The average temperature is 60's -70's. I have had to reach for the sweatshirts and even a light jacket. When I go in January, I do not plan on doing any swimming. You can get weather conducive to swimming but more often than not it will be too cold to enjoy swimming. Have a great time whatever you decide
also keep in mind that one of the water parks (not sure which) is closed for refurbishment so you'd be paying for only one park to be open and iffy warm weather...of course if there are other things you want to do like Disney Quest, then it may still be worth it.
The important thing about Central Florida weather in the winter is that it is completely unpredictable. You could have warm days with cool mornings, or you could have mornings near freezing with afternoons in the 40s or 50s. Or you could havea little of both. Or you could have something in between!
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