*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[clsteve]

No....just so I can witness the carnage that FP+ will unleash on it. It's going to be a fundamental fail because of FP+. I am not a fan of FP+ (or so I hear). Why wouldn't I want to see the results I expect? If it had traditional FP then it would be first come first served. Not anymore. And in that lies the beauty of it all.

Aaaaaaapple?

Yes, it does. 7DMT will give us the most insight into where all of this is going. Especially since it's opening right before the busy season, and when AP and off-site are starting to make FP reservations in advance. We'll learn a lot about:

Yield Management

When do they allow FP reservations to start?
Do they Alllow them in the beginning?
Do they Tier it (and MK)?
Do they allocate 80% (or more, or less) to FP's?
What are the queues like FP and SB?​

Capacity Management

We know they don't want 50,000 people milling around FL and NFL trying to see if they can ride. So, what besides the above do they do?
How might EMH play into it?​

This is as much a social engineering project as it is anything else for Disney. This hasn't been done before and all of those plans, formulas, and models they used to justify and build this are hitting the stark, cold, reality that people are more of a variable in those equations than a constant. What they do with 7DMT will be very telling for SB and FP+

Hoping for it to fail? Real nice.

I doubt any want failure- finally some answers and data to all of the speculation of the past many months is something everybody would want, I hope....

If I could post pictures at work still then I would have totally had a Flying Nun one posted here and then stated....my bad.

A young Sally Field in a nun's habit, ah, those were the days. There's still time when you get home.......

And ladies, we've endured the millions of Johnny Depp/Orlando Bloom posts and threads- don't judge that too harshly !!

 

[FLchick415]

I do want to apologize for my salty attitude in that previous post. I was kind of in a grouchy mood this morning and I snapped. I can't deny that it WILL be intriguing to see what happens when Mine Train gets brought on board with FP+, and I can't deny that I'm a bit thankful that my April trip is ending right before the media event, and possible grand opening, for it.

 

[Mad Hattered]

I do want to apologize for my salty attitude in that previous post. I was kind of in a grouchy mood this morning and I snapped. I can't deny that it WILL be intriguing to see what happens when Mine Train gets brought on board with FP+, and I can't deny that I'm a bit thankful that my April trip is ending right before the media event, and possible grand opening, for it.

No need to apologize to me. I didn't take it personally. Besides, I have Rhino skin.

 

[mom2rtk]

I can't deny that I'm a bit thankful that my April trip is ending right before the media event, and possible grand opening, for it.

I don't blame you one bit. I have been known to move an entire trip just to avoid the grand opening of something. In 07 we purposely just missed the opening of the Nemo Subs in DLR. In 10 it was WOC by a day. I do everything I can to miss huge crowds. I wasn't very thrilled to find out New Fantasyland was opening the day before our 2012 trip though, and it was too late to do anything about it. Turned out to be great though. New Fantasyland was crazy packed. But we had an awesome time touring the rest of the park that day. One of our best ever.

 

[magicbob]

In addition to more people using FP. More people = line. It's not magical. If everyone is in the FP line, you have priority over no one, there is going to be a line. Even if they remove the scanners completely, you can still only load so many people on a ride at a time. It doesn't matter whether they come in the left door, the right door or rappel in from the ceiling.

I like to rappel. But I hear that rappeling in is a tier 1 experience, even if you're rapelling into the Figment line.

Effectively, all they have done is reversed the ratio and the FP line is the new standby line, only you need an active appointment to be able to get into it. What was formerly the regular line and known as the standby line has now become a real standby line and you ride subject to availability. Pretty much like not getting on a flight and sitting on standby in case another passenger with a reservation doesn't show up

Exactly. FP+ = reservation to get in line. Standby = get to ride if there's an opening.

