What's the Next DVC Property?

[BamaGuy44]

We know DLT is the next one, but for WDW, I expect another flip of rooms at another resort...I think AKV Jambo could add more rooms, and maybe make some of them CL!!!

NOW you’re talkin’!

 

[Marionnette]

They could, but it would be messy and confusing.

So ...

Yacht Club #1 - High demand, full flip, 1, 2 and deluxe studios, 50 year deed, food (Yachtman's Steakhouse, Ale & Compass, Cape May Cafe, Beaches & Cream, Crew's Cup, etc.) and transportation (Walk to Epcot & Studios, Bus, Skyliner, Boat) options are adequate; only negative the resort is used primarily for convention travelers, $$$$

Yacht Club #2 - High demand, easy flip—only resort studios, 50 year deed, food (Yachtman's Steakhouse, Ale & Compass, Cape May Cafe, Beaches & Cream, Crew's Cup, etc.) and transportation (Walk to Epcot & Studios, Bus, Skyliner, Boat) options are adequate; only negative the resort is used primarily for convention travelers, $$

Poly #1 - High demand, easy flip, could use same association, offer both deluxe and resort studios, 2066 expiration; food (Capt Cook's, O'Hana, Kona, Pineapple Lanai, Tambu Lounge, Trader Sam's, Oasis Bar, Kona Island) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to TTC, Boat) options are adequate; only negative is there's already a lot of DVC studios available at this location, $$

Poly #2 - High demand, new construction, recycle original DVC tower design, could use same association, reclaim prime real estate from Luau area, offer 1 and 2 bedroom lock-offs, 2066 expiration; food (Capt Cook's, O'Hana, Kona, Pineapple Lanai, Tambu Lounge, Trader Sam's, Oasis Bar, Kona Island) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to TTC, Boat) options are adequate; $$$$

Wilderness Lodge - Easy flip, could use the same association, offer both deluxe and resort studios, 2068 expiration, food (Whispering Canyon, Artist Point, Geyser Point, Roaring Fork, Territory Lounge, etc.) and transportation (Boat, Bus) options are adequate, $$

Contemporary #1- New construction, recycle original Bay Lake Tower 2 design, offer all room types, 50 year deed, food (Steakhouse 71, Outer Rim, California Grill, Chef Mickey's, Contempo Cafe, etc.) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to MK, Boat) options are adequate, $$$$

Contemporary #2 - Garden Wing flip, resort studios, could use the same association, 2060 expiration, food (Steakhouse 71, Outer Rim, California Grill, Chef Mickey's, Contempo Cafe, etc.) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to MK, Boat) options are adequate; not as marketable, $

I'm in for Yacht. Would prefer 1 and 2 bedroom options, but I'd take a cheap, resort studios flip just for location, food and pool. I'd consider BLT2 direct, but not a flipped Garden Wing. I already own Poly and I'd just buy CC on the resale market if I wanted WL.

Poly #2A: Reclaim prime real estate land from Luau location. Build a new, multi-level hotel with rooftop restaurant, club-level rooms and mini-suites and amazing pool plus regular hotel rooms. Sell existing longhouses to DVC for quick resort studio flip.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I see the opening price point on VGF2 as a declaration of war against resale. That combined with the special incentives they have been featuring on sold out resorts the past few months tells me that their strategy for the foreseeable future is to focus on selling what they have and taking more market share from resale. They seem to specifically be interested in taking the sale of large contracts away from the resale market, and perhaps are content to let resale keep flipping smaller point contracts. The direct incentives get particularly good as you buy more points. They've also increased the points needed for the blue card to 150 rather quickly over the past two years, again going for the bigger spenders.

They converted new rooms at VGF because they had trouble selling those rooms for cash rates. It's a win for them to make a quick buck and also shift the cost of maintaining the property to DVC owners. I don't necessarily think it will be something they focus on long term, unless they continue to have trouble selling rooms for cash.

My speculative vote for a new DVC property is either a Poly tower (yes, please!) or a new BLT2. Yacht Club will only be on the table in conventions die off over the next decade as a result of all the changes we have gone through with Covid. Time will tell on that one.

Do you think a Poly tower would be same or new association? What about a BLT2?

 

[DVCSunDevil]

I would think somehow adding onto BC would be very enticing. It is the smallest WDW DVC resort (points wise) and is pretty popular. Maybe that means converting some YC and calling it Beach and Yacht Club DVC. Selfishly, I do not want them to add on to BC because I like staying at the smaller resort. But I could see how it would be attractive to Disney to get more DVC rooms over there.

When I first thought about this, my initial reaction was to get a resort over by the Coronado Springs area. But that location isn’t too attractive.

 

[EM Lawrence]

Do you think a Poly tower would be same or new association? What about a BLT2?

Your guess is as good as mine! I own resale Poly so I would be thrilled for some new Poly points with 1BR+ options to be added to the pool.

I do think that opening sales at VGF which has no resale restrictions is a bit insulting to people who purchase Riviera, which does have the resale restrictions. If they do any more flips into current associations, it would be really rude for them to keep the resale restrictions on Riviera and have it be the only resort affected. Those restrictions only work if all future DVC resorts carry the same restrictions.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I vote to ditch the resale restrictions! I would buy today!

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I think we already know the answer.

The luau is dead. Why? It was a nice moneymaker.

Over on the WDWMagic rumors boards there’s been constant posts like this for 2 years now:https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...-final-nail-in-the-coffin.974748/#post-997955

Oh and Disney just rebuilt and expanded the Polynesian monorail platform. Why?

Anyway I would bet real money that it will be Polynesian, and not a conversion, but a new build, approximately where the Luau was.

