WDW Annual Pass Timing Speculation

We have a trip planned at the end of April and I’m hoping…fingers crossed,,,that APs will come back and we can upgrade our tickets while there. 🤞🏻
If they're going to do it soon, I think that's the timing, late April. Not mid March (FL/TX spring break) or early April (Easter).
 
I've been waiting for an AP since I purchased my DVC resale. Maybe with the new income from Genie+, they are making up for the loss of income from selling more APs. I also think Disney need to feel threatened to do something, so maybe APs are returning only close to 2025 with Super Nintendo World Orlando / Epic Universe. I love Disney with all my heart, but when people ask me about going to Disney for the first time and I think about Genie+, lightning lanes, individual lightning lanes, extra evening hours only for deluxe resorts, no Magical Express... I know my eyes don't shine as they used to. It's like crossing a dark period... hope it's over soon and it feels more like vacation again.
 
Maybe with the new income from Genie+, they are making up for the loss of income from selling more APs.
What loss of income from APs? They make MORE with LESS aps in the wild. Forces people who might get an ap to just buy tickets at a higher revenue per day number.

Maybe they go less days then, Disney still don't care, there are still enough people to fill the parks without ap holders clogging up the parks with their less desirable revenue per day. :)

Whatever number they want to limit passes to at WDW is still close enough to being hit that they haven't offered for sale again. Will need more people to non renew their APs OR have a drop in non ap demand for a long enough period for them to raise the cap on total APs that are allowed to be sold. Id assume at this point there's quite a few folks with APs that are renewing, even if they might not be using them to the fullest since now the precedent is set that once you get let go of the ap, who knows when you can get it back. So that is probably slowing the attrition rate pretty well.

I think late April comes and goes and no APs will be sold, not until there is a long and sustained enough drop in non ap attendance will they then need that AP revenue again. I think it very well could be next year still before they go on sale again.
 
Id assume at this point there's quite a few folks with APs that are renewing, even if they might not be using them to the fullest since now the precedent is set that once you get let go of the ap, who knows when you can get it back. So that is probably slowing the attrition rate pretty well.
[Emphasis added.]

This also has the pleasant (for Disney) side-effect of raising the per-caps on those APs.
 

I live in so cal and have a magic key. I’d like to buy an AP for WDW. If I was able to I’d go at least 2 more times (shorter trips) before my next big trip in 2024.

The cheapest out of state AP for Universal Hollywood is $211. In state they have AP for $179 and Nintendo Land just opened up over there.
 
What loss of income from APs? They make MORE with LESS aps in the wild. Forces people who might get an ap to just buy tickets at a higher revenue per day number.

Maybe they go less days then, Disney still don't care, there are still enough people to fill the parks without ap holders clogging up the parks with their less desirable revenue per day. :)

Whatever number they want to limit passes to at WDW is still close enough to being hit that they haven't offered for sale again. Will need more people to non renew their APs OR have a drop in non ap demand for a long enough period for them to raise the cap on total APs that are allowed to be sold. Id assume at this point there's quite a few folks with APs that are renewing, even if they might not be using them to the fullest since now the precedent is set that once you get let go of the ap, who knows when you can get it back. So that is probably slowing the attrition rate pretty well.

I think late April comes and goes and no APs will be sold, not until there is a long and sustained enough drop in non ap attendance will they then need that AP revenue again. I think it very well could be next year still before they go on sale again.
Unfortunately I think you're right. I hope you're wrong, but deep down I have a feeling we're all going to have to keep waiting.
 
The cheapest out of state AP for Universal Hollywood is $211. In state they have AP for $179 and Nintendo Land just opened up over there.
Yeah but I’m not a universal fan. I go every now and again and my company has their holiday party there the last few years. I don’t see myself needing a universal AP. And I don’t think I’d plan a trip to UO. Just not my thing.
 
The particulars of a virtual queue scheme do not change overall park capacity. Capacity is just how many people per hour can get through an attraction--and that's a function of staffing and operational efficiency. I don't see how G+ could change operating efficiency unless the CM at merge is starving the CMs at load, and that's not happening.

