Updated 6/5!! Grand Villa Every 3 Years - Me Do the Math and Pick a Use Year

[mrsclark]

Original Post 5/27:

I have been researching DVC for over a year - it is complicated! I am helping my dad look into purchasing a contract. We have narrowed it down to the following four resorts: BLT, BWV, SSR, and AKV.

I think I have the following correct: If he wants to rent a Grand Villa every third year starting in 2022, with the current 50% borrowing restrictions in place, we need a contract with 40% of the points we will need to rent a grand villa in order to make this happen. For example, if we think a week in a GV will cost us 800 points (and I am using the 2022 points charts), we would want to look for a contract around 320-350 points, correct? Then we would take our banked 2021 points, all of our 2022 points and half of our 2023 points to get the GV.

We could look for one big contract OR, as long as keep the same use year, we could buy several smaller contracts. From what I understand the advantage of buying a large contract is that the price per point is generally lower - is that correct?

I am having some trouble with the use year:
Months With High Likelihood of Travel:
March
May
June
October

Months With Middle Likelihood of Travel:
January
February
April
November
December

Months With Little to No Likelihood of Travel:
July
August
September

Based on the fact that there is a small possibility we would want to go next March, I think we need to get a March use year, but if I am missing something obvious, please let me know.


Update 6/5:
Dad and I sat down together yesterday to go over everything you all said in the thread and the spreadsheet I put together going over various options and costs. We have made a lot of changes to our plans that we would like to get feedback on.

Even though he thought he wanted a Grand Villa every three years, based on your feedback and my research, he now wants to buy enough points to do either a one-bedroom and two studios or two-bedroom and one studio every other year. Even if we don’t end up taking another big three family trip after the trip in 2022, he wants the option to go again as a big family OR to rent/gift points to my stepbrother and/or me OR take a trip with just my stepmom.

Here is the big surprise: we didn’t include it in our original search because it doesn’t have Grand Villas, but once we no longer needed a GV, we expanded our search and he has fallen in love with Beach Club. That is where he wants to own and stay. So BCV it is!

We are back to use year discussion and after discussing more in depth with Dad, I think we need to look for a very different use year than what we were originally thinking.

High likelihood of travel:
June - this is his first choice
October - this is second choice

Medium likelihood of travel:
January
February
May
July
August
September
November
December

Very Low likelihood of Travel:
March
April

Based on this, I think we need to look for a June use year, but if I am missing something, let me know.

 

[princesscinderella]

I think you would want an October UY based on your travel dates, although June trips would be out of your banking window. March UY would work too but any travel between Nov - Feb would be out of your banking window. The hard part for you is that if you needed to cancel outside of your banking window you would have a lot of points to use up quickly because the borrowed points can’t be put back and the banked points will expire. if you think you would book more in the spring than the fall I’d pick March, if you would book October and later more I’d pick October. A large contract can be had for a bit cheaper on the resale market but I’d recommend getting two smaller point (160 pt) contracts because if you wanted to downsize you could do so without selling everything. Once you decide UY look at the point chart of the resort you pick and the times of year you plan to stay and calculate out how much you would need. BLT will require more than BWV but has a longer contract. SSR and AKV have similar point charts. The Jambo house grand villas are really nice.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I started out thinking March would be the best based on the highest likelihood but then it headed into the middle likelihood and that no longer made sense. October is probably the best in a case like yours to give you some free insurance in case of a last minute cancellation. It leaves June as the iffy bit but if you cancelled 30 days or more out you'd still be in your banking window to move some points to the next UY. Traveling every 3rd year you're always going to have some risk on the banked and borrowed points with cancellations. Summer has historically had a decent amount of availability longer than other times so it would be likely you could rent out points if the need ever happened.

So I'd select October if possible. October is also currently in it's 2020 UY. For a March 2022 trip you could use banked 2020 points, current Oct 2021 points and borrow Oct 2022 points so you'd need to locate a resale contract where the owner has already banked the 2020 points into the 2021 UY. That may or may not be difficult - it'll take finding the right contract(s) available for sale that you need right now. Oct is fairly rare for BLT. They're easier to find for SSR and AKV out of the resorts you listed.

 

[RoseGold]

Bigger contracts do better to a point, but not that big. Mine are all 200-ish, and they are optimal math deals. There's no reason you can't do this with two 200 point contracts, or a 175 and a 225.

