VDH Opening

[AstroBlasters]

VGC hard refurb in 2024.....

We don’t know that for sure…

 

[SusieQ93]

They are two completely different products. Yes they're both in Disneyland. But the two resorts couldn't be more fundamentally different in terms of theming, location, and fanbase. I totally hear you about the ease of buying direct. VDH will also have 14 more years of contract life compared to VGC. But VGC's uniqueness and villa scarcity/availability cannot be matched, hence the high price it fetches on the resale market.

I def agree that they’re very different! I love VGC and we will prob still stay with cash sometimes. In terms of aesthetics, I love the mid-century modern look and the IP theming they’ve chosen for VDH. I know it’s not everyone’s jam, but I think it looks beautiful. Of course it won’t always be shiny and new and will go through the same cycle as all the resorts. But I give a slight edge to VDH in aesthetics just IMO. I love the style of VGC too though. Where VGC really stands out for me is proximity to the parks. But we like walking and the walk is through DTD which is quite pleasant. In WDW terms, VDH would be seen as super close to the parks as many others have pointed out. They’re both great products and given that I like both, the cost/inconvenience of resale makes me edge towards VDH. I 100% agree with you on the resale value. But I’m not thinking we will sell, and if we do, the fact we can and that it won’t be worthless is fine with me. Again, others have different opinions on this that are completely valid as well.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I'd like to tweak this based on some Riviera data that I've been looking into.

I think it's generally accepted these days that room types, in order of booking velocity (independent of inventory), are as follows:

1. Deluxe Studios
   • Tower/Duo Studios slot in here, based on limited data. Also doubt this is generally accepted.
2. 2BR
3. 1BR
4. GV

However, this does not appear to be the case at Riviera.

At Riviera, it appears that 1BR, especially Standard View, may actually be more popular than 2BR (caveat: if 2BRLO is unusually popular compared to 2BR it would also cause a data artifact that would look like 1BR being popular).

I don't know what the cause of this shift in popularity is. I suspect it's a combo of the points chart and upfront price inflation, where a CPI-adjusted buy-in buys less than it used to, but this is just a guess that is slightly supported by VGF2 data.

There's an additional element I'm surprised more people aren't talking about with VDH: VDH Deluxe Studios might not be great for families. We know Duo Studios won't be, but I wouldn't be surprised if the main gripe for Deluxe Studios after years of VDH ownership boils down to:

• Deluxe Studios only sleep 4
• Deluxe Studios have no tub (based on current info)
• Cheapest room that sleeps 5 or has a tub is the 1BR

Even DCL has tubs, so the lack of tubs in VDH Studios is really bizarre, in my opinion.

Anyway, with this new-to-me information about Riviera bookings in hand and combining it with expected VDH inventory levels, here's my new tiers for VDH:

Walking only, basically year round (think AKV Value or Concierge studios):

• Garden Duo
• Garden Deluxe

Might need to walk, depends on season:

• 1 Bedroom
• Grand Villa (there's only 2!)
• Standard Duo

Potentially competitive at 11m, depends on season:

• 2 Bedroom
• Standard Deluxe
• Preferred Duo

Usually available at 7m, depends on season:

• Preferred Deluxe

I can totally buy this. I think VDH Preferred Deluxe Studios will be widely available at 7 months. Or it's wishful thinking on my part.

 

[SusieQ93]

I can totally buy this. I think VDH Preferred Deluxe Studios will be widely available at 7 months. Or it's wishful thinking on my part.

That’s another reason why I’ve pared down my point needs. I don’t think we’ll be completely shut out at 7 months like VGC. That may be a gamble on my part, but also why I’m buying enough to have an 11 month advantage guaranteed sometimes and we can fill in with our WDW points when we can.

 

[ehh]

I think the question isn’t will standard studios (if they break them into views, which I’m iffy on, because all the views are kinda bad) sell out at 11 months sometimes but rather how often will they make it to 7 months, and I think the answer will be a lot, unless there’s only a small number of them (which would make the existence of them even sillier).

