VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[superlarz]

So lovely! You’ll love your tour. I could move into the 1 bedroom

I stayed in a 1br last week and can say that i wholeheartedly agree

 

[AstroBlasters]

I stayed in a 1br last week and can say that i wholeheartedly agree

Did you use the dishwasher?

 

[superlarz]

Did you use the dishwasher?

I did not personally load or start the dishwasher but members of my party did use it

 

[noisycricket]

We used the dishwasher during our stay. Totally fine-- better than the really old one that seemed on its last legs at VGC.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

.

 

[ehh]

Working on the April and 'First year' updates today, been traveling and dealing with real life stuff.

I do want to highlight that it appears DVD declared more inventory on May 9, 2024. I have no idea what they declared without purchasing a paper copy of the documents (which cannot be paid for online), and I'm not sure I'm going to purchase a copy.

One thing that would sway me is if I have a decent way to upload it so everyone can read it. If I were to scan it, does DISBoards allow for a 17pg PDF upload? Or is there a better place to upload it?

 

[ehh]

Monthly update!

Total points recorded as of April 30th: ~658k points (20.2% of all points).
Points recorded in April: ~20.0k points.

Just under 20k points recorded in April, 19,988 by my estimates. An improvement over March (16.2k) but still the 3rd lowest month ever for VDH.

Despite prices going up to $239/pt on Feb 1, still seeing a trickle of $230/pt contracts being recorded in April, with 31 of the 120 deeds being more likely to be $230 rather than $239, based on the recording tax paid.

At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 130 months, or 10.8 years from now...that's early/mid-2035!

The April 1 price/incentive updates are our first indications that maybe DVD wants to pick up the pace a bit as 200+ point contracts are now available below pre-sales pricing, as long as you qualify for the Welcome Home incentive, but there wasn't a statistically-confident uptick in larger contracts (at least not yet).

As of April 30th, ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~20.2% of the resort has been sold. That leaves about 2% of headroom, roughly 70k points, before more Units must be declared. It appears that DVD took the plunge on May 9, though I don't have the declaration details at this time.

Something I noted last three months but continues to be a thorn to sales monitoring is a change OCRW made. Previously, OCRW would publish the Lot Number, the Transfer Tax Amount, and the Unit #. Now they just post Transfer Tax and Unit #, making it harder to differentiate VGC sales from VDH (which have different lot numbers). Yes, DVC has been selling a trickle of VGC this entire time.

In fact, while I haven't been tracking VGC sales I think there's actually been an uptick in the sales rate (or at least I feel like I'm deleting more spreadsheet rows as being more-likely-VGC-than-not).

DVD also increased the base price for VDH, which also has an impact to sales monitoring. Without getting too inside baseball, OCRW doesn't post how many points are sold, just the Transfer Tax paid. Transfer Tax is proportional to the pre-incentive price of the contract. So a 150pt contract at a $230/pt base price would show up as $37.95 of Transfer Tax, but at the new $239/pt base price it shows up as $39.60. But $39.60 was also a valid tax amount before for a 155pt or 156pt contract, so discerning whether a contract is on the new pricing or old pricing is a bit of a judgement call currently.

I estimate 89 of the 120 contracts recorded this month were at the higher $239/pt. I'm a bit surprised that 31 of 120 had such a delayed closing that they qualified for the older pricing--the price changed Feb 1!

I'll do my best to take educated guesses on the contract size, but there have definitely been some challenges.

Spoiler: Challenging/interesting contract recordings this month

I figure most people won't care about this so gonna bury this into a spoiler, but some contracts recorded this month were fairly interesting from my perspective.

Feb Contract 1 - $48.40 Transfer Tax
Never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 190pt or 191pt and for $239 it works out to 183pt or 184pt. I went with 184pt as it has the most Favorite Week matches, but 191pt also has a bunch of matches (arguably more worthwhile matches, too).

Feb Contract 2 - $110.00 Transfer Tax
Also never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 433pt or 434pt and for $239/pt it works out to 417pt or 418pt. I went with 433pt, which is a match for a W51/52 1BR, but 417pt would have been a match for W18 2BR.

March Contract 1 - $112.20 Transfer Tax
Never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 442pt or 443pt and for $239 it works out to 426pt or 425pt. None of these appear to be matches for Favorite Weeks. I went with 425pt as it is the most round number and aligns with the current pricing.

