What would you do buying direct?

[Royal Consort]

Except to ever backtrack on the DVC resort agreement that is part of the POS…which is what gives owners trading rights through BVTC…requires a vote from owners.

Or, BVTC has to be completely dissolved, all resorts become single resorts, a new trading entity opened, and the resorts all join again.

That would impact direct points as well during that transition and cost a whole lot of money so it won’t happen because even then, it could be challenged as simply being done to work around owners votes to amend.

So, I think if restrictions on where to use points is a goal, they will just apply to new because in 19 years, 3 resorts will be that way anyway!

I was making a joke about the misspelling of home resort as 'home escort'. If resale locked you into THAT it would be an interesting restriction/benefit.

Off I toddle.

 

[Sandisw]

I was making a joke about the misspelling of home resort as 'home escort'. If resale locked you into THAT it would be an interesting restriction/benefit.

Off I toddle.

Hahahaha!

 

[pianomanzano]

There are a lot of people who may consider this a significant resale benefit.

Reckon DVCresalemarket should throw this in?! Bet Aulani would fly off the shelf.

I don’t think all the SSR owners that use it strictly as SAP won’t think that way!

 

[Jenglish13]

Except to ever backtrack on the DVC resort agreement that is part of the POS…which is what gives owners trading rights through BVTC…requires a vote from owners.

Or, BVTC has to be completely dissolved, all resorts become single resorts, a new trading entity opened, and the resorts all join again.

That would impact direct points as well during that transition and cost a whole lot of money so it won’t happen because even then, it could be challenged as simply being done to work around owners votes to amend.

So, I think if restrictions on where to use points is a goal, they will just apply to new because in 19 years, 3 resorts will be that way anyway!

What is the likely outcome for the 2042 resorts? Will they create brand new contracts and become like Riv is now with resale points from other home resorts ineligible? Could Disney remove them from DVC entirely and convert them to regular cash resorts? What are the possibilities and what do you think is most likely?

 

[Sandisw]

What is the likely outcome for the 2042 resorts? Will they create brand new contracts and become like Riv is now with resale points from other home resorts ineligible? Could Disney remove them from DVC entirely and convert them to regular cash resorts? What are the possibilities and what do you think is most likely?

Everything you mentioned is possible. Unless they abandon the resale restrictions strategy, which I don’t think they will, those who bought resale since 2019 won’t have them as a trading option.

They would enter BVTC with rules like RIV but also much higher point charts.

I think VB and HH get sold off, some of the cash rooms at BWI and BC get added to DVC, and all become new options.

BRV is the only one I can see being done differently and maybe being rolled into CCV due to the short span of expiration?

All just guesses but if BWV and BCV are locations people enjoy, I would go in assuming in 20 years those most likely won’t be eligible.

And, the fewer resorts there are to trade between, the harder trading becomes.

 

[Brian Noble]

What is the likely outcome for the 2042 resorts? Will they create brand new contracts and become like Riv is now with resale points from other home resorts ineligible? Could Disney remove them from DVC entirely and convert them to regular cash resorts? What are the possibilities and what do you think is most likely?

Anything is possible for the 2042 resorts when the time comes. Anything. As to what is likely? I don't know; I rely on this source instead.

In the big picture, I'm a "strict constructionist" when it comes to buying timeshares. I assume that I will never be promised anything new, and that anything that is not guaranteed will be taken away. So, I don't care about perks. I assume that new resorts will be not accessible and expiring resorts will not continue. If, after all of that, the purchase still makes sense then I am happy to buy.

This seems like a very pessimistic attitude, and it probably is. But, it also positions me to weather whatever the developer throws at me without disappointment. For example, other developers have created club-within-the-club products that require new purchases to be a part of. Disney has never done this. Will they ever? Your guess is as good as mine, but they could. There is nothing that prevents them from doing it, and if the Mouse thinks it makes business sense, he'll do it faster than you can say "cheese." If that ever does happen, there will be rooms and maybe even resorts that someone who buys from the developer right now, today, will not have access to. We all have opinions about whether or not it would happen, but unless some of us are closet DVC executives, we don't know. And, even if those folks today say "we would never do that," never is a long time.

