VDH Opening

[take36]

Do I have any shot of being able to book VDH for a January trip....

Do I have any shot of being able to book VDH for a January trip....

She says everything is on schedule so stand by.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

She says everything is on schedule so stand by.

what does that even mean? That the agonizing lack of information being released by Disney is deliberate?

 

[SusieQ93]

what does that even mean? That the agonizing lack of information being released by Disney is deliberate?

Also what is the level of accuracy of information from a DVC guide do we think? A notch above bus driver? I’m kidding of course, but it seems like information from guides has been all over the place.

 

[ocdb8r1]

She says everything is on schedule so stand by.

What schedule?!?!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Also what is the level of accuracy of information from a DVC guide do we think? A notch above bus driver? I’m kidding of course, but it seems like information from guides has been all over the place.

Now now. Let's leave bus drivers out of this. I think they're honest folks,...unlike sleezy timeshare sales people who prey on the unwitting and desperate......

 

[take36]

Also what is the level of accuracy of information from a DVC guide do we think? A notch above bus driver? I’m kidding of course, but it seems like information from guides has been all over the place.

Well this is a guide that was outside the construction gate that seems to be getting a report or supervising? He had a dvc name tag but he might not be a guide. He is most likely referring to the construction itself. The woman gave me her number to call so she is probably the guide and was following his lead.

 

[Bmramaut]

Just got my resale contract loaded and now in the market for direct points. My guide (CA licensed) already knows and reached out to me today. I said we are waiting on DLT pricing announcement. We are adding RIV, VGF, or DLT for sure… @RoseGold argument for Disneyland was so convincing I’m holding off my add-on-itis until then.

 

[SusieQ93]

Just got my resale contract loaded and now in the market for direct points. My guide (CA licensed) already knows and reached out to me today. I said we are waiting on DLT pricing announcement. We are adding RIV, VGF, or DLT for sure… @RoseGold argument for Disneyland was so convincing I’m holding off my add-on-itis until then.

Curious what the convincing argument was. The long wait has had two effects on me:

1. I’m down to thinking I need half the points as I initially felt like I needed for VDH (so that’s good for me and my wallet anyway) although there’s a part of me that may want some Poly points when the new tower is done.

2. Wondering if I want to add on something else instead, but logically I think the 11 month advantage at Disneyland at least sometimes is going to be important for me, so sticking with VDH for now. If I could buy the exact points I want in resale at VGC, I would maybe go that route, but the shiny newness of VDH does appeal to me.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

but the shiny newness of VDH does appeal to me.

VGC hard refurb in 2024.....

 

[SusieQ93]

VGC hard refurb in 2024.....

I know…. It’s just still that I can’t buy the exact number of points I want/use year and the ease of buying direct does appeal to me more. I loved getting my points immediately and just doing a few docusigns and paying. As you may have guessed from my prior post, patience isn’t one of my strongest areas but if the perfect VGC contract came up, I’d think about it. A few pretty close to perfect ones came up a while back and I thought about it a bit, but struggled to justify the difference in price from what I think VDH will be and they got snapped up while I was thinking on it.

 

[SusieQ93]

I know…. It’s just still that I can’t buy the exact number of points I want/use year and the ease of buying direct does appeal to me more. I loved getting my points immediately and just doing a few docusigns and paying. As you may have guessed from my prior post, patience isn’t one of my strongest areas but if the perfect VGC contract came up, I’d think about it. A few pretty close to perfect ones came up a while back and I thought about it a bit, but struggled to justify the difference in price from what I think VDH will be and they got snapped up while I was thinking on it.

I should add those close to perfect contracts were stripped and spending more money and not even being able to use it right away was unappealing to me.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

1. I’m down to thinking I need half the points as I initially felt like I needed for VDH

I’m not saying you’re wrong, just saying to remember that VGC is more expensive in terms of points than any standard room at WDW. It’s about 2-3 more points per night than VGF Standard view rooms, across the year. So VDH could be a VGF level points suck and still be more points than any WDW standard room.

It might be points intensive is all I’m saying.

Ave. Points per night	VGF Std	VGC
Studio	21.6	23.4
1BR	43.8	46.0
2BR	60.3	63.2

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I know…. It’s just still that I can’t buy the exact number of points I want/use year and the ease of buying direct does appeal to me more. I loved getting my points immediately and just doing a few docusigns and paying. As you may have guessed from my prior post, patience isn’t one of my strongest areas but if the perfect VGC contract came up, I’d think about it. A few pretty close to perfect ones came up a while back and I thought about it a bit, but struggled to justify the difference in price from what I think VDH will be and they got snapped up while I was thinking on it.

They are two completely different products. Yes they're both in Disneyland. But the two resorts couldn't be more fundamentally different in terms of theming, location, and fanbase. I totally hear you about the ease of buying direct. VDH will also have 14 more years of contract life compared to VGC. But VGC's uniqueness and villa scarcity/availability cannot be matched, hence the high price it fetches on the resale market. I highly doubt VDH will compete with VGC in the resale market, especially if it will have resale restrictions, which is highly likely.

Now that I think about it, I think it's possible that DVD would deliberately delay VGC's refurbishment for as long as possible to boost VDH sales, which is in direct competition with VGC resale. As long as VGC stays old and dingy, it gives VDH a slight edge. I'm no conspiracy theorist but I can't look past Disney. Oh hell, who am I kidding. I AM totally a conspiracy theorist! lol.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I highly doubt VDH will compete with VGC in the resale market, especially if it will have resale restrictions,

If it does, resale owners of either one won’t be able to stay at the other.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

If it does, resale owners of either one won’t be able to stay at the other.

