*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[clsteve]

I agree. Josh tends to be conservative and often late in his analysis. He may even be tempering himself currently because his initial report on FP+ was tilted towards a "no big deal" stance.

Not to throw more fuel on the fire, but I've STILL not seen any of those "just wait, it'll get better" changes that most had hoped for. It's still 3, in the same park, with tiering, and no attraction twice. And now we are hearing how that is measurably affecting SB times and FP+ availability as more and more are loaded onto the system.

I'm really looking forward to the coming weeks because what people experience then will be my litmus test for another trip later in the fall.

Lots and lots of 9's and 8's the next three weeks, with no break in the crowds.We'll at least be able to see what/if they learned from the last holiday weekend- especially with the queues.

Day of availability and the ability to make ressie changes day of will be interesting to watch. Well, that and Twitter.......

 

[JimmyV]

Lots and lots of 9's and 8's the next three weeks, with no break in the crowds.We'll at least be able to what/if they learned from the last holiday weekend- especially with the queues.

Day of availability and the ability to make ressie changes day of will be interesting to watch. Well, that and Twitter.......

It amazes me that with Disney looking down both barrels of 8 and 9 days that it is still only offering off-site guests the ability to pre-book FP+ on an invitation basis. This will spell disaster. When we were there in February, all off-site guests were in the same canoe. No one was treated any better than anyone else. I still feel as though I was treated as a "full price test subject" who received an inferior experience now that Disney has admitted that it intentionally held back the number of FPs that people could get versus what they expect the "finished product" to look like because they thought that such limitations would help them gather data from their testing. They have conceded that they held back the reins during the busy President's Day weekend test, yet I got nothing for my contribution to their cause.

From the "CM Called Me" thread:

Things he told me:

- This is indeed a test. They are trying out a bunch of different things, some of which is behind the scenes.
- 3 is the limit now, expect this to go up. It is limited to allow for good test data.
- Single-park FP+ per day is going away. It is limited to allow for good test data.
- Tiers are going to change, may even go away. They don't know yet.
-The long FP returns and longer lines in general is seen as a combination of technology (bugs), guests who are learning, and CM that are learning.
- Agreed that this is taking quite some time for CM's to get used to this, but they are. slowly.
- Anyone going in the fall will be in a very good position, since not only will testing be long over, but they would have gone through summer and force any remaining wrinkles out.

At least if I signed up for an experiment at a local lab, I'd get paid for my time. Here, I paid full price to experience a sub-standard system with admitted bugs and CM errors and was supposed to smile while they hooked the electrodes up to my brain. But that being said, things are going to be terrible for Disney when some off-site guests have to wait in half hour kiosk lines while other off-site guests stroll into the parks with pre-booked FP+s. I may be upset, but at least I know that the person standing next to me was similarly situated. But if I had to pay full price for my vacation and found out that Disney invited people who paid the same as me to get a measurably better experience, I would be irate. And I am guessing that I am not alone. Much of this problem evaporates on a crowd level day of 3 or 4. If people get all the FPs that they want by waiting in a 5 minute line, they can complain, but not much. But when those off-site guests wait in hour long kiosk lines on an 8 or 9 day only to find out that TSM, Space Mountain, Belle, Princesses, etc. are all gone by 10:30, I can only imagine what sort of negativity that will breed. This is going to get reeeeeaaaaal interesting.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

I agree. Josh tends to be conservative and often late in his analysis.

I don't know what this means.

He may even be tempering himself currently because his initial report on FP+ was tilted towards a "no big deal" stance.

Don't confuse "It's here - we'll deal with it" with "it's not big deal."

 

[MrInfinity]

