WDW Should Not Open in July. Discuss.

[RamblingMad]

One of my friends works as a nurse at a hospital in AZ. She told me that the hospital is at 120% capacity with 40% COVID-19 patients.

 

[SirDuff]

That's not really true.

It means that there's a lot more people testing positive than you want. So 80k tests a day are now bringing back triple the amount of sick people than before. Which means it is spreading faster.

Now, I agree we need more and more testing. We've needed that for months now. We aren't going to get it, I've given up. That has to come from the top, and well, let's just say its not going to.

Your first statement is true. The bolded is only true if you are testing the same number of people. Looking at just percent positive and saying that 10% indicates a crisis in terms of the level of disease is incorrect. You don't know if you are not testing enough (or only testing a specific (likely symptomatic population) or the number of cases are increasing. Or a combination of the two.

Or, to throw in a wrinkle, the sensitivity of your test has changed (or, if comparing across areas rather than time, the sensitivity of the test used in different areas is different).

Also, since the count is tests (not people tested), are you doing multiple tests on positive individuals (to see when they stop testing positive.

I agree that a high positivity is bad. I disagree that (alone) it means that the case count is in crisis. And, certainly, it is not a benchmark for how quickly the disease is spreading.
Or, if comparing across areas instead of

 

[Karin1984]

Now, I agree we need more and more testing.

It's not just the testing, it's also about
1. Having enough ICU beds
2. Have enough place in the hospitals for those who need to.
3. Making sure that those who are diagnosed positive, but do not have to go to the hospital quarantines him/herself and do not go out.
4. Properly tracing those who had contact with an infected person and take action.

Even when states can manage to fulffill 1 & 2, I have my doubts about enforcing 3 and having enough staff to do 4.

 

[dlavender]

It's not just the testing, it's also about
1. Having enough ICU beds
2. Have enough place in the hospitals for those who need to.
3. Making sure that those who are diagnosed positive, but do not have to go to the hospital quarantines him/herself and do not go out.
2. Properly tracing those who had contact with an infected person and take action.

Even when states can manage to fulffill 1 & 2, I have my doubts about enforcing 3 and having enough staff to do 4.

I'm with you. That's why I believe we are past the point of getting more testing done. It's almost too late. We've let the cat out and it's not coming back.

Just have to keep the good folks in the hospitals equipped and offer our moral support while they are left to minimize the impacts of the virus on our society.

 

[Orion Nebula]

That's not really true.

It means that there's a lot more people testing positive than you want. So 80k tests a day are now bringing back triple the amount of sick people than before. Which means it is spreading faster.

Now, I agree we need more and more testing. We've needed that for months now. We aren't going to get it, I've given up. That has to come from the top, and well, let's just say its not going to.

This... a lot of people are downplaying everything due to the "well that's because there are more tests" mentality. I am pretty sure that just confirms that the virus has infected (and is infecting) a lot more people than we thought, which means this pandemic is now even more concerning.

 

[RamblingMad]

This... a lot of people are downplaying everything due to the "well that's because there are more tests" mentality. I am pretty sure that just confirms that the virus has infected (and is infecting) a lot more people than we thought, which means this pandemic is now even more concerning.

This rationale has been going on for a while now. Only now when those people get sick there won’t be enough hospital beds.

 

[Jrb1979]

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/cor...0200707-etccqmkj5nanvodayglqmzae44-story.html
It concerns me that so many continue to downplay any numbers coming out. With Disney opening I wouldn't be surprised it gets worse.

 

[JimMIA]

So let me ask you this. Since Orlando is not in the situation Miami is in.

Actually, for the first time, Orlando IS in a similar situation to Miami -- they just have a much smaller population. Orlando's cases are rising rapidly, and their positive test percentages have gone from 3% to 15%.

Given the choice between 100% that the Walt Disney World Corp will go bankrupt or have WDW stay open,

That's a totally false choice. Disney will not go bankrupt.

