of sales over the months before covid. The data is from 5 resellers that number their contract in a way to at allows time sequencing. One of the tools that I used went OOS so that is why the upper estimate as compared to the lower directly observed. In practical terms I have a spreadsheet where each morning I review each site and enter the new contracts that show up.

 

[bookwormde]

7/13 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 200-220% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

What happend to skier_pete? When and why did he leave?

The threads speculating on why have been deleted so I don't think the moderators want us discussing it. Probably best for us to not discuss it any further here.