VDH Opening

[nalabear]

There's local like park filling after 5pm folk
There's also local AP/MK Ca/NV/AZ folk that visit 2-5 times a year -- -- and there's A LOT of those holders. these are the DVC targets.

We typically do day trips to get our fixes until we want to stay overnight for evening events and then stay DVC for those.

 

[zavandor]

I wonder how many room categories they will have. Main hotel pool view, DVC pool view, and Standard view?

I’m looking at a travel date of 3/22 to 3/28 and RIV preferred view rooms are at about a 21% premium to standard view rooms. Grand Cal would cost the same as a RIV preferred view.

That’s enough of a point delta where I could buy 44 less points for an every other year 1BD or 2BD strategy. At $205 per point with incentives that would save $9k upfront. Of course, lower cost rooms will be where the dog fight is.

If they don't make the few studios and studuos with balcony a separate booking category it's a recipe for a lot of entitled people having meltdowns at checkin.

 

[BrianLo]

There is some opportunity for some creative points chart math for sure. I do think that's how they price this like RIV. Standard views costs come in below VGC, preferred the same.

It's also interesting they seemingly are keeping the minimum 150 buy-in. It's so heavy on Studios. Anyone know the typical length of stay at VGC? I can't imagine VDH will have its majority of stays lasting a week.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

There is some opportunity for some creative points chart math for sure. I do think that's how they price this like RIV. Standard views costs come in below VGC, preferred the same.

It's also interesting they seemingly are keeping the minimum 150 buy-in. It's so heavy on Studios. Anyone know the typical length of stay at VGC? I can't imagine VDH will have its majority of stays lasting a week.

2-3 days is the typical stay. And lots will go over the weekend. So do need to factor in those Fr/Sat points!

 

[ehh]

I also asked about the point chart and said that my goal at a minimum was to be able to stay 4 to 5 nights in the spring in a 2BR for 200 points and he said that would be tough and said that he was looking at Riviera as a model. Not saying that he was confirming that it was going to be like Riviera, but it sounded like our guesses that it might be aligned wont be too far off.

That's a very interesting hint from your guide, not that I exactly expect them to know but they might know a bit more directionally than us. I think a lot of it is going to hinge on the definition of "Spring". More importantly, what do you define as "Spring"?

I expect VDH to have the same seasons as VGC and VGC's point variation for 4 nights in a 2BR is as follows:

• March 21 - March 30 (beginning of spring, DVC season begins 2/26, VGC season 3 of 4): 280 - 316 depending on how many weekend nights
• March 31 - April 15 (VGC peak season): 344 - 388, depending on how many weekend nights
• April 16 - June 21+ (end of Spring, not end of DVC season, VGC season 2 of 4): 208 - 234 depending on how many weekend nights

Very wide variation here, from 208 to 388, depending on the dates. Nothing that gets to 200pts though, let alone for 5 nights or including a weekend.

WDW has different 'Spring' seasons though. Using 2BR Riviera SV and PV here:

• March 21 - April 1 (beginning of spring, WDW Season 6 of 7): 224 - 242 for SV, 284 - 300 for PV
• April 2 - April 9 (WDW Peak Season): 308 - 334 for SV, 352 - 382 for PV
• April 10 - April 30 (WDW Season 6 again): 224 - 242 for SV, 284 - 300 for PV
• May 1 - May 14 (WDW Season 2): 176 - 186 for SV, 208 - 226 for PV
• May 15 - June 10 (WDW Season 3): 188 - 200 for SV, 220 - 244 for PV
• June 10 - June 21+ (WDW Season 4): 200 - 218 for SV, 236 - 258 for PV

Another very wide variation here, from 176 to 334 for SV or 208 to 382 for PV, depending on the dates.

I think there is good news for you here. Looks like RIV PV and VGC seem to have a very similar min/max over 'Spring'. Min is exactly the same and max is within 6pts.

