VDH Opening

[DonMacGregor]

Launching a new DVC tower during a mid-size bank run…. should be an interesting week!

Meh, the big boys didn't move too much (Chase down .62%, others +/- 3%), and the S&P is up 40 points (barely up, but still up).

 

[ehh]

That's actually a zero chance. The charts are released for 2024 and will stay that way.

DVC has revised published points charts in the past (pretty recently, actually): https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...-dvc-points-charts-revised-for-september-2022.

AFAIK, they don't revise points charts once bookings start for the time range, but in the example above they have revised points charts after publish and after bookings for the Calendar Year have started.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Meh, the big boys didn't move too much (Chase down .62%, others +/- 3%), and the S&P is up 40 points (barely up, but still up).

Still, the bank run is big news that may at the least be a distractor when people think about whether they can afford a luxury purchase... and it might give some people pause on spending a ton of money rn. I'm not saying it's hugely important, just that it's reasonable to think it could be a factor on DVC deciding the timing of their announcements.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Still, the bank run is big news that may at the least be a distractor when people think about whether they can afford a luxury purchase... and it might give some people pause on spending a ton of money rn. I'm not saying it's hugely important, just that it's reasonable to think it could be a factor on DVC deciding the timing of their announcements.

I do agree with that.

 

[Chili327]

We haven’t heard if resale restrictions will apply yet for VDH or Poly 2.

Why wouldn't they apply the restrictions to VDH.??

I hope they don't apply the restrictions, because it would make VDH a much better value buying direct, but if the restrictions apply, i don't see the perk in buying direct, so why wouldn't I just wait a year & buy resale (& save $50+pp).

 

[limace]

We just don’t know yet-they did at RIV, they did not at the VGF expansion-which of course is a different beast-and we don’t know yet at Poly2. My bet is that yes, VDH will be restricted but we don’t know one way or the other. And I’m with you, it doesn’t matter a lot to me as I’d only use those points there regardless so cheap resale would be great.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

DVC has revised published points charts in the past (pretty recently, actually): https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...-dvc-points-charts-revised-for-september-2022.

AFAIK, they don't revise points charts once bookings start for the time range, but in the example above they have revised points charts after publish and after bookings for the Calendar Year have started.

That was because of very different reasons. They screwed up and maybe even had intentionally attempted to add points to the system. Either way they were called out on it. Nothing will happen with the VGC point charts just because they are opening a new DVC.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Why wouldn't they apply the restrictions to VDH.??

I hope they don't apply the restrictions, because it would make VDH a much better value buying direct, but if the restrictions apply, i don't see the perk in buying direct, so why I wouldn't just wait a year & buy resale (& save $50+pp).

You can save with resale regardless of the restrictions (and I fully expect them to be there). I don't think the possible restrictions will depress resale prices significantly - at RVA the bottom never fell out on resale contracts as some predicted. We won't know the full impact of resale restrictions there until the resort sells out anyway. At VDH, many buyers will likely be looking to own there only to use the points there, which may help resale prices stay a little higher than average. But resale will be less expensive while the resort is in active sales regardless because otherwise people would just buy direct.

So, if none of the benefits of direct such as they are appealing to you and you can wait a year to buy resale, it's certainly going to save you money.

 

[Chili327]

We just don’t know yet-they did at RIV, they did not at the VGF expansion-which of course is a different beast-and we don’t know yet at Poly2. My bet is that yes, VDH will be restricted but we don’t know one way or the other. And I’m with you, it doesn’t matter a lot to me as I’d only use those points there regardless so cheap resale would be great.

Yea, id be surprised if they added restrictions to Poly2 (probably more hassle & confusing to bother. lol)
I'm thinking any expansion most likely wouldn't get the restrictions, & any new location would... unless they start seeing that the restrictions are hindering sales, then they would/could remove them partially, if not completely.

 

[AMTaco]

So, if none of the benefits of direct such as they are appealing to you and you can wait a year to buy resale, it's certainly going to save you money.

