What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[dvcgirl67]

I'm honestly just amazed at some of the answers here. Yes, we're going to see a decrease in hospitalizations from our mitigation efforts. But this virus isn't magically going to disappear. It will still exist in our communities. Everyone has to make the decisions that they see as best for their family. For my family, we won't travel internationally until there is a vaccine. We won't travel to Disney where there are large groups of people co-mingling where potential outbreaks can occur. I'd worry whether the greater Orlando area could handle that. I am not someone who enjoys cruising, but honestly, cruising before there is a vaccine is like playing Russian roulette. If there's an outbreak on any ship, you'd need to worry about whether or not local countries, ports, etc would allow your ship to even dock to offload sick patients. The way I look at it is that we'll stick close to home for the next year or so. It's not a high price to pay in order to avoid getting this virus before we get our arms around this as a nation and as a world.

 

[Drfate102]

The only thing I can control is saying I love you. Not sure I can accept that.

In the end, that is what truly matters.

But the point I was trying to make is that your wife may know what to do, but what if she goes into the hospital the day after you? What happens to the kids? That's a new reality that I was saying people should think about. I know what to do for my DH, and he knows what to do for me, but now, my kids (teens) know who they call if we are both admitted with breathing issues and where to find the wills and the passwords. I never would have had that conversation with them before this.

We are not currently blessed with children. But I understand that those conversations need to take place. I am aware of my Mom's wishes. When this entire thing started, my wife was suppose to fly to California for her Dad's memorial, that has all been pushed back.

 

[AquaDame]

We're getting off topic again...

 

[aggiedog]

Personally, I think the "we're all going to die anyways so why live in fear" is not really grasping the problem. If you are young, you probably won't die from Covid, even if you did get symptoms (though you could die - lots of stories of 30-50yo's out there dying.) But more likely, you'll catch the virus, never know you had it, and instead give it to someone else. On average, you'll give it to 2.5 people, who then will each give it to 2.5 people. Ten iterations of that equals 59,000 people. Some of those will surely be higher risk of severe disease and fatality from Covid, and will die, or get sick enough to have permanent lung problems for the rest of their lives. That could be your parent, neighbor, or co-worker. Or maybe someone you don't know. Does that make a difference, in the end?

I'm not saying never leave your house until there's a vaccine or herd immunity, but I think assuming super crowded places like WDW, or a cruise with continued enclosed spaces, are safe and no problem is a bit like whistling past the graveyard, or, and I don't mean this as an insult, selfish. Unfortunately, our actions with this disease affect way more than just ourselves.

ETA - so, to stay on topic, "normal" travel may be available sooner than most epidemiologists would recommend, but it might not be a good idea. Or maybe WDW will only operate at diminished capacity. Interesting thought, what fraction of normal admissions would allow social distancing of any sort? 20%? It is SOOO crowded there normally.

 

[o&smom]

Prediction here from experts is that airlines will be back to normal travel in June.

Sure hope so! We have the last two weeks in ?June planned in Ixtapa, Mexico. Really need a vacation!

 

[dvcgirl67]

[QUOTE="aggiedog, post: 61753233, member: 428473"

ETA - so, to stay on topic, "normal" travel may be available sooner than most epidemiologists would recommend, but it might not be a good idea. Or maybe WDW will only operate at diminished capacity. Interesting thought, what fraction of normal admissions would allow social distancing of any sort? 20%? It is SOOO crowded there normally.
[/QUOTE]

You've hit the nail on the head. Yes, the "all clear" is eventually going to be given. That doesn't mean that it will be entirely safe. They still have been unable to get Disneyland Shanghai open, and they are a couple of months ahead of us. They've opened up resort hotel at a limited capacity, and some "recreation areas", some, but not all restaurants, but not the park itself. You have to fill out a health form when you arrive, then have your temperature taken when you enter buildings. And you need to wear a mask at all times unless you're eating in a restaurant. Sounds awesome....lol!

 

[o&smom]

Everyone should watch Oregon’s Corona virus tv ads. Google them.

 

[Evin321]

I have a cruise booked in August to Alaska and have no question this cruise will be cancelled.
The idea that a cruise ship will sail before a vaccine is available or herd immunity is established is a fairytale even Disney wouldn’t risk. The risk of an outbreak on a boat is significant and almost a given, and tempered by the liability any cruise company would face of they sailed too soon.
This issue isn’t limited to cruising but also to any significant gathering such as sporting events and god forbid Disney world. Flattening of the curve only works as long as the populace agrees and a second peak is assured if the things open too soon.
Get used to it folks, this is the new normal.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Prediction here from experts is that airlines will be back to normal travel in June.

