VGF resale pricing

[Nabas]

Not sure I agree here. What if sales open at or near $255/pt? Then waiting would not have been prudent. Since sales are not going to happen for at least 9 mos., I would buy now. Surely a price increase will be factored in by then.

Time will tell.

 

[Nabas]

We simply dont know this. Some have stated that if you call your guide, they can still offer you VGF points.

Sure, if you go out of your way to buy something at $255, Disney will gladly sell it to you for significantly more than what they plan to sell it for in a few months.

Some seem to forget that $255 is the “sold out” price. VGF2 is not sold out.

 

[Sandisw]

Why would the price of new VGF resales contracts drop if Disney makes a new popular studio, which spurs sales? I would think demand for any VGF resales would pick up. If demand remains strong, I see no drop in resales pricing.

Except for a new buyer who sees a benefit in getting direct points and a blue card.

If you can get an unrestricted membership, for only a few thousand more, you would go direct.

Really comes down to the actual pricing when this goes on sale. If it comes down from $255...and I think it will..then it could have an impact.

Until then, I think the price will stay strong as people who want in don’t want to wait or already have a blue card and enough points that being restricted doesn’t matter.

I’m now waiting for new sales to add on there.

 

[RoseGold]

This thread feels like some kind of weird groupthink for a sale that won’t happen. Prices for everything have been going up, especially VGF resale.

Why on earth would Disney leave this money on the table? Disney is not stupid enough to sell you direct points at resale prices. Prices always go up, that’s the point. Gotta ACT NOW while it’s cheap, no matter when now is.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

This thread feels like some kind of weird groupthink for a sale that won’t happen. Prices for everything have been going up, especially VGF resale.

Why on earth would Disney leave this money on the table? Disney is not stupid enough to sell you direct points at resale prices. Prices always go up, that’s the point. Gotta ACT NOW while it’s cheap, no matter when now is.

I agree. As far as RIV and VGF are concerned, it’s comparing apples to oranges. I’m just amazed people think all of a sudden VGF resale prices are going to drop. Or direct prices starting out und $200/pt. Just not gonna happen……

 

[Nabas]

Why on earth would Disney leave this money on the table? Disney is not stupid enough to sell you direct points at resale prices. Prices always go up, that’s the point. Gotta ACT NOW while it’s cheap, no matter when now is.

DVC resale prices do not always go up. That's like saying home prices always go up. Right now, home prices are up something around 20% for the last 12 months. So is DVC. This is no coincidence.

Right now, the market is hot. Home prices are up. The stock market is up. DVC resales are up. All hot markets eventually crash.

The Fed has pumped TRILLIONS of dollars into the economy, artificially inflating prices.

Prior to COVID and with the VGF direct price at $245pp, Disney was selling an average of about 2200 VGF points per month.

For VGF2 to be successful, Disney is going to have to sell something close to 100,000 VGF2 points per month.

VGF2 direct will be competing with RIV direct.

VGF resale prices will be coming down.

 

[stwaldman]

Let's all agree to shut down the thread and just dunk on each other with quotes and screenshots when one side is proven wrong in 8 months

 

[RoseGold]

DVC resale prices do not always go up. That's like saying home prices always go up. Right now, home prices are up something around 20% for the last 12 months. So is DVC. This is no coincidence.

Sure, this is a time limited contract, eventually it will be going down. That’s not today. Since VGF launched, it has gone up, except a small dip for covid resale prices. Direct has always gone up, and resale has gone bananas after covid.

 

[stwaldman]

Let's all agree to shut down the thread and just dunk on each other with quotes and screenshots when one side is proven wrong in 8 months

for what its worth, i'll put my money where my mouth is so you can laugh at me too

its been a hot second since i took econ 101, but i'll say that basic supply and demand principles argue that $255 was a price they could maintain when inventory was low, and even had a waitlist in many instances. The demand for VGF changed in 2020 perhaps, but isn't increasing at any rate above the demand for DVC generally between now and when this goes on sale. The influx of 1-2M points justifies at least some drop in price.

That said, the points added are not going to be the points available at RIV, and I think Disney has a lot of evidence suggesting available inventory is a driver of pricing, just look at the upward trend for CCV when it crept towards selling out. As such, I'll peg my best guess at 225-235 direct pricing for VGF, similar to the last few hundred K points sold at CCV, increased a little bit for the arbitrary $5-10 pp increase disney seems to tack on every year.

I won't speculate as to if this is the "official" price, or if they get there through pricing at $255 but then offering a $20pp discount on 150 or 200 point contracts. Guessing level of detail is a fool's errand, akin to trying to guess ROFR patterns. Gonna go change my username now so you can't find me early next year.

 

[Nabas]

That said, the points added are not going to be the points available at RIV, and I think Disney has a lot of evidence suggesting available inventory is a driver of pricing, just look at the upward trend for CCV when it crept towards selling out. As such, I'll peg my best guess at 225-235 direct pricing for VGF, similar to the last few hundred K points sold at CCV, increased a little bit for the arbitrary $5-10 pp increase disney seems to tack on every year.

As I see it, Disney is most likely to employ one of two marketing strategies.

The first involves pricing VGF2 at what you suggest, $225-$235, to help spur RIV sales. "Look, RIV is a bargain!" I think this is the more likely scenario.

The second involves pricing VGF2 the same as RIV, whatever price RIV is when VGF2 sales start. Perhaps $210-$215 per point. "Look, RIV is just as luxurious and has just as great of a location (Skyliner vs. Monorail) as VGF!"

