Vero Beach... do the numbers work anymore?

[Cfabar1]

Let me start this out by saying we are big fans of Disney's Vero Beach Resort. We love everything the property stands for, and it is truly wonderful. I wish there were more off-property DVC options, and think they do a great job maintaining that resort and creating an inviting and warm atmosphere. We also love the CMs who work there! They are just amazing!!!

In looking at recent VB Cash Rates it looks like they are about even with the dues cost alone. These were in the 1 BR category.... 2 BR points seemed to still make sense. Some nights looked slightly cheaper to book cash, and other nights looked slightly cheaper just paying for dues at VB (no buy in cost).

Seems very hard to justify paying even $40 pp to purchase VB when you can just book cash rates for roughly the cost per night of dues! Now, that said, getting into VB can be difficult, so perhaps it is worth paying a premium to guarantee access to this resort?

We had a VB contract at one point - going through this exercise makes me glad we sold it! It is a very different picture with our VGF contract!

Are there any other resorts that are starting to trend this way? Maybe OKW?

 

[Disney.dad]

Definitely makes sense if you want beach cottages. We have purchased a couple of contracts for that use. If you want a 1 bedroom I don’t know if it can make sense vs just using SAP from Saratoga or similar.

 

[hhisc16]

Let me start this out by saying we are big fans of Disney's Vero Beach Resort. We love everything the property stands for, and it is truly wonderful. I wish there were more off-property DVC options, and think they do a great job maintaining that resort and creating an inviting and warm atmosphere. We also love the CMs who work there! They are just amazing!!!

In looking at recent VB Cash Rates it looks like they are about even with the dues cost alone. These were in the 1 BR category.... 2 BR points seemed to still make sense. Some nights looked slightly cheaper to book cash, and other nights looked slightly cheaper just paying for dues at VB (no buy in cost).

Seems very hard to justify paying even $40 pp to purchase VB when you can just book cash rates for roughly the cost per night of dues! Now, that said, getting into VB can be difficult, so perhaps it is worth paying a premium to guarantee access to this resort?

We had a VB contract at one point - going through this exercise makes me glad we sold it! It is a very different picture with our VGF contract!

Are there any other resorts that are starting to trend this way? Maybe OKW?

Dhhir is in a similar place.
Booking studios, 1 bedroom, and grand villas are tough.
Booking 2 bedrooms are much easier and sometimes the same cost as dues.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Funny to see so many VB resellers out to lunch...trying to sell huge non loaded contracts in the 60s and even 70s.

 

[Cfabar1]

Funny to see so many VB resellers out to lunch...trying to sell huge non loaded contracts in the 60s and even 70s.

the only reason they have any value at all at this point is the trading and for those who want beachfront cottages or guaranteed 11 month availability...

I would find it tough to pay 48/pp for them right now.... let alone 72....

 

[TheDailyMoo]

the only reason they have any value at all at this point is the trading and for those who want beachfront cottages or guaranteed 11 month availability...

I would find it tough to pay 48/pp for them right now.... let alone 72....

I thought about offering $25pp for some decent sized contracts to use as SAP but the funny thing is most sellers would balk at that offer while simultaneously still being a bad buy for me considering where the dues are going. If what I said makes sense.

 

[Cfabar1]

I thought about offering $25pp for some decent sized contracts to use as SAP but the funny thing is most sellers would balk at that offer while simultaneously still being a bad buy for me considering where the dues are going. If what I said makes sense.

Yes it does. Here is what I’ve been thinking about lately with VB.

Dues are roughly $14/pp
Points can be rented at about $21/pp

Over a two year period dues will cost me $28 or $42 pp to rent those points

For me to have some upside I would have to buy a fully loaded contract. Say at $10/pp my all in cost would be about $24/pp

I could buy it take two years of points out of it and then give it away or sell it for say $8/pp before dues hit $15/pp no later than 2027.

I’m sure I could find a seller, but couldn’t figure out how to find a buyer.

 

[Yankee626]

Pretty soon Owners will have to Pay someone to take that contract. In 5 years at this rate it will be over $20 a point for your MF. I think the only people buying these contracts don't understand the MF Costs. Uneducated Buyers. I also believe all the 2042 resorts are way overpriced. Some beautiful resorts but the $100+PP is way overpriced. There are only 17 years left on most of those contracts. Then again with all the games DVC is playing with their new resorts and resale restrictions ; taxes on stays (DL& AUL) and ridiculous MF ( Cabins) I almost understand the appeal. I think the only resort right now worth purchasing direct is the POLY because there are no restrictions and the MF are respectable. This will be the last one you see like this for sale from DVC.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

I think the only resort right now worth purchasing direct is the POLY because there are no restrictions and the MF are respectable. This will be the last one you see like this for sale from DVC.

This. Sitting on another 200 Poly points direct until next round of incentives are released in a few days. Right now Poly offers best flexibility on direct points, and I could not resist.

 

[BuzzLightyr]

There are two things to think about for Vero points.

One - does it make sense to redeem dvc points for Vero? There are a few spots that do make sense and a lot of spots that don't. Maybe this can get solved in a point reallocation across seasons and room types.

