VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[buzlite]

Does someone have a summary of all the available incentives. We are planning to buy 50-100 points soon at VDH but don’t want to miss any incentives. I remember their was previously a sell your first year points back incentive or something as well.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Does someone have a summary of all the available incentives. We are planning to buy 50-100 points soon at VDH but don’t want to miss any incentives. I remember their was previously a sell your first year points back incentive or something as well.

No incentives for anything under 100 points. No Magic Beginnings or Welcome Home.

It’s an incentive based off number of points and $1500 if you have Magic Key.

 

[Dobermanns]

Does someone have a summary of all the available incentives. We are planning to buy 50-100 points soon at VDH but don’t want to miss any incentives. I remember their was previously a sell your first year points back incentive or something as well.

https://dvcexplorer.com/fin/m/VillasatDisneyland_Member_Magickey.pdf

As @AstroBlasters pointed out, there is no Welcome Home currently. Magical Beginnings is available at 150 points or above.

There is CM/military discount of $500 at 100 points or above.

 

[ehh]

Update time!

I still intend to do these updates monthly, but was traveling most weekends in Nov/Dec and if dvcnews.com posts their sales info first, I just put it off for next month.

Total points recorded as of December 31st, 2024: ~834k points (25.6% of all points).
Points recorded in October: ~20.2k points.
Points recorded in November: ~18.0k points.
Points recorded in December: ~19.4k points.

Points recorded in 2023: 567k points.
Points recorded in 2024: 267k points.

We're finally starting to get to months where year over year comparisons are meaningful, just needed to get past the initial sales burst and sales bump from opening in late Sept, 2023.

October 2024 was down ~12.9k compared to October 2023 (33.0k).
November 2024 was down ~13.3k compared to November 2023 (31.3k).
December 2024 was up ~2.7k compared to December 2023 (16.7k).

At the sales rate from the last 3 months (19.2k/mo), VDH will sell out in 126 months, or 10 years and 6 months from now.

Fun facts about October, November, and December's sales:

November set yet another record for highest pts/contract, at a whopping 202.4pt/contract. 2nd place was September at 184.8pt/contract and 3rd and 4th place are also in the last few months.

November was also a slow month that had some mega contracts: 1,000pt, 2x 700pt, and a 600pt. I'm skeptical we're going to see a higher pts/contract in the future unless more mega contracts align like that.

As for Favorite Weeks, I think we had a couple!

• 138pt that I believe belongs to @VGCgroupie
• 321pt that could be a 1BR in W11, W40-46, W48-50
• There was also a contract that might have been a 184pt, though the tax calculated out to 186.2pts (a calculated points value ending in "6.Xpts" often means ending in the nearest 5, 185 in this case, which is not a FW).

Unit 3B was the most recorded unit across the three months. 2nd place was Unit 4A. Unit 3B took the crown in every month.

Unit 3C also appeared for the first time! I suspected there was a 3C despite 4A showing up first. But I haven't mail ordered the declaration documents yet so I wasn't sure.

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, 2A, 2B, and 2C. It's possible that 3A has sold out, too, but it's a little early to confirm those suspicions.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in October:

• 117 contracts recorded
  • 35x 150pt contracts (31 the prior month)
  • 33x 200pt contracts (33 the prior month)
  • 14x 50pt contracts (6 the prior month)
  • 11x 100pt contracts (8 the prior month)
  • 11x 250pt contracts (13 the prior month)
  • 7x 300pt contracts (5 the prior month)
  • 2x 500pt contracts (2 the prior month)
  • 4x other contracts (9 the prior month)
• 172.3pt average contract size in October
• 500pt is largest contract in October (2x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 3B was assigned the most (10.4k, 2nd most was 4A at 3.1k)

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in November:

• 89 contracts recorded, a new low
  • 27x 150pt contracts (35 the prior month)
  • 15x 200pt contracts (33 the prior month)
  • 13x 100pt contracts (11 the prior month)
  • 8x 50pt contracts (14 the prior month)
  • 8x 300pt contracts (7 the prior month)
  • 7x 250pt contracts (11 the prior month)
  • 2x 350pt contracts (0 the prior month)
  • 2x 700pt contracts (0 the prior month)
  • 7x other contracts (4 the prior month)
• 202.4pt average contract size in November, highest ever
• 1,000pt is largest contract in November
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 700pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 3B was assigned the most (9.6k, 2nd most was 4A at 4.6k)

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in December:

• 108 contracts recorded
  • 37x 150pt contracts (27 the prior month)
  • 18x 200pt contracts (15 the prior month)
  • 12x 100pt contracts (13 the prior month)
  • 10x 300pt contracts (8 the prior month)
  • 9x 50pt contracts (8 the prior month)
  • 8x 250pt contracts (7 the prior month)
  • 3x 400pt contracts (1 the prior month)
  • 11x other contracts (7 the prior month)
• 179.7pt average contract size in December
• 500pt is largest contract in December
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 400pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (3x)
• Unit 3B was assigned the most (8.7k, 2nd most was 4A at 5.7k)

Points recorded by date:

"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

Points recorded by month:

 

[MartyParty]

Good work as always ehh!