Multiple contracts - $39.60 Transfer Tax
Unlike the above 2, I have seen this before. It works out to 155pt or 156pt in $230/pt pricing (I've been assuming 155pt). But it's also 150pt in $239/pt pricing, which is the most common contract size. I'm going to assume all $39.60 are 150pt on $239/pt pricing until the next price increase.

(let me know if you found me showing my math/process interesting)

As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.


Fun facts about April's sales:

April was kind of boring in terms of interesting contracts, with only a 222pt contract likely being a fixed week for a SV Deluxe Studio in W51-52 and the largest contract(s) were 'just' three 500pt contracts.

Unit 2C was the top seller again, with over 70% of this month's points. I think all declared Units, except 1A, have now appeared in recorded contracts (there might be a small Unit 2D). Unit 2B sales fell off to third place while 1I (one eye) came in 2nd this month. There were a few more of early-Unit contracts (1B, 1E) recorded this month, as well.

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, and 2A. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet.

Also of note: I've reclassified last month's 209pt 'Unit 3A' contract as a 160pt VGC contract. I'm not updating prior posts with this change.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in April:

• 120 contracts recorded
  • 41x 150pt contracts (42 the prior month)
  • 21x 200pt contracts (14 the prior month)
  • 16x 50pt contracts (13 the prior month)
  • 12x 100pt contracts (10 the prior month)
  • 9x 300pt contracts (2 the prior month)
  • 6x 250pt contracts (14 the prior month)
  • 15x other contracts (22 the prior month)
• 166.6pt average contract size in April
  • May had an average of 128.2pt
  • June had an average of 142.8pt
  • July had an average of 157.2pt
  • August had an average of 152.7pt
  • September had an average of 149.8pt
  • October had an average of 165.1pt
  • November had an average of 164.8pt
  • December had an average of 154.7pt
  • January 2024 had an average of 162.6pt
  • February 2024 had an average of 167.2pt, highest ever
  • March 2024 had an average of 153.1pt
• 500pt is largest contract in April (3x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (3x)
• Unit 2C was assigned the most (14.2k, 2nd most was 1I at 2,350)

Points recorded by date:

"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.




Points recorded by month:

 

[NorCalFanatic]

.

 

[noisycricket]

This is amazing info, especially with the challenges of categorizing the different sales. Thanks for all this!

Monthly update!

Total points recorded as of April 30th: ~658k points (20.2% of all points).
Points recorded in April: ~20.0k points.

...

Something I noted last three months but continues to be a thorn to sales monitoring is a change OCRW made. Previously, OCRW would publish the Lot Number, the Transfer Tax Amount, and the Unit #. Now they just post Transfer Tax and Unit #, making it harder to differentiate VGC sales from VDH (which have different lot numbers). Yes, DVC has been selling a trickle of VGC this entire time.

In fact, while I haven't been tracking VGC sales I think there's actually been an uptick in the sales rate (or at least I feel like I'm deleting more spreadsheet rows as being more-likely-VGC-than-not).
...

I'll do my best to take educated guesses on the contract size, but there have definitely been some challenges.

When you mention VGC sales, I assume you mean direct sales? If yes, I wonder how the buyers were able to get a hold of them. Is DVC clearing out the (many) years long wait list?

 

[AstroBlasters]

This is amazing info, especially with the challenges of categorizing the different sales. Thanks for all this!


When you mention VGC sales, I assume you mean direct sales? If yes, I wonder how the buyers were able to get a hold of them. Is DVC clearing out the (many) years long wait list?

Luck of the draw based on your guide activity looking for them.

 

[ahintz]

Just wanted to say thanks for continuing to monitor this and compile these updates!

 

[ehh]

This is amazing info, especially with the challenges of categorizing the different sales. Thanks for all this!


When you mention VGC sales, I assume you mean direct sales? If yes, I wonder how the buyers were able to get a hold of them. Is DVC clearing out the (many) years long wait list?

Yep, direct VGC sales!

Tracking resale on the OCRW site is borderline impossible due to the mediocre search/filtering functionality.