But, even if they did, so what? If you are happy with the resort portfolio as it stands today, and would be happy with it even if resorts retire on expiration, then buy with the full confidence that you'll enjoy your purchase. From there, you can only be pleasantly surprised. Buying RIV resale? If you really like RIV and can imagine being happy with it, go for it! You'll be as happy as you decide to be. Of course, the Mouse (and capitalism generally) will tell you that you can't be happy with what you have, that you need a little more to be happy. You can remind yourself that the Mouse just wants your money, and you like things just as they are. If you can do that, you'll be happy.

The same is true of the O14 resale buyer, or even the developer purchaser who encounters the hypothetical "new club" that they aren't (yet) a part of. The trick to remember is that you were happy with your purchase decision when you made it, with exactly the resorts that were offered. The only person who can change that attitude is you.

Where it gets a little trickier is the volatile perks. That requires some cold-eyed assessment, recognizing that any of them could go away tomorrow, and thinking about whether that would matter to you. Will you be happy if they disappeared tomorrow? If so, great! That way, if it happens, you can mourn their passing, but you can remind yourself that the base product still justifies the purchase. If you instead decide that the perk (AP discounts, valet parking, TotW access, etc.) is necessary for you to be happy about the purchase, don't buy.

I'll admit, this isn't easy to do. The Guides are there to help you dream about what might be possible, and how Membership will meet your every current and future whim. That's their job. And most of us want to do that because we want this purchase to work, to make us happy. It won't make us happy. It will only let us book some timeshare rooms, on a space available basis. The happiness part is up to us.

 

[Jenglish13]

Anything is possible for the 2042 resorts when the time comes. Anything. As to what is likely? I don't know; I rely on this source instead.

In the big picture, I'm a "strict constructionist" when it comes to buying timeshares. I assume that I will never be promised anything new, and that anything that is not guaranteed will be taken away. So, I don't care about perks. I assume that new resorts will be not accessible and expiring resorts will not continue. If, after all of that, the purchase still makes sense then I am happy to buy.

This seems like a very pessimistic attitude, and it probably is. But, it also positions me to weather whatever the developer throws at me without disappointment. For example, other developers have created club-within-the-club products that require new purchases to be a part of. Disney has never done this. Will they ever? Your guess is as good as mine, but they could. There is nothing that prevents them from doing it, and if the Mouse thinks it makes business sense, he'll do it faster than you can say "cheese." If that ever does happen, there will be rooms and maybe even resorts that someone who buys from the developer right now, today, will not have access to. We all have opinions about whether or not it would happen, but unless some of us are closet DVC executives, we don't know. And, even if those folks today say "we would never do that," never is a long time.

But, even if they did, so what? If you are happy with the resort portfolio as it stands today, and would be happy with it even if resorts retire on expiration, then buy with the full confidence that you'll enjoy your purchase. From there, you can only be pleasantly surprised. Buying RIV resale? If you really like RIV and can imagine being happy with it, go for it! You'll be as happy as you decide to be. Of course, the Mouse (and capitalism generally) will tell you that you can't be happy with what you have, that you need a little more to be happy. You can remind yourself that the Mouse just wants your money, and you like things just as they are. If you can do that, you'll be happy.

The same is true of the O14 resale buyer, or even the developer purchaser who encounters the hypothetical "new club" that they aren't (yet) a part of. The trick to remember is that you were happy with your purchase decision when you made it, with exactly the resorts that were offered. The only person who can change that attitude is you.

Where it gets a little trickier is the volatile perks. That requires some cold-eyed assessment, recognizing that any of them could go away tomorrow, and thinking about whether that would matter to you. Will you be happy if they disappeared tomorrow? If so, great! That way, if it happens, you can mourn their passing, but you can remind yourself that the base product still justifies the purchase. If you instead decide that the perk (AP discounts, valet parking, TotW access, etc.) is necessary for you to be happy about the purchase, don't buy.

