Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[DisMomKY]

4/25 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30% of average

I noticed there weren’t many new ones posted yesterday! I’m trying to wait out a good deal so hopefully today will be better for postings

 

[bookwormde]

I noticed there weren’t many new ones posted yesterday! I’m trying to wait out a good deal so hopefully today will be better for postings

weekends are typically much slower for postings, unfortunately I did not have historic information on that differential so I am just using general average which causes the percentages to see saw

 

[Brianstl]

This is one to definitely keep an eye on. It is at the resort that has been the most bought back by volume and percentage so far this year, a low point contract, is fully loaded and is 24% below the average OKW resale price in March.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...st-for--formatting-tool.3798344/post-61819475

 

[E2ME2]

This is one to definitely keep an eye on. It is at the resort that has been the most bought back by volume and percentage so far this year, a low point contract, is fully loaded and is 24% below the average OKW resale price in March.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...st-for--formatting-tool.3798344/post-61819475

Agreed - we're all watching that one.
If it gets wiaved, It may be the first crack in the ROFR dam......

 

[CastAStone]

Agreed - we're all watching that one.
If it gets wiaved, It may be the first crack in the ROFR dam......

If it gets waived, it’s a free for All.

 

[bookwormde]

Yes it will tell us if DVD has any interest in taking contracts back into inventory with no near term chance of selling them

From what I have seen DVD has not done this in general except on rare cases when they were protecting the pricing on new resorts

 

[ELMC]

I don't think that Disney views ROFR in the same way we do. We view it as a tool for them to maintain the prices of their resorts on the resale market. I think they view it as a way of acquiring needed points and possibly as a way of preventing an image-tarnishing price from passing. But that's far different from their actively using ROFR to prop up prices - I think that may be more of a figment of our imagination. (See what I did there? Figment? Disney character?) Remember, there's more to ROFR that we don't know than we do; that's part of its effectiveness. So if this OKW contract slips by for $75 we may view it as an opening of the floodgates, but that doesn't necessarily make it so. What I agree it will do is embolden people to be bolder and more aggressive in their offers, and it's about time. I always felt that bidding more to give yourself a better chance of passing ROFR was a fallacy anyway.

 

[jarestel]

I don't think that Disney views ROFR in the same way we do.

I think this is absolutely true. ROFR was always a hidden and mysterious process, and even in the best of times we would see higher priced contracts ROFR'd while lower priced ones at the same resort sailed through. In any event, Disney has a set budget for buybacks just like they do for every other expenditure and it's not unlimited so buying back every contract that violated some sort of bottom line just wouldn't be possible.

I do think Disney has things they look for when evaluating whether they want a contract back but price doesn't seem to be at the top of that list.

 

[DaveNan]

I don't think that Disney views ROFR in the same way we do. We view it as a tool for them to maintain the prices of their resorts on the resale market. I think they view it as a way of acquiring needed points and possibly as a way of preventing an image-tarnishing price from passing. But that's far different from their actively using ROFR to prop up prices - I think that may be more of a figment of our imagination. (See what I did there? Figment? Disney character?) Remember, there's more to ROFR that we don't know than we do; that's part of its effectiveness. So if this OKW contract slips by for $75 we may view it as an opening of the floodgates, but that doesn't necessarily make it so. What I agree it will do is embolden people to be bolder and more aggressive in their offers, and it's about time. I always felt that bidding more to give yourself a better chance of passing ROFR was a fallacy anyway.

I agree. I posted a couple of years ago on the same topic. I don't believe Disney artificially inflates the resale market by "protecting" the value of DVC by using ROFR to maintain a high resale market. Disney has a responsibility to represent the interest of stockholders and maximize profit. What Disney is doing is trying to increase the value of direct points versus resale points. They have added member benefits, increased the number of points required to get member benefits multiple times, increased their flexibility in flipping ROFR points by lifting the UY not changeable restriction (only for them, not for owners) and finally booking restrictions. This difference in value not only justifies buying direct, but it also intentionally decreases the value of resale. They actually want a lower resale market. They want to be able to buy cheap points to resell them for a higher margin.

They only buy resale (exercise ROFR) to resell those points quickly. They do not want to maintain an inventory of sold out resort points. They purchase enough points to meet the resale needs they have. They will buy enough of the "cheapest" points available to them in the short term (from the pool in ROFR) to meet the demand they have for resale points. Ultimately, they want resale points at the lowest possible value. That way they make maximum money on the flipped the points.

At some extreme, super low resale values may impact the ability to sell direct points. But in general many direct buyers are not aware of the resale, view resale points significantly less valuable, or just want the "real magic" by buying direct. Additionally, almost all other timeshares show us having resale available for pennies on the dollar does not stop direct sales from happening.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

This is one to definitely keep an eye on. It is at the resort that has been the most bought back by volume and percentage so far this year, a low point contract, is fully loaded and is 24% below the average OKW resale price in March.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...st-for--formatting-tool.3798344/post-61819475

I think Disney is buying back more OKW so they can resell them with the extended expiration. I think it makes it easier for them if they get rid of as many of the 2042 contracts as they can.