To get that BW GV, you absolutely have to own there. The others (at least pre-Covid) had some give off peak. March is peak. It's worth noting October is peak for DVC, because of the charts, and I'd argue the end of May when school is out for some. I bought a SSR contract just to book BLT GV off peak, which hasn't been a great strategy with all these Covid points floating around.

I care more about math than UY. If the deal(s) works, then you can figure it out with banking and all that. A GV vaca is not something you can just move down the road a few weeks anyway, so I care less about the limited flexibility or banking dates. I'd care more about making a good loaded buy at the right resort.

It's worth talking to a local estate lawyer if you plan to buy this much DVC. It might be worth it to title it to a company or a trust from the jump, depending on the estate strategy. Nobody wants to probate land in Florida when something happens.

For all around value and awesome GV, my money would be on BLT. It's got some great loaded contracts out there, its hard to argue with that excellent point chart on the monorail, and the priority for the GV can be meaningful. Costs a lot more than SSR, but with priority that matters and contract length. I can also make a surprisingly good math argument for BW, because of the legacy chart, assuming you buy loaded. Otherwise, just get SSR and book what you can. AKL wasn't that hard to get pre-Covid, and IMO AKl is overpriced right now.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I care more about math than UY. If the deal(s) works, then you can figure it out with banking and all that. A GV vaca is not something you can just move down the road a few weeks anyway, so I care less about the limited flexibility or banking dates. I'd care more about making a good loaded buy at the right resort.

Buying to stay every 3 years though makes a good UY more important IMO. At least having sometime to rent out points as it is less likely to rebook. If it were buying enough points to book a GV every year then I'd still consider the importance high just for the number of points but not as high as always planning to use banked and borrowed points. I do try and point out that I am one that has twice had trips affected by deaths in the family. Most never will have even a single trip affected but I was very happy to have selected UY based on travel.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

One question for you - what is the plan for left over points? Going ever 3 years is going to leave you some and if you buy enough to accommodate the 50% borrowing restriction it's going to leave more once that is lifted which I do believe will happen but don't know when.

 

[Nabas]

I have always assumed the 50% borrowing restriction is a temporary thing, Disney's way to try to accommodate Guests who were unable to stay in 2020 due to COVID.

 

[10CJ]

Given what you have said about travel I agree with Oct use year.

I think planning to only go every three years can be tricky. Would there be other trips with smaller rooms in between?

 

[gisele2]

Nice , loaded BLT contract here
https://www.****************.com/dvc_listing/bay-lake-tower-320-pts-december-use-year-blt35680/

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

The problem with going every three years is that if your plans change, you can lose a significant amount of points. Let's say you want to go in 2022. You bank your 2021 points. You use your 2022 points. You borrow your 2023 points. If you have to cancel and reschedule for the following use year, your banked points would expire. Your borrowed points cannot be moved back. But you could bank your current year points into 2023. You might be able to reschedule in the same UY or rent out the points to mitigate the losses.

 

[RoseGold]

I think the UY and banking is overthinking this. If you have to cancel a GV vacation, it’s not like you can throw that back together in four months. You’d have to just sell the points.

You could also swap out or leave out a couple people and not cancel.

Booking a GV is a big commitment. IMO that’s not a bad thing, and I don’t think a plan B on a trip of that size is necessarily even possible. And there is a Plan B with renting out the points. Obviously not a great one, but it does exist.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I think the UY and banking is overthinking this. If you have to cancel a GV vacation, it’s not like you can throw that back together in four months. You’d have to just sell the points.

Having a good UY isn't only about being able to reschedule your exact vacation again. More time means much easier to rent also.

 

[RoseGold]

I think the bigger decision is BW vs BLT vs SSR. The Boardwalk and to a lesser degree BLT contracts are going to be harder to buy well, and in that context I care less about UY. The SSR, sure, you can get whatever you want.

 

[DVCanadian]

as mentioned the 50% borrow limit is temporary. You only need to buy 275 points.

It's worth talking to a local estate lawyer if you plan to buy this much DVC. It might be worth it to title it to a company or a trust from the jump, depending on the estate strategy. Nobody wants to probate land in Florida when something happens.

not sure I understand why a lawyer is needed. 275-300 points is not a lot and if it makes sense for a lot of points, it would sense for any purchase.

 

[supersnoop]

Months With Little to No Likelihood of Travel:
July
August
September

Based on this, I'd go with an October use year.

