Vero Beach... do the numbers work anymore?

[Cfabar1]

I'd have to read the contracts, but I would assume DVC could sell or agree to have another organization manage any of their properties...

However, I believe the owners would have their usage through the conclusion the contract barring something clearly defined in the contract that provides Disney or the new owner an out....

The other "out" option is to keep raising dues 15% annually until enough people surrender their contracts...

 

[disneylandtour]

These are really starting to crash. DVDFL has the average (which I think is merely an average of the asking price) dropping from $61 in January to $49 in February. Anecdotally, I know that some final prices have settled around $40 and even a little below.

First it'll be VB then HH and then I'm starting to wonder if OWK 2042 will slide as well.

 

[Cfabar1]

OWK 2042 will slide as well.

How can it not?

You don't need to own there generally speaking to book at 11 months. The dues are high... You can buy cheaper points with a longer contract that you'll be able to use at OKW for an extra 15 years...

We love THE Disney Vacation Club as it was originally called... So relaxing....

You really see how the Dream-makers at Disney truly thought about everything when envisioning this resort...

However, with current prices on both 2042 and 2057 contracts, it is tough to justify buying more points there... I'd be more inclined to buy HHI personally... At least then you're getting an oceanfront condo with tough summer availability...

 

[TheDailyMoo]

However, with current prices on both 2042 and 2057 contracts, it is tough to justify buying more points there

I think there's a better case to be made to buy OKW 2042 rather than the extended. Like we all know OKW dues are beginning to approach the unjustifiable levels, albeit still slower than VB or HH, but if one can grab 2042 OKW contracts cheap enough it still makes some sort of sense rather than paying more upfront and then having to pay what will doubtless be ridiculously higher dues than rental rates in years 2043-2057. OKW 2042 trumps 2057 by a longshot in my opinion if kept till expiration.

 

[Brian Noble]

I'd be more inclined to buy HHI personally... At least then you're getting an oceanfront condo

When did they move it?

 

[DVC Deac]

OKW 2042 trumps 2057 by a longshot in my opinion if kept till expiration.

Maybe an unpopular opinion, but I agree. VB likely will win the race to $0, but OKW-E may be there the longest with the high dues, later expiration date, and general lack of 11 month advantage unless you’re booking a GV.

 

[TexasJedi]

I have never even considered VB, but noticed yesterday that there contracts for sale around $37-38 pp asking price.

It makes me wonder if we'll see a point in the next couple of years where the price/point will become a worthwhile investment for SAP even with the higher MFs.

Compare it with AKV, for example, and you could come out ahead for 8-10 years on total investment if/when prices drop further. With the time ticking on the overall contract length remaining, it feels like there will eventually be a point in the not-too-distant future where it could be a feasible option.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I have never even considered VB, but noticed yesterday that there contracts for sale around $37-38 pp asking price.

It makes me wonder if we'll see a point in the next couple of years where the price/point will become a worthwhile investment for SAP even with the higher MFs.

Compare it with AKV, for example, and you could come out ahead for 8-10 years on total investment if/when prices drop further. With the time ticking on the overall contract length remaining, it feels like there will eventually be a point in the not-too-distant future where it could be a feasible option.

I’ve seen mention that for someone who would need to finance a higher cost contract, Vero could make sense as a more “pay as you go” lower upfront cost option paid in cash with high dues vs high financing costs. It sort of makes sense. But in that scenario, not buying may make the most sense.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I don't think the OKW dues are necessarily a deal breaker. If the data provided by DVC Resale Market is accurate, the compound annual growth rate at OKW is 4.6%. OKW dues are performing worse than some resorts and better than others.

Here's the chart I was looking at: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/buying/annual-dues/

Now, I suppose the dues may start to accelerate more than at other resorts, but that hasn't been the case so far.

In the big scheme of things, the delta in today's dollars between OKW dues and the cheapest (Polynesian) on a 150-point contract is the equivalent of a family breakfast (with mimosas) at the Crystal Palace in Magic Kingdom.

