*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I'm saying it hasn't boosted attendance like those additions did IMMEDIATELY. So, in that dollars-to-dollars comparison, yeah, it's a failure, because it was most certainly done INSTEAD OF another project, including capital improvements, that was also considered for this billion dollar outlay.

To this I would just like to mention again that Disney plays a loooong game. Looking at immediate results is not very informative. And raising attendance is not the only way to increase parks revenue. You can also increase avg per guest spend... which they may have reason to believe this will do.

 

[rluey29]

3 rides and we are out.....That has been our experience at MK since FP+ has been "rolled" out. We are local so we only get to visit on weekends. Rides we used to never wait more than 15 minutes for now have 45+ minute waits. So until our passes expire when we go we will ride our three and leave. No meals, no gift shops, and little fun.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

3 rides and we are out.....That has been our experience at MK since FP+ has been "rolled" out. We are local so we only get to visit on weekends. Rides we used to never wait more than 15 minutes for now have 45+ minute waits. So until our passes expire when we go we will ride our three and leave. No meals, no gift shops, and little fun.

Curious... "Little fun" -- why go? The pass is a sunk cost. Why not do something else with the leisure time instead?

 

[magicbob]

Perfect!

Nice avatar, OtherScott. Please feel free to mail me the $1000 usage fee at your earliest convenience.

 

[2Tiggies]

Why shouldn't people complain if you have to wait longer due to this new system. After all we pay to get in and if we experience less the cost per ride/ experience goes up. Not to mention after rolling out this new system Disney increased ticket prices again! If you are getting less for your money I would call that a valid issue!

With you on this! And dont' worry, I have also had each and every one of my concerns or grievances expressed about how FP+ gives me a lesser experience shot down being told very specifically, that they are (and I quote) "not a valid issue".

 

[coopersmom]

To this I would just like to mention again that Disney plays a loooong game. Looking at immediate results is not very informative. And raising attendance is not the only way to increase parks revenue. You can also increase avg per guest spend... which they may have reason to believe this will do.

"Looong game?" Not really. No publicly traded company does. The focus is almost entirely (and frequently not so smartly) on year over year growth. That's what drives the stock prices.

A project of this scope was absolutely approved based on how much it costs vs when it would break even and when it would be profitable, and if it was presented as, a "looong time from now," it wouldn't have been undertaken. There is a certain amount of time this level of expenditure can be amortized over that would make financial sense, but not much beyond five years.

And, as I've also said before, increasing per guest spending is definitely a goal, but not as big a one as getting new people in the parks. There is a finite limit on per-guest spending and Disney has already exploited that market about as far as they can. They will continue to creep it forward, bit by bit, always pushing right up against what the market will bear, but that's a game of inches at this point, not yards or miles. You're not going to see 25% or 30% growth in spending numbers. It's just not possible.

Adding a new land and increasing attendance 25% HAS been proven possible. Someone, somewhere had to have a sheet that showed MyMagic had a comparable return on investment to Carsland to get it approved and funded. Admittedly, the returns for the California Adventure expansion outpaced predictions, so I'm not saying they ever thought MyMagic/FastPass would be in that 25% range, but they were certainly expecting SOME kind of immediate bump to start paying back that billion dollar cost. So far, that hasn't occurred.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

"Looong game?" Not really. No publicly traded company does. The focus is almost entirely (and frequently not so smartly) on year over year growth. That's what drives the stock prices.

That's not fully accurate. It's a balance between short term growth and long term for successful companies like Disney. Payback period and ROI in the short term are not the full picture of how a company like this does business.

And remember: they've built a very flexible system that they can adjust over time, and FP+ is only one piece of this big investment. Not as much you can do if you roll out Stitch and it bombs. More flexibility and a much different product with this far-reaching system.

You wouldn't expect an investment like this to pay back in the same amount of time as a new attraction. I think it's far too soon to say what effect this will have on Disney's bottom line. And it would be very hard to tease out exactly how much of any revenue growth can be directly attributed to this system with complete accuracy.

 

[flicx]

With you on this! And dont' worry, I have also had each and every one of my concerns or grievances expressed about how FP+ gives me a lesser experience shot down being told very specifically, that they are (and I quote) "not a valid issue".

