I think this may be the long term test for Disney on passes and overall value. While we are not DVC, I used to always tell/recruit other friends to go to Disney due to the overall value and ease of vacation (luggage service, magical express, etc., etc.). Several of those families are now repeat visitors, but just last weekend I actively told another family considering a trip that I can no longer recommend Disney like I used to. Clearly Disney knows what they are doing and park attendance/pricing today is still strong for them, but it remains to be seen if they are setting the stage for future generations to keep going. Maybe they only need 1 time visitors at the highest price per guest?
Our family of 5 has been once or twice annual visitors for 13+ years and just snagged annual passes last year in that brief window they were for sale. We just renewed as well. We ended up making many more trips last year than usual and plan the same for the upcoming year. Are we an unfavorable mix? I'm not sure, but maybe Some of our trips we stayed on property and some with relatives in the area. We do dine and buy a lot of merchandise each trip. We just got back from a 5 day trip. We stayed with relatives and I just looked - we spent somewhere between $1500-$2000 on dining and merchandise. Disney probably would have rather filled our spots with guests staying on property, paying for single day tickets, and still buying dining and merchandise.