VGF resale pricing

[RoseGold]

You mean hard as in like $180pp or $255pp?

I mean hard like $275 to give room for the discounts. I think that’s what April 2021 resales in the 180s supports. It was time to raise the 255 anyway.

 

[mustinjourney]

Isn't the current minimum for new members 125 points? If this is held for VGF 2.0 then that makes a first time buyer have to plunk down over $32,000.00 at $255/point. How many people are going to just do that on a whim during a vacation???? Even at $200/point that over $25,0000.00 which isn't anything to sneeze at either, especially if you just spent $5000.00 to $10,000.00 on your Disney vacation.

If you ever go to their one on one presentations -- they make zero mention of your initial costs. They break it down like a car payment and just focus on your monthly payment. And this is even if you tell them you will, under no conditions, take out a loan. I went with my dad, and he was adamant about no loans and paying up front...I had to ask several times for the guide to put the numbers only in the final number as opposed to the monthly payment.

That's how they get you.

 

[mustinjourney]

If Disney wants to come up with creative direct buy incentives.... how about early booking window for Signature restaurants attached to the resort?

A VGF direct buy could mean an early booking window for say.... Victoria & Alberts. (Or whatever goes in that space if V&A doesn't come back.)

I'm in agreement with the thought processes that resale will dip with the inclusion of the studios. I also appreciate the argument that it might recover over time. The prices we're seeing now seem to be way over what is sustainable when a whole new inventory of studios comes into frame.

a two or three week early reservation window would certainly be an enticing benefit for a lot of DVC members that aren't as interested in park thrills....and it cost Disney absolutely nothing (other than someone adding in additional coding to MDX).

 

[Matty B13]

If you ever go to their one on one presentations -- they make zero mention of your initial costs. They break it down like a car payment and just focus on your monthly payment.

But a monthly payment of over $600/month (30k over 5 years) might be way to much for people. Close to $400/month for a 10 year loan at 10%.

I know people who can't afford this will end up buying anyways, and either default on the loan or try to get as much money back through resale. Makes me wonder if we will see a flood of resales in a few years, between the RIV and VGF contracts. Always seems to happen about a few years after a new resort gets opened up.

 

[RoseGold]

Makes me wonder if we will see a flood of resales in a few years, between the RIV and VGF contracts. Always seems to happen about a few years after a new resort gets opened up.

I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more RIV resale out there. You know unprecedented times and all that. There does seem to be A LOT of CCV up right now, and plenty of those people are underwater.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more RIV resale out there. You know unprecedented times and all that. There does seem to be A LOT of CCV up right now, and plenty of those people are underwater.

I'm guessing because the shut down happened so shortly after Riviera opened. If they had a bigger base established it would likely have been worse.

 

[Matty B13]

I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more RIV resale out there. You know unprecedented times and all that. There does seem to be A LOT of CCV up right now, and plenty of those people are underwater.

Also, DVC might be holding off on foreclosures right now and hoping the people can at least make there MF payments.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Also, DVC might be holding off on foreclosures right now and hoping the people can at least make there MF payments.

I'd find that unlikely.

 

[Ruttangel]

I think a resale of $180-$200 will be unsustainable once VGF-2 pricing is announced. I wouldn’t want to pay over $160 for VGF from now until VGF-2 does go on sale.
In my head there are 2 options for Disney for listing VGF-2

1. List it at RIV pricing but increase point chart (e.g. add theme park view category) and also increase min purchase to 150 points
2. List at $225 with same point chart as VGF, include heavy incentives for 200 points plus

Also worth adding that ROFR will probably stop at VGF for next 6 months so that should drive price down a bit. If you need to sell, now would be a good time.

 

[sethschroeder]

If Disney wants to come up with creative direct buy incentives.

I have never been not able to get what I want and I have booked VA 2x just decided to cancel both times.

I would rather reservations be held back for same day for resort guests.

 

[lizdis1]

If you ever go to their one on one presentations -- they make zero mention of your initial costs. They break it down like a car payment and just focus on your monthly payment. And this is even if you tell them you will, under no conditions, take out a loan. I went with my dad, and he was adamant about no loans and paying up front...I had to ask several times for the guide to put the numbers only in the final number as opposed to the monthly payment.

That's how they get you.

Same! My mom and I both own and both paid cash and they kept talking about monthly fees. Same when I added on 25 pts- I was told minn was 50 (but that’s for taking out a loan). I told the guide there’s no way I would take out a loan.

