Walking at VGF is getting ridiculous

[Airb330]

I'm wondering what's the point of owning there for the 11 month window when clearly people are walking stuff so much during peak times. I've been watching early December and whatever date opens is sold out instantly. Even at 8:00 online. People have no chance calling if I see issues booking online.

 

[disneynutz]

IMO there is a software issue and I would call MS to verify the inventory.

Bill

 

[tjkraz]

I'm wondering what's the point of owning there for the 11 month window when clearly people are walking stuff so much during peak times. I've been watching early December and whatever date opens is sold out instantly. Even at 8:00 online. People have no chance calling if I see issues booking online.

If you're seeing availability at 7:55am, and then it's gone by 8:00am, that is not an indication of reservations being "walked." If walking were to blame, you'd never see the room available in the first place.

Fact is that demand is far higher than supply for most early-December dates. Particularly something like VGF studio which is both really high demand and really low supply. Those rooms are disappearing at 8am because other owners were quicker on their keyboards.

That's not to say that walking isn't playing some role...but "walkers" are not the parties taking those rooms right at 8am.

If there is some walking occurring, it's important to get on the waitlist because your dates may be among those that are eventually unneeded (cancelled.)

No matter the administrative procedures in place, nothing is going to overcome the fact that there aren't enough rooms to satisfy demand during many periods. There are 2.5 million points at the Grand Floridian and it would require less than 13,000 of those points to book all 47 VGF studios from Dec 1-14; less than one-half of one percent of all VGF owners. I suspect demand is quite a bit higher than that.

 

[T00dles]

No matter the administrative procedures in place, nothing is going to overcome the fact that there aren't enough rooms to satisfy demand during many periods. There are 2.5 million points at the Grand Floridian and it would require less than 13,000 of those points to book all 47 VGF studios from Dec 1-14; less than one-half of one percent of all VGF owners. I suspect demand is quite a bit higher than that.

Did you factor in the fixed week purchases?

 

[tjkraz]

Did you factor in the fixed week purchases?

No, and that's another good point. Although it's impossible to quantify because even if we consider how many fixed week contracts exist for a given period, owners can opt out of their fixed week.

 

[Airb330]

Yeah walking and the fixed points are definitely in olay. Good point about the fixed weeks. I recall early December selling out fast for fixed weeks.

No I'm not seeing availability at 7:55 either. It's just not there. I mean that's fine but I just do not see the point in owning somewhere where it's difficult to use the points.

Bill, I did call MS and December 8th is gone. A Thursday? So I know I have no chance of getting the weekend then because I cannot book 9th onwards. In fact the 9th is almost sold out already. I just feel those with large contracts are booking 7-10 days then dropping days as they please.

I've never had issues getting VGF until this year. We've went every December so far with no reservation drama. I've watched early December for a week and every day is sold out before it opens. Who wants to bet 12/9 Friday is sold out before 8am tomorrow?! I really don't mind paying the DVC game but I really don't enjoy VGF that much more than AKL lol-might be selling and buying more AKL!

 

[keaster]

I'm thinking part of the problem is so many people bought just enough points to book at studio, and there are only 47 studios. Demand will always be higher than the supply.

 

[tjkraz]

Bill, I did call MS and December 8th is gone. A Thursday? So I know I have no chance of getting the weekend then because I cannot book 9th onwards. In fact the 9th is almost sold out already. I just feel those with large contracts are booking 7-10 days then dropping days as they please.

Or people are booking weekend arrival on Dec 3/4 and staying for a full week.

Thursdays tend to be among the more difficult nights to book because it intersects two common member booking patterns. Some people arrive the weekend preceding and stay until Friday/Sat/Sun. Others try to start a long weekend by arriving on Thursday night.

 

[wdrl]

Here is a breakout of the number of Guaranteed Week deeds sold for studios at the Villas at Grand Floridian:

Week #49 (12/04/2016) = 4 Standard View; 4 Lake View
Week #50 (12/11/2016) = 4 Standard View; 4 Lake View
Week #51 (12/18/2016) = 4 Standard View; 4 Lake View
Week #52 (12/25/2016) = 3 Standard View; 4 Lake View

There are 30 Standard View Studios and 17 Lake View Studios at VGF. The master declaration at VGF permits DVD to sell as much as 35% of each accommodation type as Guaranteed Week deeds. Thus, DVD could have sold as many as 10 Standard View Studio Guaranteed Week deeds and 5 Lake View Studio Guaranteed Week deeds for each week.

There are pros and cons with flexible points-based timeshares. One of the drawbacks is that a points-based system cannot accommodate all the members if they all want the same time period. The Guaranteed Week option is exacerbating the situation at VGF because it essentially reduces the number of studios from 30 Standard View and 17 Lake View to as little as 26 Standard View and 13 Lake View.

As tjkraz posted, perhaps some of these Guaranteed Week owners will opt out of their GW and convert their points to traditional points. However, GW owners have a very long window to decide whether they want to use their GW. DVC automatically books and reserves their GW for them before the 11-month window opens. But a GW owner could wait until months later before they inform DVC that they wish to opt out. Until the GW owner notifies DVC of their desire to opt out, their accommodation cannot be made available to traditional point users.

If demand is so very high at VGF for the weeks in December, should DVC consider a point reallocation at the resort? Instead of having the first two weeks of December included in the cheap Adventure Season, perhaps those weeks should be reclassified as part of the Magic or Premium Seasons? Would this help alleviate some of the demand for that period?

 

[disneynutz]

Yeah walking and the fixed points are definitely in olay. Good point about the fixed weeks. I recall early December selling out fast for fixed weeks.