 

[crisi]

The problem with going every three years is that if your plans change, you can lose a significant amount of points. Let's say you want to go in 2022. You bank your 2021 points. You use your 2022 points. You borrow your 2023 points. If you have to cancel and reschedule for the following use year, your banked points would expire. Your borrowed points cannot be moved back. But you could bank your current year points into 2023. You might be able to reschedule in the same UY or rent out the points to mitigate the losses.

Yep....have a plan for using extra points. What happens when you can't go. REALLY understand banking and borrowing rules, so you understand what happens if you decide to rent out points. You really need to understand availability patterns as well, not just for Grand Villas, but for other units when your GV plans fall through.

We are every other year people, and that worked fine until Covid - now I'll waste points - which to me isn't a big deal. I wouldn't do every three years - its a lot of mental gymnastics to make sure you aren't losing points. And I especially wouldn't do every three years with a Grand Villa in mind - there are just way to many things that go wrong when booking GVs (let me tell you about the time four of us rattled around in a Grand Villa because one of our guests passed away three months before the trip).

You definitely don't want BWV - the Grand Villas there tend to book up very quickly - quicker than the other resorts - which limits your flexibility.

 

[crisi]

Oh, your last sentence - use year has nothing to do with when you travel. It has to do with when your points arrive in your account and when they expire and the dates on which you need to bank. If there is the small possibility you will go next March - well....Its basically June already. You have two months to get a contract, make the decision and book. And BWV is likely booked already. Plan on DVC being a "we make plans a year out, we book eleven months out, and sometimes we switch at seven months out." There is little room - especially in an every three year plan, for "we might go next March" in June.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I'd never plan on only going every three years. If you can only borrow 50% (they could make this a real forever thing), you'd always lose half a year's points unless you booked a trip in the second year instead of the third. Like Crisi says, if life throws a wrench into your plans, you could be left having lots of points to waste. You cannot unborrow points you borrowed to make that every three year trip (unborrowing was a one time thing after covid). Trying to book a trip later in your UY might be next to impossible especially if you are less than seven months out from a new trip. Or that GV is no longer available because they don't have that many at your resort.

I have six points between two memberships that were banked from 2020 and we may be cancelling our 2021 trips if they don't get Florida Resident APs soon. I'm trying to figure out how to still use those points and not buy park admission.

 

[RoseGold]

not sure I understand why a lawyer is needed. 275-300 points is not a lot and if it makes sense for a lot of points, it would sense for any purchase.

Depends on your exit strategy. If you plan to pass this down, yes, I think it's worth titling 50K in Florida real estate correctly from the start.

 

[mrsclark]

Bigger contracts do better to a point, but not that big. Mine are all 200-ish, and they are optimal math deals. There's no reason you can't do this with two 200 point contracts, or a 175 and a 225.

To get that BW GV, you absolutely have to own there. The others (at least pre-Covid) had some give off peak. March is peak. It's worth noting October is peak for DVC, because of the charts, and I'd argue the end of May when school is out for some. I bought a SSR contract just to book BLT GV off peak, which hasn't been a great strategy with all these Covid points floating around.

I care more about math than UY. If the deal(s) works, then you can figure it out with banking and all that. A GV vaca is not something you can just move down the road a few weeks anyway, so I care less about the limited flexibility or banking dates. I'd care more about making a good loaded buy at the right resort.

It's worth talking to a local estate lawyer if you plan to buy this much DVC. It might be worth it to title it to a company or a trust from the jump, depending on the estate strategy. Nobody wants to probate land in Florida when something happens.

For all around value and awesome GV, my money would be on BLT. It's got some great loaded contracts out there, its hard to argue with that excellent point chart on the monorail, and the priority for the GV can be meaningful. Costs a lot more than SSR, but with priority that matters and contract length. I can also make a surprisingly good math argument for BW, because of the legacy chart, assuming you buy loaded. Otherwise, just get SSR and book what you can. AKL wasn't that hard to get pre-Covid, and IMO AKl is overpriced right now.

Oh, your last sentence - use year has nothing to do with when you travel. It has to do with when your points arrive in your account and when they expire and the dates on which you need to bank. If there is the small possibility you will go next March - well....Its basically June already. You have two months to get a contract, make the decision and book. And BWV is likely booked already. Plan on DVC being a "we make plans a year out, we book eleven months out, and sometimes we switch at seven months out." There is little room - especially in an every three year plan, for "we might go next March" in June.

After I posted my original, I realized how silly it was to say that we might want to try for March 2022 as we are way past an 11-month booking window and even after buying, closing, getting the points loaded, etc. we might not even make a seven month booking window. So if we decide to go in March, it will have to be March 2023.