Maybe not valid to someone who can afford super long stays or lives very close and can comeback often. To some with larger pockets having valuable park time taken away may not matter. However many of us travel on a tighter budget can't go as often and have to maximize our time in the park. To us it is a big deal when you keep seeing the price increases and then they roll out a product that gives us a longer stay in line for more money, when they could have spent less and given us more things to see and do! These boards would be so lit up with positive feedback if Disney was doing what universal currently is doing, spending 500,000 a year on rides and, rightfully so. Who doesn't want new rides. If Disney wants to show me technology they are welcome to. Just do it by building new rides and attractions, and I am not just talking coasters either!

 

[JimmyV]

"Looong game?" Not really. No publicly traded company does. The focus is almost entirely (and frequently not so smartly) on year over year growth. That's what drives the stock prices.

That's not fully accurate. It's a balance between short term growth and long term for successful companies like Disney. Payback period and ROI in the short term are not the full picture of how a company like this does business.

You're both right, but long term return or growth doesn't really apply to FP+. Perhaps it plays a role in MDE, and wristbands and the ease of charging for a Mickey Bar, or the ability to open your hotel room door. But to the extent that giving someone one and only one FP for Soarin' is supposed to result in increased spending, that effect would be immediate, if it is to be seen at all. There is no reason to suspect that a guest who visits tomorrow and gets 3 FPs a day will have a different spending pattern than a guest who visits 4 years from now and gets 3 FPs a day. If we were talking about the evolutionary spending of the same individual over time, you might see a new pattern develop. But a family that arrives tomorrow for their "once every 3 years" trip and a family that arrives in three years for their "once every 3 years" trip should show pretty similar results. So if there is going to be evidence of increased spending, it should be immediate.

 

[daytondisney]

.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

So if there is going to be evidence of increased spending, it should be immediate.

A lot in your post but on my phone with two minutes to spare, just this for now...

When do you start the clock for this immediate result? Testing? Now? After APs fully rolled out? After offsite guests get to use MDE app? After they adjust and allow >3FP+/day (please!!)? After they add hopping in (also please!!)? After they add people's discounts to the bands automatically? After... ...

It's not so straightforward when it comes to ROI on something like this.

 

[daytondisney]

?

 

[daytondisney]

"Looong game?" Not really. No publicly traded company does. The focus is almost entirely (and frequently not so smartly) on year over year growth. That's what drives the stock prices.

A project of this scope was absolutely approved based on how much it costs vs when it would break even and when it would be profitable, and if it was presented as, a "looong time from now," it wouldn't have been undertaken. There is a certain amount of time this level of expenditure can be amortized over that would make financial sense, but not much beyond five years.

And, as I've also said before, increasing per guest spending is definitely a goal, but not as big a one as getting new people in the parks. There is a finite limit on per-guest spending and Disney has already exploited that market about as far as they can. They will continue to creep it forward, bit by bit, always pushing right up against what the market will bear, but that's a game of inches at this point, not yards or miles. You're not going to see 25% or 30% growth in spending numbers. It's just not possible.

Adding a new land and increasing attendance 25% HAS been proven possible. Someone, somewhere had to have a sheet that showed MyMagic had a comparable return on investment to Carsland to get it approved and funded. Admittedly, the returns for the California Adventure expansion outpaced predictions, so I'm not saying they ever thought MyMagic/FastPass would be in that 25% range, but they were certainly expecting SOME kind of immediate bump to start paying back that billion dollar cost. So far, that hasn't occurred.

Will you even allow this system to be fully implemented before demanding results? This began in a staggered fashion in the 4th quarter of the calendar year.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I'm not sure they want more people in the parks (well maybe the parks other than MK)...but I'm sure they do want more people in those 20% of hotel rooms that are empty every night on average. The idea is to "lock you in" as they keep saying over and over. Same idea behind Magical Express, which was a success. But just because Magical Express was a success doesn't mean this will be. I do think it will take a while to see whether it is or not.

 

[OtherScott]

What does that sentence even mean as it pertains to FP+? What is FP+ supposed to be "supporting"? That just sounds like corporate techno speak for: "FP+ doesn't really do anything to enhance the guest's experience or to drive profit. It's benefits are more nuanced and hidden than that."

The sentence was not meant to be comprehensive explanation of the system but to make the distinction between a system and a physical attraction. That it doesn't enhance your experience doesn't mean that Disney doesn't believe it will enhance the experience of most guests.

