Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Brianstl]

Long term DVC will hold its value. If prices goes down for a year does not mean anything long term. DVC will do whatever it takes to protect its brand once we are out of the corona. If they don’t who are going to buy direct if resale pricing have plummeted?

The same people who buy direct now. Pixie dusted vacationers and those who want a blue card. Disney has been preparing themselves for a bottoming out in resale values for years now as the have taken away privileges from resale buyers and put in restrictions on where resale buyers can stay in an attempt to make resale appear as a far inferior product.

 

[Cyberc1978]

The same people who buy direct now. Pixie dusted vacationers and those who want a blue card. Disney has been preparing themselves for a bottoming out in resale values for years now as the have taken away privileges from resale buyers and put in restrictions on where resale buyers can stay in an attempt to make resale appear as a far inferior product.

I agree with you as far as what DVC have done but I disagree that the resale prices will go bottom out. There are many years until 2042 and beyond a lot can happen. New management etc and DVC have absolutely no interest in a resale value of close to $0 just like most other timeshares.

 

[pirate33]

This is what I did late last year when I purchased my SAP contract at SSR [ . . . ]
wered the price

I am probably being clueless but what does SAP mean here?

 

[Cyberc1978]

I am probably being clueless but what does SAP mean here?

Sleep Around Points

 

[bookwormde]

Lower inventory appears to be a common thread:

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-april-2020/
"In the last 4 weeks, DVCRM has sold 290 contracts compared to 280 contracts over that same period a year ago. Since March, inventory has shrunk from over 520 listings to under 360 at the time of this article. That is an over 30% reduction in inventory in less than 2 months. If inventory continues to shrink, prices will likely not go down, and could even begin to go up again."

Yes have seen the same thing with DVCresale market and Fidelity. though others have stayed in typical inventory range or even have more.

https://www.atimeshare.com/brand/disney/ and https://www.**********.com/dvc-resale-listings/ both appear to be above their average inventory so it is not consistent though as a total I do think inventory is down some

 

[pirate33]

Sleep Around Points

I get it! We had a fairly large SSR contract for that purpose that I sold last year. “SAP” sums it up!

 

[Cyberc1978]

I get it! We had a fairly large SSR contract for that purpose that I sold last year. “SAP” sums it up!

Why did you sell it?

 

[macman123]

The same people who buy direct now. Pixie dusted vacationers and those who want a blue card. Disney has been preparing themselves for a bottoming out in resale values for years now as the have taken away privileges from resale buyers and put in restrictions on where resale buyers can stay in an attempt to make resale appear as a far inferior product.

I was planning on getting 155 points direct so I could do new resorts such as RVA.......

 

[pirate33]

Why did you sell it?

We had a lot of points (more than 800 total), which I had bought in part because of a large family event 4 or 5 years ago. Prices had gotten so high that I thought I would lighten up our position and take some profits because our other contracts at BLT and VGC are plenty for our regular family trips. (And I have no intention of selling those because I love those properties and don’t want to lose the grandfathered privileges.)

As to purchasing now, earlier this year we had another stay at VGF and liked it so much that I started thinking of getting some points there. I’ve stayed there several times, but this time I had to really struggle to get reservations at seven months for a 1BR for a January stay. I’m on the West Coast and had to get online at 5:00 a.m. several days in a row to grab my slot, which was not magical. At the risk of sounding like a Disney marketing person, VGC really does feel like “home,” and I like just hanging out there. The premium location for 40 years seems like a good value proposition. I can see going there for a solid week or more every year because as I get older I have more freedom to be away from the office and retirement is within sight.

Short term, prices are coming down, and we have another big family event coming in 2022 where I may need (want) extra points. So the timing seems good, and I’m content to buy a stripped contract because I don’t need the points immediately (and likewise have plenty of time to wait for a favorable deal).

 

[bookwormde]

5/4 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 200% of average

 

[chalee94]

Long term DVC will hold its value. If prices goes down for a year does not mean anything long term. DVC will do whatever it takes to protect its brand once we are out of the corona. If they don’t who are going to buy direct if resale pricing have plummeted?

