WDW Should Not Open in July. Discuss.

[bavaria]

Bolding is mine. I tend to agree with you. I always wonder what the long term outcomes they expect to see from this. I understand it in the short term, but they run the risk of re-infection whenever they do open back up. Look at what's happening in Australia (sorry I forget which state right now). I agree with not allowing travel in right now, but none of these nations are self sustaining enough to remain closed off forever. Or even long term honestly.

Exactly. That is when a few cases becomes a big deal, and the long term challenge is how to deal with the reality that there will be cases when things reopen. The EU decided to open to 'safe' countries and is now balancing new cases vs continuing with reopening. Yet people seem to jump on the outbreaks as 'proof' that countries should remain closed.

The long term loss as well as the impact on other health care needs to be balanced. Several countries have almost painted themselves into a corner. What will happen when Trudeau decides that it is time to open Canada to more visitors, and cases rise? But he needs to eventually do what Merkel did, and lead the country to consider all aspects, not just COVID. It's not an easy task.

I'm glad that I have visited Australia a lot recently, and I know that they have a lot of domestic business. But the reality is that they still need international trade and tourism. And then there is the impact on other countries - Fiji, one of the poorest countries in the world, will have even more starvation thanks to the policies of Australia and NZ, as they will have zero tourism revenue from those sources.

There is no easy answer to all of this, but the reality is that the expectation to remain at zero will not work for most countries. Vietnam is an outlier, and what they are doing/did and their economy/politics are unique to them.

 

[bavaria]

Again, it makes sense now. It is not a long term plan. So what happens when the border does open up again? Or is Canada really just going to become a completely self-sustaining nation. Because at some point, you won't be able to have both - support/product from other countries while continuing to keep your border closed to them.

They are losing so much revenue this year in tourism already. They could open to the EU, but choose not to. And there is no way local tourism will replace the revenue lost, and no way locals will pay the prices EU/Asian/American visitors pay.

There is and have been flights to Europe and Asia and America all through this, and many people travelling to/from Canada daily, despite what some posters say or think. Yet even so, cases are not increasing much. And the reality is that much of what was imported from Canada came from the US, not from Europe or Asia. (With some from Iran at the start)

The long term economic impact on these countries who remain closed will be felt probably later and for longer than for those that have begun to open.

 

[Jrb1979]

Again, it makes sense now. It is not a long term plan. So what happens when the border does open up again? Or is Canada really just going to become a completely self-sustaining nation. Because at some point, you won't be able to have both - support/product from other countries while continuing to keep your border closed to them.

We are also giving back support/product right now. The border is open to keep the supply chain going for both countries. Its not meant to be long term. The worry from majority of Canadians is the high case numbers that many states have and people bringing it here. When numbers start to get under control I have a feeling the border will open.

 

[Jrb1979]

They are losing so much revenue this year in tourism already. They could open to the EU, but choose not to. And there is no way local tourism will replace the revenue lost, and no way locals will pay the prices EU/Asian/American visitors pay.

There is and have been flights to Europe and Asia and America all through this, and many people travelling to/from Canada daily, despite what some posters say or think. Yet even so, cases are not increasing much. And the reality is that much of what was imported from Canada came from the US, not from Europe or Asia. (With some from Iran at the start)

The long term economic impact on these countries who remain closed will be felt probably later and for longer than for those that have begun to open.

I know flights have been open through all of this so if people want to come here they can. Just they must quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. If you don't you will be fined. They just fined a couple from Minnesota $1000 each for not complying.

 

[bavaria]

Here is the case Jamie mentioned, I believe.

https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/n...er-rules-after-student-tests-positive-470037/
The amount of vitriol and vigilantism towards Americans on reddit by Canadians is to me quite shocking. (And the same holds true for Australians talking about Asian countries) It goes way beyond what I see here ie not just smug, but really ugly. It seems like this has allowed people to become racist towards Asians, and ugly towards Americans.

There have been a number of reports of 'Americans' crossing the border for leisure, but people forget that Canada is open to many, including citizens, dual citizens, foreign students, essential travel, family members, etc. And many of those 'foreign' license plates are people working in the US (like in CA for example in the tech industry) who chose to return to Canada to ride out the pandemic and work remotely. The recent events in HK may result in many more going to Canada legitimately in the near future. Many of us around the world are 'commuters' for work and cross borders regularly with legitimate reason.

I think that the hostility towards groups of citizens is another sad side outcome of the pandemic, and has been legitimized in the name of 'safety'.

 

[musika]

Again, it makes sense now. It is not a long term plan. So what happens when the border does open up again? Or is Canada really just going to become a completely self-sustaining nation. Because at some point, you won't be able to have both - support/product from other countries while continuing to keep your border closed to them.