First, Virtual Queues are something completely different from G+.

Yes, G+ and FP+ actually do affect park capacity. Those FP/LL queues hold people. If G+ has lower adoption rate than FP+ (which it certainly does) those physical queues aren't holding as many people at many times where not as many people use it. FP+ also helped to guide people towards lower traffic attractions with Tiers and when FPs were unavailable to the major attractions, filling in more physical space on those queues. There is physical space that isn't being used as efficiently as more people are outside of those queues, causing crowding in other areas such as paths and regular lines spilling out. Not to mention guest satisfaction as most people hate G+, especially casual guests who find it ridiculously confusing because it is. Thus FP+ actually may have been more profitable at a free/included price point.

You're thinking too much of operating efficiency of attractions and not actual capacity of a theme park which has a direct effect on APs being brought back. Going further into this topic than just how current lack of capacity is preventing APs from being offered is not relevant to this thread though. Once capacity is available, through whatever means they get there, APs will return.
 
I see. I would not call this a change in capacity. Rather, I would call it an (artificial) increase in demand. So we are using different words for the same thing, or rather the same word for different things.

But I don't think that G+/ILL is materially different from FP+ in this way.
 
I see. I would not call this a change in capacity. Rather, I would call it an (artificial) increase in demand. So we are using different words for the same thing, or rather the same word for different things.

But I don't think that G+/ILL is materially different from FP+ in this way.
You are clearly not understanding and that is okay. Regardless, until there is capacity APs will not return.
 
What loss of income from APs? They make MORE with LESS aps in the wild. Forces people who might get an ap to just buy tickets at a higher revenue per day number.

Maybe they go less days then, Disney still don't care, there are still enough people to fill the parks without ap holders clogging up the parks with their less desirable revenue per day. :)

Whatever number they want to limit passes to at WDW is still close enough to being hit that they haven't offered for sale again. Will need more people to non renew their APs OR have a drop in non ap demand for a long enough period for them to raise the cap on total APs that are allowed to be sold. Id assume at this point there's quite a few folks with APs that are renewing, even if they might not be using them to the fullest since now the precedent is set that once you get let go of the ap, who knows when you can get it back. So that is probably slowing the attrition rate pretty well.

I think late April comes and goes and no APs will be sold, not until there is a long and sustained enough drop in non ap attendance will they then need that AP revenue again. I think it very well could be next year still before they go on sale again.
Yes... we'll probably have to wait until very late next year to hear something about it...
Until then, I'll keep looking for rumors and speculations here
 
I'm out of state and do not own DVC. I have an AP, which I renewed during the pandemic. I thought of dropping it--or getting some kind of refund, which was offered at one point--but I kept hoping maybe everything would change and I'd be able to go in a few weeks . . . which turned out to be 17 months.

I didn't realize I was basically bribing them so I could keep my AP but I'm glad that I did.

I've stayed at WDW several times since May 2021 onsite with an AP discount. If Disney really didn't want APs, they wouldn't be offering discounts. And I regularly get push notices on my phone app about this or that AP special, extra, discount, etc.

Also, they've let me renew twice now--and, let's face it, if they wanted to get rid of APs they could do it in a year, just by eliminating the ability to renew one's pass, which, btw, renews at a 15% discount. This discount is the reason they published new AP prices even though new APs aren't on sale at the moment.

I think APs will go back on sale at some point. And despite my semi-psychic abilities, I don't know when that will be. But for everyone who wants one, stay vigilant and be prepared to pounce.
 
I've been waiting for an AP since I purchased my DVC resale. Maybe with the new income from Genie+, they are making up for the loss of income from selling more APs. I also think Disney need to feel threatened to do something, so maybe APs are returning only close to 2025 with Super Nintendo World Orlando / Epic Universe. I love Disney with all my heart, but when people ask me about going to Disney for the first time and I think about Genie+, lightning lanes, individual lightning lanes, extra evening hours only for deluxe resorts, no Magical Express... I know my eyes don't shine as they used to. It's like crossing a dark period... hope it's over soon and it feels more like vacation again.
I had a friend asking questions about a first trip last year... and while I sent him about 5 million articles on various things, it also came with a lot of "Are you SURE? Like REALLY sure? This year?"
 