Honestly, I think Disney shot itself in the foot when it came out of the box with 3 pre-booked FPs. Anything less now will seem like a retraction, even though at Epcot, you are really only getting one that is useful. I think a better system would have been to allow guests to book one per day in advance. That way, they could have "locked in" their "must do" attraction, and then left the old system in place, even if that meant replacing the operations of the old system with a digital system. In other words, other than your one advanced FP, all others would be booked while in the park with no restrictions other than a limit of how much time must pass in between your selections. If they had come out of the box with this system, it would give the appearance of giving guests a huge benefit that they never had before without mucking up a system that was actually working. And to the people who would respond that 50% of the people weren't using the old system, I would say that once people got the opportunity to pre-book (just as they have now) it would familiarize them with the system such that they would have used in upon arrival. There is no reason to think that the current system is educating people on its use more so than what I would have done.

Edit to add: And instead of "Lock It In", my marketing campaign would have been: "What's Your Disney Must-Do?"

 

[FLchick415]

No need to apologize to me. I didn't take it personally. Besides, I have Rhino skin.

You may not have needed the apology, but I did. lol I don't like lashing out at people because I'M in a bad mood.

 

[mom2rtk]

I like to rappel. But I hear that rappeling in is a tier 1 experience, even if you're rapelling into the Figment line.

Save that approach for the Mine Train. You might just need it.

 

[FLchick415]

I don't blame you one bit. I have been known to move an entire trip just to avoid the grand opening of something. In 07 we purposely just missed the opening of the Nemo Subs in DLR. In 10 it was WOC by a day. I do everything I can to miss huge crowds. I wasn't very thrilled to find out New Fantasyland was opening the day before our 2012 trip though, and it was too late to do anything about it. Turned out to be great though. New Fantasyland was crazy packed. But we had an awesome time touring the rest of the park that day. One of our best ever.

I'm hoping I'll get in on a soft opening ride, but if not...well, it'll still be there when I go back next time. lol

 

[magicbob]

Save that approach for the Mine Train. You might just need it.

Sounds like that might be a Signature experience requiring two FP+s.

 

[Shaden]

I don't see how three fastpasses locks people in that well. Of course, people who don't know better won't understand how to maximize their time but I can quickly ride three rides and then wander off to do something else. With the old system I would have been able to use the three fastpasses and then hope to get more which I believe more effectively locked me in. I see a potential for all day fastpass availability as something better (and more like to keep me around all day) than just three.

I mean, I agree. My strategy while booking FP+s was this:

Book your first one to END when you are planning on using it.
So book it for 11:30 - 12:30, planning on using it at 12:30. Book the next 12:30 - 1:30. and Last 1:30-2:30.

Do the first two, back to back, grab a bite to eat or ride something else with a short wait time, then ride your last and head out of the park.

Or do the same thing, but an hour earlier, ride the first 2 FP+ from 11:30 - 12 ... then catch your last at 12:30 and be gone.

BUT, as someone else noted, that's because we KNOW to do that, other people probably wont, and some will even accept the crazy spaced out times the auto selection will give you sometimes.

 

[clsteve]

Sounds like that might be a Signature experience requiring two FP+s.

That is the scariest option anyone has posted in the past several months- did you just get an audit notice from the IRS or something...?

 

[ALDSMD]

BUT, as someone else noted, that's because we KNOW to do that, other people probably wont, and some will even accept the crazy spaced out times the auto selection will give you sometimes.

How do you get around the times they give you? I make my choices this weekend and I am not feeling comfortable on how to get the times I want. Thanks for your help.

 

[practicallyperfect77]

How do you get around the times they give you? I make my choices this weekend and I am not feeling comfortable on how to get the times I want. Thanks for your help.

I believe you will first have to choose one of their options. Then you go in and change the time for each one for when you want it to be. I knew I wanted mine in the afternoon since I was hopping and planning on hitting a different park at RD. I found it easiest to pick the option that had all morning times (furthest away from when I wanted them). This way I only had to change times not times and attractions.

 

[JeremyGNJ]

I'm with you on the shopping theory. I'm not sure that the inexperienced guest is necessarily going to stand in a long line for standby. If the posted time is too long, they are perhaps more likely to skip it than a moderately experienced guest IMO because it's harder to peg an attraction as a must do when you've never done it before. The reason we go back to our favorites over and over is because we have done them, experienced them and used our own experience to rate them as Great.

I cannot agree with this at all. Many inexperienced visitors are likely taking a trip to Disney as a "once in a lifetime" experience. They will wait for the rides, precisely because they don't know whether it's a must-do or not. They probably don't even care, they're just at the parks to do as many attractions as they can.

