WDW Annual Pass Timing Speculation

[focusondisney]

People are going to gravitate towards Universal if Disney continues to not sell APs.
It's as simple as that.

Not necessarily. Not everyone likes UO. We’ve been to UO exactly twice in the 30 years we’ve been going to WDW. UO is mostly coasters or simulator type rides, neither of which we like. At WDW there are so many more attractions we can do. We’ve had APs at WDW a few different times over the years, including for the past 10 years. If we didn’t have WDW APs, we still would not go to UO. We’d go to WDW but once a year instead of 3 - 4 times a year.

 

[Miffy]

Not necessarily. Not everyone likes UO. We’ve been to UO exactly twice in the 30 years we’ve been going to WDW. UO is mostly coasters or simulator type rides, neither of which we like. At WDW there are so many more attractions we can do. We’ve had APs at WDW a few different times over the years, including for the past 10 years. If we didn’t have WDW APs, we still would not go to UO. We’d go to WDW but once a year instead of 3 - 4 times a year.

I've never been to UO but I have little desire to do so for the reasons stated above. I'd like to see the place once, but for the $ it costs, I've never done it. Also, I never want to interrupt my time at WDW with something else! And I agree with @focusondisney's comments.

 

[CoachBeard]

I have universal Hollywood an hour closer than Disneyland and it’s just okay. The backlot tour is fun but once every 5 years. It doesn’t change too often. Plus, my company has done holiday parties at universal studios, so I’ve had my fill.

I’d like to spend a day or two at UO and might try to plan that for my next WDW trip but I have no desire to make it a replacement. I’ve never been there but I already know I won’t want to visit more than every several years.

 

[Pooh's World]

I've never been to UO but I have little desire to do so for the reasons stated above. I'd like to see the place once, but for the $ it costs, I've never done it. Also, I never want to interrupt my time at WDW with something else! And I agree with @focusondisney's comments.

Your missing out.
Harry Potter land is awesome and Nintendo Land and Epic Universe is coming.

 

[Pooh's World]

I have universal Hollywood an hour closer than Disneyland and it’s just okay. The backlot tour is fun but once every 5 years. It doesn’t change too often. Plus, my company has done holiday parties at universal studios, so I’ve had my fill.

I’d like to spend a day or two at UO and might try to plan that for my next WDW trip but I have no desire to make it a replacement. I’ve never been there but I already know I won’t want to visit more than every several years.

It's not a replacement but ideally you do both.

Right now Disney isn't giving us the option by banning us from getting APs.

 

[Pooh's World]

But to be clear, if Disney brings theirs back, I would MUCH rather have a Disney AP. I just can't justify spending 2k a year on park tickets without having unlimited in/out privelages and park hopping privelages.

And this is the thing. Most APers have been to Disney 10-20-30-40-50 plus times.
When we go we really don't need or want to do all the rides in a park. We just want to do a couple favorite rides and maybe park hop, etc.

The value just isn't there to buy a regular one day park ticket because we've already done all the rides and attractions.

 

[Brian Noble]

Right now Disney isn't giving us the option by banning us from getting APs

You could go; the option is there. You’d just have to pay more for it. You are choosing not to.

 

[sheilafri]

I definitely agree if no APs, at least sell the 10 day no expire ticket. But we are also in the same boat, yes we have a trip planned for July and we’ve decided to not go to the parks, so not spending our money on park tickets. Doing an all Animal Kingdom Lodge stay and do other things besides the parks. If no AP soon, we might buckle and do Universal APs. We did HHN for the 1st time this past October while we stayed at Pop Century and did a MNSSHP instead of regular park tickets. They’re losing money from us. I’m tired of buying expiring 5 day tickets. Feels like a waste. Want our APs back.

I wonder if even a one year expiration ticket might be useful for DVC owners? Encourage people to make two or three trips a year. Maybe they would spend more at each visit as they’ve had time to save up? I think the two week limit is ridiculous. They could price it accordingly and I’m sure people would buy it.

 

[Miffy]

Your missing out.
Harry Potter land is awesome and Nintendo Land and Epic Universe is coming.

I'd like to see the Harry Potter area even though I'm not a fan, but so far I've been unwilling to give up the cash + a day at WDW in order to do so. However, Nintendo and Epic are not interesting to me at all.

 

[Pooh's World]

You could go; the option is there. You’d just have to pay more for it. You are choosing not to.

Not worth it to pay $100 dollars for 3 rides in one Disney park.
Horrible value.

 

[kylenne]

Your missing out.
Harry Potter land is awesome and Nintendo Land and Epic Universe is coming.

I have never been a massive thrill ride person, RNRC and Everest are the upper limit of what I can handle which is why I go to Disney parks. But some people also have ethical concerns about WWoHP, myself included. I will never spend money at a Universal park as long as it's there and they are paying royalties to that specific rights holder, no matter what else they build there. And that's all I'll say without breaking the rules. I only bring it up at all to say that this is not a binary choice for everyone. Since my AP lapsed this year, if Disney continues to not offer APs to out of state guests, my alternative isn't Universal, it's going to Disney less and spending my vacation dollars somewhere besides theme parks. We are already starting to look at cruises and Europe for next year.

