VGF resale pricing

[Sandisw]

Yet there are OKW contracts that are part of the same association with different expirations. I thought the association was for the maintenance of the resort, not to set in stone points expiration or usage.

When the ground lease was extended, by default all the contracts were. Owners were given the choice to pay for the extension or sign a quit claim deed giving ownership back in 2042.

Some owners did neither. Any one who did not and sells today, they must sign that deed before selling which means any new owner ends then.

It will be interesting what happens to all those contracts owned still by original owners when 2042 happens because technically they are extended to 2057 by default.

 

[KTownRaider]

I'm in the middle of ROFR on my VGF resale contract, and heard about the new VGF expansion with 1 day left in my 10 day back out period. I honestly couldn't digest what this expansion meant that day, and didn't exercise that option. Now I'm just along for the ride (unless I want to forfeit my $2K deposit- which is always an option I suppose). My resale is 110 pts at $192- a little higher than market, but I was ok with it when I signed given it was aligned with my existing UY. I do wish I had been given more time to understand what I was getting into. With all that's been written here and another thread, I'm left with several thoughts and questions.

Resale will take a hit- just a matter of how much. It shouldn't fall below the other monorail resorts (about $155-170ish) I think. I'm kinda bummed about that, but plan to own the contract for the next 15-20 years, and do believe it'll recover over time. I can't understand why anyone would be buying a VGF resale contract now until more details regarding VGF2 are released. Certainly, Disney isn't going to be ROFRing VGF for a long time.

VGF2 direct pricing may go down from $255, but I don't think it'll match RIV. If anything, RIV and other resorts (starting with SSR this week) will probably rise before VGF2 goes on sale. Depending on how fast economic inflation accelerates, Disney may not have to discount too much when it starts selling VGF 2 late this year or early next (at least before incentives).

I'm curious if Disney will find a way to impose resale restrictions on the VGF2 points. I know most people don't think what will happen, but I also believe if Disney can legally find a way, they will. If this did happen, then you'd have a new subdivision in the resale market- VGF1 resale with O14 access, and VGF2 resale limited to VGF. I guess this wouldn't be entirely unprecedented, since we have multiple flavors of OKW resale (2042 and 2057) and Aulani resale (normal vs subsidized dues). DVC is already a complicated product, and I hope this doesn't happen even though it would probably raise the value of my own contract.

Annual dues- slightly off topic- I haven't seen too much written on this, but one of my biggest curiosities is what impact this expansion may have (if any) on dues going forward. VGF is expensive to buy-in, but I really liked the idea that after the initial hit, I'd at least have one of the lowest dues in the DVC network to look forward to. I not pleased with having to wait another 6 months to see what impact this may have on maintenance fees. All first world problems I know...

 

[davidl81]

I'm curious if Disney will find a way to impose resale restrictions on the VGF2 points. I know most people don't think what will happen, but I also believe if Disney can legally find a way, they will. If this did happen, then you'd have a new subdivision in the resale market- VGF1 resale with O14 access, and VGF2 resale limited to VGF. I guess this wouldn't be entirely unprecedented, since we have multiple flavors of OKW resale (2042 and 2057) and Aulani resale (normal vs subsidized dues). DVC is already a complicated product, and I hope this doesn't happen even though it would probably raise the value of my own contract.

I think resale restrictions on VGF would have a minimal impact. Most people are buying VGF to stay there, not for SAP. Now restrictions on SSR would crush the resale value on those if some weird way that ever happened.

 

[RoseGold]

I'm in the middle of ROFR on my VGF resale contract, and heard about the new VGF expansion with 1 day left in my 10 day back out period. I honestly couldn't digest what this expansion meant that day, and didn't exercise that option. Now I'm just along for the ride (unless I want to forfeit my $2K deposit- which is always an option I suppose). My resale is 110 pts at $192- a little higher than market, but I was ok with it when I signed given it was aligned with my existing UY. I do wish I had been given more time to understand what I was getting into. With all that's been written here and another thread, I'm left with several thoughts and questions.

I think you're fine, though I admit I probably would have bailed in the 10 days. I can't see VGF opening anywhere close RIV prices. I'm confused at all these people who expect a VGF fire sale or are arguing with a straight face that VGF and RIV are equally desirable properties. I guess we will see how the resale math shakes out in next few months. Disney has always kept its $70 spread. They just aren't stupid enough to sell direct points at resale pricing. I don't see VGF being priced below BLT at all.

I've been arguing on these boards since before Covid that VGF was good value for SAP. It was true in the 170s, it was true when I bought in the 150s, and it's true at 192 (if you bought loaded). In the larger scheme of overall point cost, the $20 premium doesn't change the math much. So, even if the price wiggles a little, you're still doing well in the overall value. And I think VGF has room to run over time.

I think DL Tower and VGF are going to be mind-blowingly expensive. I say 275. Even if they're not, they certainly won't be below RIV, which I would expect to be 220ish by then. And you got an extra year, maybe two of points. Assuming that contract was loaded, I think it's fine. Use your points and enjoy it!

 

[Cyberc1978]

I think you're fine, though I admit I probably would have bailed in the 10 days. I can't see VGF opening anywhere close RIV prices. I'm confused at all these people who expect a VGF fire sale or are arguing with a straight face that VGF and RIV are equally desirable properties. I guess we will see how the resale math shakes out in next few months. Disney has always kept its $70 spread. They just aren't stupid enough to sell direct points at resale pricing. I don't see VGF being priced below BLT at all.