I'll admit, this isn't easy to do. The Guides are there to help you dream about what might be possible, and how Membership will meet your every current and future whim. That's their job. And most of us want to do that because we want this purchase to work, to make us happy. It won't make us happy. It will only let us book some timeshare rooms, on a space available basis. The happiness part is up to us.

Fantastic advice, not just for DVC and timeshares but life in general! I try to ascribe to the lower/more realistic expectation guide to avoid disappointment and maybe just maybe be pleasantly surprised once in awhile!

 

[Jenglish13]

Everything you mentioned is possible. Unless they abandon the resale restrictions strategy, which I don’t think they will, those who bought resale since 2019 won’t have them as a trading option.

They would enter BVTC with rules like RIV but also much higher point charts.

I think VB and HH get sold off, some of the cash rooms at BWI and BC get added to DVC, and all become new options.

BRV is the only one I can see being done differently and maybe being rolled into CCV due to the short span of expiration?

All just guesses but if BWV and BCV are locations people enjoy, I would go in assuming in 20 years those most likely won’t be eligible.

And, the fewer resorts there are to trade between, the harder trading becomes.

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. Maybe 7 month availability starts to improve as more resale buyers get locked out of new & expiring resorts. Less competition for those rooms? I have no clue on the breakdown between direct points and grandfathered resale vs restricted resale. I also wonder about the impact these restrictions will have on resale prices and if and when that becomes an issue for direct buyers. 50 years locked into paying dues is a long time.

I've noticed that many people don't seem to emphasize the flexibility renting offers too in both renting otherwise restricted resorts or renting your own points. The unrestricted nature of direct points loses some of its selling power to me when I can use the commercial sites to swap out my points for a cost of about $5 per point. And if I'm willing to use these boards to do it I can likely do it much cheaper, or possibly at no cost.

 

[Brian Noble]

Maybe ... I also wonder ... possibly

See, there you go hoping for more than promised. Danger, Will Robinson! Danger!

 

[Jenglish13]

See, there you go hoping for more than promised. Danger, Will Robinson! Danger!

Haha! Those were more speculative than hopeful though!

I'm just trying to tamp down expectations about the escorts! Which resorts come with them? Are those only for blue cards?

 

[Sandisw]

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. Maybe 7 month availability starts to improve as more resale buyers get locked out of new & expiring resorts. Less competition for those rooms? I have no clue on the breakdown between direct points and grandfathered resale vs restricted resale. I also wonder about the impact these restrictions will have on resale prices and if and when that becomes an issue for direct buyers. 50 years locked into paying dues is a long time.

I've noticed that many people don't seem to emphasize the flexibility renting offers too in both renting otherwise restricted resorts or renting your own points. The unrestricted nature of direct points loses some of its selling power to me when I can use the commercial sites to swap out my points for a cost of about $5 per point. And if I'm willing to use these boards to do it I can likely do it much cheaper, or possibly at no cost.

I have read over the years that no more than 10 to 15% of the resort owners are not original owners. And it takes a while to get there.

While there are a lot more contracts than that that change hands each year, a contract only because resale once. So, if 100 BLT contracts are sold this year, and all of those owners bought it resale, it does nothing to the resale/direct ratio.

As someone who doesn’t think people should use resale value as a deciding factor, I think resale value has the potential to go down, but as long as the parks exist, so will buyers.

Availability will be interesting but I think it will get harder to trade into near park resorts since anyone buying the 2042 given the 19 years may be buying to stay there and when there is a short time left? May not trade out at all.

Renting is always an option but you have no control of the reservation and for me, it was and is a hard no as an option. But if it works for people, then sure, it’s a way to stay at restricted resorts.

The entire purpose of the move by DVD for restrictions is to make direct a better product than resale …and with the exception of resale value, direct points offer an owner everything it always has..trading everywhere and access to perks for whatever exists.

