Great point. My broader point is that there's no reason to believe 2023 points would be jeopardized by a (speculative) delay until December, as was being speculated in the message I was quoting.
Gee, so much ill will... Why bother building a DVC tower instead of just expanding the hotel room inventory, then, if that would make more money?
it's a fair assessment. Why do you think they declared all the rooms at VGF2 so fast? I too hope they'll declare the rooms at VDH in a similar way.
Only DVC knows for sure, but by guess would be that VGF came roaring out of the gate and they might have expected high sales volume to continue. Or they wanted extra DVC inventory to help absorb banked points from the pandemic closure. Or a bit of both...
hmm. You could be right. But respectfully, I don't buy it. I don't think Disney views VGF2 and VDH the same way. VGF was a cheap quick turn-around for Disney. A low hanging fruit and easy project they could quickly generate cash with. VDH is different. It's a gold mine for them. A product people have been salivating for a decade because of the ridiculously limited inventory in Anaheim. To them, they see it as a HOME-RUN, a grand slam. They're going to squeeze as much money as possible with this one because they think people are willing to pay. Does that sound too pessimistic? I think it's realistic. But those are just my views and speculation. I could and hope Disney proves me wrong!Only DVC knows for sure, but by guess would be that VGF came roaring out of the gate and they might have expected high sales volume to continue. Or they wanted extra DVC inventory to help absorb banked points from the pandemic closure. Or a bit of both...
I think I got lost on what we were debating. What is it you're not buying? Are you saying that you think VDH will have a point declaration pattern similar or different than VGF2?
My point is that Disney stands to gain by keeping all the rooms cash through the holidays, then allowing point stays. They aren't sacrificing anything in terms of sales by declaring rooms starting on say, 1/2 after their busy season concludes. And it would allow them to recoup lost holiday room sales from the PPH rooms that are out of commission. I could be totally wrong, but from a business standpoint it makes sense. And their behavior this far lends the theory some credence.
correct me if I'm wrong, but I was under the impression that you believe Disney is only offering cash rooms from the start for everyone including members, because they simply do not have points declared, which I agree with. But I guess I see a bit more "nefarious intent" for Disney to minimize 7 month availability for existing members to maximize cash rentals to encourage VDH purchases and also to generate 7 month scarcity. I don't doubt that Disney simply just might not be ready to sell and declare inventory. And like I've said many times, I hope to be wrong as I'm hoping to book rooms there using my direct points.
When they 1st sold VGC they did not offer current points to all UY's.
ok you got my attention
Okay, I think I understand your point now. I think you're saying that once they're able to declare points they'll only release a bit (as much as necessary for current sales but no more) so that most inventory remains undeclared and they can use it for cash rentals. As in, the point declaration pattern would be more restrictive than usual (noting that VGF2 was unusual).
Your broader point is spot-on, but a quick correction to the numbers:
I really love these boards. I'll admit, I can be wild on the speculations and love to be refuted with hard cold numbers. I think VDH will easily sell a million points in its first year, maybe even 2 million.