It amazes me that with Disney looking down both barrels of 8 and 9 days that it is still only offering off-site guests the ability to pre-book FP+ on an invitation basis. This will spell disaster. When we were there in February, all off-site guests were in the same canoe. No one was treated any better than anyone else. I still feel as though I was treated as a "full price test subject" who received an inferior experience now that Disney has admitted that it intentionally held back the number of FPs that people could get versus what they expect the "finished product" to look like because they thought that such limitations would help them gather data from their testing. They have conceded that they held back the reins during the busy President's Day weekend test, yet I got nothing for my contribution to their cause. At least if I signed up for an experiment at a local lab, I'd get paid for my time. But that being said, things are going to be terrible for Disney when some off-site guests have to wait in half hour kiosk lines while other off-site guests stroll into the parks with pre-booked FP+s. I may be upset, but at least I know that the person standing next to me was similarly situated. But if I had to pay full price for my vacation and found out that Disney invited people who paid the same as me to get a measurably better experience, I would be irate. And I am guessing that I am not alone. Much of this problem evaporates on a crowd level day of 3 or 4. If people get all the FPs that they want by waiting in a 5 minute line, they can complain, but not much. But when those off-site guests wait in hour long kiosk lines on an 8 or 9 day only to find out that TSM, Space Mountain, Belle, Princesses, etc. are all gone by 10:30, I can only imagine what sort of negativity that will breed. This is going to get reeeeeaaaaal interesting.

It'll get to this point. Basically what you're describing are day-passers, right? People who live locally and want to go to the park for the day? Yeah Disney will get it to where those folks can book day-before, or even morning-of. If you're local, going to Disney might be a simple split-second decision... "What are you doing today? I dunno - wanna go to Disney? Sure!" That sort of thing. Ok, go hop on the computer, pick 3 rides, go. But the issue there is they don't have a magic band. So, I envision it will come to where you can buy a magic band for $20 or whatever, and then you just own it. Then you want to go to the park, you go on Disney.com, pay your admission, and it links your one-day pass to the MB. Then you can attach rides to your MB since it has a ticket linked. Basically they have to come up w a way to ensure ppl that have such rogue magic bands don't just randomly hoard FP+ slots in case they might go (cuz you know ppl will do this, like book SDMT for every day and then sell those fully reserved MBs on Ebay or something). So when they get it down to where the right controls are in place, the Kiosks will be reduced to merely being there for ppl that do not have someone in their party that uses the internet or a smartphone. It'll get to this point.

Day-passers won't get dibbs on hot items like the SDMT or A&E which will go to Resort Guests at 60 days and AP guests at 30 days... (just like they wouldn't get in to BOG either on a last min trip) but Disney certainly does not want these guests having to occupy Kiosks and CM time.

 

[JimmyV]

It'll get to this point. Basically what you're describing are day-passers, right? People who live locally and want to go to the park for the day?

No. I am describing all the people booked into the Swan and Dolphin (which are booked through Central Reservations), and at Bonnet Creek, and at Marriott World, and the Hyatt Grand Cypress, and the Vistana Resort, and all the local hotels and time shares. I am talking about the 60%-70% of the people who will be in the parks. Only a minority of them are now getting the invite to test the new FP+ system. The rest of them are going to be kiosk people just like we all were in February. So now, instead of having a two class system of on site vs. off site (about which people could fairly debate the merits), they now have a three tiered-system of on site, off site with FP+ pre-booking and off site without privileges. While "day trippers" also fall into these buckets, I was mainly talking about people who are there for a full week or more, have 7 or 8 day passes, and have booked lots of ADRs at Disney's expensive restaurants.

 

[gwmort]

This system can't change this fact. Disney has spun this change into some fantastic thing to help its customers,"Propaganda". In its simplest form it really doesn't do much in that regard IMO. One thing that is a fact had Disney elected to add 2 or 3 headliners to the parks, with money leftover, instead of this system people would have been spread out better on the new rides!

I see this sentiment a lot and don't get it.

Where in the MK do you think they could add more headliner attractions without increasing congestion?
Are you assuming they will expand the park and not expand the capacity limit at the gate?
Isn't this basically what they did with the new FL anyway?

Now I get in Epcot they have an awkwardly high number of unused buildings and areas, but I don't see increasing attraction density in MK as a good thing, and if they don't increase density they will increase capacity which will negate any line crowd benefit.

 

[JimmyV]

I see this sentiment a lot and don't get it.

Where in the MK do you think they could add more headliner attractions without increasing congestion?

In the spaces currently occupied by the Speedway, CoP, and Tom Sawyer's Island, they could build 3 or 4 major attractions without expanding the footprint of the park. Of course, they would have to keep the gate count the same in order for this to have any impact.

 

[clsteve]

In the spaces currently occupied by the Speedway, CoP, and Tom Sawyer's Island, they could build 3 or 4 major attractions without expanding the footprint of the park. Of course, they would have to keep the gate count the same in order for this to have any impact.

