*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[Laketravis]

I don't have time to read all 44 pages but I've been saying for months that a result of FP+ would be a flattening of the bell curve; extreme waits and walk-ons (left and right of the curve) could be significantly reduced while raising the average wait times of non-headliners.

 

[Mad Hattered]

I don't have time to read all 44 pages but I've been saying for months that a result of FP+ would be a flattening of the bell curve; extreme waits and walk-ons (left and right of the curve) could be significantly reduced while raising the average wait times of non-headliners.

You should.

 

[JDUCKY]

I don't think you'll see this ill effect. Rope drop is rope drop. Casual tourists that would rather come in at 10 or 11 are not going to be picking 9am slots, and power-tourers that want to rope drop at 9am are going to take midday slots and use the rope drop time standby. Thus, you have everyone pretty much wanting midday and early evening slots. If anything I think the longest standby lines will continue to be midday, and they might be longer than before, because so many ppl are going fastpass during this time. Getting there early to beat the crowds will still be just as useful as it always was.

Based on what you describe above, I think FP+ would work very well for you. You'll arrive early, ride quickly from 9-11, take FPs for 11, 12, and 1, and be out of there by 2.

FP- is available for times as soon as the park opens as opposed to the prior FP system that delayed the first FPs for an hour. Once the FP- people start streaming into the FP- entrance, the standby guests' wait time increases and that starts from the park opening now.

Isn't it great?!

 

[Mad Hattered]

FP- is available for times as soon as the park opens as opposed to the prior FP system that delayed the first FPs for an hour. Once the FP- people start streaming into the FP- entrance, the standby guests' wait time increases and that starts from the park opening now.

Isn't it great?!

I think you meant to use + instead of - in your post.

 

[JDUCKY]

I think you meant to use + instead of - in your post.

Nope...

FP- is the new system as it takes away so much of what we used to be able to do.

 

[Mad Hattered]

Nope...

FP- is the new system as it takes away so much of what we used to be able to do.

I apologize. I get confused about who actually likes this anymore. My bad.

BTW....your point is spot on.

 

[JDUCKY]

I apologize. I get confused about who actually likes this anymore. My bad.

BTW....your point is spot on.

FP- is teh debbil!

 

[jade1]

Yeah, I don't get it. I should be happy that someone who slept in all morning is now able to waltz in at three and ride what they want?

See we didn't have the option to come back later at night - our kiddos needed to SLEEP.

Hmm, 2 totally opposite ways of touring, yet the same amount of time (and money spent) in the parks.

 

[Silock]

That matters a ton. Because you got to go on significantly less, more other ppl got to go on a little more. It's not like the rides just started servicing fewer ppl. The same number of ppl are getting on the ride... it's just less you and more other ppl. It's a transition from a few ppl utilizing a big benefit to many ppl utilizing a smaller benefit.

This is a fact that is not in evidence. It is actually entirely possible that the lines are simply moving more slowly, for whatever reason.

 

[Silock]

I can't speak for anyone else, but that is in no way how we thought on vacation. We used fp and got 5-7/day, yes. We did not, however, have fp runners, have anyone cut in line to join family, etc. We didn't hoard fps til late in the day, either. We gathered them organically as we went through the park, and used them within their windows.

As did we. I didn't even know you COULD come back far after the window.

 

[AndreaA]

Hmm, 2 totally opposite ways of touring, yet the same amount of time (and money spent) in the parks.

Yes, and my way of going early to beat the crowds is the one that takes more effort and planning which has historically been rewarded with shorter waits. That those short waits will now be lengthened so that people can lounge by the pool and still get to ride SM the moment they enter the park is simply wrong. If someone wants to spend the same amount of money as I do and enter the parks late and wander around clueless, that's their choice. It should NOT affect ME, just as my choice to enter early, get through the rides and leave before they even arrive does not affect THEM.

Name one other themepark that guarantees that latecomers will still be able to ride all the headline attractions? I do not count places like Universal which SELL an anytime FP which I could buy myself and thus remain unaffected by latecomers. I won't have that choice at WDW because I'll be limited to 3FP and no doubt stuck in longer SB lines for the rest.

 

[Laketravis]

I don't have time to read all 44 pages but I've been saying for months that a result of FP+ would be a flattening of the bell curve; extreme waits and walk-ons (left and right of the curve) could be significantly reduced while raising the average wait times of non-headliners.

You should.

The fact that I've always trusted your judgement now has me wondering if I missed something in the other posts.

I just got back from a very extended business trip and saw the "Throwaway Room" thread, then this one, and figured that just like old times there are probably those who continue to insist that FP+ is providing substantial benefits to the masses despite growing evidence indicating otherwise.

I'm also betting that while the SB times for headliners remain static, the SB times for all other attractions has and will continue to increase, and that this recent trend is not due wholly to a corresponding correlation in increased park attendance but due to a forced utilization of less popular attractions as Disney "spreads the love" with FP+.

Am I close?

 

[Mad Hattered]

The fact that I've always trusted your judgement now has me wondering if I missed something in the other posts.

I just got back from a very extended business trip and saw the "Throwaway Room" thread, then this one, and figured that just like old times there are probably those who continue to insist that FP+ is providing substantial benefits to the masses despite growing evidence indicating otherwise.

I'm also betting that while the SB times for headliners remain static, the SB times for all other attractions has and will continue to increase, and that this recent trend is not due wholly to a corresponding correlation in increased park attendance but due to a forced utilization of less popular attractions as Disney "spreads the love" with FP+.