---

A brief year in review:

• Contracts started showing up in OCRW on May 15, 2023
• Through May 14, 2024 (a year), there have been approximately 666.3k points recorded in OCRW
  • This is ~20.5% of the total resort
  • Actual 'first year' sales are a bit higher due to delayed closings
• 727k points, a little over 22% of the resort, had been declared in the first two declarations (#1 prior to sales and #2 in very early sales)
  • A third declaration just appeared prior to the 1yr anniversary, on May 9, 2024. I don't know (yet?) how much has been declared
• Initial sales were extremely hot:
  • The peak 4-week rate was ~178k per 4 weeks. At that rate, VDH would have sold out in 1.4 years, or just a few months from now
    • One of those 4 weeks had just 7k points recorded...if just the peak week rate had been sustained VDH would have sold out a month ago
  • VDH had 12 individual days where more points were recorded than CFW's first full month
  • IIRC, during an earnings call Iger or the CFO shared that VDH set an initial sales record
• The current sales rate is much lower, on track to sell out in more like 10 years
  • (as an aside, so far May 2024 is not helping that...)
• Almost all Units in Units 1x and 2x are in the 'sell out' range, except 1A, 1I (one eye), and 2C
• There's a lot of delayed closings! Even with the base price increase on Feb 1, ~25% of the contracts recorded in April appeared to be sold using the pre-increase base price
• If I'm interpreting OCRW correctly, about 50-60% of contracts have been financed through Disney
• The non-accessible Grand Villa still isn't bookable with points, due to limited declarations
• 150pts has been the most popular contract size, by far, with 1460 deeds recorded, or about 33% of all deeds
  • 50pts has been the 2nd most popular, with 695 deeds (15.5% of deeds)
• 1,500pts is the largest deed sold so far, and there have been 2 of them!
  • And this is despite the Grand Villas being ineligible for any Favorite Weeks due to only 2 being built
• Favorite Weeks are selling, I see what appear to be a few each month (though I cannot confirm...)
• This has been a fun journey, I'm going to continue with monthly and ad hoc reporting, thanks for reading!

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yep, direct VGC sales!

Tracking resale on the OCRW site is borderline impossible due to the mediocre search/filtering functionality.

---

A brief year in review:

• Contracts started showing up in OCRW on May 15, 2023
• Through May 14, 2024 (a year), there have been approximately 666.3k points recorded in OCRW
  • This is ~20.5% of the total resort
  • Actual 'first year' sales are a bit higher due to delayed closings
• 727k points, a little over 22% of the resort, had been declared in the first two declarations (#1 prior to sales and #2 in very early sales)
  • A third declaration just appeared prior to the 1yr anniversary, on May 9, 2024. I don't know (yet?) how much has been declared
• Initial sales were extremely hot:
  • The peak 4-week rate was ~178k per 4 weeks. At that rate, VDH would have sold out in 1.4 years, or just a few months from now
    • One of those 4 weeks had just 7k points recorded...if just the peak week rate had been sustained VDH would have sold out a month ago
  • VDH had 12 individual days where more points were recorded than CFW's first full month
  • IIRC, during an earnings call Iger or the CFO shared that VDH set an initial sales record
• The current sales rate is much lower, on track to sell out in more like 10 years
  • (as an aside, so far May 2024 is not helping that...)
• Almost all Units in Units 1x and 2x are in the 'sell out' range, except 1A, 1I (one eye), and 2C
• There's a lot of delayed closings! Even with the base price increase on Feb 1, ~25% of the contracts recorded in April appeared to be sold using the pre-increase base price
• If I'm interpreting OCRW correctly, about 50-60% of contracts have been financed through Disney
• The non-accessible Grand Villa still isn't bookable with points, due to limited declarations
• 150pts has been the most popular contract size, by far, with 1460 deeds recorded, or about 33% of all deeds
  • 50pts has been the 2nd most popular, with 695 deeds (15.5% of deeds)
• 1,500pts is the largest deed sold so far, and there have been 2 of them!
  • And this is despite the Grand Villas being ineligible for any Favorite Weeks due to only 2 being built
• Favorite Weeks are selling, I see what appear to be a few each month (though I cannot confirm...)
• This has been a fun journey, I'm going to continue with monthly and ad hoc reporting, thanks for reading!

I am surprised that they didn’t declare all of the villas (including Grand) since there are so few of them to begin with.

 

[ehh]

Monthly update!

Total points recorded as of May 31st: ~678k points (20.75% of all points).
Points recorded in May: ~17.3k points.

A little over 17k points recorded in May, 17,349 by my estimates. Third lowest month by points, but a new low for the number of contracts (104).

Despite prices going up to $239/pt on Feb 1, still seeing a trickle of $230/pt contracts being recorded in May, with 5 of the 104 deeds being more likely to be $230 rather than $239, based on the recording tax paid. Oddly, there was a contract with $0 tax paid (at least that's what was recorded), and I'm not sure what to make of it.

At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 148 months, or 12.4 years from now...that's late 2036!