I have a cruise booked in August to Alaska and have no question this cruise will be cancelled.
The idea that a cruise ship will sail before a vaccine is available or herd immunity is established is a fairytale even Disney wouldn’t risk. The risk of an outbreak on a boat is significant and almost a given, and tempered by the liability any cruise company would face of they sailed too soon.
This issue isn’t limited to cruising but also to any significant gathering such as sporting events and god forbid Disney world. Flattening of the curve only works as long as the populace agrees and a second peak is assured if the things open too soon.
Get used to it folks, this is the new normal.

You're 100% right. Disney is accepting bookings beginning in June. They may stick to that, but they will absolutely have to limit capacity in hotels, parks, restaurants, etc. I'm just not sure they're going to be able to do it.

 

[ChicosWife]

Agreed. The minute people get a screaming good deal they be back in droves and this whole thing will be a distant memory.

 

[vegs1]

For those who say they will cruise or travel as soon as you’re able to book and go, please remember to check your governments travel advisories as well as your travel insurance to be sure you’re covered.

If your government has an “avoid all cruise travel” warning, even though they are up and running, you may not be covered if something should happen and your travel insurance won’t cover pandemics.

Just be safe....not sorry.

 

[Husker Mike]

United has pushed out their credits for cancelled flights to two years from when they were issued to be rebooked, and then another 11 months to actually fly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1246523956691111937

They are signaling that it's very possible it's going to take at least 12-18 months for things to get to normal, because you may be able to use your credits from cancellations last month to fly in February 2023.

 

[jlwhitney]

Reading different points of view here is interesting.

Then jumping to today's news that areas in China opened public places such as parks and it's right away overcrowded in interesting as well.

How will Disney be when it opens again? Parks and Cruises. Social media seems divided between 'there's no way that I'm traveling before a vaccine' and 'I'll be there the day they open' and everything in between. People from both points of view mention they expect it to be quiet in the parks and that there will be good deals with the cruise lines to attract people. Of course, it's a different culture, but China's experience today seems like it will be the opposite.

Very curious to see how it's going 'back to normal'... with a whisper or a bang?

My personal prediction? June 1st; I've got a flight to Europe to catch, and I'm planning to go and have some fun. When it comes to cruising? I would be on the next cruise: from Florida in May or Northern Europe in June.

WDW will be hard to judge since even if open in June I don’t know that i see as

United has pushed out their credits for cancelled flights to two years from when they were issued to be rebooked, and then another 11 months to actually fly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1246523956691111937

They are signaling that it's very possible it's going to take at least 12-18 months for things to get to normal, because you may be able to use your credits from cancellations last month to fly in February 2023.

I think we also have to seperate daily life and big vacations. Daily life, work schools activities will go back much quicker and sooner than travel.

 

[LeslieG]

If the airlines start extending the rebooking window, I wonder if DCL will extend the 15 month time frame to rebook. If they do that, I may be more inclined to let my money ride instead of taking a refund.

 

[smmco]

Prediction here from experts is that airlines will be back to normal travel in June.

My flight to Berlin in August was just canceled. The number of domestic and international flights cancelled this Summer is staggering. I think it will be a couple of years before airlines recover from this. Layoffs and bankruptcies are coming. Just a reminder to everyone to keep an eye on any flights you have booked.

 

[Summer2018]

I find it amazing that after everything that's going on that anyone would ever want to go on a cruise again. Or that the cruise industry is going to survive this.

I agree. You couldn't pay me to go on a cruise ship.

 

[Summer2018]

I think it will be a year. I'm booked at WDW in June, and my travel agent is cancelling our trip and hopefully rebooking us for next July 2021 if American Airlines allows it. The earliest I would feel safe to travel is April 2021.

TBH, it's hard to predict since this virus is new to everyone.

 

[Carol_]

May 2020 it’ll start to let up, unless you watch doomsday cult news channels, in which case enjoy your home as you’re never leaving again.

 

[Chrissy-Mickey]

My flight to Berlin in August was just canceled. The number of domestic and international flights cancelled this Summer is staggering. I think it will be a couple of years before airlines recover from this. Layoffs and bankruptcies are coming. Just a reminder to everyone to keep an eye on any flights you have booked.

Did they give a reason as to why it was canceled?
Some of my family members have a flight at the end of this month to Europe and I have one in June. No word on cancellations.

 

[AquaDame]

May 2020 it’ll start to let up, unless you watch doomsday cult news channels, in which case enjoy your home as you’re never leaving again.

Start to let up sure, but crowded theme parks and packed cruise ships? They're kind of worse case scenarios when you have to maintain social distance. I expect to be back at work and grocery shopping long before going into really big tightly packed crowds is a normal occurrence again. My calm and collected husband shocked me when he asked if we should bother booking dining for our planned trip in October. He doesn't think it'll happen, but I booked a few things in case it does.