Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Lorana]

I know what a stripped contract is, I just thought that poster may have inferred that there is some advantage for the seller to have stripped the contract.

My thought was that the seller could have rented all the points out for money, or sold then for transfer. In this case, they would have made money on the points themselves, and then again on selling the stripped contract.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I know what a stripped contract is, I just thought that poster may have inferred that there is some advantage for the seller to have stripped the contract.

Okay, this is just a theory, but I've been buying/selling DVC for 25 years...I believe there are sellers out there who own multiple contracts (I mean LOTS of contracts) who have been stripping them. They are renting and/or transferring points for profit which is fine. I've purchased loaded contracts to rent and use and then flip, but this is an entirely different category of owner since the covid19 thing ramped up.

In theory, a stripped contract should be worth IMO about $5-6 less PP. For example, you can rent a point for $15 and after paying MF's net about $7 before paying income taxes. Current list prices don't seem to be random within a range of prices and almost all the contracts seem to be completely stripped - evenly down to zero. I don't see this as normal seller listings.

When buying a contract - say a 100 point contract at $100 PP with two years past, current and next year's points to me anyway, is worth so much more. I will rent 200 points at $15 and make 3K to offset purchase price - or $30 less net per point. I negotiate so I don't pay MF's on those two years. A stripped contract has no value to me. Long winded, but let me know if I totally missed the point!

 

[RoseGold]

You can't close while a trip is pending, including renting out points. So stripping is smart when you plan to sell.

Stripped contracts looking pretty good right now... Not like I'm trying to fight the point overload the next year anyway.

 

[Punkrockbebop]

Good input, thank you all. I would also think a stripped contract is pretty attractive right now, given the circumstances.

 

[njcoach24]

I just posted this in the ROFR thread. As a first time buyer (I just made a deal) I've become really interested in the price trends that the ROFR threads have been providing...this only took me an hour and these are my favorite two properties. One outlier is that there seems to be one person making a lot of deals on multiple resorts every quarter and getting the best prices so they must be hooked up with a broker or is a broker. Also, deals before closures look similar to deals today with some unicorns. And I think inventory is really low right now, it looks like people went buck wild in the first quarter buying things up so I think prices will stabilize and go back up.

Good Deals at ALK seem to be from $100-$105 per point. If you get in under $100 its a steal. PVB $130-135 seems to be a good deal and in the $120's is a steal. But most of those steal price per points are $20,000+ on the total contract cost.

Month & Year in 1st two columns are when the deal closed.

Here is ALK sorted by price per point from Oct 2019 through today.

