Unbalanced Resort Ressies

[Anthony1971]

I don't know if anyone has thought about this, but if BCV stays booked all the time it is gonna take a much harder hit on wear and tear than those resorts that don't fully book up. I wonder if our maintenance dues at BCV will reflect this eventually. Kinda stinks.

All of the resorts need to run at full or close to full capacity or somone is loosing thier points. How the members/guests who stay at a resort however will play a big role in this.

 

[spiceycat]

Disney has the right at 60 days before - to rent thru CRO any and all unused villa.

they do it. that kepts the number up even if DVC member aren't staying there.

Disney & DVC are first a business. They are offering both SSR & OKW for a low price for Sept right now. One to encourage more members and 2, to kept the space filled.

 

[tjkraz]

as far as dead times - well you are only taking about 2 months Sept and Jan.

Well, there are more shades of gray involved. It isn't accurate to simply classify periods as "dead" or "busy."

Right now significant periods like late February/early March, late April into May and August are very overpriced in relation to demand. Crowds during those periods are only moderately larger than off-season periods like January and September, yet points are some of the highest of the year.

As an owner at SSR, visiting during those periods only increases my flexibility. With demand being so low, I have my pick of resorts.

If DVC were to acknowledge this by moving most of October to mid-December into Dream and Magic seasons while lowering the above periods to Adventure and Choice, it would go a long way toward linking demand to nightly point cost.

I don't know if anyone has thought about this, but if BCV stays booked all the time it is gonna take a much harder hit on wear and tear than those resorts that don't fully book up. I wonder if our maintenance dues at BCV will reflect this eventually. Kinda stinks.

Shortsightedness on Disney's part.

High weekend points should still give them 2-day windows to perform regular maintenance on rooms, but the general wear and tear will often be an issue.

 

[salmoneous]

If DVC were to acknowledge this by moving most of October to mid-December into Dream and Magic seasons while lowering the above periods to Adventure and Choice, it would go a long way toward linking demand to nightly point cost.

On the one hand, I completely agree with your basic point. Most of the "problems" we debate on this board result from different weeks have different demands. To be an economic geek for a second - anytime you have greater demand than supply, you need a rationing system. Lotteries, lines and differential pricing are classic rationing methods. All have been used at one time or another at DVC. Being a fan of free market economics, I think what we need is a little more differential pricing. Jack up the points on the high demand weeks, reduce the demand until the supply comes into line. Exactly what Econ 101 teaches.

But once you get past the simple Econ 101 theory, you run smack into the brick wall of practical application. Take a look at the point charts. Is moving things from Choice to Dream or Magic season really going to change behavior? A typical weekday studio goes from 12 to 13/14 points as you move from Choice to Dream/Magic season. If we drop May from Dream to Adventure, a typcial weekday 2BR goes from 34 points to 30. Are people suddenly going to be changing their habits to save those 4 points?

If you want to change behavior, you are going to really have to change the point structure. Throwing October into Magic season isn't going to keep from away from F&W - you're going to have to throw it into Premier. Which is not only going to upset a *lot* of people, but that big a change is going to make rebalancing that much tougher.

As much as shifting demand via point charges appeals to me, I think the difficulties of implementing it are too great.

PS - As a side note, there was a classic article written about an economist who visits Disneyland. He sees the long lines for the major attractions and applies economic models to "solve" the problem. He points out the folly of using lines as a rating method - that's what they do under Communism! Instead, he suggests the capitalist solution of using differential pricing. Instead of letting everybody ride as many rides as they want for one price, charge for each ride. And, to balance demand, charge more for the best rides. You could have various classes of tickets - with the most expensive tickets getting you on the best rides! He wonders why the genius at Disney don't adopt just a system. Moral of the story - freemarket solutions aren't always the best.