WDW is only one part of the global Disney business model. ALL of the Disney parks, plus all of the merchandise and other sales associated with parks only contributed about 37% of Disney's revenue in FY 2019.

Disney will be just fine.

 

[nicolita3]

One of my friends works as a nurse at a hospital in AZ. She told me that the hospital is at 120% capacity with 40% COVID-19 patients.

Yup, and 117 deaths reported today. It's sad that this isn't being taken seriously.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

This... a lot of people are downplaying everything due to the "well that's because there are more tests" mentality. I am pretty sure that just confirms that the virus has infected (and is infecting) a lot more people than we thought, which means this pandemic is now even more concerning.

I don't know about you but it's been pretty well discussed for months (and I do mean months) that the general thought process is more people had the virus and earlier than we thought. It went undetected or once we really really knew about the virus had testing shortages. This was before it was considered a pandemic.

A recent study suspected that in a 3 week or so period in March there were up to 8.7 million people who had the virus but 80% or so went undetected or diagnosed.

So I really wouldn't say "is now even more concerning" on the basis of that because this has been knowledge already discussed and thought about for a long enough time period. Now recently Dr. Fauci has been reviewing what was also thought of in terms of theories over time that the virus mutated to become more infectious. That in itself is not meant to be a doomsday comment because that does not correspond to only one result of more deaths and more hospitalizations. The virus doesn't want to die out, it wants to stick around, so it is advantageous for it to find ways to better coexist with us rather than die off too quickly. But we need to continue to study this more and more.

 

[RamblingMad]

Yup, and 117 deaths reported today. It's sad that this isn't being taken seriously.

That’s a lot of dead people in one day.

 

[SirDuff]

One of my friends works as a nurse at a hospital in AZ. She told me that the hospital is at 120% capacity with 40% COVID-19 patients.

What’s their normal occupancy rate? Whatever it is, that’s brutal that they are 120%. And, unless it is normally really low, given that 40% of them are COVID-19, it means that a lot of people who would normally be there aren’t. Which means (or might mean) more deaths in the future that while not directly due to COVID-19, are due to the pandemic.

 

[musika]

Obviously the more we test the more positives we'll see, but isn't the point that when we know better, we do better? This is all about managing risk levels.

My understanding (here in Canada at least) regarding physical distance measures was never to eradicate the virus - it was to slow it enough so we didn't max out our hospital capacity and have to make horrible decisions about who gets the ventilator. I am happy to do my part to make that happen, and it's my belief that part of making that work is reducing my non-essential travel to hot spots where I could infect my family and bring it back to my province. My own province is not considered high risk, so I'm comfortable traveling with my family here. But I just see it as kind of a no-brainer that you don't want to travel to a place with 6K+ positive results daily (regardless of whether that increase was brought about in changes in testing protocol or not).

 

[parasail_of_congress]

I don't know about you but it's been pretty well discussed for months (and I do mean months) that the general thought process is more people had the virus and earlier than we thought. It went undetected or once we really really knew about the virus had testing shortages. This was before it was considered a pandemic.

A recent study suspected that in a 3 week or so period in March there were up to 8.7 million people who had the virus but 80% or so went undetected or diagnosed.

So I really wouldn't say "is now even more concerning" on the basis of that because this has been knowledge already discussed and thought about for a long enough time period. Now recently Dr. Fauci has been reviewing what was also thought of in terms of theories over time that the virus mutated to become more infectious. That in itself is not meant to be a doomsday comment because that does not correspond to only one result of more deaths and more hospitalizations. The virus doesn't want to die out, it wants to stick around, so it is advantageous for it to find ways to better coexist with us rather than die off too quickly. But we need to continue to study this more and more.

You seem to be agreeing with the poster to whom you responded, but are basically just commenting on semantics. It's more concerning "now" because of the continued flow of research and information. It seems probable that a lot of people had it in March and it went undetected, but I would not agree that that information is generally known by everyone, let alone the factuality of it.