I'm not sure I understand this argument. The supply chain's never been closed. Are you saying that companies will stop wanting to do business with Canada because we don't let their citizens in? That seems like a bit of a far stretch. It's a symbiotic relationship after all - they need to sell us goods as much as we need to buy them.

Again, the long term plan was never "get rid of covid in Canada" - it was lower our infection rate enough that our resource-strapped medical system could handle the incoming volume of serious illness. I don't lean towards nationalism in any way but I think given the fact our health care system struggles on a good day (and these are not good days), it makes sense to keep our border closed to non-residents who are not here for essential purposes. Of course we'll see a spike when it opens back up - but the point is to keep the volume measured so we can handle it.

 

[bavaria]

I'm not sure I understand this argument. The supply chain's never been closed. Are you saying that companies will stop wanting to do business with Canada because we don't let their citizens in? That seems like a bit of a far stretch. It's a symbiotic relationship after all - they need to sell us goods as much as we need to buy them.

Again, the long term plan was never "get rid of covid in Canada" - it was lower our infection rate enough that our resource-strapped medical system could handle the incoming volume of serious illness. I don't lean towards nationalism in any way but I think given the fact our health care system struggles on a good day (and these are not good days), it makes sense to keep our border closed to non-residents who are not here for essential purposes. Of course we'll see a spike when it opens back up - but the point is to keep the volume measured so we can handle it.

There is a lot of talk in Europe of 'reciprocity'. For example, there are 12-13 'safe' non-EU countries on a list that is a recommendation for countries. Germany has said 'ok, we will accept the Japanese, but Japan has to accept us because we are both at low levels'.

Canada stands on that list of accepted safe countries, meaning you could fly to the EU today for holiday (with quarantine on return, but no quarantine on landing in the EU) But Canada has no reciprocity. That means that Canada loses on the equation as they lose the high value European summer traveller for 2020.

Even if Trudeau announces an August opening, it is pretty much too late now to salvage summer travel as Europeans are booking other destinations at this point.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

We are also giving back support/product right now. The border is open to keep the supply chain going for both countries. Its not meant to be long term. The worry from majority of Canadians is the high case numbers that many states have and people bringing it here. When numbers start to get under control I have a feeling the border will open.

You're missing my point. I said it makes sense to me now. But realistically how long can Canada remained closed to the US and other countries? And when you reopen, there WILL be more cases. It's the nature of this virus and movement.

It is a great immediate plan. It's a terrible long term plan. And I hope these countries are preparing for when those borders do reopen and the virus cases rise.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I'm not sure I understand this argument. The supply chain's never been closed. Are you saying that companies will stop wanting to do business with Canada because we don't let their citizens in? That seems like a bit of a far stretch. It's a symbiotic relationship after all - they need to sell us goods as much as we need to buy them.

Again, the long term plan was never "get rid of covid in Canada" - it was lower our infection rate enough that our resource-strapped medical system could handle the incoming volume of serious illness. I don't lean towards nationalism in any way but I think given the fact our health care system struggles on a good day (and these are not good days), it makes sense to keep our border closed to non-residents who are not here for essential purposes. Of course we'll see a spike when it opens back up - but the point is to keep the volume measured so we can handle it.

No, I'm saying politics will start playing a part. But that's about as far as I can wade into on here without risking getting in trouble.

 

[Jrb1979]

You're missing my point. I said it makes sense to me now. But realistically how long can Canada remained closed to the US and other countries? And when you reopen, there WILL be more cases. It's the nature of this virus and movement.

It is a great immediate plan. It's a terrible long term plan. And I hope these countries are preparing for when those borders do reopen and the virus cases rise.

I expect cases to rise again when the border reopens. Once it gets under control in the US then I'm sure most Canadians would be ok with opening the border.

 

[skyblue17]

I'm not sure how credible this is, but if it's is, WOOF, I'm not sure how anyone could responsibly going having this information ahead of getting there.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/union-says-disney-not-testing-orlando-employees

 

[Nayan]

Did anyone see the pic taken today of people crowded together waiting in line at 7 Dwarfs Mine Train? Oh boy .

 

[hertamaniac]

Going back to why WDW should not open......

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...ey-can-scale-up-if-covid-19-demand-increases/

 

[Heather07438]

The virus doesn't want to die out, it wants to stick around, so it is advantageous for it to find ways to better coexist with us rather than die off too quickly. But we need to continue to study this more and more.

This is an important aspect to understand about infection transmission, especially when it comes to novel contagions.