Month	Year	Price Per Point	Number of Points	Total Cost	2018	2019	2020	2021	Passed ROFR
Dec	2019	$94.00	250	$26,297.00	0	250	250		Yes
Dec	2019	$94.00	200	$21,038.00	0	178	200		No
April	2020	$95.00	160	$17,138.00		160	160	160	Yes
May	2020	$95.00	100	$10,922.00		0	100	100	Yes
May	2020	$95.00	320	$31,913.00		0	216	123	Yes
Jan	2020	$97.00	485	$48,020.00		0	485	485	Yes
Dec	2019	$98.00	250	$27,700.00	0	2	250		No
April	2020	$99.00	270	$28,135.00		170	20	170	Yes
Dec	2019	$99.00	200	$21,810.00	18	0	400		No
April	2020	$100.00	180	$18,932.00		0	145	180	Yes
May	2020	$100.00	300	$30,806.00		0	50	300	Yes
Mar	2020	$100.00	160	$17,950.00		59	160	160	Yes
Jan	2020	$100.00	160	$16,575.00		0	0	160	No
Nov	2019	$100.00	160	$16,700.00	0	160	160		Yes
Jan	2020	$101.00	220	$24,537.00		0	220	220	Yes
Nov	2019	$101.00	240	$27,429.00	0	0	240		No
Mar	2020	$102.00	160	$18,189.00		51	160	160	Yes
Feb	2020	$102.00	165	$16,830.00		0	0	48	No
Mar	2020	$102.00	220	$23,756.00		220	220	220	No
Oct	2019	$102.00	315	$33,100.00	0	233	315		Yes
Nov	2019	$102.00	250	$28,200.00	0	0	250		Yes
Feb	2020	$103.00	500	$52,750.00		0	500	500	Yes
Feb	2020	$103.00	100	$11,400.00		0	100	100	Yes
Mar	2020	$103.00	180	$19,620.00		0	196	180	Yes
Mar	2020	$103.00	160	$17,025.00		0	0	160	Yes
Oct	2019	$103.00	220	$22,660.00	0	0	220		Yes
Jan	2020	$104.00	120	$13,958.00		0	120	120	Yes
Jan	2020	$104.00	150	$17,390.00		150	150	150	Yes
Dec	2019	$104.25	200	$23,034.00	0	120	200		Yes
April	2020	$105.00	160	$18,612.00		0	320	160	Yes
May	2020	$105.00	150	$17,450.00		2	238	150	Yes
Feb	2020	$105.00	150	$17,455.00		246	150	150	Yes
Feb	2020	$105.00	100	$11,762.00		0	100	100	Yes
Feb	2020	$105.00	220	$24,982.00		60	440	220	Yes
Mar	2020	$105.00	230	$24,988.00		230	230	230	Yes
Mar	2020	$105.00	200	$23,324.00		72	200	200	Yes
Feb	2020	$105.00	300	$32,500.00		426	270	300	No
Oct	2019	$105.00	250	$26,950.00	0	0	250		Yes
Nov	2019	$105.00	100	$11,150.00	0	108	100		Yes
Jan	2020	$106.00	160	$18,800.00		220	160	160	Yes
Mar	2020	$106.00	160	$17,602.00		0	0	160	Yes
Feb	2020	$107.00	160	$17,762.00		0	0	160	Yes
Jan	2020	$108.00	160	$19,077.00		160	160	160	Yes
Feb	2020	$108.00	160	$19,160.00		160	160	160	Yes
Feb	2020	$108.00	160	$19,149.00		144	160	160	Yes
Feb	2020	$108.00	160	$19,149.00		144	160	160	Yes
Feb	2020	$108.00	180	$21,499.00		0	298	180	Yes
Mar	2020	$108.00	50	$6,118.00		0	50	50	Yes
Mar	2020	$108.00	120	$14,320.00		0	217	120	Yes
Oct	2019	$108.00	200	$23,796.00	0	191	200		Yes
Oct	2019	$108.00	120	$13,465.00	0	0	120		Yes
Dec	2019	$108.00	225	$27,400.00	0	149	225		Yes
Jan	2020	$109.00	220	$23,980.00		0	220	220	Yes
Jan	2020	$109.00	100	$11,395.00		0	0	100	Yes
Jan	2020	$110.00	200	$22,000.00		0	400	200	Yes
Jan	2020	$110.00	200	$24,574.00		0	398	200	Yes
Feb	2020	$110.00	200	$22,000.00		0	400	200	Yes
Feb	2020	$110.00	100	$11,557.00		54	100	100	Yes
Mar	2020	$110.00	170	$19,353.00		6	0	170	Yes
Mar	2020	$110.00	160	$19,413.00		3	320	160	Yes
Mar	2020	$110.00	160	$19,382.00		160	320	160	Yes
Jan	2020	$112.00	245	$30,615.00		245	245	245	Yes
Feb	2020	$112.00	250	$30,437.00		0	216	250	Yes
Dec	2019	$112.00	120	$14,924.00	0	0	120		Yes
Dec	2019	$112.00	160	$19,812.00	0	95	160		Yes
Jan	2020	$115.00	100	$12,666.00		70	100	100	Yes
Nov	2019	$119.00	100	$12,395.00	0	58	200		Yes
Jan	2020	$120.00	120	$15,948.00		120	120	120	Yes
Mar	2020	$120.00	80	$10,753.00		0	80	80	Yes
Oct	2019	$120.00	160	$19,885.00	0	300	160		Yes
Feb	2020	$121.00	220	$27,310.00		440	220	220	Yes
Nov	2019	$122.00	125	$15,785.00	0	250	125		Yes
Jan	2020	$135.00	50	$7,648.00		50	50	50	Yes

Here is PVB sorted by price per point from Oct 2019 through today.