Sure, but I can still use my VGC resale at all of the O14. Not that I would, but I could!

 

[SusieQ93]

I’m not saying you’re wrong, just saying to remember that VGC is more expensive in terms of points than any standard room at WDW. It’s about 2-3 more points per night than VGF Standard view rooms, across the year. So VDH could be a VGF level points suck and still be fewer points than any WDW standard room.

It might be points intensive is all I’m saying.

Ave. Points per night	VGF Std	VGC
Studio	21.6	23.4
1BR	43.8	46.0
2BR	60.3	63.2

Oh yes, I’m expecting that for sure. I’ve just pared down how often I think we absolutely need to go on points at 11 months. I’m using the VGC point charts in my predictions but will adjust if needed when we eventually see point charts. I just realized with what we have at WDW already, I don’t want to have too much because we like vacationing elsewhere too. Especially my spouse wants to have room for vacations elsewhere

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Especially my spouse wants to have room for vacations elsewhere

This is blasphemy. Thou shall have no other.......vacations.....other than Disney! I think I read that somewhere in the Bible no?

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

This is blasphemy. Thou shall have no other.......vacations.....other than Disney! I think I read that somewhere in the Bible no?

The Boble.

 

[ehh]

My guess for room attainability, sorted into tiers (assuming full declaration, who knows how unevenly DVC might declare inventory during sales):

Walking only, year round (think AKV Value or Concierge studios):

• Garden Duo
• Garden Deluxe

Might need to walk, depends on season:

• Standard Duo
• Grand Villa
• 2 Bedroom
• Preferred Duo

Likely competitive at 11m:

• 1 Bedroom

Potentially competitive at 11m:

• Standard Deluxe

Likely available at 7m, depends on season:

• Preferred Deluxe

I'd like to tweak this based on some Riviera data that I've been looking into.

I think it's generally accepted these days that room types, in order of booking velocity (independent of inventory), are as follows:

1. Deluxe Studios
   • Tower/Duo Studios slot in here, based on limited data. Also doubt this is generally accepted.
2. 2BR
3. 1BR
4. GV

However, this does not appear to be the case at Riviera.

At Riviera, it appears that 1BR, especially Standard View, may actually be more popular than 2BR (caveat: if 2BRLO is unusually popular compared to 2BR it would also cause a data artifact that would look like 1BR being popular).

I don't know what the cause of this shift in popularity is. I suspect it's a combo of the points chart and upfront price inflation, where a CPI-adjusted buy-in buys less than it used to, but this is just a guess that is slightly supported by VGF2 data.

There's an additional element I'm surprised more people aren't talking about with VDH: VDH Deluxe Studios might not be great for families. We know Duo Studios won't be, but I wouldn't be surprised if the main gripe for Deluxe Studios after years of VDH ownership boils down to:

• Deluxe Studios only sleep 4
• Deluxe Studios have no tub (based on current info)
• Cheapest room that sleeps 5 or has a tub is the 1BR

Even DCL has tubs, so the lack of tubs in VDH Studios is really bizarre, in my opinion.

Anyway, with this new-to-me information about Riviera bookings in hand and combining it with expected VDH inventory levels, here's my new tiers for VDH:

Walking only, basically year round (think AKV Value or Concierge studios):

• Garden Duo
• Garden Deluxe

Might need to walk, depends on season:

• 1 Bedroom
• Grand Villa (there's only 2!)
• Standard Duo

Potentially competitive at 11m, depends on season:

• 2 Bedroom
• Standard Deluxe
• Preferred Duo

Usually available at 7m, depends on season:

• Preferred Deluxe

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I'd like to tweak this based on some Riviera data that I've been looking into.

I think it's generally accepted these days that room types, in order of booking velocity (independent of inventory), are as follows:

1. Deluxe Studios
   • Tower/Duo Studios slot in here, based on limited data. Also doubt this is generally accepted.
2. 2BR
3. 1BR
4. GV

However, this does not appear to be the case at Riviera.

At Riviera, it appears that 1BR, especially Standard View, may actually be more popular than 2BR (caveat: if 2BRLO is unusually popular compared to 2BR it would also cause a data artifact that would look like 1BR being popular).

I don't know what the cause of this shift in popularity is. I suspect it's a combo of the points chart and upfront price inflation, where a CPI-adjusted buy-in buys less than it used to, but this is just a guess that is slightly supported by VGF2 data.

There's an additional element I'm surprised more people aren't talking about with VDH: VDH Deluxe Studios might not be great for families. We know Duo Studios won't be, but I wouldn't be surprised if the main gripe for Deluxe Studios after years of VDH ownership boils down to:

• Deluxe Studios only sleep 4
• Deluxe Studios have no tub (based on current info)
• Cheapest room that sleeps 5 or has a tub is the 1BR

Even DCL has tubs, so the lack of tubs in VDH Studios is really bizarre, in my opinion.

Anyway, with this new-to-me information about Riviera bookings in hand and combining it with expected VDH inventory levels, here's my new tiers for VDH:

Walking only, basically year round (think AKV Value or Concierge studios):

• Garden Duo
• Garden Deluxe

Might need to walk, depends on season:

• 1 Bedroom
• Grand Villa (there's only 2!)
• Standard Duo

Potentially competitive at 11m, depends on season:

• 2 Bedroom
• Standard Deluxe
• Preferred Duo

Usually available at 7m, depends on season:

• Preferred Deluxe

I think the question isn’t will standard studios (if they break them into views, which I’m iffy on, because all the views are kinda bad) sell out at 11 months sometimes but rather how often will they make it to 7 months, and I think the answer will be a lot, unless there’s only a small number of them (which would make the existence of them even sillier).