 

[McCrae]

Maybe an unpopular opinion, but I agree. VB likely will win the race to $0, but OKW-E may be there the longest with the high dues, later expiration date, and general lack of 11 month advantage unless you’re booking a GV.

All resorts will end up priced at 0 in the end.

 

[Girlstar30]

This. Sitting on another 200 Poly points direct until next round of incentives are released in a few days. Right now Poly offers best flexibility on direct points, and I could not resist.

.

 

[Cfabar1]

All depends on how you vacation...

I love the resort OKW, but I hate getting in a car and driving, I tolerate having someone give me a ride in a bus, but really want to park my car and walk everywhere the entire time....

As great as OKW is, it doesn't check the box for me... The high dues also mean I would be more likely to buy points resale somewhere else...

But it is a very special resort - the largest rooms (actually the size the rest of them should be in my opinion), very tranquil setting, a lovely breakfast spot, unlike any of the other DVC resorts except perhaps VB...

 

[TheDailyMoo]

All resorts will end up priced at 0 in the end.

Sounds like the stocks I tend to buy

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

It makes me wonder if we'll see a point in the next couple of years where the price/point will become a worthwhile investment for SAP even with the higher MFs.

No, because the inflation rates of the dues there versus the inflation rates of renting points means those streams are going to cross, and soon.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

the compound annual growth rate at OKW is 4.6%.

This leaves out the fact that timeshare dues always increase at a higher rate as timeshares age. Just because it averages 4.6 percent over its life doesn’t mean that’s what it’s going to average in it’s final decades.

 

[Brian Noble]

but really want to park my car and walk everywhere the entire time....

Tough to do in Lake Buena Vista. Anaheim works. Interestingly, so does Marne-la-Vallée.

the size the rest of them should be in my opinion

Quoted for truth.

 

[BeachClub2014]

This leaves out the fact that timeshare dues always increase at a higher rate as timeshares age. Just because it averages 4.6 percent over its life doesn’t mean that’s what it’s going to average in it’s final decades.

I have no idea if timeshare dues always increase at a higher rate as the timeshare ages. Maybe that's a fact, perhaps it's not. If valid, then that same fact would apply to all of the other DVC timeshares, right?

I wasn't trying to predict the future. My essential point is that OKW's current dues are not out of whack within the DVC landscape. If good deals can be found for either 2042 or 2057 contracts, and you want to own at OKW, then dues shouldn't be a deal breaker.

If rental rates don't keep pace with dues increases overall, there will likely be a broader "dues problem" than at OKW.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I have no idea if timeshare dues always increase at a higher rate as the timeshare ages. Maybe that's a fact, perhaps it's not. If valid, then that same fact would apply to all of the other DVC timeshares, right?

Correct, but OKW is the only DVC timeshare that has an extra 15 years on it. And the dues aging thing is mostly down to the fact that aging infrastructure costs more to maintain. No amount of Disney pixie dust will help it escape the fate of every other timeshare.

The only odd quirk that could help save it I suppose is that Disney may end up holding a lot of inventory in the last 15 years and will have a serious incentive to keep costs down as a result.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Correct, but OKW is the only DVC timeshare that has an extra 15 years on it. And the dues aging thing is mostly down to the fact that aging infrastructure costs more to maintain. No amount of Disney pixie dust will help it escape the fate of every other timeshare.

Okay. Nowhere did I suggest that it would. I am certainly not a timeshare expert and remain ignorant of what has happened with every other timeshare. My only point, and I will leave it with that, is the dues at OKW, within the DVC landscape, are not out of whack. If, as you assert as fact, OKW dues will accelerate into the future, then logic suggests that the other DVC timeshares will share the same future. Perhaps not at the same linear rate, but they will get there.

 

[hhisc16]

Interesting article discussing VB:
https://dvcfan.com/general-dvc/at-what-point-is-a-vero-beach-contract-worthwhile/