Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Cyberc1978]

I've been watching VGF. Pricing was at 155-160 the last couple weeks, and is finally dipping to 150-155.

My target is 2017 pricing, so about 145, and we might get there!

I think we are already there. This week I made an offer for a loaded(2019 and onwards) 125 contract. We ended up agreeing to $145 and sellers paying closing and me paying 2020 dues.

 

[Cyberc1978]

When evaluating a contract I look at:
UY Oct (our personal UY)
Size How many points are available reaching back 2 years, current and next year
#Pts Number of points in contract annually
Banked Useable points in other words, points that do not expire before you can actually rent/transfer/use

I take the price (my offer) plus closing costs and current year MF's. My goal is not to pay MF's on past years. That is the total cost. I then rent (now I'll likely transfer) the two years but not current or next year. I take that income off the cost of total cost and then go forward using points. At some point I will likely flip the contract. Taxes factor in on rental or transfer.

I'm currently looking for a 100-160 pt AKL. My goal price for 100 points is $90 PP (we'll see in 2-3 mo). Buy 100 pts at $90. Transfer 200 pts @ $16 = $3200. Closing $600+/- and MF's (1 yr) $800+/-

100 x $90 = $9000 + $600 + $800 = $10400 - $3200 = $7200 net or $72 PP

It's really just a way to purchase extra points from a loaded contract and reduce the cost of the contract. I'd spend a lot of time reading disboards and learning all you can about DVC. I'm not a financial guru or anything, I just try to get the best deal possible and this has worked well for us. Good luck!

This is what I did late last year when I purchased my SAP contract at SSR it came with last year and current years points. I didn’t pay dues on last years points.

I paid $103 pp and rented the extra 160 Points at $19 pp that lowered the price to $84 plus closing costs.

 

[bookwormde]

5/2 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 25% of average

Fidelity continues to have only about 5 new listings a week which appears to be far below historic levels

I am guessing that given that historically fidelity is the reseller that DVD/DVC provides to member who ask about selling, that with DVD closed that those who are not familiar with the resale market, may be delayed in listing if they need or want to sell, These historically come on the market somewhat at somewhat lower than average asking during times of distress

 

[bookwormde]

5/3 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 60% of average

 

[macman123]

Lower inventory appears to be a common thread:

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-april-2020/
"In the last 4 weeks, DVCRM has sold 290 contracts compared to 280 contracts over that same period a year ago. Since March, inventory has shrunk from over 520 listings to under 360 at the time of this article. That is an over 30% reduction in inventory in less than 2 months. If inventory continues to shrink, prices will likely not go down, and could even begin to go up again."

 

[RoseGold]

"In the last 4 weeks, DVCRM has sold 290 contracts compared to 280 contracts over that same period a year ago. Since March, inventory has shrunk from over 520 listings to under 360 at the time of this article. That is an over 30% reduction in inventory in less than 2 months. If inventory continues to shrink, prices will likely not go down, and could even begin to go up again."

Haha, good one, guys.

 

[Cyberc1978]

Haha, good one, guys.

Yeah brokers always have an interest in the prices being as high as possible. Lower prices = lower commission.

 

[Brianstl]

DVCRM had zero buy backs for the entire month of April. The last buy back we observed was on March 30th.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-april-20-report/

 

[pirate33]

I’m a VGF fan and looking at finally buying a contract there. Based on what I can find, it seems the lowest resale price has been about $120? Does anyone know of a lower price in the past?

 

[Cyberc1978]

I’m a VGF fan and looking at finally buying a contract there. Based on what I can find, it seems the lowest resale price has been about $120? Does anyone know of a lower price in the past?

If you look in the ROFR thread you will find one sneaking by ROfR at $110. But have in mind that it’s years ago.

 

[pirate33]

If you look in the ROFR thread you will find one sneaking by ROfR at $110. But have in mind that it’s years ago.

