What's the Next DVC Property?

[CaptainAmerica]

Do we know FOR SURE why Reflections was scrapped? I think we all assume it was a COVID cash flow issue, but if that were the case, wouldn't they just start it back up once COVID is good and truly behind us?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Unless they have a block of rooms they are struggling to sell consistently for cash, I see them building new.

I think you can make the case that Port Orleans Riverside is too big, and that Caribbean Beach still might be, even post-Riviera.

 

[BrianLo]

I think you can make the case that Port Orleans Riverside is too big, and that Caribbean Beach still might be, even post-Riviera.

I do think they'd want a brief reprieve from Carribean Beach area, just to give that wave of initial interest a chance. Presuming RIV sells out after VGF2, which seems likely.

Port Orleans feels possible... but they'd really have to look at a flashy transport option for Epcot or go really cheap with the points charts.

Reflections plot still feels likely to me.

 

[BrianLo]

Do we know FOR SURE why Reflections was scrapped? I think we all assume it was a COVID cash flow issue, but if that were the case, wouldn't they just start it back up once COVID is good and truly behind us?

I assume because they could not predict the timeline it was needed. As well as a lack of confidence DVC would recover. VGF2 is like a half-committal. A year from now if sales are gangbusters a big new build seems more of a sure thing to be approved.

 

[PalmettoPath]

A second BLT has been a long-running rumor (to fully replace the other garden wing just as the original BLT replaced the other wing). Could also be the other rumored new resort they've been mulling and doing site checks on next to the ferry dock at TTC (on the grounds formerly deemed unstable enough to build). And Reflections could be reborn at any time, which would be plausible. Or maybe some Grand bungalows perhaps...

 

[RoseGold]

Do we know FOR SURE why Reflections was scrapped? I think we all assume it was a COVID cash flow issue, but if that were the case, wouldn't they just start it back up once COVID is good and truly behind us?

They canceled the permits and sodded over the work that had been done. There is no movement on the project formerly known as reflections.

Reflections is dead. At least for now.

 

[ProudMommyof2]

I would love to see a small tower at Poly with 1 and 2 bedrooms

 

[The Jackal]

If you are going to tear down a building, just to build another in it's spot, why wouldn't you just build new at the Reflections site? Coversions need to utilize existing bones to make it worth while.

Reflections was a split resort. One part DVC and one part cash hotel. I’m not sure if they predict strong cash resort demand. We all know DVC demand is there.
I predict at some point, more Grand Floridian buildings get converted and WDW builds a true 5 Star hotel right next to the MK between the GF and MK. It will have monorail access and the shortest walk to MK. I can also see the rest of Wilderness Lodge going DVC.

 

[fixerupper]

Whatever it is, I hope it has 1+br options and isn't the downgraded "resort" implementation. And no resale restrictions.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Whatever it is, I hope it has 1+br options and isn't the downgraded "resort" implementation. And no resale restrictions.

I want as much accomodations variety as they can come up with. Resort Studios, King Studios, treehouses, cabins, hobbit holes, tower studios, all of it. I don't consider the Resort Studios at VGF a downgrade whatsoever. They're just different.

 

[CLE2WDW]

I firmly believe there will be a Yacht Club DVC one day. I can envision Disney removing the one wing of rooms closest to the Swan and building an 8-10 story tower of DVC rooms.

 

[RoseGold]

I can’t see a flip at Jambo happening. Yes, it has a bunch of undesirable rooms with no animals. But that chart is so retro. They would have to make a new category to hike the points, like Simba suites or something.

It would be weird to have a situation where AKL has some studios priced closer to 1BR pricing, just because they were flipped later. I guess they could try to justify this with some special things, like a king size bed or a simba robe.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I see the opening price point on VGF2 as a declaration of war against resale. That combined with the special incentives they have been featuring on sold out resorts the past few months tells me that their strategy for the foreseeable future is to focus on selling what they have and taking more market share from resale. They seem to specifically be interested in taking the sale of large contracts away from the resale market, and perhaps are content to let resale keep flipping smaller point contracts. The direct incentives get particularly good as you buy more points. They've also increased the points needed for the blue card to 150 rather quickly over the past two years, again going for the bigger spenders.

They converted new rooms at VGF because they had trouble selling those rooms for cash rates. It's a win for them to make a quick buck and also shift the cost of maintaining the property to DVC owners. I don't necessarily think it will be something they focus on long term, unless they continue to have trouble selling rooms for cash.

My speculative vote for a new DVC property is either a Poly tower (yes, please!) or a new BLT2. Yacht Club will only be on the table in conventions die off over the next decade as a result of all the changes we have gone through with Covid. Time will tell on that one.

 

[mort1331]

Discovery island with an underground express tube and/or water taxi to get on and off. Could even keep some of the old water features to be a second BC,,,but of course with clean water this time.

 

[UofMGuy423]

If a lot of prep work is already done for Reflections (environmental, design, etc), it would make the most sense to just pick that one back up.

 

[nuhusky123]

If a lot of prep work is already done for Reflections (environmental, design, etc), it would make the most sense to just pick that one back up.

I don’t see new construction anytime soon

 

[Marionnette]

If a lot of prep work is already done for Reflections (environmental, design, etc), it would make the most sense to just pick that one back up.

Agreed! But only if they decide to build from the ground up. I'm in the camp that thinks that another quick flip may be in the works. Unfortunately, I think we will see more of these cheap conversions of hotel rooms to resort studios. The VGF2 conversion was low hanging fruit that was too attractive not to pick.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Agreed! But only if they decide to build from the ground up. I'm in the camp that thinks that another quick flip may be in the works. Unfortunately, I think we will see more of these cheap conversions of hotel rooms to resort studios. The VGF2 conversion was low hanging fruit that was too attractive not to pick.

You say "unfortunately," but I bet you 50 SSR sleep-around points that the VGF Resort Studios will be much more popular than the Deluxe Studios, and not just for the initial wave of curiosity.

 

[Sandisw]

Do we know FOR SURE why Reflections was scrapped? I think we all assume it was a COVID cash flow issue, but if that were the case, wouldn't they just start it back up once COVID is good and truly behind us?

For sure? No. But, it was a joint venture for DVC and cash and I think they knew that it would be years for the the industry to come back to need more rooms, especially for the cash side.

IMO, it may have been more to do with that than the DVC rooms it would add.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

YC is almost always left out of public discounts (pre-COVID) because between guarantee blocks for conventions and then other users, they've never had issues filling it.

Disney need to be able to offer 1000+ guarantee rooms for the most choice conventions. The preference by organizers is for most of them to be at BWI, BC and YC. Disney sometimes work with Swolphin for some of those rooms in the block. Jumbo events, like Gartner, also use CSR, part of GF, part of CR.

Losing the guarantee block in YC would hurt them compared to OCC.