The Speedway! TL and FL wouldn't be the same without the fumes of 300 lawnmowers drifting over that part of the Park......!!!

 

[gwmort]

In the spaces currently occupied by the Speedway, CoP, and Tom Sawyer's Island, they could build 3 or 4 major attractions without expanding the footprint of the park. Of course, they would have to keep the gate count the same in order for this to have any impact.

I'll give you CoP, but doesn't the speedway already suck up lots of guests who wait around in a long line? How would the line for Space Mountain be different if there were a different attraction sucking up the same number of guests in that spot.

I really don't think Tom Sawyer's Island is practical unless you scrap the riverboat ride too and build a bridge, then those people are displaced into other rides, and I suspect if the land area of the island were more easily accessible and actually utilized the park capacity would increase.

 

[FlipHipster]

Lots and lots of 9's and 8's the next three weeks, with no break in the crowds.We'll at least be able to what/if they learned from the last holiday weekend- especially with the queues.

Day of availability and the ability to make ressie changes day of will be interesting to watch. Well, that and Twitter.......

This ^. This is probably the last good chance for Disney to get numbers before the summer crowd. I would think if we see any adjustments it will be right after this peak or maybe in the middle towards the end of it but before the start of summer. Depends on whether or not they are at a point where they can get some reliable data. I'm thinking this fall may be the ticket (pun intended). They should know a lot after 3 months of really crowded parks.

The survey questions were intriguing. Clearly they plan to make adjustments which is probably(fingers crossed) a good thing. It's unclear though whether the original plan has changed or if they are shooting from the hip at this point but I am happy to see them soliciting ideas from their customers.

 

[surferdave]

I'll give you CoP, but doesn't the speedway already suck up lots of guests who wait around in a long line? How would the line for Space Mountain be different if there were a different attraction sucking up the same number of guests in that spot.

I really don't think Tom Sawyer's Island is practical unless you scrap the riverboat ride too and build a bridge, then those people are displaced into other rides, and I suspect if the land area of the island were more easily accessible and actually utilized the park capacity would increase.

I tend to agree with all this, but that pretty much matches my reasoning to why new Fantasyland isn't adding that much since it displaced some old Fantasyland attractions and ToonTown.

 

[JimmyV]

I'll give you CoP, but doesn't the speedway already suck up lots of guests who wait around in a long line? How would the line for Space Mountain be different if there were a different attraction sucking up the same number of guests in that spot.

The Speedway is a notoriously slow boarding ride. Very inefficient in comparison to the load capacity of other, more modern rides.

I really don't think Tom Sawyer's Island is practical unless you scrap the riverboat ride too and build a bridge, then those people are displaced into other rides, and I suspect if the land area of the island were more easily accessible and actually utilized the park capacity would increase.

Yes. We would be displacing those people. All 17 of them.

 

[KatieCharlotte]

No. I am describing all the people booked into the Swan and Dolphin (which are booked through Central Reservations), and at Bonnet Creek, and at Marriott World, and the Hyatt Grand Cypress, and the Vistana Resort, and all the local hotels and time shares. I am talking about the 60%-70% of the people who will be in the parks. Only a minority of them are now getting the invite to test the new FP+ system. The rest of them are going to be kiosk people just like we all were in February. So now, instead of having a two class system of on site vs. off site (about which people could fairly debate the merits), they now have a three tiered-system of on site, off site with FP+ pre-booking and off site without privileges. While "day trippers" also fall into these buckets, I was mainly talking about people who are there for a full week or more, have 7 or 8 day passes, and have booked lots of ADRs at Disney's expensive restaurants.

I will be at MK in three weeks. I will be on the rides all morning, while well-prepared off-site guests who spent thousands more on their trips than me are standing at kiosks for the fifth or sixth morning in a row on their dream trips to Disney. That's just not Disney magic to me. I did not mind when extra effort reaped rewards, but I feel for everyone who booked a Disney vacation not knowing they would be treated this way. I am not happy they get to be test subjects during spring break.

 

[clsteve]

This ^. This is probably the last good chance for Disney to get numbers before the summer crowd. I would think if we see any adjustments it will be right after this peak or maybe in the middle towards the end of it but before the start of summer. Depends on whether or not they are at a point where they can get some reliable data. I'm thinking this fall may be the ticket (pun intended). They should know a lot after 3 months of really crowded parks.