Month	Year	Price Per Point	Number of Points	Total Cost	2018	2019	2020	2021	Passed ROFR
May	2020	$120.00	220	$27,280.00		0	13	220	Yes
Feb	2020	$120.00	450	$55,200.00		0	8	450	Yes
April	2020	$123.00	100	$12,800.00		0	0	100	Yes
April	2020	$125.00	200	$26,358.00		0	201	200	Yes
Oct	2019	$125.00	225	$28,125.00	0	336	225		Yes
May	2020	$130.00	100	$14,279.00		0	122	100	Yes
Nov	2019	$130.00	206	$27,465.00	58	34	174		Yes
Nov	2019	$130.00	100	$13,540.00	0	100	100		Yes
Nov	2019	$130.00	200	$26,720.00	0	0	26		Yes
Mar	2020	$131.00	125	$17,224.00		0	125	125	Yes
Jan	2020	$132.00	150	$20,819.00		150	150	150	Yes
Oct	2019	$132.00	150	$20,574.00	0	0	284		Yes
Jan	2020	$133.00	175	$24,257.00		124	51	175	Yes
Jan	2020	$133.00	160	$23,058.00		185	160	160	Yes
May	2020	$135.00	100	$14,711.00		0	100	100	Yes
Feb	2020	$135.00	110	$15,385.00		0	0	110	Yes
Feb	2020	$135.00	110	$15,385.00		0	0	110	Yes
Mar	2020	$135.00	125	$18,088.00		0	97	125	Yes
Dec	2019	$135.00	200	$27,735.00	0	200	200		Yes
Nov	2019	$136.00	160	$23,450.00	106	0	320		Yes
Jan	2020	$137.00	200	$28,760.00		19	204	200	Yes
Jan	2020	$137.00	100	$14,225.00		6	0	100	Yes
Mar	2020	$138.00	110	$16,472.00		0	110	110	Yes
Mar	2020	$138.00	175	$26,042.00		16	165	175	Yes
Oct	2019	$138.00	75	$10,997.00	0	0	7		Yes
Mar	2020	$139.00	220	$32,912.00		0	440	220	Yes
Nov	2019	$139.00	150	$20,850.00	0	94	29		Yes
Feb	2020	$140.00	150	$22,634.00		143	150	150	Yes
Mar	2020	$140.00	175	$26,364.00		1	175	175	Yes
Feb	2020	$141.00	220	$32,985.00		229	220	220	Yes
Oct	2019	$142.00	175	$26,500.00	0	300	175		Yes
April	2020	$143.00	200	$30,848.00		0	400	200	Yes
Mar	2020	$143.00	150	$22,245.00		150	56	150	Yes
Mar	2020	$143.00	200	$28,600.00		200	200	200	Yes
Mar	2020	$143.00	275	$40,410.00		484	275	275	Yes
Jan	2020	$145.00	175	$27,239.00		222	107	175	Yes
Feb	2020	$145.00	50	$8,220.00		0	76	50	Yes
Mar	2020	$145.00	50	$8,164.00		0	58	50	Yes
Oct	2019	$145.00	200	$29,350.00	0	400	200		Yes
Oct	2019	$146.00	200	$30,664.00	0	0	220		Yes
Mar	2020	$147.00	200	$32,115.00		200	200	200	Yes
Mar	2020	$147.00	75	$11,865.00		0	75	75	Yes
Feb	2020	$149.00	125	$18,625.00		0	250	125	Yes
Mar	2020	$149.00	100	$16,209.00		0	121	100	Yes
Jan	2020	$150.00	200	$32,109.00		400	200	200	Yes
Dec	2019	$150.00	80	$12,480.00	0	0	1		Yes
Dec	2019	$150.00	120	$19,379.00	0	0	120		Yes
Dec	2019	$155.00	25	$4,460.00	0	0	25		Yes
April	2020	$165.00	30	$5,375.00		0	0	30	Yes

 

[Punkrockbebop]

Njcoach, is the month on those the useyear month, or the month these contracts closed?

 

[njcoach24]

Njcoach, is the month on those the useyear month, or the month these contracts closed?

the month the deal closed, I noted it above also. Good catch.

 

[RoseGold]

And I think inventory is really low right now, it looks like people went buck wild in the first quarter buying things up so I think prices will stabilize and go back up.

Direct sales is closed right now. The broker they traditionally send people to is Fidelity. I would expect to see a ton of Fidelity listings when direct sales opens again.

 

[MICKIMINI]

And I think inventory is really low right now, it looks like people went buck wild in the first quarter buying things up so I think prices will stabilize and go back up.

Thanks for putting that together! Those are two great resorts. Congrats on your first DVC!

I totally agree that there are one or more people (brokers?) out there with deep pockets buying and they are also out there selling those stripped contracts. It is pretty obvious that they are skewing the availability and prices.

The good thing is they can't buy everything. I have to disagree though that "prices will stabilize and go back up". DVC resale prices go up and down slowly rather than spike up and down as you can see from your charts We are in a historic downturn right now and with the exception of small contracts, prices should continue to slide. Eventually the small contracts will get more competitive and numerous. From experience, I suspect the slide will continue into next year and stabilize at some point. Many people will try to hold on to those small contracts in hopes this covid19 thing doesn't last forever, but will sell if it is a choice between their car to get to work or a few nights a year at DVC. I think it will be 3-4 years before DVC prices come back to the highs of early 2020 - JMHO and I could be totally wrong!