Two - does Vero points make sense for SAP. The points seem cheap to buy upfront because of dues. Some of those loaded contracts could be interesting with the right seller motivation to sell. I'd view the value as the value of sap (vs sap+) points and the difference in rental value (say $16/point which is on the low end) vs dues at $14/point. Then it's a present value of that difference with a view of does Vero mf inflation exceed dvc rental cost (maybe if insurance goes up, but labor is a big part of mf).

2042s vs longer contracts - the point charts want me to redeem at the 2042 resorts. Throw in 11 month booking window for unicorn bookings like boardwalk standard or akv value this is why people pay $100/point.

I am watching Vero prices for my addonitis. But part of me is considering more okw, akv or bwv instead. My argument on price is with 11 MO window I can book in a cheaper room catoegry than 7 MO and use fewer points.

 

[atthebeachclub]

2042s vs longer contracts - the point charts want me to redeem at the 2042 resorts. Throw in 11 month booking window for unicorn bookings like boardwalk standard or akv value this is why people pay $100/point.

Exactly this. And compare Beach Club and Boardwalk to their hotel rates and buying points still makes sense if you want to stay there and enjoy, especially for studios (Or for 2 bedrooms for Boardwalk). Of course you can always rent points…but not everyone is comfortable with that.

And AKV Value…difficult to get, but it also expires in 2057! Just 3 years before BLT!

 

[PlutoNotThePlanet]

I've been doing some analysis on resale contracts based on the thread "Most Economical Resorts - Beyond Year 1" and Vero Beach is just one the worst performers. The high dues and high dues growth rate mean that you are paying thousands over the equivalent SAP cost for a weekly stay (after accounting for both upfront cost and dues). But almost nothing at VB warrants having the 11-month booking window there. The Beach Cottages cost something like $3k-$5k extra for a week if you buy and use a VB contract instead of AUL-S or SSR.

 

[cfarl]

We have our original contract with DVC at Vero. We tried to sell it about 5 years ago to no avail. I definitely don't see finding a buyer now. I guess we will see what happens with dues in the future. On a positive note we absolutely love the resort. But it does not make monetary sense any more.

 

[Genie+]

There’s alot to choose within 7 months. I just found 7 nights Sunday to Sunday 104pts!

That’s late April and what I’d consider absolutely splendid weather for Vero.

For now it makes zero sense for me to pay $14pp VB dues when it’s still super easy to find something incredible at 7 months or less.

There are quite a few 4 day runs in 2BR that time of year as well. Looks like as long as we had some flexibility we’d be able to meet most goals.

 

[RoseGold]

You're assuming those contracts are going for list price. There are still motivated sellers, and I would think lowball offers will work eventually. This will be more and more true in coming years, assuming dues stay so relatively high, which I see no reason to change. I wouldn't buy a Vero contract for free because of the hurricane risk.

Other strategy would be to wait until the hurricane, and then buy after assessment. I can imagine assessments being more than contract value, forcing sellers to bring money to the table to close. If that happens, obvious path of foreclosure will impact the whole DVC market.

For me, the math is obvious to buy SSR to use at VB, even if you have to buy more point-heavy rooms. Heck, even OKW. The math that matters here is dues, not the $40 buy in.

 

[PlutoNotThePlanet]

This will be more and more true in coming years, assuming dues stay so relatively high, which I see no reason to change. I wouldn't buy a Vero contract for free because of the hurricane risk.

It's interesting that VB may become the one resale contract that is given away or for very cheap due to the high MFs, similar to other timeshare systems. DVC has largely been in a different category until recently.

 

[RoseGold]

It's interesting that VB may become the one resale contract that is given away or for very cheap due to the high MFs, similar to other timeshare systems. DVC has largely been in a different category until recently.

Surprised they haven't sold it, honestly.

 

[CarolynFH]

Surprised they haven't sold it, honestly.

Since it’s a condominium association under the laws of the state of Florida, I’d assume they can’t sell it without consent of some majority percentage of the owners (unless it’s destroyed or severely damaged by hurricane or fire, etc.). But once February 1, 2042, rolls around and ownership reverts to Disney, I’ll be surprised if it’s not put up for sale.

 

[RoseGold]

Since it’s a condominium association under the laws of the state of Florida, I’d assume they can’t sell it without consent of some majority percentage of the owners (unless it’s destroyed or severely damaged by hurricane or fire, etc.). But once February 1, 2042, rolls around and ownership reverts to Disney, I’ll be surprised if it’s not put up for sale.

Of course they can sell it. Bluegreen sold the whole system.

Edit: Tearing it down is more interesting, but I don't see why they can't do that too. If the property is not economically sustainable, then they aren't going to keep foreclosing worthless stuff in this flavor of timeshare. The absolutely insane dues show this property is not doing well comparatively. Foreclosing works in nastier timeshare models, where it's kind of the point. But in the DVC model, all the points are connected, and this isn't good for the overall system. Relative economic failure is not too far off of the current scenario, and a hurricane could push it over.

I would much rather be holding boring SSR points.

 

[Brian Noble]

Hyatt's sale did not impact the usage rights of ownership at each resort, and tearing it down certainly would.