The thing is, Disney can always quickly raise prices if initial VGF2 sales are hot. They cannot lower them. Maybe it's better to have a month of hot sales and then adjust upward?

(This assumes the typical volume discounts are offered on both.)

 

[Sandisw]

This thread feels like some kind of weird groupthink for a sale that won’t happen. Prices for everything have been going up, especially VGF resale.

Why on earth would Disney leave this money on the table? Disney is not stupid enough to sell you direct points at resale prices. Prices always go up, that’s the point. Gotta ACT NOW while it’s cheap, no matter when now is.

I think many are basing it on how they have done things in the past as well as having both VGF and RIV to offer. Obviously, we do not know what DVD will do, but given the current state of things and the parks getting back to capacity...which means more opportunities to get new direct buyers...I can see them offering this less than what it is right now at the start of sales, and raise later.

I don't think it will go to RIV $201...but I would not be surprised to have it come down to $220 ish. And, if they can get the price of direct closer to resale, they increase their chances of getting those resale buyers to go direct...

 

[Roughians_satchel]

Could they sell both? No one is really talking about expiration - but is it possible they sell VGF1 with a 2064 at $255 but you can use the points at the original 14, and also sell VGF2 with a 2072 expiration at a cheeper price ($220ish) but they come with restrictions?

 

[Sandisw]

Could they sell both? No one is really talking about expiration - but is it possible they sell VGF1 with a 2064 at $255 but you can use the points at the original 14, and also sell VGF2 with a 2072 expiration at a cheeper price ($220ish) but they come with restrictions?

It would then have to be a new resort, with a new ground lease. Stating it will be part of the same condo association seems to indicate it will be the same product as all current VGF contracts.

 

[Roughians_satchel]

It would then have to be a new resort, with a new ground lease. Stating it will be part of the same condo association seems to indicate it will be the same product as all current VGF contracts.

Yet there are OKW contracts that are part of the same association with different expirations. I thought the association was for the maintenance of the resort, not to set in stone points expiration or usage.

 

[Jelly563]

This is The Grand, Disney is going to say.... You want The Grand ?? it's $250, if you don't wanna pay $250, you can get Riv for $215.... wadda wanna do ?? rooms are filling FAST

 

[sethschroeder]

SSR being an outlier at 75%.

Which is going to drop shortly with a price increase tomorrow from $165 to $180.

 

[sethschroeder]

This is The Grand, Disney is going to say.... You want The Grand ?? it's $250, if you don't wanna pay $250, you can get Riv for $215.... wadda wanna do ?? rooms are filling FAST

Ya it serve Disney no real purpose to sell out of VGF in 9 months. You want it around as an active resort that can draw in people. You can also spin the marketing of RIV + VGF currently on sale starting at $201/point (or whatever RIV is at that point).

 

[CaliAdventurer]

But a monthly payment of over $600/month (30k over 5 years) might be way to much for people. Close to $400/month for a 10 year loan at 10%.

I know people who can't afford this will end up buying anyways, and either default on the loan or try to get as much money back through resale. Makes me wonder if we will see a flood of resales in a few years, between the RIV and VGF contracts. Always seems to happen about a few years after a new resort gets opened up.

The demand for rentals is through the roof. Private owners now getting $18-23pp. No need to default anymore.

 

[Nabas]

Sure, this is a time limited contract, eventually it will be going down. That’s not today. Since VGF launched, it has gone up, except a small dip for covid resale prices. Direct has always gone up, and resale has gone bananas after covid.

Right, Disney's direct DVC prices always go up. Just like Disney's ticket prices and hotel prices always go up. They go up in good times and bad. They went up during the recessions of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.

What changes is the discount that Disney offers, depending on market conditions.

I remember the "buy 4, get 3 free" promotion. Buy 4 days of hotel, tickets, and Disney Dining Plan, get 3 days free! That worked out to be a 40% discount across the board. But direct prices never went down.

What does go up and down based on market conditions are DVC resale prices. Since 2010, we are in a record period of growth. VGF opened in 2013, just after the last DVC resale crash! VGF owners have known nothing but the "good times".

What about 2020? Why didn't resale prices tank then? Just look at what the Federal government did. Just look at the rest of the economy. Despite soaring unemployment, the prices of homes, lumber, gas, etc. went up! They were so afraid of a recession that they printed TRILLIONS of dollars to pump into the economy.

The United States hasn't seen double-digit inflation since 1980. That's 40 years! There are generations who have never experienced real inflation. We're now printing money with nothing to back it. That leads to inflation. That leads to higher prices for everything, including VGF resales.

We're now creating another Dot-Com bubble. But this time it's government funded.

What goes up must come down.

Meanwhile, Disney has stopped selling VGF1 at $255pp and will be offering nearly 2 million more points at $235pp or less. How can resale prices not go down?

Inflation, maybe.

But if we enter a period of inflation like the late 1970s ("Stagflation"), then we have bigger problems than how much we paid for our Disney timeshares.

 

[Matty B13]

The demand for rentals is through the roof. Private owners now getting $18-23pp. No need to default anymore.

Yes, but unfortunately I bet most of the people who default usually don't know a thing about DVC rentals. I know all the resale contracts that I bought had almost loaded contracts and were purchased direct within 2 years. I think even one family didn't even use their points after their direct purchase.