What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

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Yes. People don't realize that we are on the verge of a much bigger crises than the Great Depression if we don't start the engine back up soon. I think 30% unemployment will look like wishful thinking if this keeps up for too long. The economy has never been turned off like this in modern times.

I understand the danger of the virus. I understand it isn't just the flu. But to say lives are always more important than money is a) not how society has ever worked, and b) shows a major underestimation of what a second great depression actually means (hint, it isn't just about bank accounts).

We have always accepted risk to allow convenience, commerce, and modern life. For example, if we published every auto-accident death, you would see 3,700 deaths per day. It would look like a bloody massacre. Under our current risk tolerance level for the virus, that would mean an end to all automobile travel no matter the cost to society.

A severe and lasting depression could be far more detrimental to society than the deaths caused by this virus (mental health, suicide, and significant loss of quality of life for billions of people). The people hurt the worst will be the lowest socioeconomic levels. They aren't concerned about bank accounts, they are concerned about feeding their families and having utilities and shelter.

Not to mention that all the "essential procedures" you are hearing are not happening at hospitals are more essential than you think. For example, treatment of heart disease, cancer, etc. What are the lasting health effects of stopping those procedures for months on end?

The part that bothers me the most is that I think there is a middle-ground that would have been much better than these long isolation (for non-essential workers) where the virus will likely just rage again once we come out of hiding.

First, each country should have spared no expense to build temporary facilities, ventilators, testing kits, and protective equipment.

There is a middle ground here where businesses stayed open with extreme protective measures (such as mandatory masks, readily placed hand sanitizer, and mandatory table distancing in restaurants). Infected individuals should have been quickly isolated.

Yes, there would be more deaths. Yes, hospitals would have been overwhelmed at times. But, we would have had not collapsed modern society in the process. People die. It stinks. But we are animals susceptible to disease and death. It is a fact.

We have accepted significant risk and death in so many areas to make society better as a whole. We used to tolerate risk, even death. We need to quickly pull up our pants and face this thing head on.
I agree with everything you said. Just to add hospital admissions for COVID have been way below what was predicted. Most states are not overwhelmed. I have a feeling the death rate from this will also be much lower than predicted. I think if this goes on much longer will have more suicides than COVID deaths.
I work at a hospital that is normally at 100% capacity this time of year and we are at about 50%. Where are all the people that need medical treatment that don't have COVID? I'm not talking about just the elective surgeries. Where are all our Chest pain and stroke patients? Some of us wonder if people are just going to die in their homes because they are afraid to come to the hospital. We only have about 500 people in our state hospitalized with COVID. We have a population of 7 million.

I just don't see how this goes on past April 30. People are going to lose their minds along with everything else. I have a job and I feel constantly stressed out. I felt a little nervous after 2008, but nothing like now. I'm never been so scared about the future in my life. I could care less about the virus.
 
Yes. People don't realize that we are on the verge of a much bigger crises than the Great Depression if we don't start the engine back up soon. I think 30% unemployment will look like wishful thinking if this keeps up for too long. The economy has never been turned off like this in modern times.

I understand the danger of the virus. I understand it isn't just the flu. But to say lives are always more important than money is a) not how society has ever worked, and b) shows a major underestimation of what a second great depression actually means (hint, it isn't just about bank accounts).

We have always accepted risk to allow convenience, commerce, and modern life. For example, if we published every auto-accident death, you would see 3,700 deaths per day. It would look like a bloody massacre. Under our current risk tolerance level for the virus, that would mean an end to all automobile travel no matter the cost to society.

A severe and lasting depression could be far more detrimental to society than the deaths caused by this virus (mental health, suicide, and significant loss of quality of life for billions of people). The people hurt the worst will be the lowest socioeconomic levels. They aren't concerned about bank accounts, they are concerned about feeding their families and having utilities and shelter.

Not to mention that all the "essential procedures" you are hearing are not happening at hospitals are more essential than you think. For example, treatment of heart disease, cancer, etc. What are the lasting health effects of stopping those procedures for months on end?

The part that bothers me the most is that I think there is a middle-ground that would have been much better than these long isolation (for non-essential workers) where the virus will likely just rage again once we come out of hiding.

First, each country should have spared no expense to build temporary facilities, ventilators, testing kits, and protective equipment.

There is a middle ground here where businesses stayed open with extreme protective measures (such as mandatory masks, readily placed hand sanitizer, and mandatory table distancing in restaurants). Infected individuals should have been quickly isolated.

Yes, there would be more deaths. Yes, hospitals would have been overwhelmed at times. But, we would have had not collapsed modern society in the process. People die. It stinks. But we are animals susceptible to disease and death. It is a fact.

We have accepted significant risk and death in so many areas to make society better as a whole. We used to tolerate risk, even death. We need to quickly pull up our big boy/girl/people pants and face this thing head on.

That 3,700/day auto accidents is a worldwide number. US auto accidents average 104 per day. To put that in perspective in a month’s time US covid deaths have equaled 4 months of auto accidents already, and every model has us exceeding 38k Covid deaths.

For whatever reason people like to compare covid to car deaths, but in the US covid deaths will exceed total auto deaths this year.

If this raged unchecked the estimates of death were 2 million Americans, double the normal annual deaths. Without any other factors that would have taken a huge toll on the economy.
 
That 3,700/day auto accidents is a worldwide number. US auto accidents average 104 per day. To put that in perspective in a month’s time US covid deaths have equaled 4 months of auto accidents already, and every model has us exceeding 38k Covid deaths.

For whatever reason people like to compare covid to car deaths, but in the US covid deaths will exceed total auto deaths this year.