 

[bavaria]

A few questions please:

- what are ICU occupancy rates in the US (SirDuff alluded to this) in a usual timeframe ie non-COVID time? ICU bed per person ratios? I have noted that Germany has the highest, and Portugal the lowest, in the EU, but they both have similar COVID outcomes due to advance planning (Germany even took patients from the Netherlands, France, Italy since we had such a high bed vacancy rate)

- how much was non-emergent treatment/surgery for non COVID delayed? the poster in Canada is correct that in most of Europe, UK, Canada treatment and surgery was delayed for many of us and we are now facing a huge backlog, even in places with low COVID. This has created a whole other health care issue, but it sounds like in the US much of the cancer etc treatment and surgery continued due to your pay per use system

- what is the fear re the gas station several mentioned? I pull up, wave my payment card (or if tvguy were with me maybe I'd enter my pin code), pump the gas and use a paper towel to cover the lever if I feel like it, replace the gas cap, and leave. No interaction, minimal touching of anything.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

You seem to be agreeing with the poster to whom you responded, but are basically just commenting on semantics. It's more concerning "now" because of the continued flow of research and information. It seems probable that a lot of people had it in March and it went undetected, but I would not agree that that information is generally known by everyone, let alone the factuality of it.

No I'm not actually agreeing.

1) I was giving information that it's already well known that people have been infected much more than we previously thought; from the various medical experts discussing it, to the antibody tests (which no aren't always accurate but we know some at least are and are approved by the FDA), to studying ILI rates over time. Now not everyone as in every citizen know that but it is something that has been talked about all over for months rather than a new hypothesis from the recent upticks in positives.

2) that doesn't mean by virtue of it more people having been positive in the past (but undiagnosed) or more people testing positive now that it's anymore concerning now because of it.

 

[Carlob]

I think Disney needs to remian closeed. I think if they open they asking for lawsuits as well as bad press that they may never be able to recover from.

 

[Karin1984]

What’s their normal occupancy rate? Whatever it is, that’s brutal that they are 120%. And, unless it is normally really low, given that 40% of them are COVID-19, it means that a lot of people who would normally be there aren’t. Which means (or might mean) more deaths in the future that while not directly due to COVID-19, are due to the pandemic.

That's what I said earlier, when there is space in the hospitals again, it takes time for the normal patients to return.
In my country (NL) , on average, pre-covid, there are about 800 - 900 ICU beds taken each day.
It has been at least 2 months since we had enough space again on the ICU, but still only between 500 - 600 beds are taken by non-Covid patients. (Around 20-30 Covid patients on ICU last few weeks).
Here you can really see the fear of people to go to the doctor & hospital to get the treatment they need. Doctors try to get their patients with long-term illnesses like cancer etc. to return, but many don't go.

- what is the fear re the gas station several mentioned? I pull up, wave my payment card (or if tvguy were with me maybe I'd enter my pin code), pump the gas and use a paper towel to cover the lever if I feel like it, replace the gas cap, and leave. No interaction, minimal touching of anything.

I'm not exactly sure where in the US this was, a year or 2 ago (?), but apparently there is quite some resistance against filling up your our tank, in certain parts of the US. I couldn't understand the reasoning back then, but apparently people think that is a 'professional's' job.

 

[bavaria]

I'm not exactly sure where in the US this was, a year or 2 ago (?), but apparently there is quite some resistance against filling up your our tank, in certain parts of the US. I couldn't understand the reasoning back then, but apparently people think that is a 'professional's' job.

I believe it is actually against the law in New Jersey to self pump? Thanks for reminding me but many people seem to think the gas station is bad on a road trip.

Now, if we are talking the bathroom situation, then yes it is quite different in America than our pay to pee system. But now is exactly when the pay to pee system is even better, and so many automated doors, etc in bathrooms. I would much rather have a clean toilet in Germany than what I see in America....

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Yep, NJ. I didn't learn to pump gas until college.