The sicker somebody gets, the more commonly they and others around them will work to limit transmission.

Less symptomatic people generally don't try as hard to thwart transmission.

Lighter strains end up being the ones in heaviest circulation. SARS, MERS, and Ebola had severe and obvious symptoms so yeah, people were extremely cautious and did everything in their power to break chains of transmission. Less lethal sometimes means most dangerous because the largest numbers of people end up exposed.

The ability for C19 to spread under the radar is a dangerous aspect. Focus only happens once enough severe reactions accumulate and by that point a community has already been saturated to the point it's extremely challenging to dial back down.

This is one of many reasons that the easiest navigation path is limiting spread by wearing masks indoors (low air circulation) or in close proximity or during long exposure. Relatively easy adjustments to keep R0 low and that makes resuming most of life much less challenging. Get case rates low, then keep them low. Our actions have a huge impact on transmission, every new study coming in continues to confirm that.

R1 is a chain, R2 is a tree. A chain is much easier for our infrastructure to manage than a tree, and a few simple adjustments help tremendously to keep this in the realm of R1.

 

[hertamaniac]

Looks like a go for Saturday.

In a statement on Tuesday, Disney’s Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Pamela Hymel, said new requirements from temperature checks, to face coverings and extra sanitation would enable guests to enjoy Disney World “responsibly.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...pening-is-on-track-for-saturday-idUSKBN248301

 

[ORD2KOA]

Looks like a go for Saturday.

Not surprising. I was thinking today about how Florida's not (FL says they are, but news reports say they aren't) doing contract tracing. If that's true, we'll never know how many cases came out of Universal opening and the same with WDW. Maybe this falls into the "it's bad for business" thinking that's prevalent in this state. The cases here in Orange jumped in June. Universal opened the first week, I think.

 

[greg9x]

Thanks. I guess I am still confused by that. Touching the pin pad can be mitigated by using a paper towel, or handwashing/sanitizing, same with the pump. Human interaction is entirely minimal (I worked/travelled in the US for years so am well aware of the differences etc) It's outside.

I just don't see it as a mid/high risk location but so many people questioned the safety of a road trip by mentioning the gas station so was curious.

Road trip stops are usually more involved than a stop at the gas station on way to work, etc. Road trips people have been in the car for a long time, when they stop they need to use the restrooms, stretch their legs, grab snacks and drinks inside the convenience store, etc. Stopping at a 4 pump small gas station not as bad as at a 20 pump travel center, especially on main travel routes that have people from all over converging and intermixing. Usually much more than just pumping gas and going.

 

[Colleen27]

Road trip stops are usually more involved than a stop at the gas station on way to work, etc. Road trips people have been in the car for a long time, when they stop they need to use the restrooms, stretch their legs, grab snacks and drinks inside the convenience store, etc. Stopping at a 4 pump small gas station not as bad as at a 20 pump travel center, especially on main travel routes that have people from all over converging and intermixing. Usually much more than just pumping gas and going.

Be that as it may, most of the "activities ranked by risk" infographics circulating by various states' health authorities put both pumping gas and quick trips to the store as low risk. Surface-based transmission appears to be rare and can be easily prevented by handwashing/sanitizing, and people don't linger in gas stations (even truck stops) so there isn't a lot of face-to-face contact involved. Even grocery shopping involves more prolonged human exposure.

 

[hertamaniac]

Not surprising. I was thinking today about how Florida's not (FL says they are, but news reports say they aren't) doing contract tracing. If that's true, we'll never know how many cases came out of Universal opening and the same with WDW. Maybe this falls into the "it's bad for business" thinking that's prevalent in this state. The cases here in Orange jumped in June. Universal opened the first week, I think.

Florida is "doing" contact tracing, but the budget is apparently not in alignment with being a robust plan at this time. Oh, I know the cases are jumping all around us in central Florida (I live outside of Orange County). In a way, this is just waiting for the somber numbers to come in knowing that there is nothing we can do except stay diligent.
The thing is...we did so well for months and then something went awry. I wish someone could identify what that was/is and amputate it now.

 

[WorldOfPooh]

Road trip stops are usually more involved than a stop at the gas station on way to work, etc. Road trips people have been in the car for a long time, when they stop they need to use the restrooms, stretch their legs, grab snacks and drinks inside the convenience store, etc. Stopping at a 4 pump small gas station not as bad as at a 20 pump travel center, especially on main travel routes that have people from all over converging and intermixing. Usually much more than just pumping gas and going.

i still find that preferable to being stuck in a canister like sardines in an airplane or airport where air circulation and oxygen are horrible. (in the current climate)