I've been arguing on these boards since before Covid that VGF was good value for SAP. It was true in the 170s, it was true when I bought in the 150s, and it's true at 192 (if you bought loaded). In the larger scheme of overall point cost, the $20 premium doesn't change the math much. So, even if the price wiggles a little, you're still doing well in the overall value. And I think VGF has room to run over time.

I think DL Tower and VGF are going to be mind-blowingly expensive. I say 275. Even if they're not, they certainly won't be below RIV, which I would expect to be 220ish by then. And you got an extra year, maybe two of points. Assuming that contract was loaded, I think it's fine. Use your points and enjoy it!

Why use VGF points as SAP why not use the cheapest overall points for that ie SSR they are much cheaper?

I totally agree VGF and RIV are not equally desirable, I’d go with VGF in a heartbeat.

 

[sethschroeder]

arguing with a straight face that VGF and RIV are equally desirable properties

I agree that RIV is more desirable as well. Glad you came over to our side.

Seriously though I think the big gap here is that RIV is Epcot which is somewhat hard to get with all other resorts being 2042 while VGF is MK which is much easier to get with all other resorts pretty much having 40 years left.

 

[sethschroeder]

Why use VGF points as SAP why not use the cheapest overall points for that ie SSR they are much cheaper?

I totally agree VGF and RIV are not equally desirable, I’d go with VGF in a heartbeat.

VGF isn't really any more expensive than SSR as SAP. You are talking about a $0.50-$0.75 difference in price per point each year. Thing is long term VGF is ALWAYS going to be valuable where as SSR is going to take a Wile E Coytee off a cliff when we hit 2042 between shorter contract length and hard to book SAP rooms.

Plus when you go to rent out your points VGF is more likely to be beneficial.

As an example my direct RIV points are only $0.98 more than SSR resale per the "economical DVC" article.

 

[KTownRaider]

I think you're fine, though I admit I probably would have bailed in the 10 days

Yeah- if I could go back a week and back out, I would. That said, it was a fully loaded contract with all '20 points banked into '21 which was a bonus. The fact that it wasn't ridiculously priced north of $200 and in my UY made it seem ideal. I already had a BLT trip booked for early next year and planned using this VGF resale in the fall '22. With the extra banked '20 points that were going to be expiring next year, I had started talking to my wife about using these extra points at Aulani possibly in the spring- something we were both excited about.

All this is to say, I had a lot going through my mind, and really only a half day to process. I knew I planned to own this contract for a long time, so I didn't want to make a rash decision. Maintenance fees make up the vast majority of the contract's lifetime cost, so I felt if they stayed on the lower end as it is today (BIG assumption), I'd still wind up happy long term with the deal- even if it takes a little time for resale to recover.

 

[RoseGold]

Yeah- if I could go back a week and back out, I would. That said, it was a fully loaded contract with all '20 points banked into '21 which was a bonus. The fact that it wasn't ridiculously priced north of $200 and in my UY made it seem ideal. I already had a BLT trip booked for early next year and planned using this VGF resale in the fall '22. With the extra banked '20 points that were going to be expiring next year, I had started talking to my wife about using these extra points at Aulani possibly in the spring- something we were both excited about.

If this opens at 255+, which I think it has to, you'll feel like a genius. That's a good buy on a loaded contract with two more years than VGF2 will have.

And if you plan on booking studios, I think this just makes your buy even better, assuming they stay in the same point range.

 

[Sandisw]

I agree that RIV is more desirable as well. Glad you came over to our side.

Seriously though I think the big gap here is that RIV is Epcot which is somewhat hard to get with all other resorts being 2042 while VGF is MK which is much easier to get with all other resorts pretty much having 40 years left.

I agree and let's be honest, deciding what is a better resort is way too subjective. I love VGF and RIV being my top two and I think both resorts are equally done well. Right now, RIV is top for me because I do Epcot so much more than I do MK. If my kids were little, then VGF would be top, with RIV being secondary.

VGF remains higher resale value because of it being smaller and not as many contracts out there so when they show up, they command more. I think the surprising thing...surprised myself too...is that people are paying more for RIV because now that it is open and they have stayed there, they do like it.

Who would have every thought 2 years ago I would have not only bought RIV, but now a resale contract to boot!

 

[Matty B13]

I think DL Tower and VGF are going to be mind-blowingly expensive. I say 275. Even if they're not, they certainly won't be below RIV, which I would expect to be 220ish by then. And you got an extra year, maybe two of points. Assuming that contract was loaded, I think it's fine. Use your points and enjoy it!

But $275/point x 125 points = $35,000.00 plus with fees are people really going to pay that after spending $5k to $10k at WDW on vacation? I know for some people $35k isn't a big deal, but even for upper middle class families that's at least a big discussion.

 

[RoseGold]

I know for some people $35k isn't a big deal, but even for upper middle class families that's at least a big discussion.

It's not 35K, it's $500 a month. Everyone knows that. Don't you care about your family? Did you know this hotel is over $800/night?

That's the pricing you get right now on 175 RIV/AUL points on the add on tool.

 

[Matty B13]

It's not 35K, it's $500 a month. Everyone knows that. Don't you care about your family? Did you know this hotel is over $800/night?

I know!!!!!! My daughters only go to WDW once a year...... I don't know how they manage having it so tough.

 

[npatellye]

It's not 35K, it's $500 a month. Everyone knows that. Don't you care about your family?

Can I just tell you that I have 10 local friends who are looking to buy in direct after having taken their first WDW trips this winter and spring and are using the “it’s only x many dollars a month” logic? It’s mind boggling to me how they’ve latched on to this monthly rate but I guess that’s how they reel a lot of people in.