The April 1 price/incentive updates were our first indications that maybe DVD wants to pick up the pace a bit as 200+ point contracts are now available below pre-sales pricing, as long as you qualify for the Welcome Home incentive, but there wasn't a statistically-confident uptick in larger contracts in April. I think that changed in May, with a decent bump in 200+ pt contracts compared to March (similar number of contracts).

As of April 30th, ~22.3% of points were declared and at least ~20.8% of the resort has now been sold. It appears that DVD took the plunge on May 9 to declare more points, though I don't have the declaration details at this time (due to laziness...the process to mail a check to OCRW is too much for my millenial brain). Because I don't know what's part of the most recent declaration, I don't know how much breathing room they have before declaring more units currently.

The apparent declaration on May 9th is supported by the first Unit 3A deeds showing up on May 28.

As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.

Fun facts about May's sales:

Very few fun facts this month...May 2024 might be the most boring month yet! Largest contract was just 350 points and there was only one FW candidate: a 222-223pt contract that is likely a 222pt FW for W51 or W52 at a SV Deluxe Studio.

The most interesting things were the appearance of Unit 3A and a $0 tax contract (implying 0 points...).

Unit 2C was the top seller again, with over 85% of this month's points. I think all 1x and 2x Units, except 1A, have now appeared in recorded contracts. Unit 2B sales fell off to third place while 3A came in 2nd this month. There was also one 1E contract recorded this month.

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, 2A, and 2B. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in May:

• 104 contracts recorded
  • 40x 150pt contracts (41 the prior month)
  • 25x 200pt contracts (21 the prior month)
  • 9x 50pt contracts (16 the prior month)
  • 8x 100pt contracts (12 the prior month)
  • 7x 300pt contracts (9 the prior month)
  • 7x 250pt contracts (6 the prior month)
  • 8x other contracts (15 the prior month)
• 166.8pt average contract size in May
  • May had an average of 128.2pt
  • June had an average of 142.8pt
  • July had an average of 157.2pt
  • August had an average of 152.7pt
  • September had an average of 149.8pt
  • October had an average of 165.1pt
  • November had an average of 164.8pt
  • December had an average of 154.7pt
  • January 2024 had an average of 162.6pt
  • February 2024 had an average of 167.2pt, highest ever
  • March 2024 had an average of 153.1pt
  • April 2024 had an average of 166.6pt
• 350pt is largest contract in May (1x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 300pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (7x)
• Unit 2C was assigned the most (15.1k, 2nd most was 3A at 700)

Points recorded by date:

"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.




Points recorded by month:

 

[MartyParty]

Monthly update!

Total points recorded as of May 31st: ~678k points (20.75% of all points).
Points recorded in May: ~17.3k points.

A little over 17k points recorded in May, 17,349 by my estimates. Third lowest month by points, but a new low for the number of contracts (104).

Despite prices going up to $239/pt on Feb 1, still seeing a trickle of $230/pt contracts being recorded in May, with 5 of the 104 deeds being more likely to be $230 rather than $239, based on the recording tax paid. Oddly, there was a contract with $0 tax paid (at least that's what was recorded), and I'm not sure what to make of it.

At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 148 months, or 12.4 years from now...that's late 2036!

The April 1 price/incentive updates were our first indications that maybe DVD wants to pick up the pace a bit as 200+ point contracts are now available below pre-sales pricing, as long as you qualify for the Welcome Home incentive, but there wasn't a statistically-confident uptick in larger contracts in April. I think that changed in May, with a decent bump in 200+ pt contracts compared to March (similar number of contracts).

As of April 30th, ~22.3% of points were declared and at least ~20.8% of the resort has now been sold. It appears that DVD took the plunge on May 9 to declare more points, though I don't have the declaration details at this time (due to laziness...the process to mail a check to OCRW is too much for my millenial brain). Because I don't know what's part of the most recent declaration, I don't know how much breathing room they have before declaring more units currently.

The apparent declaration on May 9th is supported by the first Unit 3A deeds showing up on May 28.

As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.

Fun facts about May's sales:

Very few fun facts this month...May 2024 might be the most boring month yet! Largest contract was just 350 points and there was only one FW candidate: a 222-223pt contract that is likely a 222pt FW for W51 or W52 at a SV Deluxe Studio.

The most interesting things were the appearance of Unit 3A and a $0 tax contract (implying 0 points...).

Unit 2C was the top seller again, with over 85% of this month's points. I think all 1x and 2x Units, except 1A, have now appeared in recorded contracts. Unit 2B sales fell off to third place while 3A came in 2nd this month. There was also one 1E contract recorded this month.

