Walking at VGF is getting ridiculous

[johde]

The big question in all of this is, are dates popular because their popular or are dates popular because their cheap. It is interesting to compares the WDW calendar to the DL calendar. DL has 5 season's compared to WDW's 4 seasons. Adventure Season only contains September (after Labor Day), and Mid January/Feb. Choice Season late spring/Early Summer (Late April/May/ and most of June). and Oct - Just Before Christmas (Minus Thanksgiving). Magic is Spring Break (Minus Easter) and Summer. Finally, Premier season includes Easter, Thanksgiving, and 2 weeks around Christmas/New Years.

It sounds like many of you would like a similar "flattened" structure for WDW. An Adventure Season that is the true "slow times". A Premier Season for the Holidays. A Magic Season covering Summer/ Spring Break. Then everything else Choice season.

 

[Paula Sedley-Burke]

I saw a lot of folks selling vacations of 'fixed week' at VGF last year close to December at the most incredible prices. Am wondering if people are booking it to rent it out for bug bucks come December 2016. I hope not. That would be awful for us owners at VGF wanting to book the studios.

 

[disneynutz]

The big question in all of this is, are dates popular because their popular or are dates popular because their cheap. It is interesting to compares the WDW calendar to the DL calendar. DL has 5 season's compared to WDW's 4 seasons. Adventure Season only contains September (after Labor Day), and Mid January/Feb. Choice Season late spring/Early Summer (Late April/May/ and most of June). and Oct - Just Before Christmas (Minus Thanksgiving). Magic is Spring Break (Minus Easter) and Summer. Finally, Premier season includes Easter, Thanksgiving, and 2 weeks around Christmas/New Years.

It sounds like many of you would like a similar "flattened" structure for WDW. An Adventure Season that is the true "slow times". A Premier Season for the Holidays. A Magic Season covering Summer/ Spring Break. Then everything else Choice season.

Wouldn't it be easier if there were zero seasons? Disney has about 10 different price "seasons" to make more money during the more popular dates, DVC doesn't need that. DVC IMO should be first come first served. Sure would make things easier.

Bill

 

[johde]

Wouldn't it be easier if there were zero seasons? Disney has about 10 different price "seasons" to make more money during the more popular dates, DVC doesn't need that. DVC IMO should be first come first served. Sure would make things easier.

Bill

But would easier be better. The goal of seasons should be to balance out demand throughout the year. It should encourage people to travel during low demand times. Let's look at the most extreme example HHI. A weekend studio Summer at HHI is 27 points, in January a weekday 6 points. If the point chart was completely flat, what do you think would happen to bookings? Summer weekends would fill up in milliseconds and you'd have an empty resort most of the winter. With 95+% of the resort sold to members you would have a huge number of people angry.
In general, people bought that resort to book in the spring/summer and the bulk of the point need to be there.

You could claim WDW and DL are different from that. They are now busy year round. But, is that a reason to get rid of season or is it because of seasons. Yes I know Disney is also putting special events into the calendar like F&W, F&G, Run Disney etc to also even out the year.

 

[disneynutz]

But would easier be better. The goal of seasons should be to balance out demand throughout the year. It should encourage people to travel during low demand times. Let's look at the most extreme example HHI. A weekend studio Summer at HHI is 27 points, in January a weekday 6 points. If the point chart was completely flat, what do you think would happen to bookings? Summer weekends would fill up in milliseconds and you'd have an empty resort most of the winter. With 95+% of the resort sold to members you would have a huge number of people angry.
In general, people bought that resort to book in the spring/summer and the bulk of the point need to be there.

You could claim WDW and DL are different from that. They are now busy year round. But, is that a reason to get rid of season or is it because of seasons. Yes I know Disney is also putting special events into the calendar like F&W, F&G, Run Disney etc to also even out the year.

The resort would only be empty if people let their points expire and they didn't vacation. I don't see that happening. The busy DVC periods are still busy no matter what points are required, Christmas is booked solid. DVC is different from cash bookings, with cash Disney lowers the price during slow periods and sticks it to you during busy ones with DVC members have to use their points.

Bill

 

[tjkraz]

The resort would only be empty if people let their points expire and they didn't vacation. I don't see that happening.

Note that johde used Hilton Head as an example, a very good choice in this situation. If DVC currently feels that 6 points per night is appropriate for off-season, there simply are not guests willing to pay an equilibrium figure of 15 points per night.

