Vero Beach... do the numbers work anymore?

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Okay. Nowhere did I suggest that it would. I am certainly not a timeshare expert and remain ignorant of what has happened with every other timeshare. My only point, and I will leave it with that, is the dues at OKW, within the DVC landscape, are not out of whack. If, as you assert as fact, OKW dues will accelerate into the future, then logic suggests that the other DVC timeshares will share the same future. Perhaps not at the same linear rate, but they will get there.

The difference is the other DVC timeshares will expire, but OKW will have another 15 years relative to those other contracts.

 

[Brian Noble]

...only if you happen to own an extended one. Otherwise it is Disney's problem.

And even then, I don't think the acceleration of costs is going to be that dramatic.

 

[BeachClub2014]

The difference is the other DVC timeshares will expire, but OKW will have another 15 years relative to those other contracts.

You lost me with this one? Not all other DVC timeshares expire before OKW. Here are two quick comparisons.

AKV (opened in 2007) dues are currently $9.64 with a cagr of 4.2%. AKV expires in 2057, the same as OKW.
BLT (opened in 2009) dues are currently $8.02 with a cagr of 5.0%. BLT expires in 2060, three years after OKW.

This illustrates my essential point: OKW is over 15 years older than these other two resorts, all three will expire in the same relative timeframe, and OKW's dues aren't really out of line with either, especially given its age.

I realize the OKW discussion is divergent from the original topic, Vero Beach, so my apologies for the distraction.

 

[Brian Noble]

You lost me with this one? Not all other DVC timeshares expire before OKW. Here are two quick comparisons.

I think the point was: any DVC timeshare has at most 50 years of service life. The one exception is OKW, which has 65 years of service life. Presumably, the last 15 years will be more expensive in terms of maintenance and upkeep than any other 15 year period, even in constant-dollar terms.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I think the point was: any DVC timeshare has at most 50 years of service life. The one exception is OKW, which has 65 years of service life. Presumably, the last 15 years will be more expensive in terms of maintenance and upkeep than any other 15 year period, even in constant-dollar terms.

Yes it’s this. The basis for my claim? Literally every other timeshare on the planet. Disney is not special.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Yes it’s this. The basis for my claim? Literally every other timeshare on the planet. Disney is not special.

So, by this metric, Polynesian and Grand Floridian owners should be worried as the hotel room portions of those resorts are far older than OKW.

I am still unclear as to why you keep saying that Disney isn't special or different from any other timeshare. What does that have to do with making dues comparisons from one DVD resort to another? The premise that took us down this tangent was that people should avoid buying OKW because of its dues. The numbers don't reflect that. Now, could dues at OKW hit some magical longevity point and suddenly increase exponentially compared to other DVC resorts? Maybe, but I doubt it.

 

[Brian Noble]

Literally every other timeshare on the planet. Disney is not special.

I am aware of this, and do not disagree with it. The question is: to what extent. I think there is a pretty good argument that that extra 15 years will not be unusually material---and that's not true of Disney per se, but true of any well-maintained property with a Board that is not pinching preventative maintenance pennies.

I think we can all agree that the DVC Boards do not pinch pennies.

 

[Cfabar1]

Staying on property is fundamentally different than staying off property. It just is. DVC allows you to buy a timeshare that lets you stay on property.

My view is it is unlike any other timeshare in the sense that the direct comparable "cash" product has an extraordinarily expensive base price and is highly desirable.

It is very different than the dues which are appropriate numbers but the cash buy-in doesn't even compare to cash rates at these resorts - that in many ways they can't even fill on normal cash rates and owners, so they end up discounting via Interval getaways.

Additionally, DVC is what is building the new cash resorts at Disney - it has been MANY years since they built a new Disney Deluxe Cash Resort, and I am not holding my breath thinking they will ever build another one. Only way I could see them doing that is if they decided to have the long rumored "in park" resorts be cash only - at least at first...