They're also really close over the course of the year: in 2023 calendar+points chart it's a weekly average of 448pts for RIV PV and 444pts for VGC. So if there is a similar-ish SV/PV split at VDH as there is at RIV and if points charts are roughly the same (but with VGC seasons), there might be 'SV' VDH 2BR that you can get in calendar Spring for 4 or even 5 nights at or below 200pts. This is based on being able to do this at RIV, where you can get 5 weekday nights in early May for 195pts in a SV.

But it really all depends on when in Spring you wanted to travel. Even OKW 2BR are up to 244pts for 4 nights in peak Spring.

And of course the views matter as well. It looks like all the balcony rooms have a pool view of some sort and are likely to be a premium view.

 

[BrianLo]

2-3 days is the typical stay. And lots will go over the weekend. So do need to factor in those Fr/Sat points!

I normally do not subscribe to 1-2 bedrooms selling out faster than Studios concerns that we hear nearly every time a new product launches. Given the mix though, most new buyers even if they intended for a studio stays; may have enough for an annual long weekend in a 2-bedroom. That might prove interesting.

150 points is also going to be quite interesting in terms of Duo studio accommodations, but maybe that's the point. Get an annual pass and having 10-15 nights a year to spread around to your leisure.

I suspect there will be a healthy number of existing member add ons for smaller contracts though, even if it's a small drop in the overall lifetime sales.

 

[ehh]

Regarding 1BR/2BR inventory being tight for VDH, I think VGF+VGF2 is illustrative here with some of the booking patterns we've seen.

VGF+VGF2 has the following points distribution based on LO usage:

	0% Lockoff usage	50% Lockoff usage	100% Lockoff usage
Studios + Resort Studios	41.1%	45.2%	49.1%
1 Bedrooms	0%	9.3%	18.4%
2 Bedrooms	51.5%	38.2%	25.2%
Grand Villas	7.4%	7.3%	7.2%

And the following room count distribution based on LO usage:

	0% Lockoff usage	50% Lockoff usage	100% Lockoff usage
Studios + Resort Studios	66.7%	69.1%	71.2%
1 Bedrooms	0%	7.4%	13.5%
2 Bedrooms	31.3%	21.9%	13.5%
Grand Villas	2%	1.9%	1.7%

Right now my casual observations of VGF are: Resort Studios are the most available of all the rooms, but maybe only slightly. Deluxe Studio/2BRLO are the hardest, then 1BR, then 2BR, and RS are the easiest. Some of that is habit as the RS are newer (and different in important ways) and OG buyers bought for the existing DS, 1BR, 2BR, and GV. Maybe this changes as VGF2 sales progress.

But generally, if the ideal is that all categories run out of inventory simultaneously, VGF might be pretty close to this, but it would not be unfair to describe it as "Studio heavy" after the addition of VGF2.

Based on info released about the distribution of the 350 VDH rooms so far (38 Duos, 253 dedicated Studios, 0/1 dedicated 1BR, 20 dedicated 2BR, 18/19 2BRLO, and 2 GV), if we assume points charts similar to VGC (in terms of point ratios between categories, season, etc.) and throw in Duos being 80% of the points of Deluxe Studios (based on RIV), then we get an approximate points distribution based on LO usage:

	0% Lockoff usage	50% Lockoff usage	100% Lockoff usage
Duo Studios	7.6%	7.6%	7.5%
Deluxe Studios	63.4%	65.2%	67.1%
1 Bedrooms	0.5%	4.9%	9.2%
2 Bedrooms	25.7%	19.5%	13.4%
Grand Villas	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%

And the following approximate room count distribution based on LO usage:

	0% Lockoff usage	50% Lockoff usage	100% Lockoff usage
Duo Studios	11.4%	11.1%	10.9%
Deluxe Studios	76.2%	76.8%	77.4%
1 Bedrooms	0.3%	2.9%	5.1%
2 Bedrooms	11.4%	8.5%	5.7%
Grand Villas	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%

Compared to VGF+VGF2, VDH has roughly half the points presence in 1BR/2BR if assuming nearly full LO splitting (DS are very popular at VGF, so I think this is a reasonable assumption). In terms of points that basically means it goes from a roughly 1:1 split at VGF between studios vs. bigger to roughly 3:1 at VDH.