No I'm not seeing availability at 7:55 either. It's just not there. I mean that's fine but I just do not see the point in owning somewhere where it's difficult to use the points.

Bill, I did call MS and December 8th is gone. A Thursday? So I know I have no chance of getting the weekend then because I cannot book 9th onwards. In fact the 9th is almost sold out already. I just feel those with large contracts are booking 7-10 days then dropping days as they please.

I've never had issues getting VGF until this year. We've went every December so far with no reservation drama. I've watched early December for a week and every day is sold out before it opens. Who wants to bet 12/9 Friday is sold out before 8am tomorrow?! I really don't mind paying the DVC game but I really don't enjoy VGF that much more than AKL lol-might be selling and buying more AKL!

I wonder if increased renting has caused a shift in demand?

Bill

 

[tjkraz]

If demand is so very high at VGF for the weeks in December, should DVC consider a point reallocation at the resort? Instead of having the first two weeks of December included in the cheap Adventure Season, perhaps those weeks should be reclassified as part of the Magic or Premium Seasons? Would this help alleviate some of the demand for that period?

That's probably a topic for another thread but early-December has seemingly been under-priced for a decade now. It's inarguably the most in-demand period of the year. While moving into Premier season is overkill because demand would instantly plummet, there's really no reason not to move it up one or two seasons on the chart.

Compare Dec 1-14 to the months of January and September which are also Adventure season. Sure there are a few select dates in those months when demand will spike (WDW marathon, MLK weekend, Food & Wine Fest start), but the majority of those months have demand which isn't remotely comparable to early December.

 

[T00dles]

DH brought up a good point. Tradionally all the wdw resorts have the same seasons. It would be a big shift to change the adventure season at just one resort. I guess then they would want to change things up at BWV for f&w. Ugh talk about a headache.

 

[Rigby]

Is it just the studios that are all booked at the 11 month window? We're VGF owners and haven't had any problems getting studios for our stays during the month of May but I'd be pretty bummed if I couldn't get a room when I want it at 11 months out. Are booking 1 and 2 bedrooms not a problem that time of year?

 

[tjkraz]

DH brought up a good point. Tradionally all the wdw resorts have the same seasons. It would be a big shift to change the adventure season at just one resort. I guess then they would want to change things up at BWV for f&w. Ugh talk about a headache.

Dec 1-14 deserves to be changed for all resorts.

While not all resorts/rooms/views book up immediately at 11 months, the trend has shown much higher demand for that period than is deserved by dates placed in the lowest-cost season.

Even if those dates were moved up a season or two, demand would still be quite high given the holiday festivities & decor, moderate weather and relatively low crowds.

 

[drusba]

Many think first two weeks of Dec should change seasons; likely many more hope it never changes. There are certain low supply rooms that have issues at 11 months out during that time and VGF studios are among those. I am not in the camp that any changes should be made because of VGF, particularly since the problem at VGF was created by Disney and not by any change in usual guest demand patterns -- Disney had to know full well with the price per point and points per night for which it sold VGF that most of the points, including most of the points for the 1BRs, 2BRs and GV's, were going to be sold to buyers who could afford only enough points to get a studio, and to have only 47 studios in that situation was adding insult to injury. In essence, it purposefully set up that resort to oversell the studios, but do it legally. And if anyone believes Disney was acting innocently, be aware that we "dumb" existing DVC members were discussing on these boards, immediatly after we learned of the number of studios and prices per point and per night, that it was obvious there would be an oversell of points to studio purchasers and resulting problems getting studios at 11 months out at high demand times.

As to changing first two weeks of Dec to premier or magic season, one of the problems Disney would have is that it cannot do it. Its ability to change the points applicable to a room for any given night is limited to a 20% change (up or down) per year. It would take more than a 20% change to even move those Dec dates to dream season, much less magic or premier. Thus, to make any real change, Disney would have to go through some complex partial changes made over multiple years.

 

[disneynutz]

I still don't see the need to increase point requirements for high demand periods, when the resort is booked, it's booked.

Bill

 

[Airb330]

I still don't see the need to increase point requirements for high demand periods, when the resort is booked, it's booked.

Bill

Normally I agree with you. But not here because it's clearly people "playing the game." IMO anyways. Maybe if the points were higher they wouldn't be doing it. Nothing should be sold out before one can actually book it.


Again, what's the point of owning there then? We might as well own ssr and do it at 7 months if people are walking and many have fixed points. We bought for May October and December and like the one poster said, we've never had problems.

 

[Airb330]

PS thanks for everyone's opinion and thought. Clearly I was frustrated earlier and I still am. If we have to sell, then so be it, but it stinks when you are at your 11 month window and shut out at 8:00. I just didn't expect that at any point and that's why we bought direct at GFV

 

[Sammie]

Do any of you think that this situation led to the only studios and bungalows at the Polynesian? I have wondered for a long time why the December weeks were in the lowest season. I feel it is more desirable than those last weeks of August which are in Dream Season.

 

[cbnsoul]

I have seriously considered selling our VGF points for the very reason the Airb330 mentioned. What good does it do me to have points at a resort I can't book (when I want it)? I tried to get bothe October and December in a studio last year. I didn't walk but was on at 8am each day only to see the rooms slip away. Luckily other were walking so I was able to get the rooms each on a wait list. Thankfully, I've found it easy to use the VGF points in the summer, another time we frequent. Though I'd prefer to use them in December, if I'm not able to, I guess I'll use them then instead. I seriously considered purchasing a guaranteed week but Disney shut down the waitlist with no warning, killing that idea. Guaranteed weeks aren't ideal for us anyway as we would prefer to come on a Saturday rather than a Sunday and often have shorter stays or split-stays.