It’s easy now to see it as no big deal as it’s RIV. But, in 20 years? Will it still be no big deal if you are locked out of not only RIV but VDH, Poly tower, BWV and BCV and any other potential new locations? I think it will be for many because of those two become restricted then resale buyers will be totally shut out of access to the Epcot area.

 

[Jenglish13]

I have read over the years that no more than 10 to 15% of the resort owners are not original owners. And it takes a while to get there.

While there are a lot more contracts than that that change hands each year, a contract only because resale once. So, if 100 BLT contracts are sold this year, and all of those owners bought it resale, it does nothing to the resale/direct ratio.

As someone who doesn’t think people should use resale value as a deciding factor, I think resale value has the potential to go down, but as long as the parks exist, so will buyers.

Availability will be interesting but I think it will get harder to trade into near park resorts since anyone buying the 2042 given the 19 years may be buying to stay there and when there is a short time left? May not trade out at all.

Renting is always an option but you have no control of the reservation and for me, it was and is a hard no as an option. But if it works for people, then sure, it’s a way to stay at restricted resorts.

The entire purpose of the move by DVD for restrictions is to make direct a better product than resale …and with the exception of resale value, direct points offer an owner everything it always has..trading everywhere and access to perks for whatever exists.

It’s easy now to see it as no big deal as it’s RIV. But, in 20 years? Will it still be no big deal if you are locked out of not only RIV but VDH, Poly tower, BWV and BCV and any other potential new locations? I think it will be for many because of those two become restricted then resale buyers will be totally shut out of access to the Epcot area.

Ah, that surprised me given what seems to be such high resale volume. But as you say, who knows how many resale contracts were previously resold already?
I think the loss of walking distance to Epcot & boat or skyline to HS will be a very big deal and the significance will increase each passing year. Then I think much of the value and decision making process would hinge on one's comfort with the rental system. Or you could simply buy a new resale at BCV or BWV in 2043. I could see that making sense for many, having some resale points at BLT or VGF to walk to MK and some at BCV or BWV to walk to Epcot and skyliner. I've still not made my first trip and I'm already thinking a split stay between my home resort at BLT and BCV would make a lot of sense. My current 7 month availability at BCV seems to offer little value already though based on availability calculator. Was trying (unsuccessfully) to talk my wife into an extra teeny 50 pointer at BCV to do 3 nights in a studio each visit. This would likely cost between $9-10k with closing costs and I realized I can rent or transfer the points for about $1k per trip without any long term obligations and dues. I find the endless customization fascinating!

 

[Sandisw]

Ah, that surprised me given what seems to be such high resale volume. But as you say, who knows how many resale contracts were previously resold already?
I think the loss of walking distance to Epcot & boat or skyline to HS will be a very big deal and the significance will increase each passing year. Then I think much of the value and decision making process would hinge on one's comfort with the rental system. Or you could simply buy a new resale at BCV or BWV in 2043. I could see that making sense for many, having some resale points at BLT or VGF to walk to MK and some at BCV or BWV to walk to Epcot and skyliner. I've still not made my first trip and I'm already thinking a split stay between my home resort at BLT and BCV would make a lot of sense. My current 7 month availability at BCV seems to offer little value already though based on availability calculator. Was trying (unsuccessfully) to talk my wife into an extra teeny 50 pointer at BCV to do 3 nights in a studio each visit. This would likely cost between $9-10k with closing costs and I realized I can rent or transfer the points for about $1k per trip without any long term obligations and dues. I find the endless customization fascinating!

Exactly why I split stay pretty much every trip, even when I travel 3 nights 99% of the time.

I own my two favorites, so I don’t ever have to worry about trades. I do own another 300 SSR as SAP to help upgrade when needed…but honestly, if Poly tower is a new association then I will buy there and possibly SSR will go.

But it’s why I always say buy where you want to stay, if there is such a place, or buy something that works because on the end, the only thing really guaranteed is staying at your home resort.

I also think if things go the way I think they will, you will see more people who own different home resorts, even if restricted there, to have the flexibility. I bought resale at RIV because it is indeed my top resort and I can be happy there without any issue moving forward!