The survey questions were intriguing. Clearly they plan to make adjustments which is probably(fingers crossed) a good thing. It's unclear though whether the original plan has changed or if they are shooting from the hip at this point but I am happy to see them soliciting ideas from their customers.

Yes, and those adjustments don't have to be an "all the time thing." They don't need to adjust much during the busy season since Resort and Park Occupancy are already maxed. As others have also said, those adjustments could be seasonal adjustments- more in the slower seasons, for example, where it could help increase both.

There's still a good mix of shooting from the hip going on- we saw that last holiday weekend by how unprepared they were with the queues. When your beta test scenarios back in 2012 include CM's, CM families, and selected guests being scanned in with handheld scanners instead of static Mickeys scanning the above plus 80 year-old non-english speaking grandparents from Bulgaria with the grandkids- your test data is off for the real deal.......

 

[mom2rtk]

I will be at MK in three weeks. I will be on the rides all morning, while well-prepared off-site guests who spent thousands more on their trips than me are standing at kiosks for the fifth or sixth morning in a row on their dream trips to Disney. That's just not Disney magic to me. I did not mind when extra effort reaped rewards, but I feel for everyone who booked a Disney vacation not knowing they would be treated this way. I am not happy they get to be test subjects during spring break.

I totally agree. We stay onsite but I think what Disney is doing to these offsite guests is really rotten. No amount of planning or research will change this for them. It is up to Disney to change it for them.

 

[flicx]

I see this sentiment a lot and don't get it.

Where in the MK do you think they could add more headliner attractions without increasing congestion?
Are you assuming they will expand the park and not expand the capacity limit at the gate?
Isn't this basically what they did with the new FL anyway?

Now I get in Epcot they have an awkwardly high number of unused buildings and areas, but I don't see increasing attraction density in MK as a good thing, and if they don't increase density they will increase capacity which will negate any line crowd benefit.

I think there is room even at the MK. I am not sure what lies behind POTC and jungle cruise but I am sure they could easily squeeze out some land some where. Like you said EPCOT is a no brainer there are so many empty spaces now they could really expand there. Animal kingdom should have a ton of space considering its size. I am quite the studios has room too. I really don't think Disney has to worry about going over the gate limit very often so this wouldn't come into play much. New rides not replacing old could definitely decrease wait times!

 

[jade1]

Yes, and my way of going early to beat the crowds is the one that takes more effort and planning which has historically been rewarded with shorter waits. That those short waits will now be lengthened so that people can lounge by the pool and still get to ride SM the moment they enter the park is simply wrong. If someone wants to spend the same amount of money as I do and enter the parks late and wander around clueless, that's their choice. It should NOT affect ME, just as my choice to enter early, get through the rides and leave before they even arrive does not affect THEM.

Name one other themepark that guarantees that latecomers will still be able to ride all the headline attractions? I do not count places like Universal which SELL an anytime FP which I could buy myself and thus remain unaffected by latecomers. I won't have that choice at WDW because I'll be limited to 3FP and no doubt stuck in longer SB lines for the rest.

Sorry soo late, I worked until 1AM today then 8AM meetings.

My point was your kids had to "SLEEP" in the evening, while maybe a west coast arrivers kids need to "SLEEP" in the morning. Or the group is just a night owl group, or have other AM activities planned.

Either way WDW obviously decided to tackle this issue (among others) and came up with this.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I totally agree. We stay onsite but I think what Disney is doing to these offsite guests is really rotten. No amount of planning or research will change this for them. It is up to Disney to change it for them.

They could decide to stay on-site. Just like Universal Studios, staying on-site is beginning to have real advantages.

 

[mom2rtk]

They could decide to stay on-site. Just like Universal Studios, staying on-site is beginning to have real advantages.

I know they could. But I still fee the way I do about it. It's hard for bigger families to afford onsite accommodations.

 

[JimmyV]

They could decide to stay on-site. Just like Universal Studios, staying on-site is beginning to have real advantages.

Disney wants 200,000 or so people in the parks on a busy day. It's 25,000 hotel rooms cannot handle that many people. So Disney knows that the majority of people in the parks on busy days will be staying off site. Just saying "stay on site" doesn't get anyone anywhere.