 

[ThisIsTheWay]

I'm calling it for April 18th based on today's announcement of loosening the park reservations. Still holding out hope that we will see something sooner. This is a race weekend- I think there's a slim, but possible chance we see some movement next week. With the exception of the tron preview, it seems like nearly all park reservations are still available and new restaurants and attractions are still opening all the time.

That would be amazing for me as 4/18 is the last day we are at WDW for our spring break trip! I had the same thought as well, but figured I was being too hopeful. Fingers crossed!

 

[Frankie K]

That would be amazing for me as 4/18 is the last day we are at WDW for our spring break trip! I had the same thought as well, but figured I was being too hopeful. Fingers crossed!

us too! But can we really benefit from it from it for the whole trip if it comes out on the last day? or does only our last remaining day roll into the new pass? Totally hypothetical situation here since they haven't announced anything!

 

[ThisIsTheWay]

us too! But can we really benefit from it from it for the whole trip if it comes out on the last day? or does only our last remaining day roll into the new pass? Totally hypothetical situation here since they haven't announced anything!

Yes, the way I understand it is as long as you upgrade before the end of the day on your last day, the entire price you paid for the tickets is applied to the cost of the AP. The AP start date would be the first day of your tickets though.

 

[Jrb1979]

I'm calling it for April 18th based on today's announcement of loosening the park reservations. Still holding out hope that we will see something sooner. This is a race weekend- I think there's a slim, but possible chance we see some movement next week. With the exception of the tron preview, it seems like nearly all park reservations are still available and new restaurants and attractions are still opening all the time.

I disagree. I'm still of the belief it has nothing to do with availability or loosening restrictions. They have a number of pass holders they want and enough let their passes lapse they won't go on sale.

 

[tidefan]

To me, I don't see the rationale behind not giving out Annual Passes due to park capacity. If I am running WDW (which I am not, btw), I want as many people in those parks as I can realistically handle. People in the parks, spend money, regardless of ticket media. Yes, some may spend more, but each additional person in the parks spending money that isn't there is lost revenue.

I suspect that a lot of this is driven by "game theory" pricing models. However, if you are familiar with mathematical modeling, those models are based on assumptions and quite honestly, are only as good as those assumptions. Predicting future outcomes based on past patterns of behavior only works if those patterns of behavior continue to be the same. Otherwise, your assumptions may change and your model may not perform as well as you had hoped.

From a personal perspective, we've spent less than 5 days in the parks since the reopening of the parks. In the days of our APs, we would go at least 3 times a year (it's about an 8-9 hour drive for us). Now, we mainly just go for Labor Day and MNSSHP. We've managed to use our DVC points elsewhere, mainly Aulani, but quite honestly, this will be our 3rd straight year going out there in a 2-Bedroom villa and while we love it, I'm not sure I need to go to Hawaii every year.

What we've found is that we are pursuing other vacation options. We used to always go to WDW for Spring Break, for instance, but last year (Carnival Mardi Gras) and this year (Virgin Voyages) we are moving on to other things. We've also got a nice British Isles cruise this summer on Princess upcoming. So, we are finding we are just fine not going to WDW and that, in fact, it was the combination of our DVC points and APs that kept us going multiple times. So, we just don't do that anymore. Again, I'm sure that family from wherever is taking my place, but I don't think that our story is all that uncommon. Give it a few years, and those assumptions that all these modelers have made may just not be the same...

 

[Brian Noble]

If I am running WDW (which I am not, btw), I want as many people in those parks as I can realistically handle.

The person who is running the company said this:

At domestic parks and experiences, significant revenue and operating income growth in the quarter was achieved despite purposefully reducing capacity during select peak holiday periods by approximately 20% versus pre-pandemic levels in order to prioritize the guest experience.

I mean, you could be right, and Bob 1.0/3.0 could be wrong. He has been doing this for a little over 15 years though.

 

[tidefan]

The person who is running the company said this:


I mean, you could be right, and Bob 1.0/3.0 could be wrong. He has been doing this for a little over 15 years though.

Oh, I know what he said. Doesn't mean I always agree with it. It's like saying if I work for an insurance company I want to sell less policies so that we can "do a better job and our current customers like us more".

Why would you want people spending money in your parks... Let them go spend it elsewhere. And the point isn't about "peak holiday periods". AP holders are usually blocked out then anyway. This is about that Monday in August when you have to maybe close certain eateries in the park because there's not enough crowd demand.

My point was that sometimes when you try to analyze everything to the nth degree, you can't see the forest through the trees. I think that was/is occurring, not only at WDW, but with many companies. They've been sold on the value of model building, but those models are only as good as their assumptions.

 

[Brian Noble]

What you are saying, in essence, is that Disney's strategic planning folks are incompetent. And, you might be right. But they have a fair bit of experience in pricing and operating theme parks, a pile of data about what happens as they make each change, and a vested interest in getting it right. If I'm handicapping the field, I put pretty good odds on "They know what they are doing."

 

[Jrb1979]

What you are saying, in essence, is that Disney's strategic planning folks are incompetent. And, you might be right. But they have a fair bit of experience in pricing and operating theme parks, a pile of data about what happens as they make each change, and a vested interest in getting it right. If I'm handicapping the field, I put pretty good odds on "They know what they are doing."

At one time I would agree with you but the way they have changed since Covid I have lost a lot of faith in them.