Weekly Update!
Total points recorded to date:
~418k points
Points recorded last week (August 5 - August 11):
~9.2k points
Sell out date based on last week's rate of recorded points: July 2029
Last 4 weeks:
~58.3k points
Rolling 4 week average:
~14.6k points/wk
Sell out date based on last 4 weeks' rate of recorded points: May 2027
While it looked like things had settled into a 'steady state' of a little over 16k/wk, last week was a notable slowdown from even that. At last week's rate, only 41k points would be sold in a 4.5wk month, which is surely below expectations.
At the 4wk average rate of 14.6k/wk, VDH will sell out in ~195 weeks, or 3 years and 9 months, roughly May 2027. At 14.6k/wk, the current levels of declarations will last until early January 2024. I've previously detailed
why DVD may have only declared ~727k points (72 rooms), and I'm going to continue to watch for any sort of trajectory that may force them to declare more prior to Jan 1, 2024.
This is to say that while the 41k/month rate may not be what they want longterm, it may be beneficial short term if there were some errors/mistakes in forecasting demand. Will be very interesting to see how incentives are adjusted in September.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:
- 69 contracts recorded, the 2nd lowest week yet
- 23x 150pt contracts
- 11x 50pt contracts
- 9x 75pt contracts
- 6x 200pt contracts
- 5x 100pt contracts
- 15x other contracts
- 133.1pt average contract size last week
- Week one was 124.6pt average
- Week two was 130.9pt average
- Week three was 132.5pt average
- Week four was 108.1pt average
- Week five was 143.0pt average
- Week six was 146.6pt average
- Week seven was 150.4pt average
- Week eight was 165.5pt average
- Week nine was 158.9pt average
- Week ten was 169.2pt average
- Week eleven was 153.6pt average
- Week twelve was 161.4pt average
- 300pt is largest contract
- 50pt is smallest contract
- 300pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (4x)
- Unit 2A was assigned the most (3.8k, 2nd most was 1G at 1.5k)
- We are on sell-out watch for a few of the earliest Units: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1H
- 1B had no contracts recorded last week
- All of these Units are at fewer than 10k available points
Unit/date breakdown:
View attachment 785412
"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
View attachment 785413
whether you’ve purchased $30k or $100k you still only get 1 water bottle 