 

[jekjones1558]

He sees the long lines for the major attractions and applies economic models to "solve" the problem. He points out the folly of using lines as a rating method - that's what they do under Communism! Instead, he suggests the capitalist solution of using differential pricing. Instead of letting everybody ride as many rides as they want for one price, charge for each ride. And, to balance demand, charge more for the best rides. You could have various classes of tickets - with the most expensive tickets getting you on the best rides! He wonders why the genius at Disney don't adopt just a system.

Back to the 70s and e-ticket rides?? Not.

 

[Dean]

Then it seems illogical to continue trying to apply patterns from other timeshare systems to DVC.

Not at all, Disney Vacation Club is still a timeshare with far more in common with other time shares than differences. And like every time share it will have issues that are common to certain time share groups and different than others. Even for those areas that are different, the other time share will still serve as a frame of reference.

 

[Dean]

As I said, I'm making the assumption that AKV owners will cross over to other resorts just as much as BWV and BCV owners do. That would mean the fraction of rooms available at 7 months at AKV would be equivalent to the fraction available at BWV/BCV. (I realize that may not be the case in the first couple of years, but ultimately I think it will.)

I don't believe that is a valid assumption. I think it's more likely that certain owners will only crossover if they can get certain other options. Thus no real net gain to the seven-month window at that as resorts overall.

I'm talking exclusively about owners at BWV and BCV. If you have more and more people buying BWV and BCV specifically to for the advantage in booking some weeks in October, November and December, eventually you'll have far more BWV/BCV owners than there is availability during those months. Most other parts of the year will continue to be obtainable at 7 months because demand just isn't there.

Any floating week or points style time share has to account for this form of over selling. Essentially every member who buys at these resorts thinks they're buying the prime time. The question is what would happen in this situation for one who bought specifically for those resorts and couldn't get the time. Would they stay at other resorts for the same time would they adjust their times to stay at the resort. I really don't think we have enough information to answer that question and I'm sure it would be a little both.

I think we're closer than you realize.

December already IS a problem. When people are complaining in February that they can't get a room for December, something is broken. There already is far more demand for December--particularly early December--than rooms available. I'm not talking about others trying to get in at 7 months--I'm talking about those who can't get rooms at their Home 8 or 9 months out.

The fix is easy, all they have to do is rebalance the points.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

On the one hand, I completely agree with your basic point. Most of the "problems" we debate on this board result from different weeks have different demands. To be an economic geek for a second - anytime you have greater demand than supply, you need a rationing system. Lotteries, lines and differential pricing are classic rationing methods. All have been used at one time or another at DVC. Being a fan of free market economics, I think what we need is a little more differential pricing. Jack up the points on the high demand weeks, reduce the demand until the supply comes into line. Exactly what Econ 101 teaches.

But once you get past the simple Econ 101 theory, you run smack into the brick wall of practical application. Take a look at the point charts. Is moving things from Choice to Dream or Magic season really going to change behavior? A typical weekday studio goes from 12 to 13/14 points as you move from Choice to Dream/Magic season. If we drop May from Dream to Adventure, a typcial weekday 2BR goes from 34 points to 30. Are people suddenly going to be changing their habits to save those 4 points?

If you want to change behavior, you are going to really have to change the point structure. Throwing October into Magic season isn't going to keep from away from F&W - you're going to have to throw it into Premier. Which is not only going to upset a *lot* of people, but that big a change is going to make rebalancing that much tougher.

As much as shifting demand via point charges appeals to me, I think the difficulties of implementing it are too great.

PS - As a side note, there was a classic article written about an economist who visits Disneyland. He sees the long lines for the major attractions and applies economic models to "solve" the problem. He points out the folly of using lines as a rating method - that's what they do under Communism! Instead, he suggests the capitalist solution of using differential pricing. Instead of letting everybody ride as many rides as they want for one price, charge for each ride. And, to balance demand, charge more for the best rides. You could have various classes of tickets - with the most expensive tickets getting you on the best rides! He wonders why the genius at Disney don't adopt just a system. Moral of the story - freemarket solutions aren't always the best.