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, 2A, and 2B. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in May:

• 104 contracts recorded
  • 40x 150pt contracts (41 the prior month)
  • 25x 200pt contracts (21 the prior month)
  • 9x 50pt contracts (16 the prior month)
  • 8x 100pt contracts (12 the prior month)
  • 7x 300pt contracts (9 the prior month)
  • 7x 250pt contracts (6 the prior month)
  • 8x other contracts (15 the prior month)
• 166.8pt average contract size in May
  • May had an average of 128.2pt
  • June had an average of 142.8pt
  • July had an average of 157.2pt
  • August had an average of 152.7pt
  • September had an average of 149.8pt
  • October had an average of 165.1pt
  • November had an average of 164.8pt
  • December had an average of 154.7pt
  • January 2024 had an average of 162.6pt
  • February 2024 had an average of 167.2pt, highest ever
  • March 2024 had an average of 153.1pt
  • April 2024 had an average of 166.6pt
• 350pt is largest contract in May (1x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 300pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (7x)
• Unit 2C was assigned the most (15.1k, 2nd most was 3A at 700)

Points recorded by date:
View attachment 868730
"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

View attachment 868732


Points recorded by month:
View attachment 868733

View attachment 868734


View attachment 868735

View attachment 868736

Wonderful analysis as always ehh! Enjoyed reading.

 

[superlarz]

Monthly update!

Total points recorded as of May 31st: ~678k points (20.75% of all points).
Points recorded in May: ~17.3k points.

A little over 17k points recorded in May, 17,349 by my estimates. Third lowest month by points, but a new low for the number of contracts (104).

Despite prices going up to $239/pt on Feb 1, still seeing a trickle of $230/pt contracts being recorded in May, with 5 of the 104 deeds being more likely to be $230 rather than $239, based on the recording tax paid. Oddly, there was a contract with $0 tax paid (at least that's what was recorded), and I'm not sure what to make of it.

At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 148 months, or 12.4 years from now...that's late 2036!

The April 1 price/incentive updates were our first indications that maybe DVD wants to pick up the pace a bit as 200+ point contracts are now available below pre-sales pricing, as long as you qualify for the Welcome Home incentive, but there wasn't a statistically-confident uptick in larger contracts in April. I think that changed in May, with a decent bump in 200+ pt contracts compared to March (similar number of contracts).

As of April 30th, ~22.3% of points were declared and at least ~20.8% of the resort has now been sold. It appears that DVD took the plunge on May 9 to declare more points, though I don't have the declaration details at this time (due to laziness...the process to mail a check to OCRW is too much for my millenial brain). Because I don't know what's part of the most recent declaration, I don't know how much breathing room they have before declaring more units currently.

The apparent declaration on May 9th is supported by the first Unit 3A deeds showing up on May 28.

As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.

Fun facts about May's sales:

Very few fun facts this month...May 2024 might be the most boring month yet! Largest contract was just 350 points and there was only one FW candidate: a 222-223pt contract that is likely a 222pt FW for W51 or W52 at a SV Deluxe Studio.

The most interesting things were the appearance of Unit 3A and a $0 tax contract (implying 0 points...).

Unit 2C was the top seller again, with over 85% of this month's points. I think all 1x and 2x Units, except 1A, have now appeared in recorded contracts. Unit 2B sales fell off to third place while 3A came in 2nd this month. There was also one 1E contract recorded this month.

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, 2A, and 2B. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in May:

• 104 contracts recorded
  • 40x 150pt contracts (41 the prior month)
  • 25x 200pt contracts (21 the prior month)
  • 9x 50pt contracts (16 the prior month)
  • 8x 100pt contracts (12 the prior month)
  • 7x 300pt contracts (9 the prior month)
  • 7x 250pt contracts (6 the prior month)
  • 8x other contracts (15 the prior month)
• 166.8pt average contract size in May
  • May had an average of 128.2pt
  • June had an average of 142.8pt
  • July had an average of 157.2pt
  • August had an average of 152.7pt
  • September had an average of 149.8pt
  • October had an average of 165.1pt
  • November had an average of 164.8pt
  • December had an average of 154.7pt
  • January 2024 had an average of 162.6pt
  • February 2024 had an average of 167.2pt, highest ever
  • March 2024 had an average of 153.1pt
  • April 2024 had an average of 166.6pt
• 350pt is largest contract in May (1x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 300pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (7x)
• Unit 2C was assigned the most (15.1k, 2nd most was 3A at 700)

Points recorded by date:
View attachment 868730
"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

View attachment 868732


Points recorded by month:
View attachment 868733

View attachment 868734


View attachment 868735

View attachment 868736

Thank you for the updates as always!