Agree that all the views are kind of bad. If enough others agree then the cheapest rooms will definitely go first, and that's SV Deluxe Studios

There might be times of year where a trickle of SV Deluxe Studios make it to 7m, but I wouldn't count on it. Based on floor plans there will be ~76 SV vs. ~170 Preferred View Deluxe Studios.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Agree that all the views are kind of bad. If enough others agree then the cheapest rooms will definitely go first, and that's SV Deluxe Studios

There might be times of year where a trickle of SV Deluxe Studios make it to 7m, but I wouldn't count on it. Based on floor plans there will be ~76 SV vs. ~170 Preferred View Deluxe Studios.

That is surprisingly a lot of SV studios. I wonder what the ratio is at Riviera. It's ironic that SV rooms at Riviera are not only cheaper in points, but better in actual views. I don't ever hope to book a SV studio or 2BR at Riviera at 7 months.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Based on floor plans there will be ~76 SV vs. ~170 Preferred View Deluxe Studios

That’s a guess based on your assessment of view quality, right?

 

[ehh]

That is surprisingly a lot of SV studios. I wonder what the ratio is at Riviera. It's ironic that SV rooms at Riviera are not only cheaper in points, but better in actual views. I don't ever hope to book a SV studio or 2BR at Riviera at 7 months.

Riviera will probably be 67 SV vs. 119 PV whenever it's fully declared. 47 SV and 79 PV are in inventory now.

Riviera's sin is the massive points difference between the categories. On average 25% more for PV. I don't expect such a gap at VDH based on cash rates (13% gap in cash rates).

That’s a guess based on your assessment of view quality, right?

Yeah, simply based on whether it has a pool view. Can be rephrased as "76 with no pool view and 170 with a pool view".

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Riviera will probably be 67 SV vs. 119 PV whenever it's fully declared. 47 SV and 79 PV are in inventory now

The SV vs PV breakdown was finalized when they published their launch documents. I don’t have it handy but it’s published in this forum somewhere. If you wanted to lose your eyesight and your sanity you could take the descriptions of each “unit” from their published information and calculate the points and thus the views of each one, but someone else here did that in 2019..

 

[ehh]

The SV vs PV breakdown was finalized when they published their launch documents. I don’t have it handy but it’s published in this forum somewhere. If you wanted to lose your eyesight and your sanity you could take the descriptions of each “unit” from their published information and calculate the points and thus the views of each one, but someone else here did that in 2019..

I have the 67 (9ded, 58LO) vs 119 (29ded, 90LO) in my spreadsheet but I forget the provenance of it, hence the "probably" qualifier. I should track down where I got the info. Should be close. I'm positive of the 47/79 in inventory currently though.

 

[vacay77]

Just got my resale contract loaded and now in the market for direct points. My guide (CA licensed) already knows and reached out to me today. I said we are waiting on DLT pricing announcement. We are adding RIV, VGF, or DLT for sure… @RoseGold argument for Disneyland was so convincing I’m holding off my add-on-itis until then.

I’m in a similar quandary. Our home resort is VGC and we had decided to forego adding on, then we went to Disney World in March and took a DVC tour . Now I really want to add on - the guide was strongly pitching VGF, which appeals to us. But Disneyland Tower is still looming.

Does everyone generally think Disneyland Tower will cost more than VGF? We nixed Riviera; even though we loved it, the resale restrictions give us pause.

 

[ehh]

I’m in a similar quandary. Our home resort is VGC and we had decided to forego adding on, then we went to Disney World in March and took a DVC tour . Now I really want to add on - the guide was strongly pitching VGF, which appeals to us. But Disneyland Tower is still looming.

Does everyone generally think Disneyland Tower will cost more than VGF? We nixed Riviera; even though we loved it, the resale restrictions give us pause.

Are you asking about upfront buy-in cost per point? Or points per night cost?

 

[vacay77]

Are you asking about upfront buy-in cost per point? Or points per night cost?