G+ sold out today at MK and was $29. Barnstormer is currently 50 minutes. Maybe APs aren't coming back? Maybe there just isn't enough WDW to go around for all those families from Denver.
 
Because of two other discussions, AP Proof for Discounts I checked my MDE and was looking at our APs. I saw something fishy which has now disappeared.

DS#2's AP expires May 30, 2023. No where close to renewal time. It had changed from what it looked like before (like ours that expire next November). It now had a new button and it was giving him the ability to upgrade his AP from Pixie Pass. I don't remember this being there last week when I looked because we were discussing if he wanted to renew.

I searched on here and it sounds like to me (and I may be wrong) that unless you are in your renewal window you are not allowed to upgrade online, you must do in person. Could I have caught an IT test run for changes to APs? My prediction was always they wouldn't open up until we are past the Tron AP Previews ... ???

I don't agree with all those who think APs are a bad thing for Disney. APs are the baseline of income they can depend on. The guests who mentally have plenty of cash to spend in the parks since they haven't just spent tons on tickets. The guests who keep them flush during recessions. With Disney now offering multiple room discounts, dining offers, more advertising back on the tv .... I think they are beginning to feel the effect of less revenge travel and more global locations back open for business. APs on the other hand are committed.

I am AP, have been most of 15 years (took off with COVID) but when someone asks me about going I tell them don't. I tell them the parks are packed like pre-COVID but they haven't hired back enough CMs. I tell them all lines, attractions and food, can be unacceptable. I tell them unless they go regularly they need to buy Genie+ or accept there will be top rides they won't get on unless they plan a least a week trip. I tell them they'll need battery packs because they'll drain their phones for having their noses in them all day. Until Disney is more committed to operating the parks efficiently without putting most the stress on the guests then I suggest they wait.

AND NO CONVERSATION can ignore that Epic Universe and all that comes with it will make an impact on Disney, especially APs. Keeping Pixie is critical to keeping locals AP holders at both parks. Eliminating APs or not reopening them indefinitely will push people elsewhere.
 
G+ sold out today at MK and was $29. Barnstormer is currently 50 minutes. Maybe APs aren't coming back? Maybe there just isn't enough WDW to go around for all those families from Denver.
That was yesterday that it sold out for 29, its 22 today and still for sell, just checked in MDE.
 
I'm out of state and do not own DVC. I have an AP, which I renewed during the pandemic. I thought of dropping it--or getting some kind of refund, which was offered at one point--but I kept hoping maybe everything would change and I'd be able to go in a few weeks . . . which turned out to be 17 months.

I didn't realize I was basically bribing them so I could keep my AP but I'm glad that I did.

I've stayed at WDW several times since May 2021 onsite with an AP discount. If Disney really didn't want APs, they wouldn't be offering discounts. And I regularly get push notices on my phone app about this or that AP special, extra, discount, etc.

Also, they've let me renew twice now--and, let's face it, if they wanted to get rid of APs they could do it in a year, just by eliminating the ability to renew one's pass, which, btw, renews at a 15% discount. This discount is the reason they published new AP prices even though new APs aren't on sale at the moment.

I think APs will go back on sale at some point. And despite my semi-psychic abilities, I don't know when that will be. But for everyone who wants one, stay vigilant and be prepared to pounce.
They do want AP holders and will always want them. The difference is now they have a number of AP holders they want. Til attendance numbers drop off or enough people don't re-new their passes they will stay locked in the vault.
 
They do want AP holders and will always want them. The difference is now they have a number of AP holders they want. Til attendance numbers drop off or enough people don't re-new their passes they will stay locked in the vault.
Oh man that should be the marketing for AP sales if/when they resume.

Hurry fast before APs are locked back in the vault!

Play up the FOMO real good.

The-Walt-Disney-Vault-disney-43455641-274-184.jpg
 












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