The jump from 1:1 (which is behaving slightly 'Studio heavy') to 3:1 is dramatic. DVC Management is really banking on studio variations being the massive favorite at VDH, with a 3x relative points booking velocity compared to larger villas despite being a fraction of the points per night.

Based on rooms, 87-88% of all rooms booked will be studio variations, a roughly 7:1 - 7.5:1 ratio. VGF's Studio:Villa room ratio is roughly 2.5:1 at full LO splitting.

Long story short, DVC management took a calculated gamble to go so heavy with studio-variation rooms. If there is higher than anticipated demand for 1BR+ Villas at VDH, booking them could be unusually competitive.

Personally, we're mostly studio people but are actually considering buying VDH for one 1BR stay per year as it will allow to to shift all of our VGC stays from studio to 1BR. I hope we're the only ones.

 

[Cfabar1]

The DVC product has changed significantly from the original premise of “The Disney Vacation Club” now called “old key west”…. They are really pushing the studio angle more and more and the “pay for your hotel room upfront” angle as well… There have been some pros to this - in the old days choice locations like VDH and VGF were not available.

I am very curious to see the points chart. Do we know how many points are being deeded and the room count? That will be helpful in anticipating where it goes…. I might buy a small contract just to know I have access in California, as right now Florida owners are basically blocked out of staying in Cali.

 

[nalabear]

Perhaps they are looking at VGC booking. Studios go WAY faster than 1BR at x2 costs with limited additional space outside the kitchen. For much of DLR visits, the abundance of food in the parks and DTD attached really lowers the need for a kitchen.

So I see much more benefit in connecting studios to house 8 people than a 2BRLO or 1BR+studio for what DLR stays typically run 2-3 days and not the more typical 5days+ where having a kitchen really does make it a nice center of operations.

 

[ehh]

I am very curious to see the points chart. Do we know how many points are being deeded and the room count? That will be helpful in anticipating where it goes…. I might buy a small contract just to know I have access in California, as right now Florida owners are basically blocked out of staying in Cali.

We know room count: 350. Distribution from earlier documents is:

• 38 Duos
• 253 dedicated Studios
• 0/1 dedicated 1BR
• 20 dedicated 2BR
• 18/19 2BRLO
• 2 GV

Assuming the average room (after accounting for view category) in each room category has the same number of points per night as its counterpart in VGC and they make it bookable for 365/366 days in a year, VDH will have around 3.4mil points at 0% LO splitting.

If the average room is fewer points per night than VGC, scale that 3.4mil down to your best estimate.

 

[ehh]

Perhaps they are looking at VGC booking. Studios go WAY faster than 1BR at x2 costs with limited additional space outside the kitchen. For much of DLR visits, the abundance of food in the parks and DTD attached really lowers the need for a kitchen.

So I see much more benefit in connecting studios to house 8 people than a 2BRLO or 1BR+studio for what DLR stays typically run 2-3 days and not the more typical 5days+ where having a kitchen really does make it a nice center of operations.

VGC Studios do not book 7-8x faster than 1BR, 2BR and GV combined.

VDH having connecting Studios would be a great option to mitigate potential 1BR+ demand. Have they announced that?

 

[Brian Noble]

They are really pushing the studio angle more and more

I don’t think they are pushing it so much as capitulating to what owners are actually doing.

 

[paslaugh]

The DVC product has changed significantly from the original premise of “The Disney Vacation Club” now called “old key west”…. They are really pushing the studio angle more and more and the “pay for your hotel room upfront” angle as well… There have been some pros to this - in the old days choice locations like VDH and VGF were not available.

