WDW Should Not Open in July. Discuss.

[roomthreeseventeen]

Monday numbers always lag. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

 

[ORD2KOA]

One day's statistics are meaningless, and yesterday's 6,000+ was actually a significant drop as you can see from the chart below.

I don't believe that what I've been saying all along in this thread has been meaningless. Maybe that's not what you actually meant, but it's what it sounded like to me.

 

[stephk1981]

We feel exactly the same! But we were talking about this in another thread, what about the daily WDW security visits? Have those been stopped?

Sorry, haven't read the other thread, but I would think they'd stop doing room checks. Or maybe that's just me being * hopeful* that they won't be doing them. I'd rather not have to air out the room every day! Have a good trip when you all go!

 

[JimMIA]

I don't believe that what I've been saying all along in this thread has been meaningless. Maybe that's not what you actually meant, but it's what it sounded like to me.

I'm just saying that you can't yank one day's data out of the pile without losing context. In this particular situation, I'm sure you meant that 6,000+ cases was horrible, but I was just pointing out that it's actually substantially less than we've had most days recently.

In other words, the total picture is actually somewhat worse than your one datapoint indicates.

 

[Heather07438]

DeSantis just shut this down. WDW will open.

“The theme parks have been doing great. We have to have society function… in a way that can keep people safe. Disney, I have no doubt is going to be a safe environment. I have looked at Disney’s plan and it is very, very thorough.”

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis

I'm not concerned about high spread on WDW property. Their plan is very thorough, as DeSantis pointed out.

Not all of the people at WDW stay within that bubble. They travel thru airports, stop at rest stops, stay offsite, go other places. Most other places in FL do not have the compliance WDW is expected to maintain. If case rates are currently high in the greater Orlando area, the increase in activity will collide.

It's no so much that visitors are going to become infected at WDW, more that they have increased risk to become infected or spread infection somewhere along the way. The higher area case rates get, the more risk to bring it home and seed their local area. If the area already has decent measures to curtail spread, it might not be too bad. Many places do not have good measures or compliance, leaving them more vulnerable.

 

[Christine]

I'm not concerned about high spread on WDW property. There plan is very thorough, as DeSantis pointed out.

Not all of the people at WDW stay within that bubble. They travel thru airports, stop at rest stops, stay offsite, go other places. Most other places in FL do not have the compliance WDW is expected to maintain. If case rates are currently high in the greater Orlando area, the increase in activity will collide.

It's no so much that visitors are going to become infected at WDW, more that they have increased risk to become infected or spread infection somewhere along the way. The higher area case rates get, the more risk to bring it home and seed their local area. If the area already has decent measures to curtail spread, it might not be too bad. Many places do not have good measures or compliance, leaving them more vulnerable.

I tend to agree with you here. Disney does most things right. I have no doubt they will handle the in-park protocols very well and, hopefully, they won't have any issues with non-compliant guests. I think my biggest concern would what's going on outside the "World." Right now, that area is a hotspot. I know many people will stay off-site (or stay onsite and then go offsite) for dining, shopping, whatever. And those people outside the gates have demonstrated that they don't really believe in mask compliance, safety protocols in restaurants, shutting down when there is an infection, quarantining sick employees, and so on.

People venturing off the park are risking exposures that maybe they wouldn't normally have--or heck, maybe they do. But it's then introduced within the mingling of people, like on Flight of Passage or It's a Small World, and so on.

Overall, it is my choice not to go, and I won't since Florida is a hotspot. I don't care if someone does decide to go; it's their choice. But in keeping with the subject of this thread, I don't think Disney's opening right now is going to improve the Florida situation.

 

[Heather07438]

I tend to agree with you here. Disney does most things right. I have no doubt they will handle the in-park protocols very well and, hopefully, they won't have any issues with non-compliant guests. I think my biggest concern would what's going on outside the "World." Right now, that area is a hotspot. I know many people will stay off-site (or stay onsite and then go offsite) for dining, shopping, whatever. And those people outside the gates have demonstrated that they don't really believe in mask compliance, safety protocols in restaurants, shutting down when there is an infection, quarantining sick employees, and so on.

People venturing off the park are risking exposures that maybe they wouldn't normally have--or heck, maybe they do. But it's then introduced within the mingling of people, like on Flight of Passage or It's a Small World, and so on.

Overall, it is my choice not to go, and I won't since Florida is a hotspot. I don't care if someone does decide to go; it's their choice. But in keeping with the subject of this thread, I don't think Disney's opening right now is going to improve the Florida situation.

Yes, that too. WDW's measures will work best to keep case rates low. I don't think it was designed to pull high rates back down. It's a different challenge when rates are already high because any slip up holds a higher risk, and that multiplies upon itself.

 

[dlavender]

One day's statistics are meaningless, and yesterday's 6,000+ was actually a significant drop as you can see from the chart below.

Saturday's total of more than 11,000 was the most cases we've ever had in a single day, but it's even more dramatic if you look back further. Seven of the last 11 days have been >8,000 new cases.

Relevant to WDW, both Orange County and Osceola County (Kissimmee) have been spiking dramatically for the last couple of weeks with both new cases and positive test percentages going way up.

View attachment 506787

You can't just look at one metric. If they don't test anyone, cases are 0. Does that mean it was a good day?



As you can see when you look at a larger piece of the puzzle, they tested 25k less people. So, obviously less cases. However, what is alarming, is that the positivity rate is sitting higher with every 7 day average.

To be clear I am agreeing with you here. Springboarding.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Additionally, CMs do not live in the Disney bubble. They go home, they shop for food, they go to bars and restaurants and what not. So you're exposing yourself to whatever they are.