The logical outcome is that millions of points--particularly at resorts like HHI, Vero and Aulani--will be used for theme park destinations, leaving those resorts sitting near empty.

The busy DVC periods are still busy no matter what points are required, Christmas is booked solid.

And demand would be even higher if cost was reduced for peak periods. Meanwhile demand for the slower periods would all but disappear...even at Walt Disney World proper. Prospective buyers and even current members would quickly discover that:

1) The odds of getting any high-demand dates are very slim with dramatically increased competition. And it's not just competition from owners, but also from renters looking to maximize their return by flipping some of the most popular (and expensive) cash dates of all.

2) There is little reason to own DVC if you choose to visit during the slower periods. If they're charging the same rate for a Tuesday in September as for New Year's Eve, forget DVC for slow periods and just ride the discounts.

The idea behind cheaper seasons is that owners are rewarded (with lower costs) for visiting during periods when demand is low. People don't say "oh, well, I didn't get Easter week this year so I guess I'll spend the same number of points for mid-September." It doesn't work that way. The response to this scenario to sell...or in the case of a prospect, never buy in the first place after reading the booking horror stories.

Can you really not appreciate the devastating impact that this would have on the entire program--both Disney and DVC owners alike?

 

[tjkraz]

I saw a lot of folks selling vacations of 'fixed week' at VGF last year close to December at the most incredible prices. Am wondering if people are booking it to rent it out for bug bucks come December 2016. I hope not. That would be awful for us owners at VGF wanting to book the studios.

If they truly own a fixed week, there really isn't anything you can do about it. (And even if it wasn't a fixed week, rather just a reservation the owner managed to secure at 11 months, it's theirs to do with as they please.)

First come, first served is always going to play a role. (And fixed week owners purchased the right to be the first served.) The purpose of the variable point charts is to reduce demand for some dates via high prices and increase demand for others via low prices. It's as much about managing expectations (and owner satisfaction) as it is about divvying up the supply of villas.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

If they truly own a fixed week, there really isn't anything you can do about it. (And even if it wasn't a fixed week, rather just a reservation the owner managed to secure at 11 months, it's theirs to do with as they please.)

First come, first served is always going to play a role. (And fixed week owners purchased the right to be the first served.) The purpose of the variable point charts is to reduce demand for some dates via high prices and increase demand for others via low prices. It's as much about managing expectations (and owner satisfaction) as it is about divvying up the supply of villas.

I wonder what would have happened if DVC had taken the fixed week option as a time to "correct" points charts for at least a few rooms. So, for the first weeks of Dec, instead of pricing them at a 10% premium over current point requirements and having those being the most quickly sold weeks, what if they had priced them for something like Dream season? It would have been interesting if people still would have gone for that.

 

[Dean]

I'm wondering what's the point of owning there for the 11 month window when clearly people are walking stuff so much during peak times. I've been watching early December and whatever date opens is sold out instantly. Even at 8:00 online. People have no chance calling if I see issues booking online.

I personally think it's bad for the system, costly and inherently wrong. But I also feel EVERY change should be a cancelation and rebooking though I think 14 days at a time instead of 7 is reasonable.

I still don't see the need to increase point requirements for high demand periods, when the resort is booked, it's booked.

Bill

Bill, as I see it DVCMC has a duty to even out demand where possible. They do need to be solid on the information and not make snap changes with limited info but one they have the info I feel they should make changes. My personal belief is that they should eliminate Adventure and possibly more for WDW. 3 or 4 seasons is likely a far better balance than the current. Likely HH is the only one where adventure is truly appropriate.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Dec 1-14 deserves to be changed for all resorts.

While not all resorts/rooms/views book up immediately at 11 months, the trend has shown much higher demand for that period than is deserved by dates placed in the lowest-cost season.

Even if those dates were moved up a season or two, demand would still be quite high given the holiday festivities & decor, moderate weather and relatively low crowds.

Would this really change the demand? I think people will pay more ( use more points) regardless. I just don't see how this will affect the situation?

 

[wdrl]

Would this really change the demand? I think people will pay more ( use more points) regardless. I just don't see how this will affect the situation?