Upfront buy-in cost per point….if we bought VGF, we’d get the Disney Visa incentive……for the amount of points we’d purchase, it would cost us around $214/point.

 

[ehh]

Upfront buy-in cost per point….if we bought VGF, we’d get the Disney Visa incentive……for the amount of points we’d purchase, it would cost us around $214/point.

The base cost per point will very likely be the same at all actively sold resorts (AUL, RIV, VGF, and VDH). That may or may not increase before VDH goes on sale.

The incentives offered will likely vary by resort. It's unknown what any incentives will be in advance, but it would be reasonable for RIV, VGF, and VDH to be fairly similar to each other, within a few dollars at most point levels. AUL has occasionally had more aggressive incentives.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I’m in a similar quandary. Our home resort is VGC and we had decided to forego adding on, then we went to Disney World in March and took a DVC tour . Now I really want to add on - the guide was strongly pitching VGF, which appeals to us. But Disneyland Tower is still looming.

Does everyone generally think Disneyland Tower will cost more than VGF? We nixed Riviera; even though we loved it, the resale restrictions give us pause.

I think it’s very likely (no guarantees!) that Disneyland Hotel DVC will launch its presale with a lower NET price per point (with incentives) than VGF has today for current DVC owners. What the general public will get will probably depend on how the DVC owner presale goes.

 

[ehh]

I think it’s very likely (no guarantees!) that Disneyland Hotel DVC will launch its presale with a lower NET price per point (with incentives) than VGF has today for current DVC owners. What the general public will get will probably depend on how the DVC owner presale goes.

The more sales continue on at their recent slow pace, the more likely this is, I think.

 

[Chili327]

That’s another reason why I’ve pared down my point needs. I don’t think we’ll be completely shut out at 7 months like VGC.

I agree, I think it’ll be quite a while before 7months wont be available.

 

[vacay77]

I think it’s very likely (no guarantees!) that Disneyland Hotel DVC will launch its presale with a lower NET price per point (with incentives) than VGF has today for current DVC owners. What the general public will get will probably depend on how the DVC owner presale goes.

Now I really am on the fence . I kept asking the guide if he had any news on the Disneyland Hotel and he said no.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I know…. It’s just still that I can’t buy the exact number of points I want/use year and the ease of buying direct does appeal to me more. I loved getting my points immediately and just doing a few docusigns and paying. As you may have guessed from my prior post, patience isn’t one of my strongest areas but if the perfect VGC contract came up, I’d think about it. A few pretty close to perfect ones came up a while back and I thought about it a bit, but struggled to justify the difference in price from what I think VDH will be and they got snapped up while I was thinking on it.

I'm just curious what the perfect VGC contract would be for you?

They are two completely different products. Yes they're both in Disneyland. But the two resorts couldn't be more fundamentally different in terms of theming, location, and fanbase. I totally hear you about the ease of buying direct. VDH will also have 14 more years of contract life compared to VGC. But VGC's uniqueness and villa scarcity/availability cannot be matched, hence the high price it fetches on the resale market. I highly doubt VDH will compete with VGC in the resale market, especially if it will have resale restrictions, which is highly likely.

Now that I think about it, I think it's possible that DVD would deliberately delay VGC's refurbishment for as long as possible to boost VDH sales, which is in direct competition with VGC resale. As long as VGC stays old and dingy, it gives VDH a slight edge. I'm no conspiracy theorist but I can't look past Disney. Oh hell, who am I kidding. I AM totally a conspiracy theorist! lol.

It worries me that they haven't officially announced the VGC refurb. I hope it's still going to be 2024. It definitely won't be done before our June 2024 trip but hopefully by our December 2025 one it will be finished!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I'm just curious what the perfect VGC contract would be for you?



It worries me that they haven't officially announced the VGC refurb. I hope it's still going to be 2024. It definitely won't be done before our June 2024 trip but hopefully by our December 2025 one it will be finished!

I’m not going to bank on staying in a refurbished VGC room until 2025