So do you think Disney has a sort of an economist that monitors the booking behavior? I'm sure there must be some tracking method in place...but by whom, and who do they give the data too?

 

[tjkraz]

Is moving things from Choice to Dream or Magic season really going to change behavior? A typical weekday studio goes from 12 to 13/14 points as you move from Choice to Dream/Magic season. If we drop May from Dream to Adventure, a typcial weekday 2BR goes from 34 points to 30. Are people suddenly going to be changing their habits to save those 4 points?

Given limited resources (points) available to each member, yes, I believe it would have an impact.

Let's take a member who currently has enough points to visit annually for one week in October and one week in December. Increasing the costs for those two periods may mean that suddenly the member only has enough points for annual trips in October and every-other-year in December. Additional capacity has been created.

Similarly if you're lowering points for February and May, a member whose pattern is 3 weeks in Feb/May every 2 years may have enough for 4 weeks during that same period. Thus demand has increased.

And there's also the psychological impact of reducing points during the lower occupancy periods. I suspect many members currently vacation in that September to early-December window simply because it's so cheap rather than because of Food & Wine or any of the other special events. Give them a better value in May and some will quickly embrace the Flower and Garden fest.

If you want to change behavior, you are going to really have to change the point structure. Throwing October into Magic season isn't going to keep from away from F&W - you're going to have to throw it into Premier. Which is not only going to upset a *lot* of people, but that big a change is going to make rebalancing that much tougher.

As much as shifting demand via point charges appeals to me, I think the difficulties of implementing it are too great.

It's only as difficult as they choose to make it. It could be something as simple as swapping seasons for October and May and swapping early-December with early-February. Heck, you could re-write the entire system without much difficulty.

Putting October into Magic season may not keep many people away from F&W, but for most room types it means a 20-25% increase in the number of points required. Given the same amount of resources, that means shorter stays or other stays sacrificed.

 

[crisi]

I don't think rebalancing the points would help that much over the long term unless Disney made an effort to do it often - or had a really good crystal ball. We travel in early October. When we bought there was no Food and Wine in early October. Disney extended Food and Wine and now we went from a slow season to a busy season DVC-wise. If Food and Wine morphs into something else over the next 30 odd years, it may be more or less popular - or its time could just end. What happens if Disney moves Food and Wine to September rather than having promotions such as "Free Dining?"

Early December has a few Disney fan conventions happening. What happens if MouseFest moves to September?

I remember when the Marathon had very little draw. About a year or two ago I started to hear that the Epcot resorts book up from October through the Marathon.

If the Flower and Garden gets popular (add wine), if they add Chocolate Fest the first two weeks in Feburary - that could change patterns too.

More and more schools are moving to year round calendars, that is going to - over the long term - change people's vacation patterns as well.

Disney itself has a lot of control over crowds without rebalancing points with their events and promotions. DVC has, I suspect, little visability into what's on Disney's drawing board to move crowds. And DVC has NO control over other things - our October trip is based on the kids school schedule.

I also think point allocation is a much bigger deal than its made out to be - lots of unhappy members if they reallocate points, probably some nuisance lawsuits over it, more points on the market - some people willing to let DVC have their points at what they bought them for. If Disney is trying to sell new resorts, the last thing they want is a bunch of underpriced resales hitting the market.

 

[OneMoreTry]

So do you think Disney has a sort of an economist that monitors the booking behavior? I'm sure there must be some tracking method in place...but by whom, and who do they give the data too?

Couldn't they just look at the wait list?

 

[OneMoreTry]

I don't believe that is a valid assumption. I think it's more likely that certain owners will only crossover if they can get certain other options. Thus no real net gain to the seven-month window at that as resorts overall.

Why would AKV owners be more likely to book before the 7 month window than BWV or BCV owners (once the newness of the resort wears off)? I guess we'll see over time.