If this raged unchecked the estimates of death were 2 million Americans, double the normal annual deaths. Without any other factors that would have taken a huge toll on the economy.
80k Americans died from the flu in 2018.
 

I think some people live in a bubble and are out of touch with reality. Everyone will be affected by 30% unemployment.
Some of the Baltic counties are reopening schools and businesses this month at least some countries are getting off this crazy train.
You can't compare the U.S. to the Baltic countries. Each country is different with a different set of curves. For example, China already began restarting their economy 1.5 months ago (end of Feb.). However, just because China is doing it doesn't mean that the U.S. should be doing it right now. You can slowly ramp up and make sure infection rates don't increase by increasing the number of testing.

Also, for every job lost, there are other job opportunities. The medical field will be understaffed (not just medical personnel, but medical manufacturing). Shipping and logistic industries will also be understaffed. Tourism will take a big hit. I think the fact that the cruise ships have been treated so horribly will be a huge red flag for people for a while.

Again the way to open up faster is to test people. Those who have already recovered from corona virus will ensure at least a certain segment can safely return to work and vacation, etc.
 
Not to mention that all the "essential procedures" you are hearing are not happening at hospitals are more essential than you think. For example, treatment of heart disease, cancer, etc. What are the lasting health effects of stopping those procedures for months on end?

I was just thinking about this when my neighbor told me her mammogram was cancelled. Imagine how many women are not able to get a mammogram for 2-3 months, or even longer, and have breast cancer that just continues to go undetected and spread? As a breast cancer survivor who has an excellent prognosis due to early detection, I find this greatly disturbing.
 
I’m on the 8/13. Our flights were cancelled by the airline. We were going to Berlin before the cruise. I may hold off until May 12 to decide. Maybe they’ll offer a cruise credit to rebook. If we have to switch to next year will do the 10 day next August. I booked with AA miles. Hopefully there still around next year so I can use my miles. Airlines are losing about 60 million a day. Delta said they’ll be out of cash by June. I bet most of them will be filing for bankruptcy in the next year.

Im sure this is just for the next month or two, but airlines won’t fly cruise passengers. They have no way of knowing you’ve been on a cruise so that seems like a stupid thing to try to implement.
To answer your question I have no freaking idea.
Oh wow. Well, sorry about your flight and thanks for the info (especially about airlines not flying cruise passengers). I have no freaking idea what I’m doing either.
 
You can't compare the U.S. to the Baltic countries. Each country is different with a different set of curves. For example, China already began restarting their economy 1.5 months ago (end of Feb.). However, just because China is doing it doesn't mean that the U.S. should be doing it right now. You can slowly ramp up and make sure infection rates don't increase by increasing the number of testing.

Also, for every job lost, there are other job opportunities. The medical field will be understaffed (not just medical personnel, but medical manufacturing). Shipping and logistic industries will also be understaffed. Tourism will take a big hit. I think the fact that the cruise ships have been treated so horribly will be a huge red flag for people for a while.

Again the way to open up faster is to test people. Those who have already recovered from corona virus will ensure at least a certain segment can safely return to work and vacation, etc.
For every job lost there are other opportunities? Really? You really think with 30% unemployment you can just go out and get another job. So only people that have had coronavirus and have antibodies can return to work and take a vacation? We reward people that got Corona. Huh? I think I see Corona parties in the future.
 
Oh wow. Well, sorry about your flight and thanks for the info (especially about airlines not flying cruise passengers). I have no freaking idea what I’m doing either.
I'm still taking a wait and see approach for the next month. I haven't given up on it. I can easily rebook my flights since I'm using miles. I think the airline thing is just for the shutdown and honestly, they have no idea you were on a cruise. On a positive note Denmark will open businesses in May.
 
To answer the original question we will not see normal travel unless there is an effective treatment because the fear will be too great
I don't know about that. I think there's plenty of people that want to live their life. Those that are scared can stay holed up in their homes. Everyone wins.
 
Also, what people seem to be forgetting is if we don’t have measures to contain this, everyone will be sick at the same time and work won’t be able to happen because there will be so few people to do it. In New York, 20% of the police force is sick. This sickness doesn’t go away in a week, people are sick for weeks and weeks. There is also no guarantee that there is immunity after you recover. And even asymptomatic carriers have significant lung damage. People seem to think that this is a little flu that all these countries are overreacting to. If the hospitals aren’t flooded, it’s because we have been taking measures. WDW, DL and cruising are my favourite vacations, but right now they are dangerous. My prediction is that they won’t open until the fall...at the earliest.
 
To answer the original question we will not see normal travel unless there is an effective treatment because the fear will be too great

Oh boy...wait until WDW opens. It might be slow for a week or two, but that place will be packed before you know it.
 
Oh boy...wait until WDW opens. It might be slow for a week or two, but that place will be packed before you know it.

I doubt it. With our unemployment levels families will have a lack of disposable income. Also with the lack of international travel it will be some time before the parks are packed
 
I was just thinking about this when my neighbor told me her mammogram was cancelled. Imagine how many women are not able to get a mammogram for 2-3 months, or even longer, and have breast cancer that just continues to go undetected and spread? As a breast cancer survivor who has an excellent prognosis due to early detection, I find this greatly disturbing.

that is so sad :(. I already predict the lawyers are going to be coming out in full force after all this.
 
This would only work for close looped cruises. Can it work? Sure.
Wouldn't people need to be re-checked every time they got off the ship? Especially on long cruises.

A virus/bug could be picked up during a port stop and not manifest itself until just prior to the end of the cruise.

Do we deny re-boarding (in a port of call) if someone who was "healthy" at the beginning of the cruise now tests positive?
 
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