 

[Anuhea35]

I really hope I’m not getting everyone’s hopes up for nothing. (Kinda why I wasn’t gonna post it) I went into this deal cause I wanted to see what would happen.....and cause I’m bored being stuck at home all day

On the bright side, now I’m not the only one waiting for my brokers email

 

[Erik Rhoda]

I agree. I posted a couple of years ago on the same topic. I don't believe Disney artificially inflates the resale market by "protecting" the value of DVC by using ROFR to maintain a high resale market. Disney has a responsibility to represent the interest of stockholders and maximize profit. What Disney is doing is trying to increase the value of direct points versus resale points. They have added member benefits, increased the number of points required to get member benefits multiple times, increased their flexibility in flipping ROFR points by lifting the UY not changeable restriction (only for them, not for owners) and finally booking restrictions. This difference in value not only justifies buying direct, but it also intentionally decreases the value of resale. They actually want a lower resale market. They want to be able to buy cheap points to resell them for a higher margin.

They only buy resale (exercise ROFR) to resell those points quickly. They do not want to maintain an inventory of sold out resort points. They purchase enough points to meet the resale needs they have. They will buy enough of the "cheapest" points available to them in the short term (from the pool in ROFR) to meet the demand they have for resale points. Ultimately, they want resale points at the lowest possible value. That way they make maximum money on the flipped the points.

At some extreme, super low resale values may impact the ability to sell direct points. But in general many direct buyers are not aware of the resale, view resale points significantly less valuable, or just want the "real magic" by buying direct. Additionally, almost all other timeshares show us having resale available for pennies on the dollar does not stop direct sales from happening.

Sometimes they do buy up large amounts for inventory. I was talking to my Guide 3 months ago and he said they had son many SSR points that they loaded them into the guides data base like RIV and AUL so they could just sell them vs having to put in a request.

 

[bookwormde]

I really hope I’m not getting everyone’s hopes up for nothing. (Kinda why I wasn’t gonna post it) I went into this deal cause I wanted to see what would happen.....and cause I’m bored being stuck at home all day

On the bright side, now I’m not the only one waiting for my brokers email

I did pretty much the same thing in 2010 there was an OKW contract for $52 and I offered $45 thinking first that the owner would not accept it and if they did that DVD would ROFR it. 45 days later it was mine., And this was a time that while limited they were selling OKW direct

I think you have a very good chance of getting it.

 

[bookwormde]

Sometimes they do buy up large amounts for inventory. I was talking to my Guide 3 months ago and he said they had son many SSR points that they loaded them into the guides data base like RIV and AUL so they could just sell them vs having to put in a request.

I wonder if that was intentionally taking them into inventory, or if they had a bunch of SSR sales fall through

 

[DougEMG]

I don't think that Disney views ROFR in the same way we do. We view it as a tool for them to maintain the prices of their resorts on the resale market. I think they view it as a way of acquiring needed points and possibly as a way of preventing an image-tarnishing price from passing. But that's far different from their actively using ROFR to prop up prices - I think that may be more of a figment of our imagination. (See what I did there? Figment? Disney character?) Remember, there's more to ROFR that we don't know than we do; that's part of its effectiveness. So if this OKW contract slips by for $75 we may view it as an opening of the floodgates, but that doesn't necessarily make it so. What I agree it will do is embolden people to be bolder and more aggressive in their offers, and it's about time. I always felt that bidding more to give yourself a better chance of passing ROFR was a fallacy anyway.

Agree. Until owners need to sell and lower what they will take you aren't going to see big drops in price.

 

[Erik Rhoda]

Agree. Until owners need to sell and lower what they will take you aren't going to see big drops in price.

Well BCV is already being offered at $119. I would offer $110-114. I think that is a big drop in a short time.

 

[ELMC]

At some extreme, super low resale values may impact the ability to sell direct points. But in general many direct buyers are not aware of the resale, view resale points significantly less valuable, or just want the "real magic" by buying direct. Additionally, almost all other timeshares show us having resale available for pennies on the dollar does not stop direct sales from happening.

I agree that it's possible but not likely. I envision the meeting going something like this:

Prospective buyer: What can I get for this contract if I put it on the resale market?
DVC Salesperson: Why would you ever want to sell?
Prospective buyer: Good point. (Bites into free ice cream).

 

[ELMC]

Agree. Until owners need to sell and lower what they will take you aren't going to see big drops in price.

I agree this will be a big part, but I also think that owners who simply want to sell can influence this as well. If they're just done with it, they might just take whatever they're offered. And if the market is coming down then what they're offered will be less. I hate to use the car analogy, but how many of us just took whatever the dealer gave us for our trade-in when we bought a new car. I know I've been guilty of that a few times.

 

[Yankee626]

Just saw a SSR 1200 point contract sell @ 76 a point

 

[bookwormde]

4/26 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average