I think when it comes down to it, the opportunity will always be there for those that are willing to dial a phone at 9am as soon as a window opens, whether it's 11 or 7 months.

I don't think rebalancing the points would help that much over the long term...

Isn't the point structure a significant part of the reason for early December's popularity in the first place? Raising the point requirement there would almost certainly change that. I don't think a major redo would be needed. Just a tweak to make another time of year slightly more popular.

That brings up the question: If the points WERE increased in December, where would they come from? Ie. is there a time of year when the points are too high? OR What time of year needs to be made more popular?

 

[crisi]

I don't think it REALLY is. I think its one of the reasons, but the other reasons are low crowds, good weather, convention events, holiday decorations. Points are low in September and January, and that isn't exactly driving crowds of DVCers to visit at those times of year. Lower points make Food and Wine season a bargain, but people aren't going because the points are low, they are going because its F&W (well, except us). Raise the points for early December or Food and Wine and one of two things happens:

1) Nothing changes because people WANT to be there at that time and don't mind the cost. They'll add points or take shorter trips or whatever.

2) People who purchased the resort for that period of time sell - and those who purchased when points were significantly cheaper, dump their points at a low resale rate.

Add events in September and January that appeal to DVCers and the crowds will move.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I don't think it REALLY is. I think its one of the reasons, but the other reasons are low crowds, good weather, convention events, holiday decorations. Points are low in September and January, and that isn't exactly driving crowds of DVCers to visit at those times of year. Lower points make Food and Wine season a bargain, but people aren't going because the points are low, they are going because its F&W (well, except us). Raise the points for early December or Food and Wine and one of two things happens:

1) Nothing changes because people WANT to be there at that time and don't mind the cost. They'll add points or take shorter trips or whatever.

2) People who purchased the resort for that period of time sell - and those who purchased when points were significantly cheaper, dump their points at a low resale rate.

Add events in September and January that appeal to DVCers and the crowds will move.

I agree, and what would happen if they added huge events to the downtown Disney area, then maybe OKW and Saratoga Springs would suddently be hard to book at 7 mos. This may become a tool to use rather than point restructuring to even out the ressie issues.

 

[crisi]

So do you think Disney has a sort of an economist that monitors the booking behavior? I'm sure there must be some tracking method in place...but by whom, and who do they give the data too?

For the regular resorts - you bet they do (probably not economists, probably statistical marketers, but its the same sort of analysis). For DVC - why do they care?

With DVC they got their profit up front. If you have problems booking what you want, when you want, well - should have planned ahead or have some more flexibility. The program was sold with everything "subject to availability" and even a lottery system available to address just this issue of very popular times of year.

Yeah, they care about our satisfaction, but I doubt they care enough to do something as drastic as reallocate points unless something is in it for them.

By the way, for two years now we've gotten a standard view at Boardwalk eleven months out - without calling day by day - during Food and Wine and Minnesota Educator conference week. We do call eleven months from checkout day.

 

[SuzanneSLO]

For DVC - why do they care?

I agree 100%. As a DVC member, YOU may care that you have to plan farther in advance that you would prefer to book your preferred resort at your preferred time, but why does DVC care whether you book the room or some other DVC member books it?

On these board, I see a lot of people saying they are doing add ons at [fill in the resort name] so that they can use the 11 month window. So the perceived shortage of rooms has some members buying more points. Why would this upset DVC?

When DVC stops selling points, then and only then will DVC care that the points are not correctly balanced.

-- Suzanne

 

[tjkraz]

Personally, I would have no objections to DVC reorganizing the points every 10 years or so. Yes, demand is going to fluctuate over time If DVC wants to respond to that, so be it.

The point charts we have now are based upon 20-year old booking patterns for cash guests. DVC members exhibit different trends. Moving MouseFest to September isn't going to have much impact on early-December at all. You'll still have the holiday decorations, MVMCP, low crowds (with the Christmas vacation looming for schools, that will never change) and other appealing factors.