 

[JimmyV]

Many inexperienced visitors are likely taking a trip to Disney as a "once in a lifetime" experience.

But if Disney plays its hand correctly, it can grab the visitors who thought that they were going to be "once in a lifetime guests" and convert them into lifetime visitors (and perhaps even sell them a DVC while they are down there). It behooves Disney not to accept the premise that any guest is a "once in a lifetime guest" and instead they should be doing everything they can to make those guests' visits as magical as possible so as to lure them back time and time again. But if you present the first time guest with 90 minute standby lines for major attractions and FPs for the Tea Cups, you are pretty much cementing in the notion that this guest isn't coming back.

 

[mom2rtk]

But if Disney plays its hand correctly, it can grab the visitors who thought that they were going to be "once in a lifetime guests" and convert them into lifetime visitors (and perhaps even sell them a DVC while they are down there). It behooves Disney not to accept the premise that any guest is a "once in a lifetime guest" and instead they should be doing everything they can to make those guests' visits as magical as possible so as to lure them back time and time again. But if you present the first time guest with 90 minute standby lines for major attractions and FPs for the Tea Cups, you are pretty much cementing in the notion that this guest isn't coming back.

That's really what is so perplexing about all of this.

 

[catra121]

I cannot agree with this at all. Many inexperienced visitors are likely taking a trip to Disney as a "once in a lifetime" experience. They will wait for the rides, precisely because they don't know whether it's a must-do or not. They probably don't even care, they're just at the parks to do as many attractions as they can.

I tend to agree with this.

The other thing too is that at may other theme parks or amusement parks...for those who don't pay for whatever express pass type system they offer...it's really not that uncommon for rides to have wait times of 30-60 minutes...often longer. So they are used to standing in those lines. It's only those of us who have been able to tour Disney and not spend more than 20 minutes in a line that we think 45 minutes is too long to wait in line for a ride. And the rides are amazing...at least in my opinion...and put those Six Flags rides to shame. So from that standpoint...those guests not only won't mind standing in a line that is 45-60 minutes long...they won't think anything of it. It's not a "change" to them...it's the norm. Perception is everything.

 

[RogueKnits]

That would be a step in the right direction. But once everyone books their three, I just don't have a lot of faith that there will be much headliner capacity left. Once offsite and APs get online with the current system, we'll have a better idea of how that is running.

My beef with the whole thing is that it seems like such a silly game to have to start choosing to use a FP at park open just to SEE if there's anything else left to even get.

And what's bolded is the real problem, isn't it? The headliner rides do not have the capacity for every person in the park to ride even once per day. Yes, there is some margin of error to account for children who are not tall enough, those who don't want to ride, etc., but fundamentally the issue is that not everyone who wants to ride a particular headliner can be guaranteed a ride on a given day. That's the reason for tiering and not allowing multiple FPs to be booked for the same ride. Disney is trying to make a crappy situation as fair as possible by spreading out the available FP so that as many people who want to ride can ride once.

Adding additional headliner rides would thin the lines a little (assuming the same amount of people in the park, which is itself a faulty assumption because new ride usually = bigger crowd). But new rides don't necessarily reduce demand for older headliners (7DMT opening won't mean fewer people want to ride SM). The only thing that would really help would be to reduce the parks' capacity limits, but I think we all know that's not likely to happen.

 

[Shaden]

How do you get around the times they give you? I make my choices this weekend and I am not feeling comfortable on how to get the times I want. Thanks for your help.

I believe you will first have to choose one of their options. Then you go in and change the time for each one for when you want it to be. I knew I wanted mine in the afternoon since I was hopping and planning on hitting a different park at RD. I found it easiest to pick the option that had all morning times (furthest away from when I wanted them). This way I only had to change times not times and attractions.

Yea basically you go through and select the FP+s you want.
Pick one of the selected pre-planned itineraries Disney gives you.
Then you have to "modify" your fast passes, and on right hand side you will be able to change the times, move them around, etc.

 

[ALDSMD]

Thank you!! I didn't realize it was hard to get times you wanted.