 

[Nabas]

Because of the VGF2 you expect the resale prices to come down?

In one of its articles DVC News speculated that, based on how Disney has priced concurrent resorts in the recent past, there's a real possibility that VGF2 will at least start at the same price as RIV.

 

[Nabas]

Yes. At present its a small resort and value in booking 11 months out. With an influx of 200 studios, it wont have the same unique booking window.

Hence, I think with the glut of new points, the re-sale value would decrease.

Unless you think I am wrong?

I'd be hard-pressed to buy VGF1 resale now at (for example) $190 per point when VGF2 is probably going to open for not much higher than that.

I suppose a lot of VGF resale buyers could simply stop buying resale now, waiting to see what happens, which could lead to a relative glut of VGF1 resale points in a few months.

 

[macman123]

I'd be hard-pressed to buy VGF1 resale now at (for example) $190 per point when VGF2 is probably not going to open for much higher than that.

I suppose a lot of VGF resale buyers could simply stop buying resale now, waiting to see what happens, which could lead to a relative glut of VGF1 resale points in a few months.

I'm in that boat but have paid two $5000 deposits........

 

[Nabas]

I'm in that boat but have paid two $5000 deposits........

For the sake of discussion, let's say that by the time VGF2 goes for sale, RIV is $210 per point. Let's also say that VGF2 opens at the same price as RIV. (I recognize several have suggested VGF2 should sell for a premium above RIV, but this hurts how Disney has marketed RIV and the Skyliner.)

Most resales are going for about 65% to 70% of direct pricing, with SSR being an outlier at 75%.

If we assume VGF1 resales will be 70% of VGF2, that puts VGF1 resales at $147 per point.

VGF1 resales are not going to go this low! But I could see VGF1 resales dropping to the same level as BLT or PVB, which puts them at around $165. This is about $20 per points less than recent resale sold prices.

Note that I'm not talking about VGF1 resale list prices, which I think are way too high given what's likely to happen at VGF2. I'm talking about the price that the DVC sold at closing.

We should see VGF1 resale list prices drop, once potential buyers realize they have a chance to buy directly from Disney for a lot less than the $255 "sold out" price.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Why would the price of new VGF resales contracts drop if Disney makes a new popular studio, which spurs sales? I would think demand for any VGF resales would pick up. If demand remains strong, I see no drop in resales pricing.

 

[macman123]

We should see VGF1 resale list prices drop, once potential buyers realize they have a chance to buy directly from Disney for a lot less than the $255 "sold out" price.

Indeed. So I paid $185pp for a 100 and 200 point contract. I have considered whether I should have them sold.

If we assume $165pp VGF1 resale that's a loss of $20pp.

But then there is say an 8% commission to say on any sale, plus an estoppel fee which is $150.

So even if I resell at $185pp before VGF2 comes out that's $2960 and $1480 in commission alone which gives $170pp less estoppel fee

If they go for $180pp instead with the commission of $2880 and $1440 that gives $165.60pp less estoppel fee.

Ive also assumed commission at 8% whereas the board sponsor charges 8.9%.

 

[Nabas]

Why would new VGF resales contracts drop if Disney makes a new popular studio, which spurs sales? I would think demand for any VGF resales would pick up. If demand remains strong, I see no drop in resales pricing.

$255 is VGF’s “sold out” price and is designed to discourage direct sales.

As has already noted by previous posters, the DVC member’s website has already pulled VGF from direct sales.

Disney has no intention of selling VGF2 at an opening price of $255.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I'd be hard-pressed to buy VGF1 resale now at (for example) $190 per point when VGF2 is probably going to open for not much higher than that.

I suppose a lot of VGF resale buyers could simply stop buying resale now, waiting to see what happens, which could lead to a relative glut of VGF1 resale points in a few months.

Not sure I agree here. What if sales open at or near $255/pt? Then waiting would not have been prudent. Since sales are not going to happen for at least 9 mos., I would buy now. Surely a price increase will be factored in by then.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

$255 is VGF’s “sold out” price and is designed to discourage direct sales.

As has already noted by previous posters, the DVC member’s website has already pulled VGF from direct sales.

Disney has no intention of selling VGF2 at an opening price of $255.

We simply dont know this. Some have stated that if you call your guide, they can still offer you VGF points.