 

[ehh]

Monthly update!

Total points recorded as of June 30th: ~700k points (21.5% of all points).
Points recorded in June: ~24.7k points.

A little under 25k points recorded in June, 24,651 by my estimates. A little bit of a rebound! Highest since Feb 2024 (27.4k), which was likely influnced by a pre-price increase surge in late Jan. I wonder if it's a coincidence that the end-of-incentives period aligns with an uptick in sales. Do some buyers think Disney's pricing strategy is 'prices will increase until morale improves'?

Year over year, down a comical 137k points though. Oh the halcyon days of initial sales.

By my analysis, June was the first month where every contract recorded was at the base price of $239, which went into effect on Feb 1.

At the current rate, VDH will sell out in 104 months, or 8.6 years from now...that's early 2033! Though considering the rate of parks/resorts development, that might actually be a reasonable timeline for the 3rd Disneyland DVC resort being completed as part of DisneylandForever.

The April 1 price/incentive updates were our first indications that maybe DVD wanted to pick up the pace a bit as 200+ point contracts are now available below pre-sales pricing, as long as you qualify for the Welcome Home incentive, but there wasn't a statistically-confident uptick in larger contracts in April. I think that changed in May, with a decent bump in 200+ pt contracts compared to March (similar number of contracts). And it was confirmed in June, with 200+ pt contracts recording at a similar velocity as August 2023, a month with 51k points recorded.

As of April 30th, ~22.3% of points were declared and at least ~21.5% of the resort has now been sold. It appears that DVD took the plunge on May 9 to declare more points, though I don't have the declaration details at this time (due to laziness...the process to mail a check to OCRW is too much for my millenial brain). Because I don't know what's part of the most recent declaration, I don't know how much breathing room they have before declaring more units currently.

The apparent declaration on May 9th is supported by the first Unit 3A deeds showing up on May 28.

As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.

Fun facts about June's sales:

May was boring. June was less boring!

June set the record for highest pts/contract, at 179.9pt/contract. 2nd place is Feb 2024 at 167.2pt/contract.

The largest contract was 1000 points, and 2nd largest was 550. And someone bought 150 points split across 70pt and 80pt contracts...which child do they like 14% more?!

There wasn't much in terms of FW candidate this month, though.

Unit 3A, which only started appearing in May, was the most recorded unit. 2nd place was Unit 2C, which might have sales winding down.

And maybe only interesting to me: there were no apparent OCR (optical character recognition) issues in the OCRW (Orange County Recorder Works) data! Every contract had a sensible Unit number and tax amount associated for the first time in my entire time tracking VDH sales.

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, 2A, and 2B. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in June:

• 137 contracts recorded
  • 46x 150pt contracts (40 the prior month)
  • 37x 200pt contracts (25 the prior month)
  • 15x 250pt contracts (7 the prior month)
  • 13x 100pt contracts (8 the prior month)
  • 9x 50pt contracts (9 the prior month)
  • 6x 300pt contracts (7 the prior month)
  • 11x other contracts (8 the prior month)
• 179.9pt average contract size in June
  • May had an average of 128.2pt
  • June had an average of 142.8pt
  • July had an average of 157.2pt
  • August had an average of 152.7pt
  • September had an average of 149.8pt
  • October had an average of 165.1pt
  • November had an average of 164.8pt
  • December had an average of 154.7pt
  • January 2024 had an average of 162.6pt
  • February 2024 had an average of 167.2pt, highest ever
  • March 2024 had an average of 153.1pt
  • April 2024 had an average of 166.6pt
  • May 2024 had an average of 166.8pt
• 1000pt is largest contract in June (1x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 300pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (6x)
• Unit 3A was assigned the most (12k, 2nd most was 2C at 11.1k)

Points recorded by date:

"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.




Points recorded by month:

 

[pangyal]

Thank you for the update! We did purchase a FW in June and maybe this data will be helpful? It’s unit 3A for a standard studio in week 48. The total number of points on the contract is 161.

 

[VGCgroupie]

15x 250pt contracts (7 the prior month)

Me wondering if these 15 people realized 250pts is the same cost per point as 200.

 

[VGCgroupie]

And someone bought 150 points split across 70pt and 80pt contracts...which child do they like 14% more?!