I’m open to resale but not familiar with resale inventory for newer properties. Would there typically be much availability on the resale market after one year?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I’m open to resale but not familiar with resale inventory for newer properties. Would there typically be much availability on the resale market after one year?

no

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I’m open to resale but not familiar with resale inventory for newer properties. Would there typically be much availability on the resale market after one year?

Very few at first, usually something pretty bad has to happen for a new owner to sell that quickly as they surely haven't broken even. And to sell while the resort is in active sales means competing with direct. But by a year out there will be a few contracts out there. By 2-3 yrs there will be more. RVA opened a bit over 3 yrs ago and there are over a couple dozen contacts listed rn.

 

[Chili327]

RVA opened a bit over 3 yrs ago and there are over a couple dozen contacts listed rn.

Yep, I see 36 currently.

 

[DVCsloth]

I kind of want to buy a small contract there since I have never been and always wanted to visit DL. Probably mostly use it as SAP so it probably won't happen, but you never know.

 

[nlenguyen]

On Wednesday I really want to call and just see what the cash rates are going to be for our upcoming trip

 

[AustinL]

Still, the bank run is big news that may at the least be a distractor when people think about whether they can afford a luxury purchase... and it might give some people pause on spending a ton of money rn. I'm not saying it's hugely important, just that it's reasonable to think it could be a factor on DVC deciding the timing of their announcements.

2 months ago I was ready to buy. Today I’m a lot more reserved about the idea and probably leaning away from buying anytime soon. Seeing financial institutions collapse made me do some soul searching.

I’m not opposed to buying resale contracts where if things turn for me personally (which thank god they haven’t) the loss wouldn’t be as painful.

My wife was born in Souther Cal, still has family there and we got engaged at Disneyland so it has a soft spot in our hearts. I had never thought about buying on the west coast until they announced runDisney races coming back at DL and the VDH, but waiting makes more sense for us at this time.

 

[nalabear]

We just don’t know yet-they did at RIV, they did not at the VGF expansion-which of course is a different beast-and we don’t know yet at Poly2. My bet is that yes, VDH will be restricted but we don’t know one way or the other. And I’m with you, it doesn’t matter a lot to me as I’d only use those points there regardless so cheap resale would be great.

VDH resale prices may not be too much different than direct for the very reason people don't care on restrictions for VDH. They will use only at DLR anyways. That's very different from Riviera-WDW. The only caveat would be West coast owners May prefer flexibility of VDH+Aulani so there is that differential with the restrictions if in play.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

2 months ago I was ready to buy. Today I’m a lot more reserved about the idea and probably leaning away from buying anytime soon. Seeing financial institutions collapse made me do some soul searching.

I’m not opposed to buying resale contracts where if things turn for me personally (which thank god they haven’t) the loss wouldn’t be as painful.

My wife was born in Souther Cal, still has family there and we got engaged at Disneyland so it has a soft spot in our hearts. I had never thought about buying on the west coast until they announced runDisney races coming back at DL and the VDH, but waiting makes more sense for us at this time.

I've been feeling the same way lately, actually. I'm wondering if I should just save those funds to have a healthier cushion if the economy is looking uncertain rn.

Also, since I just want a small contract and usually incentives start at higher point purchases, I feel like I have time to decide until the next point increase so long as I "tour" before the increase.

 

[nalabear]

I really wonder how DVC and VDH in particular is going to do with the current environment. This certainly isn't 2008 implosion and housing crisis with VGC opening in 2009 right in the middle of it all.

But it is inflation threatening; real estate stagnant; and 15th largest west coast bank failing and Fed probably more cautious on interest rate raising to not spook bank runs further.

Will Disney open VDH with higher and how will incentives look like so jazz sales and not be PR nightmare of introducing more incentives a month later if weak sales on DVC and VDH itself? Hard choices.

If I were Disney; wait another few weeks (DON"T DO THAT!) and see cash price bookings before VDH sales announcement. --- I truly hope that they don't do this!

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

If I were Disney; wait another few weeks (DON"T DO THAT!) and see cash price bookings before VDH sales announcement. --- I truly hope that they don't do this!

Yup, that's probably what's going to happen...