OK. So what "operations" is it supposed to support? MM+? I get that. But FP+ is a stand-alone system that happens to interface with MM+. But in and of itself it does not "support operations." I think that explanation mimimizes its function and glosses over its shortcomings.

No, FP+ is not a stand-alone system. It is system to manage use of the physical assets on site. $1.5 billion is a serious investment and if you think it was to merely get 3 FPs into the hands of guests in 2014, I don't see where we're even in the same room.

 

[JimmyV]

A lot in your post but on my phone with two minutes to spare, just this for now...

When do you start the clock for this immediate result? Testing? Now? After APs fully rolled out? After offsite guests get to use MDE app? After they adjust and allow >3FP+/day (please!!)? After they add hopping in (also please!!)? After they add people's discounts to the bands automatically? After... ...

It's not so straightforward when it comes to ROI on something like this.

All of the variables you mention would change the outcome, but each of these changes, if implemented tomorrow should show immediate results. So if the gave each person 3 FPs and you are thinking that this would impact spending, you should see that right away. And if you thought that giving people 4 FPs would impact spending, then you should see that result right away. The result will (might) be different as between the two. But the timing is the timing. Remember that you are not talking about a static group of people whose behavior will change over time. You are talking about a different set of people each week. If you believe that spending patterns will change over time for the long run, then you have to believe that the Smith family who visits in 2016 will behave (spend) differently than the Jones family in 2014. But there is no reason to think that is true. What part of the vacation experience will change between now and then? Sure, if the FP system is materially different for the Smith family you will see a shift in results. But that doesn't mean that changes made already need to ferment before results become observable.

 

[JimmyV]

Will you even allow this system to be fully implemented before demanding results? This began in a staggered fashion in the 4th quarter of the calendar year.

"Fully implemented" is a moving target. Disney, if unhappy with what it is seeing, can always unilaterally declare that the test is still underway and the best is yet to come. But for the people who visited between 1/15 (when FP- was retired) and now, this is your reference point. They pulled full price for their vacation and are entitled to conclude that they got a full experience. And it certainly makes sense to assume that even in the testing phase, measurable results would be observable. If not, what are they testing. The whole point of a test is to observe cause and effect. So it is not unreasonable to expect an effect and to comment on it even now.

 

[JimmyV]

It is system to manage use of the physical assets on site.

Another sentence that has no meaning. What physical asset are you talking about and how does giving a person the ability to cut the (non-existent) line at Captain EO manage that asset? The $1.5B was spent to integrate many systems through Magic Bands. But FP stands outside of MB usage for 60% of guests (and anyone else who opts out of using them). So, yes, if you are staying off site and using hard plastic admission cards, then FP is standing alone, fully functional for that guest and not interconnected with the rest of what Disney has implemented.
'

 

[Laketravis]

Will you even allow this system to be fully implemented before demanding results? This began in a staggered fashion in the 4th quarter of the calendar year.

This "began" well over two years ago. To continue to refer to it as a test is a marketing cop-out.

3 FP's, one park, once per attraction, tiers. Those fundamental components have not changed. The only change is how many guests are being included and when.

What is primarily being gauged now is guest reaction.

 

[Planogirl]

Did you decide to do Universal BECAUSE OF FP+, or were you planning on trying it regardless? I ask because we've talked about trying a few days at Universal at some point, but that is driven by the kids' ages and interest in the Universal offerings. Whether we go to Universal or not has nothing to do with FP+.

You didn't ask me but we routinely go to both Universal and WDW and will probably continue to do so. I admit that having Universal to escape to is quite a relief nowadays.

Another sentence that has no meaning. What physical asset are you talking about and how does giving a person the ability to cut the (non-existent) line at Captain EO manage that asset? The $1.5B was spent to integrate many systems through Magic Bands. But FP stands outside of MB usage for 60% of guests (and anyone else who opts out of using them). So, yes, if you are staying off site and using hard plastic admission cards, then FP is standing alone, fully functional for that guest and not interconnected with the rest of what Disney has implemented.
'

I keep wondering how FP+ supposedly contributes to so much too. I'm glad that you're trying to sort through the logic.

Frankly, I'm not really that interested in Disney motivations and plans in this context. When I play consumer, I only want to know if what happens will work for us. Everything else beyond that is really just interesting noise.