If done properly, the first change would likely be the most radical. Again, it's the unique tendencies of DVC members that have never been accounted for until now. The impact of special events is secondary.

Adding more special events may tip things in different directions, but that doesn't appear likely. WDW already has dozens of events, big and small. ESPN, Star Wars, soap opera, Flower & Garden, Pirate and Princess parties, kiddie concerts in the Fall, teddy bear events, pin trading events, Halloween party, etc. None of them have reached a level of popularity which would impact room demand. And if one should, it would be a gradual process.

1) Nothing changes because people WANT to be there at that time and don't mind the cost. They'll add points or take shorter trips or whatever.

I totally agree...except for the "nothing changes" part. If people take shorter trips--mission accomplished. That's the whole point is creating additional capacity during the high demand periods.

If people add more points, no problem there either. The number of points at a resort are fixed. High prices should mirror high demand, low prices with low demand.

At 7 months, all bets are off. Any BCV or BWV owner who thinks they are entitled to be able to book their Home resort at 7 months or less is kidding themselves. But to those who want to know why they have trouble booking at 9 or 10 months, the biggest reason is that the point charts are out of whack.

Personally, I don't really care either way. It's six of one, half-dozen of another. The way things stand know, I know there are plenty of periods in the spring when I can use my points to book any resort at 7 months. I've even booked BWV Standard View twice and anticipate doing so again. The only downside is that I'm paying Dream or Magic season points.

If DVC changed the charts to better reflect demand, I'd be paying Adventure or Choice season points for the same dates, with more limited resort options. I could live with that, too.

 

[crisi]

Personally, I would have no objections to DVC reorganizing the points every 10 years or so. Yes, demand is going to fluctuate over time If DVC wants to respond to that, so be it.

But are you the exception?

I'm in IT and I coordinate a lot of change that hits our users. Most of it is eventually positive change - upgrades to Microsoft Office for instance. Sometimes it isn't good change. But it doesn't make any difference - people howl and complain over every piddling little change we make - even if the change is invisible to them. Most people don't like change - its one of the things human beings are surprisingly very uncomfortable with.

The problem is that we have 24 eggs trying to fit in a dozen egg carton. We can't change the carton size, but I really don't think any reallocation of points is going to be sufficient to do anything more than try and fit 18 eggs in that carton - and those 18 eggs are still going to learn that they have to call day by day at 11 months. Yes, six eggs are no longer disappointed when they call, but they are also pissed off that you changed it to make it too expensive to use their points and even have a chance.

 

[girt25]

Personally, I would have no objections to DVC reorganizing the points every 10 years or so. Yes, demand is going to fluctuate over time If DVC wants to respond to that, so be it.

The point charts we have now are based upon 20-year old booking patterns for cash guests. DVC members exhibit different trends. Moving MouseFest to September isn't going to have much impact on early-December at all. You'll still have the holiday decorations, MVMCP, low crowds (with the Christmas vacation looming for schools, that will never change) and other appealing factors.

That's exactly what disney wants.. Somebody to fill the parks, buy food and drinks and mickey shaped products during LOW crowd times. They go out of their way to make those times appealing with holiday decorations, MVMCP, MNSSHP, F&W fest, Flower and garden, free dining, marathon weekend, super soap weekend, etc.

Why would they change the point values that's working exactly the way they want it to work just to suit you?

 

[tjkraz]

But are you the exception?

I'm almost certainly the exception. I've brought up the idea of raising December points before and the response is almost universal opposition.

I DO think it would be serving the greater good--much like DVC's tightening of the transfer guidelines. I know about the whole "morphing points" argument, but similar to this, I don't see how DVC had anything to gain from that rule change. The revised transfer rule hurt well-intentioned members who enjoyed the flexibility of multiple transfers per year while closing a loophole that a small number had begun to manipulate.