 

[randumb0]

Living in Orlando I can say it's pretty widespread now as I know several people with it

 

[Wiltony]

Living in Orlando I can say it's pretty widespread now as I know several people with it

I know it's all anecdotal, but how are they doing? Sniffles and fever? Bed-ridden? Hospitalized? Hope no one you know has experienced major issues.

 

[Colleen27]

Yes, tourism states will have to figure out new jobs. Broadway isn't opening. Just like for our town, the oil jobs are not coming back. Like industrialization in the 1800's where tons of people could no longer live on small farms, the economy will have to adjust. It will be awful and painful, but Broadway opening up would cause it to spread so quickly among the cast. My daughter needs to find a different profession. Even if you open, the virus will get them. So open up, but it won't save those jobs, only kill more people.

You make it sound like this is going to be permanent.

will it be enforce though? if so-how?

i live in a state where masks are mandatory. in order for a bsns on private property (like wdw) to enforce they would have to call in local law enforcement and press charges on a personal basis. that means a bsns has to be willing and able to have enough security personnel to deal with each and every 'offender', and then take them into their custody to then call in local law enforcement who can choose to or not to press charges.

Or they could just kick people out and potentially ban them, as they do with other rule violations. Most people who spend what a Disney vacation costs probably don't feel strongly enough about violating rules they agreed to when they booked to lose out on the park time they spent hundreds or thousands of dollars for.

Im with you on the disappointment and embarrassment of our countries response. However Trump said early on the states would get to manage this on their own. So in a sense we are treating the US like Europe. Thats why some states with competent leadership are doing well and while the ones without that are doing poorly. You cant look at the US as a whole really in terms of whats going on in each state. But you can definitely look at the US as whole for the mind blowing failure of leadership out of Washington.

But since states cannot effectively close their borders or impose any significant/real restrictions on interstate movement, we're all only doing as well as the least proactive state.

The real factors are if people are social distancing or not.
Large gatherings with zero social distance are super spreaders.

You missed one: indoor vs. outdoor. Contact tracing is telling us that the setting is perhaps the single most important factor. That's why we haven't seen upticks from the much-publicized crowded beaches and pool parties or from either set of protests, but have seen outbreaks tied to bars, restaurants and house parties.

We will have to disagree.
I think it's common sense that large gathering non social distancing protests and conventions are super spreaders. You don't.

This idea that "common sense" holds more weight than actual science and data is a big part of why we're in this ridiculous position right now. It is also "common sense" that a cloth mask can't contain viral particles, "common sense" that with a median age of 77 for fatalities that young people don't have to worry about the virus, etc. Common sense doesn't translate well to new and unprecedented situations, because by definition there is nothing "common" about what's happening.

 

[randumb0]

I know it's all anecdotal, but how are they doing? Sniffles and fever? Bed-ridden? Hospitalized? Hope no one you know has experienced major issues.

One coworker was hospitalized and another is asymptomatic. One of my family members was sick two weeks ago and is better now. Another person's child tested positive but never showed any symptoms.

 

[randumb0]

Bank of America temporarily closes 50 Central Florida branches amid coronavirus pandemic

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/bus...0200706-sb7n27rqxjgxvekqhlhpub6gwa-story.html

 

[Wiltony]

One coworker was hospitalized and another is asymptomatic. One of my family members was sick two weeks ago and is better now. Another person's child tested positive but never showed any symptoms.

Thanks for sharing. Hope your co-worker feels better soon. I don't know anyone who has it or has had it (I'm in Colorado, we're doing fairly well here) and just curious about people's experiences.

 

[Colleen27]

Think a 'mild' case of Covid-19 doesn’t sound so bad? Think again

Mild cases mean you aren't in the ICU. Not that you don't have permanent and terrible damage.

We don't yet have a prevalence for this, though, nor do we have a good handle on the true scope of contagion (though a serology study out of Spain suggests the CDC estimate of 10x confirmed is a good one). So we just don't know how many people suffering mild cases will struggle to recover.

The reality is that most people who don't know folks who have had the virus do not understand how awful it is, and thus pretend that it's not that bad.

This assumption is really obnoxious. I do know people who have had the virus, and I'm waiting on antibody results myself. But I've seen first hand a really wild range of cases, from two friends who never would have known they were sick if not for testing because of a confirmed case in their workplace, to a healthy 40-something woman who teetered on the brink of hospitalization for her breathing for almost 3 weeks (but then bounced back really quickly after turning the corner), to a teacher who was in ICU for weeks in April and is still not fully recovered, to a couple of older people who have died of it. I know the virus can be very bad. I'm still pretty middle of the road on what I think is the best way to contain it, and to imply that only the ignorant could possibly disagree with the strictest possible containment measures is insulting and dismissive of the fact that there's legitimate room for differences of opinion on a situation in which the science is still so unsettled.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

This assumption is really obnoxious.

It's actually a fact that's been polled about. The more people know someone who has been sick or died, the more precautions they take.

 

[ORD2KOA]

Bank of America just announced they're temporarily closing 50 central Florida locations because of COVID-19

Orlando Sentinel

 

[Jrb1979]

Bank of America just announced they're temporarily closing 50 central Florida locations because of COVID-19

Orlando Sentinel

I wouldn't be surprised to see more businesses do the same.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Bank of America just announced they're temporarily closing 50 central Florida locations because of COVID-19

Orlando Sentinel

Again see my comment in the other thread. You would be accurate to state because of the coronavius pandemic but not because of COVID-19 itself. Least there's nothing to support it.