Am I close?

Pretty close. But my wait time went up more than 1.5% at those secondary attractions. Oh, and Josh's data isn't complete enough or measured against this, that and the other.

 

[KatieCharlotte]

Can anyone who was paying attention longer and has a better memory than me provide any insight into why Disney did not add legacy FP to rides like PotC and removed it from HM? Was it merely that it wasn't needed, or was there more complex reasoning, considering rides like Living with the Land did have FP? Specifically, wasn't there an efficiency issue with the lines merging on HM, or was that resolved? Why did rides like Dumbo and Speedway not have FP, even though they had long lines? Clearly the reasoning changed with FP+ and the plan to get more people using it, but were there efficiency arguments in the past?

 

[Laketravis]

Pretty close. But my wait time went up more than 1.5% at those secondary attractions. Oh, and Josh's data isn't complete enough or measured against this, that and the other.

I agree. Josh tends to be conservative and often late in his analysis. He may even be tempering himself currently because his initial report on FP+ was tilted towards a "no big deal" stance.

Not to throw more fuel on the fire, but I've STILL not seen any of those "just wait, it'll get better" changes that most had hoped for. It's still 3, in the same park, with tiering, and no attraction twice. And now we are hearing how that is measurably affecting SB times and FP+ availability as more and more are loaded onto the system.

I'm really looking forward to the coming weeks because what people experience then will be my litmus test for another trip later in the fall.

 

[EMode]

I agree. Josh tends to be conservative and often late in his analysis. He may even be tempering himself currently because his initial report on FP+ was tilted towards a "no big deal" stance.

Not to throw more fuel on the fire, but I've STILL not seen any of those "just wait, it'll get better" changes that most had hoped for. It's still 3, in the same park, with tiering, and no attraction twice. And now we are hearing how that is measurably affecting SB times and FP+ availability as more and more are loaded onto the system.

I'm really looking forward to the coming weeks because what people experience then will be my litmus test for another trip later in the fall.

But its still testing, have faith. Disney will find a way to make it magical for us all. If they don't, who cares anyway you're at WDW

 

[JimmyV]

That matters a ton. Because you got to go on significantly less, more other ppl got to go on a little more. It's not like the rides just started servicing fewer ppl. The same number of ppl are getting on the ride... it's just less you and more other ppl. It's a transition from a few ppl utilizing a big benefit to many ppl utilizing a smaller benefit.

First, let me say...great post. That really is the crux of what is going on here.

Second, there is a slight inaccuracy but one that the CMs will probably adjust for. Some rides that have two boarding sides, (like Space Mountain, Pirates and BTMRR) have experienced inefficient boarding where one side is dedicated to FP returnees and the other to SB riders. That inefficiency rears its head if there are not enough FP returnees to max out their side of the ride. This is more prevalent at secondary attractions like PoTC. This has resulted in half-filled boats leaving the dock at prime times and hence, the same number of peope are NOT getting on the ride. But they will probaly fix this.

But the third point is the most interesting one. If we assume that the same number of people are riding the ride, and that it is just "less us" and "more others", why are people so darn sure that wait times will or should decrease? 30,000 riders per day is 30,000 riders per day. It should take the same aggregate amount of time, no? If we look at daily averages, (as Josh does) instead of looking at things in half hour slices (which would be more accurate when trying to plot out a touring plan), then the daily average has no chance of changing materially. The point you make is a strong one for arguing that total wait times are not increasing and that people are simply seeing their own sky falling. But by the same token, it is also a strong argument as to why wait times cannot decrease as many here insist they have, will or must.

 

[Rip]

But its still testing, have faith. Disney will find a way to make it magical for us all. If they don't, who cares anyway you're at WDW

When they start letting me go for free, I'll have this attitude. When I'm dropping thousands of dollars, I don't want to be their guinea pig.

 

[MrInfinity]

I agree... His initial report on FP+ was tilted towards a "no big deal" stance.

It really is not a big deal.

I've STILL not seen any of those "just wait, it'll get better" changes that most had hoped for. It's still 3, in the same park, with tiering, and no attraction twice.

You do realize it's not going to get "better", right? Better in the sense that you used to be able to go on way more than anyone else because you used FP- and they didn't. Adding more FP+'s will not help your waits. Because they will add more for everyone. So you get one more FP+, so will every other guest visiting the park. If they un-tier - it will be untiered for everyone.

I don't think ppl understand that tweaking the specifics of FP+ is *never* going to get you back to the days where you had a leg up on most less-knowing guests and therefore you got to ride substantially more than them

I certainly hope the disboards is not going to be "Is it better yet?" "how 'bout now"... for the next 10 years. It will never be like FP-. This is the realization we, as ex-fp-masters must accept. We can work w/in the new limits or just complain forever. I support whichever path you want to do. Want to complain for the next 10 years? Have at it! But do know that it will be for naught as Disney is not going to revert FP+ back down to a system only a minority of their crowds used. Those days are gone.

 

[flicx]

30,000 riders per day is 30,000 riders per day.

This system can't change this fact. Disney has spun this change into some fantastic thing to help its customers,"Propaganda". In its simplest form it really doesn't do much in that regard IMO. One thing that is a fact had Disney elected to add 2 or 3 headliners to the parks, with money leftover, instead of this system people would have been spread out better on the new rides!