It might change demand patterns. When DVC reallocated points in 2009 and 2010, which lowered the weekends and raised the weekdays, demand for weekend dates increased. When DVC raised the point cost in 2013 for the SSR Treehouse villas, demand for the THV declined. In 2016, Aulani's point chart was changed, moving half of the summer months into the more expensive Premier Season and the days between Thanksgiving and Christmas into the less expensive Adventure Season. Its too early to know if Aulani's change will impact demand at the resort, but it could likely happen.

Some people will pay whatever it costs to get what they want and to travel to WDW when they want. Others will seek out the cheapest option, regardless where that puts them or when they travel to WDW.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Week #49 (12/04/2016) = 4 Standard View; 4 Lake View

I am one of those four

 

[DougEMG]

Some people will pay whatever it costs to get what they want and to travel to WDW when they want. Others will seek out the cheapest option, regardless where that puts them or when they travel to WDW.

I prefer to travel at those cheaper point cost times. Higher point cost for higher demand times just seems to make more sense. It matches how Disney prices hotels and hotel discounts and isn't Disney looking at park tickets being priced higher at certain times of the year.

 

[johde]

I also like traveling during the cheaper point cost times when I can. When I was teaching on quarters that was September and Early December. Now that we're on semesters, the cheap times are more mid December and Early January. But, I've seen over the past several years how Early/Mid December has stopped being the low season it once was.

I probably didn't need to, but I made an 11 month reservation for a Studio at OKW near HH for Dec. 11-16. I'm hoping to change it at 7 months to something preferably at the Grand Californian Villas. I know I'm probably going to need to check daily to try and grab a reservation there for a studio. I would do early January but Premier Season lasts until January 7th 2017.

 

[Mrs.Milo]

We are in the group that goes in December because of the low points when we can, as we mostly go now for Food & Wine.

Originally bought in 1993 at OKW. Both of us specifically remember our guide telling us that Disney was restricted on the way that they could change points, that they could change points within a week, which they did a few years ago. It used to be that the point cost for 5 week days was the same as 2 weekend days. But that Disney couldn't change the overall points required for the week, such as 76 points for BWV standard view in Adventure Season. Anyone else remember hearing that?

 

[ivanp91]

I have seriously considered selling our VGF points for the very reason the Airb330 mentioned. What good does it do me to have points at a resort I can't book (when I want it)? I tried to get bothe October and December in a studio last year.

This. I tried for 5 days in November last year (so directly between the two months you tried) and there was absolutely nothing available. Ended up doing 2 nights at BLT and 3 at Kidani. This year I'm staying at almost the exact same time, and was tossing up between BWV, WL or a split stay at both because I thought there was no chance of getting the 7 nights I wanted in a VGF studio... Amazingly I managed to get it. The other resorts will have to wait because there's no way I'm cancelling now!

 

[Wedgeh]

For me there's two changes which need to be made to the points charts, firstly a rebalancing of seasons and secondly (at least for some resorts) a compression of the points chart such that the gap between studios & 1 bedrooms is considerably smaller.

 

[DebbieB]

We are in the group that goes in December because of the low points when we can, as we mostly go now for Food & Wine.

Originally bought in 1993 at OKW. Both of us specifically remember our guide telling us that Disney was restricted on the way that they could change points, that they could change points within a week, which they did a few years ago. It used to be that the point cost for 5 week days was the same as 2 weekend days. But that Disney couldn't change the overall points required for the week, such as 76 points for BWV standard view in Adventure Season. Anyone else remember hearing that?

That's not true. When they did the reallocations about 5 years ago, they definitely changed weekly totals. They also moved points between room sizes. For example, some grand villas went down, studios went up. The total for all rooms for the entire year has to match but the distribution can change.

 

[Caren]

I think this is a big part. We own at VGF, but because we have 4 (soon to be 5) kids, a 2-bedroom is the only option for us. I have booked for two years now without any issue at all. I was well within the 11-month window, but before the 7-month window hit. We have had lots of options between views and have a lock-off or not during that time with a 2-bedroom.

Two-bedroom units seem to be very available, I'm guessing because of their high point cost. I just booked a two-bedroom for early August with 551 of my OKW points and availability was wide open.

 

[beer dave]

Two-bedroom units seem to be very available, I'm guessing because of their high point cost. I just booked a two-bedroom for early August with 551 of my OKW points and availability was wide open.

Are you just trying to make everyone else jealous?