 

[njcoach24]

Direct sales is closed right now. The broker they traditionally send people to is Fidelity. I would expect to see a ton of Fidelity listings when direct sales opens again.

do you think they are holding listings to keep inventory low?

I totally agree that there are one or more people (brokers?) out there with deep pockets buying and they are also out there selling those stripped contracts. It is pretty obvious that they are skewing the availability and prices.

The good thing is they can't buy everything. I have to disagree though that "prices will stabilize and go back up". DVC resale prices go up and down slowly rather than spike up and down as you can see from your charts

Thank you! And I'm def not an expert by any means but when I was looking to make offers stripped contracts are available and for low prices but you have to wait 2+ years to even go so IMO its more of a wash. And to your point on pricing sliding obviously a lot will depend on COVID and treatments that may come out. If people remain out of work I could see prices sliding more...maybe 5 bucks...I think people are jumping now, look how many AKL were sold in quarter 1 or the number of people still buying at pre-COVID pricing now. If they can't figure out the COVID situation it could become totally worthless also but I think we are on the path to recovery right now unless no treatment comes out and a 2nd wave comes back.

 

[CastAStone]

do you think they are holding listings to keep inventory low?

No. Several of the brokers have sent out emails begging for listings and have temporarily cut commission rates to try and spur listings.

 

[Cadbury]

We are first time buyers and find it hard to decide to buy now our hold on a month or 2-3.
We are looking to buy a stripped contract @ SSR at about 150 points. We could buy it now at $91 pp
What is your advice? *I know you guys don't have a crystal ball *

 

[MICKIMINI]

We are first time buyers and find it hard to decide to buy now our hold on a month or 2-3.
We are looking to buy a stripped contract @ SSR at about 150 points. We could buy it now at $91 pp
What is your advice?

Unless you plan to try to go later this year, WAIT! If you wait until late fall when MF's are looming large, you can probably get either a cheaper price or more points or likely both. I'd also consider getting current year points so you can push a year forward by banking. It's harder to borrow right now with the rules change to 50%, so it is an easy way to "pad" your points and when the current buyers thin out and more contracts hit the market, it will be cheap points.

The last big contract I bought was 250 points and I got two years back (500) and rented them. I paid 0 for one years MF's and 50% for the other. I used most of the other 500 points for ourselves and rented out a few excess and still have plenty 2020 and 2021. Time is on your side. Where would you stay with an extra 300-450 points??

 

[glamdring269]

Unless you plan to try to go later this year, WAIT! If you wait until late fall when MF's are looming large, you can probably get either a cheaper price or more points or likely both. I'd also consider getting current year points so you can push a year forward by banking. It's harder to borrow right now with the rules change to 50%, so it is an easy way to "pad" your points and when the current buyers thin out and more contracts hit the market, it will be cheap points.

Even if you're going later in the year you could probably rent points now and potentially still come out well ahead by waiting.

 

[EM Lawrence]

Even if a cure for Covid was found tomorrow, you don't shut down the economy for 2 months and then just pick back up right where you left off with no consequences. Layoffs are already happening, and there will be more. Lots of small businesses will not reopen, ever. Large retailers have already begun to file bankruptcy. There is economic turmoil ahead and it will take a while to be absorbed and recovered from. I'm optimistic for long term economic recovery, but I think there will be a lot of belt tightening over the next 2-3 years. I hope I'm wrong! From the beginning of this, people who rode out the last recession said it would take 6 months to 2 years for DVC resale prices to go down significantly. I think the price reductions we've seen so far are just the beginning. Six months from March will be September, which is also when those MF will start to loom large for people who pay annually. If you can wait, wait until at least then. Prices are certainly not going to go up anytime soon.

 

[DougEMG]

Can you explain to me what is the advantage to these sellers to strip contracts? I’m just trying to understand.

The resale market has always over valued stripped contracts and undervalued loaded contracts. So any smart/experienced seller will strip a contract and rent out the points before selling.

 

[Cadbury]

Thanks for your input. We aren't in a rush as we are planning to go 2022

 

[E2ME2]

https://www.bbb.org/us/fl/tampa/pro...ental-marketing/buyatimesharecom-0653-6160390

Those reviews tell me all I need to know.

 

[ElizabethS22]

They show an AKV sold for $78/point! They ones they have available have ridiculously high asking prices though...like $16,000 for a 110pt AKV contract. Ummmm...nope!

This is very tempting My husband will kill me. I am still waiting on ROFR for my VGF contract

 

[zavandor]

Looking for a BWV contract and just found a site that I had never heard of before. It listed 2 sold contracts for BWV, one for $80 and another at $86. I wonder if those would pass ROFR.

If it's too good to be true...