Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[RaymOOOnd]

Sorry to disappoint some people on here but the market may be starting to recover

 

[Deploraboo]

33 minutes later, maybe not.

 

[mlayton14]

Wish we could have stayed there back in the 80's, sounds like the place was a lot more serene with a lot more landscaping.

80s? Try 2010 or so when they had much more landscaping , less wide concrete walkways , a nice beach area with unobstructed views of the lagoon, and an mini oasis in the lobby ... god I miss that place

 

[poofyo101]

33 minutes later, maybe not.

haha

 

[RanDIZ]

Sorry to disappoint some people on here but the market may be starting to recover

Don’t let 2 up days fool you. Highs of Oct 2007 to March 2008 saw a 54% drop. We haven’t even come close to that yet and are in far worse shape then that time period. Earnings season and unemployment will be horrible! We will test the lows again and prob even drop further.

 

[Deploraboo]

2475 on S&P was a precise Fibonacci resistance point. Possible we go back to 2700 area but heading back to retest lows is likely too, if not mid 1700s. From 2100 downward would certainly look to add.

 

[bookwormde]

3/25 update

less new contracts than usual

no new notable data

 

[TraderSamWDW]

80s? Try 2010 or so when they had much more landscaping , less wide concrete walkways , a nice beach area with unobstructed views of the lagoon, and an mini oasis in the lobby ... god I miss that place

The removal of the waterfall just killed it

 

[RaymOOOnd]

well if people want to stay panicky for months it helps younger investors who can stick to putting some of their paycheck in every 2 weeks without losing their cool and selling.

But I think the panic needs to die down soon. The novelty of things simply wears off and I think at this point the national response is beginning to encourage people (Those who don't hate the president too much to admit it)

 

[Brian Noble]

Goldman Sachs thinks [new unemployment] could top 2,000,000 in the week ending next Thursday. It took more than three months for that to happen during the Great Recession.

Looks like Goldman was wrong. The reported number?

3.28 million.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-long-run-of-american-job-growth-has-ended-11585215000
That's almost the first five months of job losses in the Great Recession.

 

[Brianstl]

Looks like Goldman was wrong. The reported number?

3.28 million.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-long-run-of-american-job-growth-has-ended-11585215000
That's almost the first five months of job losses in the Great Recession.

I thought I read reports this week that many thought the number was going to be closer to 4 million. I think it “only” coming close to 3.3 is one of the reasons for the market pop.

 

[snappy]

An outlier number that was floating around of 7 million was mentioned this morning on CNBC.

 

[E2ME2]

What's the lowest & highest resale price you have seen for the resort you are interested in, in the last week?
I have searched about 8 different sites, and found SSR at a Low of $90/300Pts and a High of $136/65Pts.
Doesn't look like the Low has dropped significantly yet ??
What are others observing?
And is there a place to find ALL DVC listings for comparison?
ET

 

[poofyo101]

What's the lowest & highest resale price you have seen for the resort you are interested in, in the last week?
I have searched about 8 different sites, and found SSR at a Low of $90/300Pts and a High of $136/65Pts.
Doesn't look like the Low has dropped significantly yet ??
What are others observing?
And is there a place to find ALL DVC listings for comparison?
ET

Nothing has changed yet as disney is still ROFR contracts.

 

[Brianstl]

Nothing has changed yet as disney is still ROFR contracts.

what was the last contract they exercised ROFR on?

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Nothing has changed yet as disney is still ROFR contracts.

Not to mention that people have been out of work for 2 weeks max. Prices won't start to move until inventory is greater than demand which takes time.

I can't remember where I saw a chart but IIRC resale prices for DVC during the recession did not bottom until ~2012. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong about that.

 

[poofyo101]

what was the last contract they exercised ROFR on?

I had an AKV ROFR'd last week at 103 with the dues included.

 

[SL6827]

Ya, I don't think we will see a big influx of contracts at reduced prices this week, but give it 4-5 more weeks and we might.

 

[bookwormde]

3/26 was below and 3/27 was near average new listings

AKV has dropped to 107

OKW pending sales are consistently below 100

BLT pending sales are mostly in the 130s

 

[Spork24]

I think we are 3-6 months from seeing the deals show up. I don’t expect a fire sale or anything like that but I do expect 20-25% drop in prices across the board by the end of the year.