I keep saying it but I'll say it again:

1. DVC's value is fundamentally based on the demand for onsite accommodations - not ROFR (ROFR pricing decisions are a consequence of that demand but they don't drive it)
2. DVC is not ROFRing contracts to protect the brand, but to annoy potential buyers into purchasing direct (and sometimes take advantage of their better information about market valuations)
3. Other timeshares continue to sell direct for thousands of dollars while resales can be had for $1 on ebay - the last question is not consistent with what we already know about timeshares

If the parks are a lot different and less "fun" for the next few years, then that will continue to affect demand, and therefore valuations, for DVC.

And ROFR only kicks in AFTER you have found a willing buyer, so if you have to sell lower than some expected ROFR value to get the contract sold, then that is the price that will be agreed upon. Disney might take the contract instead of the individual but ROFR will not "protect" the pricing.

 

[chalee94]

Wow! That is unprecedented, is it not? Even during past recessions, did Disney ever stop ROFR cold turkey like that? I sense some amaaaaazing resale prices in the near future.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/dvc-and-the-great-recession-of-2007-2014.3767128/
As I said in this thread, "other than a handful of BCV contracts, Disney dropped all ROFR activity for around 18 months or so, IIRC (during the last recession)."

 

[kevtlas]

Sleep Around Points

​

Perfectly describes my SSR points!

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

So ROFR doesn't seem to be a big concern, but, man, these prices really aren't dropping much. I still can't believe that so many SSR are still $100 and above.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

Perfectly describes my SSR points!

I'm warming up to the idea of buying a SSR contract for SAP lol We also dont hate SSR either and the points are dirt cheap.

 

[Brianstl]

I agree with you as far as what DVC have done but I disagree that the resale prices will go bottom out. There are many years until 2042 and beyond a lot can happen. New management etc and DVC have absolutely no interest in a resale value of close to $0 just like most other timeshares.

I don't think DVC will ever drop to the price of some other timeshares, but I do think we are going to be looking at a pretty steep drop in price. This is a perfect storm for a big price drop. It isn't just the tanked economy, the fear of travel and decreased demand for resale contracts that is going to depress prices.

We have a situation that is going to lead to unprecedented downward pressure on the price members can rent out points for. First, the effective price Disney actually charges for hotel rooms is going drop substantially because of the economy and the fear of travel. Second, there is significant segment of the point rental community that feels wronged by point rental companies and DVC owners over lack of refunds during the resort closures and they won't be coming back to the rental market. Third, there is an even larger segment of the point rental community that while they have not been burned to this point are aware of what happened to other renters and will be very hesitant to put themselves into to position where it could happen to them in the future. Fourth, a large segment of DVC owners are over the age of 65 and will be concerned about doing anything like a WDW trip until there is an effective vaccine. That is most likely years away and that will lead that group to flood the rental market with points they won't use.

DVC resale is facing owners in a weakened financial position, a significantly decreased value of points on the rental market, a sizable group of owners unable to use their points and smaller demand for the product.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I'm warming up to the idea of buying a SSR contract for SAP lol We also dont hate SSR either and the points are dirt cheap.

And I was just complaining that they are too high--I guess perspective!

 

[Sandisw]

I'm warming up to the idea of buying a SSR contract for SAP lol We also dont hate SSR either and the points are dirt cheap.

I have 500 at SSR for just that reason! Got them in 2017 for around $73/$75 a points,

I of course own 175 at RIV for food and wind and flower and garden, and am now purchasing BLT to replace my BWV points for Dec stays!

So far, been happy with how I have been able to trade out, especially that it allows me to do 1 bedrooms which makes 7 month choices easier!

 

[ChipNdale8887]

I have 500 at SSR for just that reason! Got them in 2017 for around $73/$75 a points,

I of course own 175 at RIV for food and wind and flower and garden, and am now purchasing BLT to replace my BWV points for Dec stays!

So far, been happy with how I have been able to trade out, especially that it allows me to do 1 bedrooms which makes 7 month choices easier!

We are also considering BLT! We plan on having kids soon and nothing NOTHING beats walking to the MK lol. Also could use SSR points pretty easily at BLT Lake view rooms for june and july months it seems!

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I have 500 at SSR for just that reason! Got them in 2017 for around $73/$75 a points,

Wow--what a deal!