I think you can thank the point chart bloat for this. I would love to stay in larger accommodations but can only cost justify it at OKW/SSR/AKV/BLT standard. Point cost per guest is always going to be lowest for a studio when 1BR sometimes cost double the points and two studios are cheaper to book the 2BRs.

 

[gmi3804]

In college, we referred to TP as "white gold," because that's what it was worth when you didn't have any. We had about 45-50 guys living in one (large) house, and ordered it by the pallet. When it arrived, you could hear the cries from afar: "WHITE GOLD!"

I still call it white gold to this day.

My first two years at Marquette, I lived in a nice dorm which was a former hotel (The Beatles stayed there when they played Milwaukee!), with private baths in each room. They supplied TP at the front desk, which still didn't keep people from waiting until the last minute to get more. If we saw people in the elevator with TP, we teased them that they must REALLY had to go! Yeah, we were a mature lot. I really haven't changed much in the 40 years since.

 

[Chili327]

I don’t think they are pushing it so much as capitulating to what owners are actually doing.

Yea, definitely, its not a bed space thing its a money thing. Studios (cheapest) are what sell first, and they’re even testing the waters with duos. (DL being only 2 parks, they’ll probably do better than at RIV)

 

[NVDISFamily]

More importantly, what do you define as "Spring"?

I’m not sure. For us it could vary a lot between March, or April, perhaps even May many years from now. My work is somewhat seasonal in nature so Jan and Feb trips would be hard to do and anything in December or earlier will likely be at VGC. We don’t mind taking the kids out of school for a few days if needed to adjust trip outside of the normal peak crazy seasons that cost a bit less on the points and we’ll likely go Sun to Thursday.

In the end it was a nice way of telling my guide that I’m still interested but only if the point chart is reasonable. I’m more than happy to buy 250 or even 300 points if the charts and incentives align. If they don’t then more VGC resale or CCV points would be the better buy for us. So excited to learn more soon…

 

[Brian Noble]

Point cost per guest

This is a common refrain, and @paslaugh is in good company with many (many!) other DVC owners.

What's interesting is that this doesn't seem to be how other timeshare owners think. And that's not because of the price. Marriott is at a similar price point, but the TUG folks in that system are not rushing to save points. That's even more remarkable given that the folks on TUG tend to be frugal lot. They'll take a studio if they have to, but usually they are looking for a larger unit for more comfort.

I suspect at least part of this is the way that Disney assigned points to their units. In DVC, the 1BR is usually about double the cost of a studio. At SSR, the "maximum reallocation" values (where every night of the year costs the same) are: 16 points for a studio, 32 for a 1BR, and 41 for a 2BR. Those ratios (1::2::2.5) are reasonably consistent across the entire system.

That's very unusual. At Marriott's Grande Vista, the ratios are roughly: 1::1.35::2.2. At Harbour Lake it is 1::1.4::2.3

Many Wyndham resorts don't even have studios; instead the 2BR lockoffs are "large" and "small" 1BRs, where the large side has a fulll kitchen but the small side has a kitchenette with a stove top, but maybe no oven. In some of them, the "small" 1BR has the full complement of apartment-sized appliances. At one of the few I could find, the ratio was 1::1.1::1.5.

So in those, even though the studio and the 1BR typically sleep the same number of guests, the "cost per guest" is not that dramatically different, making the extra amenities of the 1BR more appealing.

In some ways, I think OKW's relative point assignment was DVC's "original sin." Had those been more like the valuations other timeshare systems came up with, DVC might look very different today.

 

[nlenguyen]

On the DVC website I did not notice but now it says within the next few weeks they will put up booking and add on options

 

[AstroBlasters]

On the DVC website I did not notice but now it says within the next few weeks they will put up booking and add on options

I always said that there is no way they are going to miss the March Spring Break season to try and sell this thing…

 

[nlenguyen]

I don't know why they have not leaked something for us members to talk about. Speculating is only fun for so long.