I found the chart showing the average amount of points purchased interesting. May 2023 around 135 points versus Dec 2024 180 points. My guess is the early crowd were existing DVC owners adding on whereas the latter group of folks are new buyers.

Just an observation.

 

[ehh]

I found the chart showing the average amount of points purchased interesting. May 2023 around 135 points versus Dec 2024 180 points. My guess is the early crowd were existing DVC owners adding on whereas the latter group of folks are new buyers.

Just an observation.

I agree that it's at least partly due to a shift from add-ons to new buyers.

Other factors I think:

• Incentives that expired in October had a big gap between 150pts and 200pts, and 200pt contracts sold well then (but also continue to...)
• In-the-know buyers know you can get a Studio most of the year at 7m. Only the bigger villas need 11m booking window most of the year, and those mean more points.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I agree that it's at least partly due to a shift from add-ons to new buyers.

Other factors I think:

• Incentives that expired in October had a big gap between 150pts and 200pts, and 200pt contracts sold well then (but also continue to...)
• In-the-know buyers know you can get a Studio most of the year at 7m. Only the bigger villas need 11m booking window most of the year, and those mean more points.

Is it getting easier @7m?

 

[MartyParty]

Is it getting easier @7m?

As per our recent January trip, it doesn't feel like it on the points side. Need more inventory declared. I think once declarations get above 60% the abundance of studios will be there.

And as I suspected, the days of stalking and getting something at the 7-month mark at VGC are gone. Not having points at VGC, in the past we have been able to get a 1 bedroom at 7 months. Not sure that's easy anymore with influx of VDH points on the West Coast that can be used at both resorts.

Connected to this thought, we had a brief catch up with our guide while at VDH. He said there was availability as the resort was 71% booked. Suggested we visit the front desk and see about moving up to a bedroom villa suit. We were already settled into our two studios and decided not to. Perhaps there is availability on the cash side.

 

[VGCgroupie]

As per our recent January trip, it doesn't feel like it on the points side. Need more inventory declared. I think once declarations get above 60% the abundance of studios will be there.

And as I suspected, the days of stalking and getting something at the 7-month mark at VGC are gone. Not having points at VGC, in the past we have been able to get a 1 bedroom at 7 months. Not sure that's easy anymore with influx of VDH points on the West Coast that can be used at both resorts.

Connected to this thought, we had a brief catch up with our guide while at VDH. He said there was availability as the resort was 71% booked. Suggested we visit the front desk and see about moving up to a bedroom villa suit. We were already settled into our two studios and decided not to. Perhaps there is availability on the cash side.

Interesting!

 

[ehh]

Some bad news y'all: the Orange County Clerk Recorder site no longer lists Unit number or tax amount.

What does this mean? Simply put, I can no longer track points being recorded.

I used tax amount to infer the points on a contract, so without the tax amount I have no idea what the size of the contract is. I also can't track Units, which were fun to monitor, but were also a piece of the puzzle to determine which contracts were VDH vs. VGC.

I'll keep checking periodically, but not looking good for my ability to meaningfully monitor VDH sales. All I can tell you about January is that they recorded 143 contracts from DVD, of which roughly 140 are VDH and roughly 3 are VGC (based on historical trends).

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Some bad news y'all: the Orange County Clerk Recorder site no longer lists Unit number or tax amount.

What does this mean? Simply put, I can no longer track points being recorded.

I used tax amount to infer the points on a contract, so without the tax amount I have no idea what the size of the contract is. I also can't track Units, which were fun to monitor, but were also a piece of the puzzle to determine which contracts were VDH vs. VGC.

I'll keep checking periodically, but not looking good for my ability to meaningfully monitor VDH sales. All I can tell you about January is that they recorded 143 contracts from DVD, of which roughly 140 are VDH and roughly 3 are VGC (based on historical trends).

This might make your future numbers less exact but still a good guess and faster to write a report. Appreciate all your work on this so far - very interesting reading!