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I don’t think all the SSR owners that use it strictly as SAP won’t think that way!

Personally, I never understood SAP….
Once in a while I will book a trip at another resort…. Mostly because I’m told to….

But for the most part I like confirmed, locked in at 11 months prior so if I want to stay at another resort I buy points there, and then rent the ones I don’t use….. works out well…

 

[babesboo99]

We have decided we will wait till our October vacation and buy then. This will give use some more time to save more for the down payment. I'm still wondering which one to buy but I'm leaning towards GF.

 

[RoseGold]

I have read over the years that no more than 10 to 15% of the resort owners are not original owners. And it takes a while to get there.

I don't see how that's possible. In 2015, The Orlando Sentinel put the foreclosure auction rate at half of a percent, and that's when pretty much anyone should have been selling resale instead of getting foreclosed because it was pretty hard to be underwater on DVC.

Now, it is much easier to be underwater. I would imagine the rate is much higher.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't see how that's possible. In 2015, The Orlando Sentinel put the foreclosure auction rate at half of a percent, and that's when pretty much anyone should have been selling resale instead of getting foreclosed because it was pretty hard to be underwater on DVC.

Now, it is much easier to be underwater. I would imagine the rate is much higher.

If DVD has foreclosed on a property and takes it back, then the points were never resale to begin with so that is not what I was referring to.

I am referring to the number of points at a resort that are resale points vs. those still owned by someone who bought direct.

The only time points move from the direct to resale column is when the original owner sells it on the resale market to someone else. No matter how many times that contract changes hands, it never changes the % of resale points again So, if owner X sells a 100 point BLT contract to owner Y, that is one 100 point resale contract. If owner Y sells it again to owner Z, it is still one 100 point resale contract. The owner may be different but it does nothing to impact the % of a resort that is now owned by resale owners...because those 100 points were already resale points when owner Z bought them.

Every time DVD takes back a contract through ROFR, they move points out of the resale owner column and back into the direct points column.

For example, I bought my SSR contract on the resale market and DVD just bought it back...those 300 points that were resale are no longer resale...they are direct points again. That move actually lowered the % of points at SSR that are resale points.

That is where the 10 to 15% number has come from Now, could it be slightly higher? Sure, but if a resort has 4 million points...like Poly...even at 15%, that is 600,000 points. That is a lot of points but still only a small % of the resort. That is why I said it takes a very long time to see any type of imbalance between the % of resale points in comparison to direct points.

 

[RoseGold]

My point is foreclosures alone would put the rate way higher than that, if 1/2 percent gets foreclosed every year. And that number has got to be way higher with CCV and RIV easy to be underwater, so foreclosure is a better option resale now for some.

That number is the auctions from 2015, which isn't Disney taking it back, that's a public auction.

 

[Sandisw]

My point is foreclosures alone would put the rate way higher than that, if 1/2 percent gets foreclosed every year. And that number has got to be way higher with CCV and RIV easy to be underwater, so foreclosure is a better option resale now for some.

That number is the auctions from 2015, which isn't Disney taking it back, that's a public auction.

Half a percent of what? The entire resort? Of total DVC contracts? And foreclosing would be for those who financed correct? Maybe a handful of dues went that way?

Again, even at 1/2 percent a year, assuming that is not more than one resort it takes 20 years alone to get to 10%…and add on some resale, you can get the figures close to what I posted.

Now, could some of the 2042 resorts be larger than that now? Sure.

But my point is that it takes a very long time to have that many resale points in the system to play any kind of role in things.

ETA. Just read the article. It says Disney gets a lot of those back so they do not all get bought by resale buyers.

It also said it was about 900 contracts a year went to auction. So spread out across more than one the resorts? That isn’t going to impact the ratio that much for a long time .

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

To answer the OP, I would take advantage of the nice GF direct incentives and buy direct there. It’ll retain its value and still will be important to have 11-month home booking advantage. AK, I think, is crazy expensive direct since they upped the price again. Availability isn’t usually an issue there, either. I would buy AK resale.