 

[J-Dog]

Supposedly, Reflections is dead. But they obviously had done the environmental surveys, soil analyses, etc, in order to build there, since they were at the point of moving dirt. Therefore, I don't see the point of doing a complete tear-down of anything just to build back up, when they can simply re-start Reflections, since it wouldn't require any demolition and would otherwise be equal.

Now, a conversion or refurb would be another story....And I agree the most likely....

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Supposedly, Reflections is dead. But they obviously had done the environmental surveys, soil analyses, etc, in order to build there, since they were at the point of moving dirt. Therefore, I don't see the point of doing a complete tear-down of anything just to build back up, when they can simply re-start Reflections, since it wouldn't require any demolition and would otherwise be equal.

Now, a conversion or refurb would be another story....And I agree the most likely....

Reflections is dead. That’s not a viewpoint or an opinion, it’s a fact that I know with 100% certainty.

 

[Royal Consort]

I don't know whether it will be the next DVC but I find it curious Disney would spend a lot of money re-routing Floridian Way (which is a straight road) to expand the land parcel next to Magic Kingdom. I tentatively wonder whether GF will always be the flagship or whether a luxury property will be built on this land in some years to come. If so, it will have a DVC component.

 

[J-Dog]

Reflections is dead. That’s not a viewpoint or an opinion, it’s a fact that I know with 100% certainty.

How do you know? Are you an insider? Because last I had heard ( and maybe I'm not fully updated) but Disney had not released a statement either way as to the fate of Reflections.

And even if "Reflections" is dead, that doesn't necessarily mean that Disney has vowed to NEVER use that piece of property that they have obviously spent a decent amount of money on already...

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I

How do you know? Are you an insider? Because last I had heard ( and maybe I'm not fully updated) but Disney had not released a statement either way as to the fate of Reflections.

And even if "Reflections" is dead, that doesn't necessarily mean that Disney has vowed to NEVER use that piece of property that they have obviously spent a decent amount of money on already...

I wouldn’t call myself an insider at all but in this one specific instance, yes, I do know something specific from someone at TWDC.

I agree with your second point, the property is now shovel ready for whatever they dream up next.

 

[sethschroeder]

Everyone seems to be missing that Yacht Club was recently refurbished and then even shuttered for a period.

Disney isnt going to flip rooms until a actual refresh is needed.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Everyone seems to be missing that Yacht Club was recently refurbished and then even shuttered for a period.

Disney isnt going to flip rooms until a actual refresh is needed.

Which would point to Jambo, but people think the Jambo point chart is too member-friendly.

 

[Sandisw]

How do you know? Are you an insider? Because last I had heard ( and maybe I'm not fully updated) but Disney had not released a statement either way as to the fate of Reflections.

And even if "Reflections" is dead, that doesn't necessarily mean that Disney has vowed to NEVER use that piece of property that they have obviously spent a decent amount of money on already...

I will add that they included it in the contract for VGF to not buy relying on Reflections or DLT happening.

So, while I think it’s is not on the agenda now, I agree that it doesn’t mean they can revisit again down the line.

 

[sethschroeder]

Which would point to Jambo, but people think the Jambo point chart is too member-friendly.

Not really if they add on to club level which is always in high demand.

Make all standard views club level key access and leave all savanna views out of club level.

Club level doesn't need to be a floor but simply a key that opens the club lounge.

Also long term Disney doesn't have to pay for Club Level it would be done through MFs on AKV owners anyways.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Not really if they add on to club level which is always in high demand.

Make all standard views club level key access and leave all savanna views out of club level.

Club level doesn't need to be a floor but simply a key that opens the club lounge.

If they were intent on solving that particular issue, they already could. Raise the points cost of Value and Club, and cut the points cost of Savanna until demand balances out.

I think they view Club as a failed experiment.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think people are forgetting that there is still a convention center at the Contemporary. As long as that still exists, Disney will not be tearing down or converting the garden wing of the Contemporary because they need those rooms to handle the convention center guests.

This changes if Disney decides that the convention centers in the Boardwalk area (Yacht Club, Swan, Dolphin) have enough room capacity and exhibit space. If they decide they no longer need the Contemporary exhibit space, then they get to re-develop the whole convention area of the Contemporary, including the convention center itself, the 4th floor of the Contemporary (currently two huge ballrooms and several meeting rooms), and the Garden Wing rooms. I could see Disney tearing down the convention center and putting up a low rise "mini Contemporary" as cash rooms (or tear down and rebuild nothing), "re-imagining" the 4th floor into outside cash rooms and smaller inside ballrooms, and putting up the long awaited BLT2 tower over the area where the current Garden wing sits. But, make no mistake, this design is not something they're going to throw up overnight. It's probably a 5+ year project once they start, and it makes NO sense to do it unless there is strong DVC interest AND they've convinced themselves that the Boardwalk area convention facilities are sufficient.

I do think the amount of money they used to upgrade CSR and Boardwalk pre-COVID while ignoring Contemporary is a bit of a tell. The convention center at Contemporary has pretty outdates AV and worn carpet.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

If they were intent on solving that particular issue, they already could. Raise the points cost of Value and Club, and cut the points cost of Savanna until demand balances out.

I think they view Club as a failed experiment.

I don't even think it was an experiment. It was a means to an end when doing AKV and they kinda had to take those units.

They have had abundant chance to add more CL elsewhere and have declined. BLT could have had a CL floor easily. VGF1 was a new build, as was RIV, so they could have built in club easily.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

Oh and Disney just rebuilt and expanded the Polynesian monorail platform. Why?
.

Probably because it was disintegrating in plain sight for anyone who cared to notice.. and I also don't think the platform was expanded. Just beefed up a bit.

But, it's pretty much common knowledge at this point that plans were drawn up for a Poly tower on at least one occasion. They keep circling around on the idea, and I also wouldn't be surprised if the time is finally right to strike.