It’s interesting that the price went down that much from the original direct price ($145) in the absence of a recession and then soared so high. I wonder what the reasons were. Perhaps people who financed feeling overextended. I also have read about people who bought small contracts with the expectation of reserving studios, especially because of the high point requirements for VGF rooms, only to find that too many people had done the same thing and were finding it hard to reserve even at 11 months. Major point being the value of VGF has not been tested in a recession.

I’m about to make some lowball offers on contracts. While I would like about 300 points ultimately, I’m now thinking of buying one for about that half that amount now (150 or 160 points) if I can get a reasonable deal and waiting to see what happens in the fall and winter to decide whether and if to buy the second one.

BTW, my sense of the new inventory slowing down is that people who don’t have a pressing need to sell will hold their contracts, especially because dues aren’t due until early next year. Someone mentioned that perhaps potential sellers who are less informed about the process are not getting referrals from Disney at the moment. Who gives those referrals typically? MS is open I think.

 

[Jhoyer5150]

Yeah I'll take the other side of the bet about prices going up DVC resale, lol. That's very optimistic language, to be generous. Zero ROFR means the safety net has been removed. Unemployment Friday will show >15% nationally (peak in 2009: 10.4%). That's the first place to look for new sellers. Nobody just coming back from WDW who is looking into DVC. Where is the incremental demand going to come from? I don't see it. I do expect that inventory to be higher as we drag on with no usable product and people who can no longer afford to pay on a luxury item such as a timeshare.

 

[heynowirv]

Don't I wish!
Def. not me, but it will be interesting to see if it gets through ROFR. And, if it does, I would like to know what the buyer offered. (and if he/she would be my new BFF and share those points)

If they are on these boards we'll know soon what the selling price was.

 

[CastAStone]

Haha, good one, guys.

Really though. I've been tracking the number of contracts for sale on their site:


But here's the flipside of it - average listing price of what's on the market. Despite falling Supply, asking prices are still coming down (which for anyone who didn't have to take macroeconomics is indicative of demand falling faster than supply):

 

[Noah_t]

I am SO jealous. Nice find. Did you find it on one of the major resale sites or was this something you stumbled across more on your own? And may I ask what asking was?

No need to be jealous. As the parks will not be opening anytime soon prices are only going to head in one direction. Disney is in some real trouble and I imagine buying DVC contracts to be very low on their priorities.

 

[Noah_t]

I've been watching VGF. Pricing was at 155-160 the last couple weeks, and is finally dipping to 150-155.

My target is 2017 pricing, so about 145, and we might get there!

I would be surprised if we dont get their in the next week.

 

[mamaofsix]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-april-20-report/

Wow! That is unprecedented, is it not? Even during past recessions, did Disney ever stop ROFR cold turkey like that? I sense some amaaaaazing resale prices in the near future.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I would be surprised if we dont get their in the next week.

We are there already. Just received the contract for a 125 points VGf contract. Agreed price is $145 and sellers paying closing.

 

[Noah_t]

As someone who bought a contract about a year ago, BLT 225 Points Fully Loaded for 132/Point I am really feeling buyers remorse right now. I predict we will see some historically low prices in the near future. Really hoping I am as wrong about this prediction as I was about DVC holding its value. I definitley lost some credibility with the finance department. Thankfully she loved Aulani so much she will attach quite a few bonus points to that decision.

 

[Cyberc1978]

As someone who bought a contract about a year ago, BLT 225 Points Fully Loaded for 132/Point I am really feeling buyers remorse right now. I predict we will see some historically low prices in the near future. Really hoping I am as wrong about this prediction as I was about DVC holding its value. I definitley lost some credibility with the finance department. Thankfully she loved Aulani so much she will attach quite a few bonus points to that decision.

Long term DVC will hold its value. If prices goes down for a year does not mean anything long term. DVC will do whatever it takes to protect its brand once we are out of the corona. If they don’t who are going to buy direct if resale pricing have plummeted?