Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[MICKIMINI]

Seen a 50 point Beach Club for 140/point.

I saw that too - wrong UY. I looked at three major resellers this morning and prices haven't dropped by much - yet.

 

[Deploraboo]

Now hearing park Openings will be staggered, when they actually do open. Star Wars hotel and reflections on ice, and service likely to be limited for some time even when parks reopen, stands to reason. Seems Tron ok though as close to complete.

BK / acquisition is not out of the question here. unbelievable change of circumstances from just one month ago. Makes you wonder what Iger knew when he resigned out of the blue.

 

[SL6827]

Now hearing park Openings will be staggered, when they actually do open. Star Wars hotel and reflections on ice, and service likely to be limited for some time even when parks reopen, stands to reason. Seems Tron ok though as close to complete.

BK / acquisition is not out of the question here. unbelievable change of circumstances from just one month ago. Makes you wonder what Iger knew when he resigned out of the blue.

Yes, makes you wonder if he knew more. I hope they don't go BK or if they are required by someone else that my two grand in Disney gift cards will still be good, ugghh.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

If there was a remote fear of bankruptcy at this point in time, would they be paying cast members? And wall street has not reacted THAT harshly, its P/e is still around 15ish.

 

[mort1331]

Now hearing park Openings will be staggered, when they actually do open. Star Wars hotel and reflections on ice, and service likely to be limited for some time even when parks reopen, stands to reason. Seems Tron ok though as close to complete.

BK / acquisition is not out of the question here. unbelievable change of circumstances from just one month ago. Makes you wonder what Iger knew when he resigned out of the blue.

Yes, makes you wonder if he knew more. I hope they don't go BK or if they are required by someone else that my two grand in Disney gift cards will still be good, ugghh.

Now who is stoking this fire of speculation. Fear breeds fear and that is all this is.

 

[Deploraboo]

If there was a remote fear of bankruptcy at this point in time, would they be paying cast members? And wall street has not reacted THAT harshly, its P/e is still around 15ish.

We know the P but not the e.

eta: it’s not “speculation” to expect that effectively zero cash flow will cause extreme financial distress. And given relaxed SEC periodic filing requirements, it almost become gambling.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

We know the P but not the e.

P/e is always past looking. And considering the cruise lines were down in the 2 to 3 range a week ago, I would say with dis at 15. Wall street isn't worried

 

[Deploraboo]

As of 5:10 pm, Sun Mar 29.

 

[Louie7080]

Now hearing park Openings will be staggered, when they actually do open. Star Wars hotel and reflections on ice, and service likely to be limited for some time even when parks reopen, stands to reason. Seems Tron ok though as close to complete.

BK / acquisition is not out of the question here. unbelievable change of circumstances from just one month ago. Makes you wonder what Iger knew when he resigned out of the blue.

I missed this news and did a quick search about staggered openings just now and couldn't find info on it - can you provide the article or post? Thank you.

 

[Deploraboo]

Candidly came from reliable source on WDW Magic forum. You’re welcome.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Why would Poly be less desirable because it only has Studios or Bungalows ? You can use your points at any resort. One and two bedroom suites are usually easy to book at any resort at the 7 month window. If anything I would think Poly would be more desirable because it has more Studios which is what most Members are looking for. Plus poly has a very low Dues cost.

Poly is overrun. It is a beautiful resort but doesn’t have enough space to absorb all of the foot traffic or pool users. The housekeeping there also leaves a lot to be desired. This isn’t recent, these are systematic problems.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Dvc resale prices will definitely go down. How much is the question.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

As of 5:10 pm, Sun Mar 29.

Yes, that is the timestamp on the post. I do not know the future.

 

[Deploraboo]

I very much hope you’re right and I’m wrong.

 

[ELMC]

I have been tracking almost everything.

The good deal contracts have not been pending/selling as fast as they would have.

Prices haven't really dipped yet but it seems the demand is gone...for now.

Yep. This is how it starts. It's a slow process that typically needs to go through several steps. We saw it happen in reverse when the market climbed. Bidding wars broke out on contracts before the listing ever hit the market, and that pushed prices higher, etc. etc. Now you have triple loaded contracts that not only don't have a bidding war, but sit a few days before selling. That's going to force the next person to list at a lower price, which will likely not have a bidding war and might not even sell for full price. Prices will continue to fall as long as the pool of potential buyers shrinks and/or the number of contracts for sale increases.

I'm always in the market for a nicely loaded DVC contract and even I'm not buying right now. That should tell you something.

 

[skippytx]

Makes you wonder what Iger knew when he resigned out of the blue.

Iger's been trying to get out for years, I don't think he saw this coming. I think he got to a point where the Fox deal was wrapped up and saw an exit and took it.

DVC contracts have a lot of emotion tied to them, and they'll be one of the last luxuries to go for most people, especially with most folks dues already paid for the year. We might see a small depression in pricing in the near term, but things won't start really moving until those dues bills show up at the end of the year. Then people will have to ask themselves if they're in a position where it makes sense to keep their DVC or sell it.

 

[bookwormde]

Below is a 3/31 update for some additional DVC resale pricing metrics

Method used is approximation from the 2 large sites that provide reduced and pending

Format (3/20 all listed) 3/31 all listed reduced price contracts pending sales

AKV (114) 113 110 109

AUL (99) 100 97 96

BLT (150) 150 144 137

BCV (147) 148 138 140

BWV (126) 123 118 118

BRV (100) 99 100 98

CCV (155) 154 148 147

VGF (177) 176 168 164

HH (81) 81 74 75

OKW (102) 101 95 93

POLY (148) 147 143 146

SS (106) 106 102 101

VB (67) 67 62 71

 

[bookwormde]

4/1 new contract levels updated on post 1

3/30 new contract were 50% below average count

3/31 were slightly above average

 

[bookwormde]

4/1

Slightly above number of new contracts

Heavy weighting of June contracts though they appear to be from 1 seller and came on at 25% above the market

 

[E2ME2]

4/1

Slightly above number of new contracts

Heavy weighting of June contracts though they appear to be from 1 seller and came on at 25% above the market

bookwormde - where are you getting this data ?
ET